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[LakeOf9]

The current generation has been a tumultuous, chaotic generation across the board. Xbox has basically thrown in the towel, and PlayStation is still doing great - but whether or not they can match the PS4's lifetime sales of 117.2 million remains to be seen.

The PS5 is currently at 59.3 million. Do you think it can match the PS4?

Below I have provided some reasons that it might, as well as some that it may not

WHY IT MAY NOT
- Console market is shrinking
- Globally, the PS5 has fallen behind the PS4
- Fewer big releases this generation, while cross-gen and service games have eliminated the need for upgrades
- Sony is no longer keeping games exclusive to PlayStation (could lead to attrition)
- Price cut seems very unlikely if not impossible thanks to economies of scale not being achieved on the existing fab processes for the chips

WHY IT MAY
+ In some major markets (US, Japan), the PS5 has outpaced the PS4
+ Major current-gen exclusive titles are yet to hit (including GTA6)
+ PS5 Pro is yet to launch (at an equivalent period, the PS4 Pro had already been out for almost a year)
+ Xbox games ending on PS may cause it to gain some of the former Xbox audience
+ This generation may end up being longer, allowing PS5 more time to overtake PS4

 

[feynoob]

Nope

The economy is shit.

 

[onQ123]

If Sony wants it to , yes but if they feel that it's not worth the manufacturing cost to keep pushing it a few years from now they will clip it's wings like they did the PS4.

 

[Mownoc]

If it has an extra year on the market, no ps6 until 2028, then yes.

It will sell only a little slower than the PS4 in 2024-2027 and the extra year will let it catch up and overtake. But it won't be by much.

 

[MayauMiao]

Doubtful seeing how there are still games coming out on the PS4, and this gen the PS5 delivery is quite lacking.

Plus, Switch 2 will make it impossible for PS5 to achieve PS4 number.

 

[LakeOf9]

Doubtful seeing how there are still games coming out on the PS4, and this gen the PS5 delivery is quite lacking.

Plus, Switch 2 will make it impossible for PS5 to achieve PS4 number.

Switch didn't impact PS4, why would Switch 2 impact PS5?

 

[Cert.in.Death]

No, primarily because Sony itself is not marrying itself to a single-platform model for games distribution.

But PS5 will continue to thrive, generally. But the market has changed around it and its latter years will lag as offerings become more diverse.

 

[MDSLKTR]

Real price drop on base model for GTA season and it just might.

 

[kruis]

I've been gaming since the C64 and this is the most lackluster, boring, safe console generation so far. All the excitement is gone. Sony was cruising on the success of the PS4 but I think sales will only go down from now. The only thing that could save the console industry is GTA 6.

 

[LakeOf9]

The only thing that could save the console industry is GTA 6.

I mean the successor to the presumptive highest selling console of all time is coming next year, that might be able to do something too

Real price drop on base model for GTA season and it just might.

This is what I am thinking could push it past PS4 (if that happens). But if you were to ask me whether or not it would I would still say no

 

[LectureMaster]

I think the revenue in dollars will exceed. At the same point in its life cycle PS4 was regularly $249 or even $199 on sale, while PS5 currently has rather sparse discounts.

 

[Zathalus]

It’s still behind the PS4 and sales are not catching up, in fact the gap is widening. The Pro and GTAVI might close the gap but who knows for certain. I think the sales will end up a bit under the PS4 (114 million?) but it could come in just over the PS4 depending on how big a splash the two aforementioned items make.

 

[Mownoc]

PS5 was only 0.7m behind PS4 launch aligned as of March 2024.

They forecast they will be 1m behind PS4 by March 2025.

If the PS6 doesn't come till 2028 as has previously been thrown around in the past that extra year could easily give another 10m in favour of the PS5.

I don't expect the PS5 to win any year from 2024-2027 compared to PS4 launch aligned but I also don't see it dropping over 10m behind by 2027 and 2028 will make up the shortfall.

 

[apocaliptic]

It will not surpass PS4. Trust me I know. That is why everyone call me Prof. Apocaliptic

 

[DenchDeckard]

I think if it falls behind next year it's joever but I'm not sure.

 

[MayauMiao]

Switch didn't impact PS4, why would Switch 2 impact PS5?

Because Switch was rather new at the time and people were not ready to jump into it after the disastrous Wii U?

 

[LakeOf9]

Because Switch was rather new at the time and people were not ready to jump into it after the disastrous Wii U?

We know that's not the case though, the Switch was selling at a record breaking pace exceeding any other console from launch. It sold 14 million in its first year on the market, and it did so without impacting the PS4.

I think people treat Nintendo and PlayStation devices as complementary, they own one with the other, not one instead of the other.

 

[reinking]

If I am not mistaken it is still ahead of the PS4 in sales compared to the time it has been on the market. However, unless Sony finds a way to discount the price, I do not see it surpassing PS4 in the end.

 

[MayauMiao]

We know that's not the case though, the Switch was selling at a record breaking pace exceeding any other console from launch. It sold 14 million in its first year on the market, and it did so without impacting the PS4.

I think people treat Nintendo and PlayStation devices as complementary, they own one with the other, not one instead of the other.

We'll have to wait and see then.

 

[user friendly]

It's doing well and I'm thinking there's some that are holding off before seeing Pro. Once the Pro releases and Sony drops the price of the slim and GTA6 releases, I think there's a great chance it will sell more than PS4. Jury is still out but I think it's going to be close.

 

[LakeOf9]

If I am not mistaken it is still ahead of the PS4 in sales compared to the time it has been on the market. However, unless Sony finds a way to discount the price, I do not see it surpassing PS4 in the end.

PS5 is ahead of PS4 in US and Japan, but behind globally (and the gap is expected to slightly increase by the end of the year)

We'll have to wait and see then.

I am hoping Sony can rally. They have often had controversial or messy first halves for their consoles, but they really pull together by the end, I hope that's what PS5 is.

 

[Fafalada]

Selling below 100M would require a complete market collapse at this point - PS1 took more than 5 years to reach 70M and it still hit 100M in the end.
But matching PS4 will depend a lot on post Pro price strategy. I used to think they'd go sub 399 after Pro launch, kill of the S market in the process, but now I'm not sure anymore.

 

[reinking]

PS5 is ahead of PS4 in US and Japan, but behind globally (and the gap is expected to slightly increase by the end of the year)

Good thing I threw in the disclaimer. If the internet has taught me anything, it is to always hedge your bets.

 

[LakeOf9]

Good thing I threw in the disclaimer. If the internet has taught me anything, it is to always hedge your bets.

Yes but you deprived me of the chance to clown on you

 

[MayauMiao]

I am hoping Sony can rally. They have often had controversial or messy first halves for their consoles, but they really pull together by the end, I hope that's what PS5 is.

They need a price cut. Its bad enough we have to put up with $70 games, lack of compelling first party titles didn't help either.

 

[Mr.Phoenix]

Yes. Or maybe no.

However, I feel this conversation is being had prematurely.

The PS5 big hitters are still yet to come. And there is GTA6 on the horizon, that will be console-exclusive for at least 12-18 months. And lastly (and most importantly) the PS5 is still yet to see a price drop. Everyone knows that $299 in the sweet spot, I feel that that will happen next year.

People think that the PS5 has had its peak year, I believe it hasn't, (or at least it has one more year that will at least match its sales last year), I believe that the combination of a $299 PS5 (maybe even bundled with GTA6 and the release of GTA6... means the PS5 has some really strong legs yet.

 

[West Texas CEO]

It will get a substantial boost from PS5 Pro sales, so yes.

 

[Fafalada]

PS5 is ahead of PS4 in US and Japan, but behind globally (and the gap is expected to slightly increase by the end of the year)

I don't think that we know this until Q2 report is out. The fact they were at 59.3M(shipped) in March, and PS4 reached 60M (sold) in June launch year aligned, there seems to be very little to separate them either way.

 

[Bond007]

I think it will.
If we consider the PRO as the halfway point of Sony's generation(Fall 2024?) and we have yet to see this console get price reductions or the monstrosity that is GTA- well. Passing it by a small margin seems doable to me.
While PS may be on a 1st party drought, they last few years have been solid in my eyes compared to their competitor. Good games have come first party or not

 

[BlackTron]

I think people treat Nintendo and PlayStation devices as complementary, they own one with the other, not one instead of the other.

I think that is where the real potential difference could actually be. That this time, Nintendo has even more third party games and a smaller power gap than Switch vs PS4, so they begin to seem less complementary and more samey, except one is portable and plays Nintendo games, and the other is stationary and plays Sony games (which also mosey over to PC)..

Of course the PS will always have more power but I don't think the tradeoff will be nearly as severe this time, for example if GTA6 is coming out on current gen then Switch 2 should be able to run it with far less concessions than the first one ran Witcher 3 which IMO is a big deal and a little worrisome while Sony is busy slowly bleeding its IP leverage.

 

[ShadyAcshuns]

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

Globally it is already pacing slightly ahead of PS4, they'll have PS5 Pro this year or early 2025, and PS5 will have an extra year on the market as the main commercial offering vs. PS4 (8 years vs 7 years). Something catastrophic would have to happen in terms of demand and/or supply to prevent PS5 from matching or slightly passing PS4's lifetime by the end of 2028.

However, I do think SIE's porting strategy with PC, and their 1P output potentially lopsided with too much GAAS in lieu of traditional AAA and AA, could cause some drop-offs in revenue from high-ARPU hardcore & core enthusiasts in the latter half of the gen. Which could also cause a few issues with early PS6 adoption rates.

That said, such is just my opinion on how such could play out, and it's nothing that bringing in enough new people couldn't offset and then some. I think next year will be a test to see if any of SIE's policies this gen are having a negative effect on PS5 sales adoption rates; Xbox as a console will likely be completely dead by 2025, but Nintendo will have the Switch 2 and Steam always seems to keep growing. In light of Xbox's decline there is a baseline expectation of what number of new PS5 owners I'd expect to see, so hardware targets set by SIE should be easily broken.

If they aren't, then at the very least it'd suggest (to me) that they're losing potential customers to Nintendo and Valve, despite those two not being direct competitors. We'll see what happens.

I think it will.
If we consider the PRO as the halfway point of Sony's generation(Fall 2024?) and we have yet to see this console get price reductions or the monstrosity that is GTA- well. Passing it by a small margin seems doable to me.
While PS may be on a 1st party drought, they last few years have been solid in my eyes compared to their competitor. Good games have come first party or not

No one wants to talk about this, but what if the extreme scenario plays out where GTA6....just isn't as big a deal as GTA5 ended up being? Like it sells very well, but "does well" as in an Elden Ring/TOTK 1.5, or ~25 - 30 million sales the first year, before slowing down heavily afterwards?

If that happens, then what? I mean PS5/PS5 Pro will still get a huge bump in that first year of GTA6, but what if the post-launch year numbers don't get that evergreen effect? This isn't even a problem specific to Sony/SIE; the entire industry seems like it's hedging all bets on GTA6 to be this monumental monster of a game at launch and for years to come, but even GTA6 will have to deal with some new realities.

Evergreen GAAS like Roblox, Fortnite etc. for starters, or GTA Online providing competition of its own (especially if GTA6 doesn't launch with a new GTA Online). GTA6 is easily going to be the biggest release of the generation, but it's not immune to certain market factors or competition, either. Maybe less affected, but those things are still there.

SIE are probably riding a lot of future PS5 sales on GTA6 being GTA5 v2 but I wonder if they have plans to enable momentum going forward, if GTA6 is closer to a more "typical" GTA or AAA blockbuster in sales ala an Elden Ring or Hogwarts Legacy, and it taps out closer to say 40-50 million lifetime sales across platforms instead of 200 million.

 

[bender]

I think the revenue in dollars will exceed. At the same point in its life cycle PS4 was regularly $249 or even $199 on sale, while PS5 currently has rather sparse discounts.

I don't really remember PS4 being priced that low. Maybe retailer specific? Some MSRP price history (someone in the thread mentioned $250 but that would have been in 2019):

How Low Will the Price of PS4 Go?

PS4 launched at US$399 in 2013 and has since seen two official price drops. First down to US$349 in 2015, and then down to US$299 in 2016. The PS4 Pro launched at US$399 in 2016 and the MSRP has remained at the same level to this day. Of course, there have been deals, bundles and temporary...

www.neogaf.com

 

[Audiophile]

I think so, for multiple reasons:

• It's a near match in sales at a ~50% higher price vs the same period last gen. Once a price drop comes in it'll likely do a good bit better, plus there's PS5 Pro which a lot of folks are waiting for.

• GTAVI is coming and the second half of the gen will be loaded with big First Party titles too.

• This gen for Sony is probably going to run til 2028 (a year longer).

 

[March Climber]

No. The price is still too high, half of this gen has been playable on PS4, and the younger generation of gamers are caring less and less about consoles.

Edit: Maybe, just maybe, GTA 6 can save this from happening. It's the only game powerful enough to do so. It makes me wonder how many generations in the future Rockstar will amuse this idea of delaying PC releases of their games.

 

[feynoob]

Switch didn't impact PS4, why would Switch 2 impact PS5?

Because switch 2 would be powerful enough to run cod.

 

[feynoob]

However, I do think SIE's porting strategy with PC, and their 1P output potentially lopsided with too much GAAS in lieu of traditional AAA and AA, could cause some drop-offs in revenue from high-ARPU hardcore & core enthusiasts in the latter half of the gen. Which could also cause a few issues with early PS6 adoption rates.

Considering how slow their first party output and how fast pc ports is, it could happen.

Their biggest issue is how long games take these days.

 

[Killjoy-NL]

Sure, with Xbox dying, the Xbox userbase has to migrate and they won't collectively move over to PC or Switch (2).

 

[mayham2199]

So many people are still active on PS4 and the sales are so close already I don't see how it doesn't. Eventually those people will leave their PS4 and upgrade to PS5.

 

[ReBurn]

It really doesn't need to

 

[VolticArchangel]

It will cross 120 million+ sold lifetime. No way near Switch/PS2 though.

 

[SHA]

No, games will sell consoles even after Ps6 release as usual but where are they?

 

[EDMIX]

Yes, meet and or beat.

It also depends on when PS6 is announced, but I Think it will keep selling even after so, yes, will beat PS4 sales. GTA6 about to move record units for em

 

[jroc74]

If Sony wants it to , yes but if they feel that it's not worth the manufacturing cost to keep pushing it a few years from now they will clip it's wings like they did the PS4.

Yup.

It seems like once the PS4 hit 100 million, Sony was like ok, cool. Whats next. There wasnt anymore real aggressive price cuts or price promotions the last few years for PS4 before the PS5 launched.

 

[normalguy09x]

Unfortunately the economy, the chip shortage, and lack of price cuts on the ps5 hardware has slightly hindered the ps5 console sales. I believe it will sell over 100 million, but not quite 117 million.

 

[nordique]

Last year I was certain it would pass ps4, this year I’m no longer sure it will

 

[demigod]

It will. Series sales are tanking, those folks will migrate to PS5.

 

[El Muerto]

It will do well but wont exceed total PS4 sales. There's no price cut and really no games compared to last gen.

 

[Aenima]

If they eventully drop the price to something around 300$, yes. But even so it should be around the same as PS4 numbers. With some games being ported to PC and the console more expensive than it was at launch, i dont see that happening. It will reach the 100M though.

 

[vivftp]

Yes, yes, it will sell more than the PS4 lifetime units.