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[Father_Brain]

This is just a rumor so far. It could happen, but nothing is confirmed yet. It is based on that Tom Jubert wrote on his resume that he worked on an unnanounced iOS game from Hardlight Studios. Either it is a typo, or Hardlight is working on two games (or multiplatform), or that the game has been completely moved to iOS. Only time will tell =)

It's not just a rumor, I'd say. Jubert wrote publicly late last year about working with Hardlight on their Vita project, but his resume now lists the iOS game as the sole project he's worked on with Hardlight. Moreover, the full resume lists the iOS project as having begun development in August of last year, around the time Hardlight was founded.

Finally, I personally emailed Jubert around the time of the Sega cutbacks to ask about the Vita action/adventure project's status, and while he confirmed it was still in development, his wording, which I wasn't given permission to quote here in full, implied that the project may have been the victim of changes in scope and/or platform. It seems to add up.

 

[Pranay]

SSM indirectly showing disappointment

 

[test_account]

It's not just a rumor, I'd say. Jubert wrote publicly late last year about working with Hardlight on their Vita project, but his resume now lists the iOS game as the sole project he's worked on with Hardlight. Moreover, the full resume lists the iOS project as having begun development in August of last year, around the time Hardlight was founded.

Finally, I personally emailed Jubert around the time of the Sega cutbacks to ask about the Vita action/adventure project's status, and while he confirmed it was still in development, his wording, which I wasn't given permission to quote here in full, implied that the project may have been the victim of changes in scope and/or platform. It seems to add up.

It doesnt add up to me if they started working on an iOS game around August 2011, while months later they still talk about a Vita game. This sounds more like that there are two games in developement, or that the game is multiplatform. I'm not really sure why would lie about this if they didnt even start on the Vita game.

I'm not really disagreeing with you, since it wouldnt surprise me if the game is moved to iOS only. But i just wanted to mention that this is just rumor/speculation is only based on Jubert's resume.

 

[AHA-Lambda]

sorry if old but Jim Sterling may know something we don't. According to him Prototype 2 sold 190k
http://www.escapistmagazine.com/videos/view/jimquisition/5709-Videogames-Are-A-Luxury
(at approx 3:30)

 

[Father_Brain]

It doesnt add up to me if they started working on an iOS game around August 2011, while months later they still talk about a Vita game. This sounds more like that there are two games in developement, or that the game is multiplatform. I'm not really sure why would lie about this if they didnt even start on the Vita game.

That's not what I'm saying. I'm only saying that the iOS game is, in all likelihood, the project that Hardlight was founded to develop, and the only project they've ever worked on (at 15 members, I'd imagine they're too small for multiple projects).

It was a Vita game when it began development in August 2011 (maybe June, actually), it was a Vita game when Jubert made that blog post last December, and it was a Vita game when Hardlight was hiring this past January. But whether as a result of Vita sales, Sega's retail release cutbacks, or both, it isn't anymore.

 

[Spiegel]

It doesnt add up to me if they started working on an iOS game around August 2011, while months later they still talk about a Vita game. This sounds more like that there are two games in developement, or that the game is multiplatform. I'm not really sure why would lie about this if they didnt even start on the Vita game.

I'm not really disagreeing with you, since it wouldnt surprise me if the game is moved to iOS only. But i just wanted to mention that this is just rumor/speculation is only based on Jubert's resume.

Hardlight studio is composed by 15 people

I'm currently narrative designer for a major new Sega IP for Playstation Vita being developed up at Sega's new 'boutique' studio outside of Birmingham. Boutique, for once, is actually being applied quite fairly - this is a bunch of around 15 highly talented chaps and chapesses producing what Sega sorely needs: new, ambitious, home-grown intellectual property.

This guy was narrative designer on the Vita game and now he's the narrative director on an unannounced iOS game. iOS only.

Seems pretty clear to me.

 

[1-D_FTW]

I have 8 nieces and nephews that I see quite often. My girlfriend has been babysitting while in college, and I go with her every time.

I've also been to quite a few baseball games in the last year. I had my 3DS with me, and the only person to even make a comment on it was some macho looking kid who jokingly tried to trade me for it.

Perhaps it is just possible that the general conception that only kids buy Nintendo products is bullshit? I have almost 100 unique Streetpasses, and more than half of them is just from my college, and the majority of the others have beards and other sorts of items that would make me assume they are not children either.

I am not saying for one second that adults buy more handhelds than children. I am merely pointing out that the general consensus that only kids buy Nintendo handhelds is bullshit and needs to die.

I live in kind of a big city. Not the biggest, but one of the easiest to live in. My college just happens to be near a giant business community, and right on the edge of popular tourist spots. I see people every day while at school taking out their DSi or 3DS to take pictures of buildings and other attractions. Just last week I saw this one woman; the thought of seeing a 60+ year old woman with a pink DSi literally made me stop and stare for a second just to make sure I wasn't seeing things.

They're not the only ones, but they certainly buy a ton. All my nieces and nephews (and their friends) have them. Although it's dropped steeply in the last year or two (replaced by you know what). I had one nephew who must of went through 5 of them. Every birthday or Christmas he was getting a new one because it was either lost, stolen, or broken. His streak ended when he morphed to iOS exclusively for handhelds (and ipad 2 in particular).

 

[test_account]

That's not what I'm saying. I'm only saying that the iOS game is, in all likelihood, the project that Hardlight was founded to develop, and the only project they've ever worked on (at 15 members, I'd imagine they're too small for multiple projects).

It was a Vita game when it began development in August 2011 (maybe June, actually), it was a Vita game when Jubert made that blog post last December, and it was a Vita game when Hardlight was hiring this past January. But whether as a result of Vita sales, Sega's retail release cutbacks, or both, it isn't anymore.

Oh, like that, i understand.

Hardlight studio is composed by 15 people

This guy was narrative designer on the Vita game and now he's the narrative director on an unannounced iOS game. iOS only.

Seems pretty clear to me.

I know, but porting stuff shouldnt necessary be that hard. And making a small iOS games could be done with a handful of people.

But i see now that i mixed up two persons. I thought that Jubert left the company a short while ago, and then updated his resume. But i see now that it was another guy who left (Simon Woodroffe).

But we will see. None of the options will surprise me.

 

[jvm]

If you can talk more about 3DS and Vita hardware numbers, would be good

I can't say anything much really. Based on bits of info, my GUESSES are:

3DS = 125K
NDS = 80K
PSV = 75K
PSP = 15K

Those are completely unofficial, and probably have a good ±5K in them. They are just what I said: guesses.

Edit: I should stress that donny2112 works independently to do the predictions thread.

 

[John Harker]

I can't say anything much really. Based on bits of info, my GUESSES are:

3DS = 125K
NDS = 80K
PSV = 75K
PSP = 15K

Those are completely unofficial, and probably have a good ±5K in them. They are just what I said: guesses.

Edit: I should stress that donny2112 works independently to do the predictions thread.

If those are really guesses, you've gotten pretty good at this haha

 

[OldJadedGamer]

So my comparison applies to Vita ww sales and then some.

Edit: I live in Boston. I have literally never seen a Vita or 3DS in public.

Head down to Logan and you'll see a bunch.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

I did what I could about Xenoblade, asking NPD directly for any help they could give. I got nothing. So even though the next column is about software, don't expect miracles.

They wouldn't even confirm or deny the eurogamer story(That the game isn't tracked?)

 

[StevieP]

They wouldn't even confirm or deny the eurogamer story(That the game isn't tracked?)

jvm has stated (i think) that it *is* tracked, but because it's only a single retailer it would constitute the release of a private firm's numbers directly. This goes against the agreements in place.

 

[BurntPork]

If those are really guesses, you've gotten pretty good at this haha

3DS is that low? Nintendo needs a new panic button.

I'm expecting price cut to $150 + SM3DL pack-in at E3.

Vita also... WTF that was my original prediction! WHAT THE HELL MAN

 

[A Human Becoming]

If those are really guesses, you've gotten pretty good at this haha

Do you know something we don't?

 

[jvm]

Do you know something we don't?

I believe Mr. Harker (if that really is his name) has suggested he has knowledge of official NPD Group data in past threads. I've never actually asked, however. Best not to ask.

 

[Ridley327]

I believe Mr. Harker (if that really is his name) has suggested he has knowledge of official NPD Group data in past threads. I've never actually asked, however. Best not to ask.

He's in the know about a lot of things, and it should be kept to that.

 

[bigtroyjon]

3DS is that low? Nintendo needs a new panic button.

I'm expecting price cut to $150 + SM3DL pack-in at E3.

Nintendo has made it a priority to return to profitability this FY after what happened last FY. Further cutting the price and bundling in a highly profitable, high selling game isn't how you go about turning a profit.

Although it really doesn't matter what they do if the economic situation in Europe(specifically the value of the Euro) continues to deteriorate, they'll lose money either way.

Same thing applies to Sony, cutting the price of the PS3 or Vita in the US and reducing profitability will be tough to swallow while they are battling a weakened Euro which will badly affect their sales in their biggest region.

 

[Cheebo]

Nintendo has made it a priority to return to profitability this FY after what happened last FY. Further cutting the price and bundling in a highly profitable, high selling game isn't how you go about turning a profit.

Although it really doesn't matter what they do if the economic situation in Europe(specifically the value of the Euro) continues to deteriorate, they'll lose money either way.

Same thing applies to Sony, cutting the price of the PS3 or Vita in the US and reducing profitability will be tough to swallow while they are battling a weakened Euro which will badly affect their sales in their biggest region.

You also can't turn a profit while watching by the sidelines while the entire handheld industry in America is being eaten alive by the iPad.

At this point I don't think there is anything they can do. In Japan they are fine but in the west the rise of the tablet has rendered handheld gaming all but a obsolete niche.

 

[Infinite Justice]

Do you know something we don't?

He seems to have access to the data.

 

[StevieP]

You also can't turn a profit while watching by the sidelines while the entire handheld industry in America is being eaten alive by the iPad.

At this point I don't think there is anything they can do. In Japan they are fine but in the west the rise of the tablet has rendered handheld gaming all but a obsolete niche.

 

[Eusis]

You also can't turn a profit while watching by the sidelines while the entire handheld industry in America is being eaten alive by the iPad.

At this point I don't think there is anything they can do. In Japan they are fine but in the west the rise of the tablet has rendered handheld gaming all but a obsolete niche.

Unless Japanese development makes a big return to consoles (or somehow actually embraces the likes of Steam) this can be one of the most seriously depressing things to happen in the industry. Well, unless they can remain a sustainable niche, but the later PSP releases imply that isn't the case.

I enjoy the portability aspect just for letting me lay down or sit wherever to play, but this generation they've also been a bastion for great Japanese titles that simply may not have worked on consoles for whatever reason, and are also something of a middle ground between cheap indie titles and bigger console games (though leaning closer to the "cheap indie" side of things). Just having them die off because of the iPhone/iPad hitting it big is just... fucking hell, it almost feels like the industry is moving away from almost any angle I really enjoyed.

 

[AniHawk]

3DS is that low? Nintendo needs a new panic button.

I'm expecting price cut to $150 + SM3DL pack-in at E3.

Vita also... WTF that was my original prediction! WHAT THE HELL MAN

$99.99 3ds, $19.99-$29.99 retail games.

a man can dream. a man can dream.

 

[BurntPork]

Nintendo has made it a priority to return to profitability this FY after what happened last FY. Further cutting the price and bundling in a highly profitable, high selling game isn't how you go about turning a profit.

Although it really doesn't matter what they do if the economic situation in Europe(specifically the value of the Euro) continues to deteriorate, they'll lose money either way.

Same thing applies to Sony, cutting the price of the PS3 or Vita in the US and reducing profitability will be tough to swallow while they are battling a weakened Euro which will badly affect their sales in their biggest region.

SM3DL won't sell as much after NSMB2 releases. Also, 3DS is just going to do worse and worse at this rate. Part of me doubts that NSMB2 will only boost sales for a couple of weeks and that this holiday 3DS will sell significantly less than it did during the 2011 holiday. It's at serious risk of becoming another PSP, except even worse outside of Japan due to the slower start. It's clear that there's no market for expensive handhelds in the US.

You also can't turn a profit while watching by the sidelines while the entire handheld industry in America is being eaten alive by the iPad.

At this point I don't think there is anything they can do. In Japan they are fine but in the west the rise of the tablet has rendered handheld gaming all but a obsolete niche.

Let me guess: if they switch to iOS development they'll make billions, right?

 

[Cheebo]

Let me guess: if they switch to iOS development they'll make billions, right?

No that's why I said I don't think there is anything they can do. There is nothing Nintendo is capable of in dealing in the rise of tablets in the west. It's rendering the handheld game market obsolete here.

Japan is a different story but American consumers have lost interest in dedicated handheld systems.

 

[jman2050]

No that's why I said I don't think there is anything they can do. There is nothing Nintendo is capable of in dealing in the rise of tablets in the west. It's rendering the handheld game market obsolete here.

Japan is a different story but American consumers have lost interest in dedicated handheld systems.

You keep saying these things, and you haven't given a reason why.

 

[clashfan]

I can't say anything much really. Based on bits of info, my GUESSES are:

3DS = 125K
NDS = 80K
PSV = 75K
PSP = 15K

Those are completely unofficial, and probably have a good ±5K in them. They are just what I said: guesses.

Edit: I should stress that donny2112 works independently to do the predictions thread.

I expected PSV sales to be low but is it possible that 3DS are that low? I though 3DS sales are going well?

 

[BurntPork]

No that's why I said I don't think there is anything they can do. There is nothing Nintendo is capable of in dealing in the rise of tablets in the west. It's rendering the handheld game market obsolete here.

Japan is a different story but American consumers have lost interest in dedicated handheld systems.

So, Nintendo's a dying company? The new RIM?

 

[bigtroyjon]

SM3DL won't sell as much after NSMB2 releases. Also, 3DS is just going to do worse and worse at this rate. Part of me doubts that NSMB2 will only boost sales for a couple of weeks and that this holiday 3DS will sell significantly less than it did during the 2011 holiday. It's at serious risk of becoming another PSP, except even worse outside of Japan due to the slower start. It's clear that there's no market for expensive handhelds in the US.

It doesn't matter how many hardware units they sell if they are losing money on each one. Handhelds don't have the attach rate of consoles so it becomes really hard to ever turn a profit on the business if you are constantly losing money on hardware by dropping prices.

So, Nintendo's a dying company? The new RIM?

The difference between RIM and Nintendo is that Nintendo doesn't really have any competition in the dedicated handheld market. The market itself may be shrinking due to competition form other areas but within that market Nintendo will always be king due to their strong intellectual property portfolio and their loyal built in fan base.

 

[Kusagari]

SM3DL won't sell as much after NSMB2 releases. Also, 3DS is just going to do worse and worse at this rate. Part of me doubts that NSMB2 will only boost sales for a couple of weeks and that this holiday 3DS will sell significantly less than it did during the 2011 holiday. It's at serious risk of becoming another PSP, except even worse outside of Japan due to the slower start. It's clear that there's no market for expensive handhelds in the US.

There is no way in hell this happens.

 

[CadetMahoney]

It's clear that there's no market for expensive handhelds in the US.

What is the reason for this, Apple and phone products taking away ppls spending allowance?

 

[Erethian]

There is no way in hell this happens.

Don't worry, this is just BurntPork's thing.

 

[Mpl90]

Don't worry, this is just BurntPork's thing.

Aaaaaaaaah, classic Burntpork

 

[perfectchaos007]

SSM indirectly showing disappointment

I thought they already spent $50 million on a US campaign?
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=462927&highlight=psvita+advertising

I guess the Vita really needs a $500 million campaign

 

[timetokill]

The 3DS should pick up with some more software. Summer will likely be quite slow. And it will always have strong holidays. considering it's strength in Japan, there's no question it will have a solid library with a lot to look forward to.

The Vita's prospects are a lot more dire.

 

[alexandros]

You also can't turn a profit while watching by the sidelines while the entire handheld industry in America is being eaten alive by the iPad.

So true. Up next: console gaming.

 

[Mpl90]

3DS will start doing great from August, with NSMB2. Then, a probably steady release list will help, consideting what's still without a date, and that soon there will be the E3...and then, it'll have a big Christmas with no doubt.

May, June and July?
Eeh, it'll probably be thought.
May could see a little bump due to Purple, and July could as well due to NSMB2 hype, as happened the period right before 3D Land.

 

[allan-bh]

I can't say anything much really. Based on bits of info, my GUESSES are:

3DS = 125K
NDS = 80K
PSV = 75K
PSP = 15K

Those are completely unofficial, and probably have a good ±5K in them. They are just what I said: guesses.

Edit: I should stress that donny2112 works independently to do the predictions thread.

Thanks for these guesses which apparently are very good

 

[BurntPork]

There is no way in hell this happens.

Don't worry, this is just BurntPork's thing.

Aaaaaaaaah, classic Burntpork

Uh... I clearly said that part of me doubts that!

 

[SomeDude]

How many copies has kid icarus sold so far?

 

[Mpl90]

How many copies has kid icarus sold so far?

140+83 = 223k LTD

 

[allan-bh]

sorry if old but Jim Sterling may know something we don't. According to him Prototype 2 sold 190k
http://www.escapistmagazine.com/videos/view/jimquisition/5709-Videogames-Are-A-Luxury
(at approx 3:30)

Prototype- 599.1k (26 days)

Prototype 2- 190k (5 days)

Large decline, despite less days on the market for Prototype 2.

 

[m.i.s.]

What is the reason for this, Apple and phone products taking away ppls spending allowance?

Your Apple hypothesis could be one of many reasons; that parents who would have previously bought a dedicated handheld for their offspring, no longer do so, putting the budget towards an ipad instead. Something that can be justified as an educational and multimedia tool as well as a device that can be used for gaming.

 

[Refreshment.01]

Probably been asked but it's a big thread. DO any of the well informed guys here have made any estimates of the other Hardware sales?

 

[Cheebo]

Your Apple hypothesis could be one of many reasons; that parents who would have previously bought a dedicated handheld for their offspring, no longer do so, putting the budget towards an ipad instead. Something that can be justified as an educational and multimedia tool as well as a device that can be used for gaming.

A big wakeup call happened in previously the most requested Christmas gift from kids every year was whatever the current Nintendo handheld was. For two years now it has been iPad. There was topics about it here for both years when the report came out.

The top sellers on the app store for iPad is full of games aimed at young children like skylanders and educational software. Lots of parents out there having their kids use these things.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

3DS will start doing great from August, with NSMB2. Then, a probably steady release list will help, consideting what's still without a date, and that soon there will be the E3...and then, it'll have a big Christmas with no doubt.

May, June and July?
Eeh, it'll probably be thought.
May could see a little bump due to Purple, and July could as well due to NSMB2 hype, as happened the period right before 3D Land.

NSMB2 is going to be HUGE. Also right after it we have Pokemon BW2, which could push 3DS sales more than some are suspecting.

If I was Nintendo, I'd seriously consider a BW2 bundle preloaded with the new eShop titles.

 

[Pociask]

A big wakeup call happened in previously the most requested Christmas gift from kids every year was whatever the current Nintendo handheld was. For two years now it has been iPad. There was topics about it here for both years when the report came out.

The top sellers on the app store for iPad is full of games aimed at young children like skylanders and educational software. Lots of parents out there having their kids use these things.

As long as the iPad costs 500 bucks, I don't think it matters how many kids put it at the top of their most wanted list. Even if every kid wanted one, how many parents will actually pony up? Of course, Nintendo (and Sony) aren't helping things by releasing high priced portables.

 

[Mpl90]

NSMB2 is going to be HUGE. Also right after it we have Pokemon BW2, which could push 3DS sales more than some are suspecting.

If I was Nintendo, I'd seriously consider a BW2 bundle preloaded with the new eShop titles.

I was thinking something similar.
Pokèmon Trainer Starter Pack

3DS Black with PB2 / White with PW2
Pokèmon AR Shooter installed
Code for downloading at a reduced price the PokeDex Pro.
Price: 200$

In this way

1)Pokèmon fanbase starts building on 3DS
2)White is still not available in US, so it can increase even more sales
3)With the code, people will see the eShop, so they'll have a view of it. And it's even better considering the game will be released after NSMB2, so after the first releases on eShop.

 

[Cheebo]

As long as the iPad costs 500 bucks, I don't think it matters how many kids put it at the top of their most wanted list. Even if every kid wanted one, how many parents will actually pony up? Of course, Nintendo (and Sony) aren't helping things by releasing high priced portables.

Based on how iPad sales alone sell more than the entire console + handheld game market I'd say a decent amount are buying them for the family.

The rumors of a 200-250 7 inch iPad coming this fall aren't going to help matters.

 

[frankie_baby]

I was thinking something similar.
Pokèmon Trainer Starter Pack

3DS Black with PB2 / White with PW2
Pokèmon AR Shooter installed
Code for downloading at a reduced price the PokeDex Pro.
Price: 200$

In this way

1)Pokèmon fanbase starts building on 3DS
2)White is still not available in US, so it can increase even more sales
3)With the code, people will see the eShop, so they'll have a view of it. And it's even better considering the game will be released after NSMB2, so after the first releases on eShop.

Better still don't pre install ar shooter and have that as a code too just to make sure people go into the shop