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[jarrod]

Too bad we read it first! Reverse-self-owned again! :lol :lol :lol

You're a bit late Mr. Double Standards. Besides, I didn't edit out the mistake, I'm not going to go that low.

 

[JJConrad]

Tie ratio for PSP is higher than DS.
PSP is about 1.8, DS is about 1.4

Do you have a source? Because the the only thing I've seen was comparing the shipped numbers. It was also over a month ago, the PSP total hardware has grown by 35% since that time, while software sales have dried up.

I don't believe the weekly top 5 PSP titles combined have topped its hardware sales since early January.

 

[Tabris]

GTA isn't popular in Japan, and Gran Turismo isn't the huge 4 million seller there like it is here (Though it did reach a million, and GT PSP probably won't reach that because theres like 30 PS2s for every PSP) Out of these 3, the only real blockbuster is going to be Final Fantasy, and even that remains to be seen as Square-Enix floods the market with Final Fantasy 7 cash-ins.

How has it flooded the market? a cell phone game isn't the same market. neither is a movie.

So you have two games. A PS2 Action/RPG game and a PSP RPG game. One console game. One handheld game. One movie. One cellphone game. All 4 different markets.

 

[jarrod]

So you have two games. A PS2 Action/RPG game and a PSP RPG game.

It's actually a PS2 action game and a PSP Action/RPG. The cellphone game is the only RPG.

 

[duckroll]

You're a bit late Mr. Double Standards. Besides, I didn't edit out the mistake, I'm not going to go that low.

Excuse me? Sounds like someone is a little sore from the ownage. :lol

I don't have any double standards at all. I don't go around saying the PSP has tons of awesome games lined up while the DS has none. I just call it as I see it and as of now the only REAL game for either system that can be considered a HUGE title in Japan that we've actually seen anything of is Jump Super Stars. I'm excited for it, but anything beyond that is vapor at the moment. GTA PSP? Nothing. GT4 Mobile? A pre-rendered trailer nothing more. Pokemon DP? No info, no pics. Crisis Core? Nothing but an official webpage. If Nintendo fans that are clearly being biased want to claim that the PSP has "nothing on the horizon" then I must obviously show them the error of their ways, just like if a Sony fanboy wants to claim that the DS is unprofitable and Nintendo is losing money just because the PSP is outselling the DS every week. How is that having double-standards.

 

[jarrod]

Excuse me? Sounds like someone is a little sore from the ownage. :lol

I don't have any double standards at all.

Erm, I didn't say you did. Tone doesn't travel well through the internet, regardless of what you insist something might sound like. Guess you missed the tongue?

 

[duckroll]

Erm, I didn't say you did. Tone doesn't travel well through the internet, regardless of what you insist something might sound like. Guess you missed the tongue?

Oh, I thought the tongue was related to your *cough* non-edit of the mistake. My apologies! :lol

 

[Odnetnin]

I agree. Jarrod is selective in his considerations and GTA PSP is not a fall release, it's a May-July release, with expectations of mid-to-late May.




This is sooo freaking tiresome and a lame argument to boot. Let's use:

1) wayyy early numbers and
2) the slowest time of the year and
3) a system still in it's launch and
4) systems that still have very little software

to predict how things will sell for the rest of the year. :|

I swear it's like someone thinks of an argument 2 months ago and the lemmings hold on to it like it's thier religion. It was an intereresting, but flawed look back then. Now it just shows that many of you can't develop your own analysis and rehash the same thing over and over and over again.

This week to week analysis is a killer. Fun, but a killer. Let's see how numbers work out for a couple of weeks, maybe months before we call it a trend.

NOTE: Odnetnin, this isn't against you, just against this ridiculous argument.

its an approximation based on existing/current data. Unless PSP sales DRAMATICALLY improve over the next couple of months (considering that number is where it's been hovering at; and this is like a lot of gafer have pointed out; WITH PSP FULLY IN STOCK and not sold out as the launch mania peters out)... it will take SONY 1 year to catch up current DS numbers in Japan. I don't see why its ridiculous. The ratio of sales for PSP over DS has been about that number recently - this calculation also doesn't attribute killer titles to DS like JSS + Pokemon + NIntendogs + coloured DS that will no doubt bump sales out.

I wasn't calling it a trend. The numbers are pretty indicative of how long PSP will take to catch up. The margin of error is there but like I said, the calculation is an extrapolation and doesn't take into account any DS sales increases.

 

[jarrod]

Oh, I thought the tongue was related to your *cough* non-edit of the mistake. My apologies! :lol

Eh, I figured it'd be reflective of the entire statement it followed. Otherwise there'd be a break with paragraphs. But whatev, apologies accepted.

 

[sonycowboy]

its an approximation based on existing/current data. Unless PSP sales DRAMATICALLY improve over the next couple of months (considering that number is where it's been hovering at; and this is like a lot of gafer have pointed out; WITH PSP FULLY IN STOCK and not sold out as the launch mania peters out)... it will take SONY 1 year to catch up current DS numbers in Japan. I don't see why its ridiculous. The ratio of sales for PSP over DS has been about that number recently - this calculation also doesn't attribute killer titles to DS like JSS + Pokemon + NIntendogs + coloured DS that will no doubt bump sales out.

I wasn't calling it a trend. The numbers are pretty indicative of how long PSP will take to catch up. The margin of error is there but like I said, the calculation is an extrapolation and doesn't take into account any DS sales increases.

You simply didn't read my post did you? You didn't address any of the issues other than relying on maybe two posts or so of anecdotal evidence that the "PSP IS FULLY IN STOCK". From retailer I've reports I've read, that's simply not true. The PSP is getting regular shipments, but they, to my knowledge, have not gotten to anywhere close to a regular "in-stock" position in Japan.

You also didn't address the crux of my argument which was trying to use two or three weeks of data at one of the slowest times of the year to prognosticate anything is completely foolhardy. The market for either system hasn't reached any sort of stability for you to be able to make any reasonable assumptions. We simply don't have enough data points. The DS could EASILY rebound and have higher sales once the software has any level of depth over the next month or two. The same is true of the PSP.

Of course, you conveniently point out some "KILLER" titles for the DS and assume that the PSP has absolutely nothing in the pipeline. Again, you're simply trying to make your argument using selective factors that work in your favor.

I'm not arguing that the PSP will take 10,20,50 weeks to outsell the DS. Or that the DS is doomed. All I'm saying is that the 5th grade argument of:

weeks to pass = (DS sales - PSP sales as of <X> date) / (this weeks PSP sales - this weeks DS sales)

According to that argument, the PSP would NEVER have passed the DS up until recently. It's a specious argument that simply uses the DS's current headstart and ample supply to portray a view that simply isn't supported by any real analysis. The current weekly sales simply do not give us an indication of what will happen in the future for all of the reasons I described above and that you couldn't address.

Dates          Nintendo DS    Sony PSP       Diff  DS LTD    PSP LTD    Weeks to Pass
11/31-12/05         468,883          0        N/A   468,883          0         NEVER
12/06-12/12         198,892    160,019    -38,873   667,775    160,019         NEVER
12/13-12/19         221,625     85,059   -136,566   889,400    245,078         NEVER
12/20-12/26         396,674    107,217   -289,457 1,286,074    352,295         NEVER
12/27-01/02         209,522    129,957    -79,565 1,495,596    482,252         NEVER
01/03-01/09         108,561     62,052    -46,509 1,604,157    544,304         NEVER
01/10-01/16          53,527     64,602     11,075 1,657,684    608,906          94.7
01/17-01/23          44,608     56,274     11,666 1,702,292    665,180          88.9
01/24-01/30          43,226     74,405     31,179 1,745,518    739,585          32.3
01/31-02/06          29,552     48,781     19,229 1,775,070    788,366          51.3
02/07-02/13          26,205     45,972     19,767 1,801,275    834,338          48.9
02/14-02/20          22,363     38,314     15,951 1,823,638    872,652          59.6
02/20-02/27          26,761     41,867     15,106 1,850,399    914,519          62.0

 

[Hero]

Based on what? Jeez.

Based on the fact that Japanese consumers love 'cute' games? Based on the fact that they're selling three different SKUs with a Pokemon-esque trading system?

Is there any doubt in your mind that this game is going to sell anything less than decent? Or would you prefer getting owned in another software estimate?

The PSP hardware, for one.

I'm not talking about US, as its going to sell regardless. Early adopters and tech savy geeks. I just don't see any concrete upcoming PSP games whereas NDS has multiple things on the way.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Random tidbits from number playing:

Between DS and PSP only, weekly share is 39.0% DS, 61.0% PSP. It's been quite flat for over a month. Since the week of January 17 DS has ranged from 36.3-40.1%, with PSP getting 59.9-63.7%.

If every week is like this week, PSP will meet DS's sales May 1, 2006, when both will be at 3,490,163. On the other hand, if the military prevents anyone from purchasing anymore DSes while PSP sales continue like this week, it will catch up July 31, 2005.
(Yes, I realize this is useless since things vary through the year so much, but hey.)

The ratio of DS to PSP is 2.00089:1. It should be below 2 by next week.

The difference between DS and PSP is 925,611. Very close to 933,779, which was the difference the week of December 20.

 

[AniHawk]

Based on the fact that Japanese consumers love 'cute' games? Based on the fact that they're selling three different SKUs with a Pokemon-esque trading system?

Is there any doubt in your mind that this game is going to sell anything less than decent? Or would you prefer getting owned in another software estimate?

Actually, I'd prefer not to look foolish making wild predictions of a game that has yet to prove itself based on the past, virtually unrelated success of another game.

Mario Kart 64 was a huge success... that means F-Zero X will be a huge success too!

 

[Hero]

Actually, I'd prefer not to look foolish making wild predictions of a game that has yet to prove itself based on the past, virtually unrelated success of another game.

Mario Kart 64 was a huge success... that means F-Zero X will be a huge success too!

I don't see why you don't think Nintendogs will perform well. I didn't say it was going to be the huge seller that Pokemon is, but it will most likely be the best selling NDS game behind Mario 64/Wario Ware/Kirby.

 

[Celicar]

Word of advice: You're not cool.

Nope, but I still have A LOT more money than you. I can sleep easily. :lol

 

[GaimeGuy]

Actually, I'd prefer not to look foolish making wild predictions of a game that has yet to prove itself based on the past, virtually unrelated success of another game.

Mario Kart 64 was a huge success... that means F-Zero X will be a huge success too!

F-Zero X was a million seller...

 

[cvxfreak]

Nope, but I still have A LOT more money than you. I can sleep easily. :lol

 

[Amir0x]

Nope, but I still have A LOT more money than you. I can sleep easily. :lol

Wow.

 

[AniHawk]

F-Zero X was a million seller...

Worldwide? I know it didn't sell a lot in the US and bombed in Japan. Guess Europeans really ate it up.

most likely be the best selling NDS game behind Mario 64/Wario Ware/Kirby.

See this is what I don't understand. Why will it "most likely" be a DS bestseller?

 

[Odnetnin]

Word of advice: You're not cool.

what sort of advice is "you're not cool". "stay in school" is advice. You're not cool is a statement.

CVXfreak - that big rolleyes sure came in handy

 

[Amir0x]

what sort of advice is "you're not cool". "stay in school" is advice. You're not cool is a statement.

CVXfreak - that big rolleyes sure came in handy

The advice is extracted from the statement. In other words, "you're not cool, so don't try to act as such."

 

[krypt0nian]

The advice is extracted from the statement. In other words, "you're not cool, so don't try to act as such."

Someone needed to tell him. It was kinda tragic.

 

[FeedMeAStrayCat]

Worldwide? I know it didn't sell a lot in the US and bombed in Japan. Guess Europeans really ate it up.



See this is what I don't understand. Why will it "most likely" be a DS bestseller?

Yeah, F-Zero X didn't sell overall that much, you're right. I recall the number 300,000 being thrown around for the US, so I'd say probably a little bit more than that overall for the US (since that number came from years and years ago)..

 

[Mama Smurf]

F-Zero X sold just under 384,000 in the US.

I guess if it sold about the same amount in Europe, the rest of the world's sales (inc. Japan) could have added up to 270,000.

I don't think we can be certain it's a million seller though, unless someone has different figures.

 

[sonycowboy]

F-Zero X sold just under 384,000 in the US.

I guess if it sold about the same amount in Europe, the rest of the world's sales (inc. Japan) could have added up to 270,000.

I don't think we can be certain it's a million seller though, unless someone has different figures.

It didn't even come close to the US' sales number in Europe. The installed base there is less than half of the American installed base and the performance was comparatively worse on an installed base level.

 

[Amir0x]

Someone needed to tell him. It was kinda tragic.

But at least he has more money than me! :lol

 

[Mama Smurf]

It didn't even come close to the US' sales number in Europe. The installed base there is less than half of the American installed base and the performance was comparatively worse on an installed base level.

Well I didn't think it did, just responding to something someone else said.

 

[krypt0nian]

But at least he has more money than me! :lol

Yeah he PSPwn'd us all there... :lol