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[donny2112]

Because we've been called out:

"I publish my monthly console and handheld hardware numbers because the NeoGAF guys think it's so fun," says Pachter of the infamous messageboard. "But no one's ever asked to see my annual forecast for all those things. I'm spot on, for my annual forecast. I'd love to see those guys put out a contest for annual forecasts for the next five years and then we'll compare my numbers to theirs, because I've been spot on for five or six years now."

Well, here it is.

Required Forecasts

1. U.S. Hardware sell-through for 2007-2011 (5 years).

2007:
360
GBA
NDS
PS2
PS3
PSP
WII

2008/2009/2010/2011 (separate the years,though):
360
NDS
PS2
PS3
PSP
WII
(next-next-gen systems, if desired)

Totals (2007-2011)


Recommended Forecasts

1. Price changes through 2011.
2. Hardware revisions through 2011.
3. When will the next-next-gen consoles come out?
4. System seller releases and their LTD software sales.
5. Worldwide impacts?


Notes:
1. These 2007 predictions do not override the existing 2007 U.S. Sales thread predictions.
2. It's doubtful that 1) this version of GAF will still exist in five years or 2) that anyone will remember this thread, so just give it your best shot and give good reasons.
3. We will still have 2008, etc. yearly prediction threads, so you won't be held to these numbers for the next five years. :lol


2007 HW Totals through May (in millions):
1. NDS - 2.1
2. WII - 1.7
3. PS2 - 1.3
4. 360 - 1.0
5. PSP - 1.0
6. PS3 - 0.7
7. GBA - 0.6


P.S. The one I did took a couple of days and is long. :lol I'll post some of the summaries and the yearly breakdowns with graphs here, and, yes, I can guarantee you that I'll be wrong.

 

[Sule]

The gloves have come off, Pachter's going down. Will be fun to look back in 5 years. Also, keep the official production forecasts in mind when doing your own.

 

[donny2112]

Access the full report here.

donny2112 from the NeoGAF Analyst Group has released his 5-year forecast for the U.S. video game hardware market covering 2007 through 2011. According to Mr. 2112's report, the market in 2011 will show Nintendo's Wii in 1st place with 44% marketshare, Microsoft's 360 in 2nd with 31% marketshare, and Sony's PS3 in third with 25% of the market. Overall, Mr. 2112 expects this generation to be longer than previous generations due to the higher starting prices for the 360 and the PS3 and extended shortages of Nintendo's Wii into 2009 due to its international success which allows Nintendo to delay price cuts in the U.S.

Total by end of 2011:
WII: 34.1 million
360: 24.4 million
PS3: 19.4 million

Mr. 2112 expects the Nintendo DS to have claimed approximately 65% of the next-gen handheld market by the end of 2011 with 45 million of the console being sold in the U.S. Sony's PSP also was able to sell a respectable 24 million by 2011 for a 35% marketshare. This was generally considered a success because 1) it was the most significant in-road against a Nintendo handheld in the U.S. and 2) the PSP hardware was profitable for the majority of its lifespan. This helped offset the losses from the PS3 for Sony's gaming division.

Total yearly HW in the U.S.

(in millions)

2007
NDS: 7.6
WII: 5.4
360: 4.6
PS2: 4.1
PSP: 3.3
PS3: 2.6
GBA: 1.5

Total: 29.1 million


2008
NDS: 7.1
WII: 6.3
PS2: 4.5
360: 4.2
PS3: 3.3
PSP: 3.0

Total: 28.4 million


2009
NDS: 8.1
WII: 7.2
PS3: 4.4
360: 4.1
PSP: 3.6
PS2: 3.6

Total: 31 million


2010
NDS: 7.8
WII: 7.5
PS3: 4.1
360: 4.0
PSP: 4.0
PS2: 2.2

Total: 29.6 million


2011
WII: 6.6
NDS: 5.7
PS3: 4.3
PSP: 3.7
360: 3.0
PS2: 1.1

Total: 24.4 million


Totals (2007-2011)
NDS: 36.3 million (45.4 LTD)
WII: 33.0 million (34.1 LTD)
360: 19.9 million (24.4 LTD)
PS3: 18.7 million (19.4 LTD)
PSP: 17.6 million (24.3 LTD)
PS2: 15.5 million (52.6 LTD)
GBA: ~2 million (~37 LTD)


Edit:

Also, keep the official production forecasts in mind when doing your own.

I'm expecting Nintendo to up production of the Wii to 20 million per year for FY08, which is why it won't be consistently "in stock" in the U.S. until 2009.

 

[fernoca]

Just too early.. :lol

But Pachter has an account, so maybe he will reply in this thread.

 

[devilscallmedad]

2007
DS: 6.5
Wii: 6.1
360: 5.0
PS2: 4.2
PS3: 3.0
PSP: 3.5
GBA: 1.6

2008
DS: 6.2
Wii: 6.5
360: 5.5
PS2: 2.8
PS3: 4.0
PSP: 3.7
GBA: 0.5

2009
DS: 6.0
Wii: 4.5
360: 6.3
PS3: 4.4
PS2: 1.5
PSP: 3.0
GBA: 0.0

2010
DS: 5.5
Wii: 3.0
360: 7.5
PS3: 5.0
PS2: 0.0
PSP: 1.5
GBA: 0.0

2011
DS: 5.0
Wii: 1.0
360: 8.0
PS3: 5.0
PS2: 0.0
PSP: 0.5
GBA: 0.0

 

[Sule]

Just to early.. :lol

But Pachter has an account, so maybe he will reply in this thread.

Yeah, right after he copy-pastes these number :lol And I don't think it's early. This is the perfect time to do it. Why predict when a trend has already established? Predict now, when theoretically anything can still happen, and then you'll know who can predict and who can't. That, IMO, is the purpose of this prediction. Let's separate the men from the boys. Let's separate the Hardcore-sales-age'ers from the Pachters.

 

[BrodiemanTTR]

I fear for the sanity of anyone who does this and actually plans to check back five years from now.

 

[LanceStern]

...

 

[Firestorm]

This will have to be archived. I have no idea on predictions, let's just send the best of the best!

 

[Cheesemeister]

Oh, FFS. Use the parser format. Like this...

[2007]
[PS2] 1m
[PSP] 5m
[PS3] 1m
[XBX] 500k
[360] 20m
[GBA] 10m
[NGC] 1m
[NDS] 500m
[WII] 300m

No decimals, as they'll be ignored. For anything more precise than increments of 1k, simply list the full number.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

This looks fun. Gotta agree on a parser format.

Start with the year like Cheesemeister said, and then follow with the predictions for that year.

Easy enough? Everybody? Anybody?

Also, do not edit your predictions more than a month or so past posting. Since individual posts don't have any sort of wiki-like history, if you edit, nobody will know what you edited, just when you did so, and will likely make assumptions from there. Hence, if you need to update your predictions, do them in a follow-up post, and for good form, state in those posts why you're updating your predictions.

 

[donny2112]

2007-2011

You forgot the totals by 2011.

Totals 2007-2011
NDS: 29.2
WII: 21.1
360: 32.3
PS2: 8.5
PS3: 21.4
PSP: 12.2
GBA: 2.1

Totals by 2011 (devilscallmedad):
NDS: 38.3
WII: 22.2
360: 36.8
PS2: 45.6
PS3: 22.1
PSP: 18.9
GBA: 37.2


The only ones that really stand out as not making much sense to me are the 360 numbers. You have it increasing from 5 million in 2007 to 8 million in 2011, its sixth year of release. PS2 sold > 8 million in 2002 (its third year of release) and never over 7 million again.

Any particular reason you think the 360 in 2011 will catch on fire like the PS2 in 2002 (GTA3 getting very hot, price drop to $199)?

Oh, FFS. Use the parser format. Like this...

...

I don't see this so much as a competition (see note #2) but as a way to discuss how we really think the consoles will do in the U.S. with a critical eye instead of throwing out random numbers. I don't expect there to be too many "entries," anyways.

Thanks, though.

 

[donny2112]

Any other discussion on what we think the U.S. console landscape will look like in 2011, and why you would think that?

donny2112:
Wii - 34.1 million (44%)
360 - 24.4 million (31%)
PS3 - 19.4 million (25%)

NDS - 45.4 million (65%)
PSP - 24.3 million (35%)

devilscallmedad:
360 - 36.8 million (45%)
WII - 22.2 million (27%)
PS3 - 22.1 million (27%)

NDS - 38.3 million (67%)
PSP - 18.9 million (33%)



Can a mod remove the word "Hardcore" from the topic title, please?


Edit:
DSWii60 (from below)
WII - 38.7 (47%)
PS3 - 22.3 (27%)
360 - 20.8 (25%)

NDS - 44.4 (67%)
PSP - 21.5 (33%)

 

[DSWii60]

Just for the hell of it:-

Pre-2007 actual sales:
PS2 = 37.1
GBA = 35.1
NDS = 9.1
PSP = 6.7
360 = 4.5
Wii = 1.1
PS3 = 0.7

[2007]
[PS2] 3,500,000
[PSP] 4,000,000
[PS3] 3,200,000
[360] 4,300,000
[GBA] 1,500,000
[NDS] 9,000,000
[WII] 6,000,000

[2008]
[PS2] 2,000,000
[PSP] 4,200,000
[PS3] 4,400,000
[360] 4,000,000
[NDS] 10,000,000
[WII] 8,500,000

[2009]
[PS2] 1,200,000
[PSP] 3,900,000
[PS3] 5,100,000
[360] 3,700,000
[NDS] 6,800,000
[WII] 9,600,000

[2010]
[PSP] 1,900,000
[PS3] 5,000,000
[360] 2,300,000
[NDS] 5,200,000
[WII] 8,100,000

[2011]
[PSP] 800,000
[PS3] 3,900,000
[360] 2,000,000
[NDS] 4,300,000
[WII] 5,400,000

[TOTAL]
[PS2] 43,800,000
[PSP] 21,500,000
[PS3] 22,300,000
[360] 20,800,000
[GBA] 36,600,000
[NDS] 44,400,000
[WII] 38,700,000

Its all random numbers I plucked from my head. Maybe later I'll come up with something a little more concrete.