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Media Create (Feb 14-20) PSP IS...
- Thread starter Spiritreaver
- Start date
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
yet a single week of data is uber impressive because the PSP is outselling all of Nintendos hardware?
Just to restate : as doomed as the apparently NDS is, the NDS has outsold the PSP, the old PS2 model, and the new slimline PS2 model since it's launch in Japan.
lol - self ownership is the best! I was basing this off 1.8 million NDS sales, but Media create state different numbers. Still, i'm just trying to point out that fapping over these 1 week data snap shots is somewhat meaningless.
it's like running a marathon and declaring yourself the winner because you ran the 10th - 14th Km faster than the current leader (who is still 8 km ahead), sure it shows a potential trend, but it guarantees nothing. Nintendos sales are already in the bag.
Just to restate : as doomed as the apparently NDS is, the NDS has outsold the PSP, the old PS2 model, and the new slimline PS2 model since it's launch in Japan.
lol - self ownership is the best! I was basing this off 1.8 million NDS sales, but Media create state different numbers. Still, i'm just trying to point out that fapping over these 1 week data snap shots is somewhat meaningless.
it's like running a marathon and declaring yourself the winner because you ran the 10th - 14th Km faster than the current leader (who is still 8 km ahead), sure it shows a potential trend, but it guarantees nothing. Nintendos sales are already in the bag.
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
yeah, see admission of self ownership... but hell, it's close.
I wasn't specifically saying that you said the NDS is doomed, but others have. You did say that "PSP > GBASP + DS + GBA + GC - very impressive." in a declining week for everyone. It just seems a lot of people focus on each week, rather than looking at the bigger picture.
but we'd miss all this FUN!
I wasn't specifically saying that you said the NDS is doomed, but others have. You did say that "PSP > GBASP + DS + GBA + GC - very impressive." in a declining week for everyone. It just seems a lot of people focus on each week, rather than looking at the bigger picture.
but we'd miss all this FUN!
radioheadrule83
Banned
Code:
Dates Nintendo DS Sony PSP
11/31-12/05 468,883
12/06-12/12 198,892 160,019
12/13-12/19 221,625 85,059
12/20-12/26 396,674 107,217
12/27-01/02 209,522 129,957
01/03-01/09 108,561 62,052
01/10-01/16 53,527 64,602
01/17-01/23 44,608 56,274
01/24-01/30 43,226 74,405
01/31-02/06 29,552 48,781
02/07-02/13 26,205 45,972
02/14-02/20 22,363 38,314
Totals 1,823,638 872,652
Code:
PlayStation2 432,091
GameCube 55,428
PSP 400,669
Nintendo DS 328,042
GameBoy Advance SP 148,726
NDS + GBA SP = 476,678
2005 share: Nintendo 54%, Sony 46% (approximations)Because the PSP has yet to launch in either the states or Europe, and these sales trends, it could take PSP a long time to catch up with Nintendo DS. I personally think that PSP will catch up and overtake the DS when big software (like GTA) releases, but it looks like a lot of the ground gained will be in the west. The picture is great for both parties IMO. Depending on how you want to look at it -- have Nintendo lost marketshare, or have they defended inevitable marketshare losses surprisingly well? I think it's the latter. The DS is doing really well, and the gap between DS and PSP is closing as holiday/launch sales declining. DS is still having its time to shine and gather support. E3 should be interesting: Nintendo boasting the biggest userbase, and biggest combined marketshare, Sony boasting PSP success and consistently outselling DS in recent months in order to calve out nearly a 50% share in what was previously a 90% Nintendo market. Those GBA numbers are just the SP model -- truly amazing! It's outselling Gamecube and many other consoles. It's outselling the Xbox by a factor of what? 50 thousand? More? GBA is still selling. A market for cheap handhelds? And jeez... Everyone in Japan must have about 5 PS2s each!
KeithFranklin
Banned
Last years numbers thru this week.
GBA+GBASP 767,501 Revenue at US Prices ~$77,000,000
PS2 631,474 ~$114,000,000
GCN 268,014 ~$27,000,000
XBOX 11,895 ~$2,200,000
This years numbers thru this week with estimated revenue
PSP 400,669 ~$80,000,000
Nintendo DS 328,042 ~$49,000,000
GameBoy Advance SP 148,726 ~$12,000,000
NDS + GBA SP = $61,000,000
GBA+GBASP 767,501 Revenue at US Prices ~$77,000,000
PS2 631,474 ~$114,000,000
GCN 268,014 ~$27,000,000
XBOX 11,895 ~$2,200,000
This years numbers thru this week with estimated revenue
PSP 400,669 ~$80,000,000
Nintendo DS 328,042 ~$49,000,000
GameBoy Advance SP 148,726 ~$12,000,000
NDS + GBA SP = $61,000,000
sonycowboy
Member
KeithFranklin said:
What's the point of the revenues?
Are you using the current exchange rate or from back then? Are you assuming that all of those sales were at the same price (despite the fact that GBA+GBASP were different prices)?
Just trying to understand what you're trying to get at. My guess was to show that Sony had over half of the dollar market share despite having less than that in unit market share.
KeithFranklin
Banned
sonycowboy,
Just trying to show change in revenue year over year. My whole take is that even if DS beats PSP Nintendo will loose revenue and marketshare.
Just trying to show change in revenue year over year. My whole take is that even if DS beats PSP Nintendo will loose revenue and marketshare.
sonycowboy
Member
KeithFranklin said:
Well sure, now that you included some numbers for this year in your edit, it makes more sense.
But playing with numbers is soo much funWhite Ace said:
The aging PS2 console that is supposed to be in its final stretch is outselling both new shiny handhelds in 2005 YTD
Actually THIS would make an interesting wager... will either PSP or DS be able to outsellf PS2 in 2005? Let's assume for this that PS2 will drop to 100$ price point sometime this year too...
sonycowboy
Member
jarrod said:
Cmon Jarr,
Revenue is a very important metric to consider, along with profit, user base, trending market share, etc.
If Nintendo's revenue drops, which it very well could, that spells trouble for Nintendo's profit.
If the market in Japan has not grown much (and so far the handhelds haven't grown the market, although it's admittedly early), then the lower market share Nintendo has, the lower it's revenue from hardware. The lower market share also means lower revenue on the software side, which is much more damaging for Nintendo.
Basically, if their handheld revenue were to fall in half (assuming little market growth in the handheld arena and the PSP grabs half of the market), Nintendo's stock could take quite a tumble.
sonycowboy
Member
Fafalada said:But playing with numbers is soo much fun
The aging PS2 console that is supposed to be in its final stretch is outselling both new shiny handhelds in 2005 YTD
Actually THIS would make an interesting wager... will either PSP or DS be able to outsellf PS2 in 2005? Let's assume for this that PS2 will drop to 100$ price point sometime this year too...
PS2 sales are quite stable and probably have an upper limit of 4-5M (5M would be extremely high) units in Japan. I really doubt either the PSP (which won't have that many units to sell in Japan) or the DS will sell that well.
The GBA was the only system to compete with the PS2 unit-to-unit and that was after a few years on the market.
Well, the idea that revenue will automatically drop seems a bit reaching too right now, it's far too early for any of Keith's commandments to hold weight except one. Nothing's ensured at this point except a drop in marketshare (which could turn out negligible for retaining installed base anyway). Profit needs to take tons more things into consideration, particularly costs per unit (DS cards have substantially higher margins than GBA carts). Again, I'm not taking issue what's possible but rather what Keith maintains is inevitable. A drop in revenue, profit or userbase certainly isn't at this point.sonycowboy said:
SantaC
Member
I am confused what Nintendo really want to achieve with the DS. They have said the DS is a new way to play games, but at the same time Iwata said that it's a 3rd pillar product that he was happy if around 10% liked. So Nintendo was never looking for monster GBA SP sales with DS? I think they also said that the DS wasn't meant to eat into GBA SP sales (or did they say this?)
I'd say strategically DS is 2 things. First and foremost, it's a stall tactic to divert attention from PSP and slow it's launch impact. Second, it's a large scale test market machine to gauge the viability of adding new features to Nintendo's established product lines (consoles & Gameboys). If DS turns out to be a successful machine, great they have a 3rd product line. If it flops, sweep it under the rug with Virtual Boy/Pokemon Mini and start next gen Game Boy PR.SantaCruZer said:
sonycowboy
Member
jarrod said:
Well, I think you're jumping to conclusions regarding what Keith was saying. All he was talking about was marketshare and revenue.
In 7 weeks, Nintendo has gone from $77M in revenue to $61M in the handheld market arena (a 20% drop). And that's with an incredibly strong DS launch in terms of hardware units. And DS software sales are anemic at this point (so are PSP's), so you have to assume much lower software sales.
You're also making a number of assumptions.
1) DS card have higher margin than GBA cards. They certainly have higher prices, but there is substantially more development costs, and especially this early, they are even higher as the DS is a "new" system whereas the GBA developers have had years to develop GBA software engines thus lowering the development costs. Plus, I'd bet that DS sales are much, much lower than GBA (even forgetting the Pokemon game last year). I just don't see the DS being appreciably more profitable than the GBA and my personal opinion would lead me to think that it's significantly less profitable.
2) Nintendo won't necessarily have a drop in handheld revenue. I think it's guaranteed that Nintendo will have a drop in handheld revenue. The GBA was a monster and the DS & PSP have killed it and split it's revenue.
I'm not predicting any doom at all for Nintendo as they consistently produce excellent profits. However, lower revenue = lower profits 99% of the time, especially if the revenue is significantly less.
What will be interesting is if the market does expand and if the DS & PSP can actually increase the pathetically low tie ratio that has accompanied handheld sales historically.
As has been said already, by this time last year, we'd seen the release of a new Pokemon (two titles, in fact) and the first round of Famicom Mini titles. So far this year, up to these figures being counted, there have only been two prolific first party handheld releases - Mario Party Advance and Catch! Touch! Yoshi! Other revenue is coming from hardware and last year's games.sonycowboy said:
sonycowboy
Member
Jonnyram said:
Agreed. However, we were looking solely at hardware sales. While you certainly get a bump in hardware sales as a result of big software releases, the software sales are much higher. I don't think we've even looked at how much the software revenue has dropped year-to-year.
Kung Fu Jedi
Member
These numbers are also a common trend when any new system launches. Usually the new system ships to market, amidst much hype, along with a number of games, which have often been rushed to hit the launch date. Then, there is often a dearth of new software while the rest of the developers finish up their projects and begin to feed the consumers with a steady diet of new games.
At launch, the early adopters rush out to get their new systems and games, often demand is high and supply is low, which helps to build on the hype of the new system. Once the early adopter stage is complete, you'll have more consumers get caught up in the hype, or you have the stragglers who have been biding their time, but eventually, sales slump off as the general consumer waits for price cuts and/or killer apps to pull them in.
The NDS has been on the market longer, had more of the holiday season to sell, and more units in stores. On top of that, Nintendo has a clear track record in the handheld market, which is something that shouldn't be taken lightly in the eyes of the consumer. The lower price doesn't hurt either. On the other hand, Sony clearly has the more technologically impressive product, but is still launching their fledgling handheld system.
Analyzing each weeks numbers is kinda silly. There are going to be trends up and down for these system now sparked by software releases, price cuts, and special promotions. Declaring systems as "dead" four months into a lifespan is silly. There would have been a number of older systems that would have been a lot more dead at this point of their lifespan if these predictions were to be believed. At this point, we all need to chill out, pick a system that has the games we want (or don't) and just enjoy. This handheld war is just getting started, and we the game players are the ones who get to enjoy the results.
At launch, the early adopters rush out to get their new systems and games, often demand is high and supply is low, which helps to build on the hype of the new system. Once the early adopter stage is complete, you'll have more consumers get caught up in the hype, or you have the stragglers who have been biding their time, but eventually, sales slump off as the general consumer waits for price cuts and/or killer apps to pull them in.
The NDS has been on the market longer, had more of the holiday season to sell, and more units in stores. On top of that, Nintendo has a clear track record in the handheld market, which is something that shouldn't be taken lightly in the eyes of the consumer. The lower price doesn't hurt either. On the other hand, Sony clearly has the more technologically impressive product, but is still launching their fledgling handheld system.
Analyzing each weeks numbers is kinda silly. There are going to be trends up and down for these system now sparked by software releases, price cuts, and special promotions. Declaring systems as "dead" four months into a lifespan is silly. There would have been a number of older systems that would have been a lot more dead at this point of their lifespan if these predictions were to be believed. At this point, we all need to chill out, pick a system that has the games we want (or don't) and just enjoy. This handheld war is just getting started, and we the game players are the ones who get to enjoy the results.
And how is revenue guaranteed to drop then? I mean there's absolutely no possible way it won't? How can you ensure that?sonycowboy said:
Well, you need to look at the release schedules. Last year GBA had Famicom Mini round 1, Yu-Gi-OH! 7, Gyakuten Saiban 3, the Famicom Mini SP design and Pokemon FR/LG. This year DS had a Yoshi puzzle game in the same span. GBA had an unusally front loaded 2004, I doubt you'd see GBA sales similarly high in past years for the same period.sonycowboy said:
No I'm not, I'm still allowing room for possibilities, just not inevitabilities.sonycowboy said:
Resource demands on both GBA and DS are so low that's it's basically negligible. Mobile only developers (Gameloft, Interactive Brains, Tasuke, etc) are moving to DS development because it's so low cost. DS kits are actually cheaper than GBA kits. Hell, most DS games don't look far beyond GBA level really, most we've seen are likely converted GBA projects.sonycowboy said:
Also, the margins I mentioned weren't due to higher pricing, in fact DS software is priced identically to GBA in Japan. The increased margins are thanks to manufacturing savings by moving to 3DM from traditional Silicon ROM. The design allows dramatically more memory per wafer, resulting in huge savings and efficiency gains in manufacturing, plus data can be written post production like optical media, meaning an elimination of turn around delays. If you'd like more specifics I'd suggest looking at Matrix Semiconductor's website.
Again, that's mainly due to release schedule. There was far more than just Pokemon fueling GBA sales last year, to reach any well founded conclusions you'll really need GBA sales for the past 4 years.sonycowboy said:
Both are in a post launch drought. Yes it's clear GBA's base is being eaten but that's what tends to happen in Japan when successor platforms hit market. Same happened to PS1. Still, GBA software seems to be continually moving, notably Super Robot Taisen OG2 which had outsold all 2005 DS & PSP releases combined to that point.sonycowboy said:
Fortunately both are far from ensured at this point.sonycowboy said:
Well, market research indicates both platforms attracting a substantially older audience. However both platforms allowing other functions beyond platform specific gaming might make things a bit harder, I sort of doubt them breaking free and yielding console level attach ratios.sonycowboy said:
Thanks for the contribution. Here's the door.Deg said:
sonycowboy
Member
jarrod said:
Jarrod,
Be honest. Do you believe that Nintendo's revenue will not drop this next year?
1) GBA sales in Japan are plumetting
2) GC sales have dropped to their lowest.
3) The DS launch is over and for the DS to make up for the lost GBA sales, it would have to sell 66% of what the GBA sold last year (allowing for the differences in retail)
4) PSP looks to have at least half of the market (YTD, not LTD)
5) What will happen to GBA software sales? Will they be as healthy as last year? The release schedule seems to be much lighther than last year, so the burden falls on the DS software.
I just don't know that they can do it. I won't be shocked if they do, but just looking at it from a revenue perspective, it seems like something of an uphill battle. Finally, I'm not saying that decreasing revenues is a horrible thing. In fact, it's probably to be expected by ALL of the hardware manufacturers. It's a transition year in the handheld market and then the console market's going to be experiencing that as well.
Honestly? I'd say it's likely. GBA had an amazingly strong year last year, 3 Pokemon releases plus the Famicom Mini line was solely attributed to expanding the game market in general, not just for GBA. Like you say, it's a transition year meaning DS will have to slowly build base back up. GBA looks pretty much done with too, it'll probably drop below GameCube levels soon. Then again, DS looks to have some strong releases this year which may perk things up (Pokemon Diamond/Pearl, Rockman.EXE6, Jump Superstars, Final Fantasy III, etc) and software wise it's a much more attractive situation than GBA was for publishers. We'll have to see.sonycowboy said:
However, while a loss in revenue is likely for the year, it's still in no way guaranteed. Which was the core argument here, you seem intent on skirting for reason.
You think Nintendo's revenue will drop this year, but I'm really not so sure. DS has some major killer titles coming out, or so we're lead to believe. GBA is probably on its last legs, but has decent margins now. GC is a wildcard because we don't know the release schedule. Zelda might do some good, but a new Mario would really help out too. And a new GC Pokemon at the end of the year is almost certain.
norinrad21
Banned
I really can not wait for the DS-SP
sonycowboy
Member
jarrod said:
We can't guarantee anything. It's not like we're broshnat.
The core argument is whether or not Nintendo's revenue will drop, not the guarantee.
I think you always think someone is arguing with you, when I look at it as a good discussion :lol
.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Man, the DS/PSP mood is so bipolar. Before they were out the dominant amount of posts seemed to say that PSP would eat DS for breakfast. Then DS launched surprisingly strong and things reversed. Then the holidays ended and PSP began being ahead in the weekly charts and things reversed again. Now they've both dropped a few thousand from the previous week, and a group have turned to worrying about PSP's total sales again.
Based on this week's PSP-DS difference of 15,951 , the projected sales meetup is the week of April 2, 2006; at which point they'd both be at 3,142,505.
Based on this week's PSP-DS difference of 15,951 , the projected sales meetup is the week of April 2, 2006; at which point they'd both be at 3,142,505.
Keith likes the revenues. *shrug* I remember crying foul when he talked about GCN hardware revenue being down when sales increased after the drop to $99. :lolsonycowboy said:
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
The higher the revenue , the more potential for profit IF you have your margins under control. Without revenue of course, you are f*cked. High revenue and bad profit margins, you are equally in danger.
By the sound of it , Nintendo's costs are going down along with their revenue, so it's still possible that they'll post a fairly healthy profit (with that being very important).
Revenues going down could be a sign of a dropping user base, or low sales, or low cost to the consumers... or a combination of a number of things.
It's theoretically possible to have lowering revenues, yet have an increased user base and increased profits.
By the sound of it , Nintendo's costs are going down along with their revenue, so it's still possible that they'll post a fairly healthy profit (with that being very important).
Revenues going down could be a sign of a dropping user base, or low sales, or low cost to the consumers... or a combination of a number of things.
It's theoretically possible to have lowering revenues, yet have an increased user base and increased profits.