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[AranhaHunter]

I accidentally looked at 2011's numbers before making the bet lol

Oh well, luckily it's just an avatar bet.

 

[DaBoss]

MH4 its power.

Will MH3G ever reach 2M?

1,587,556 + 316,487 = 1,904,043

MHP3 Best = 317,793

That comparison is kinda ingenuous. Everyone and their mother and maybe their grandmother had MHP3rd lol.

BTW, where did you get that number? Looking at Garaph, it says 299,000.

 

[saichi]

So it's not possible for Nintendo to sell 500k 3DS both in September and October, then 250k in November and 1 million in December? (going by both previous years crazy sales). And then sell roughly 500k from now till the end of August?

That adds to 2.75 mil... I'm not sure what you are getting at.

 

[L Thammy]

All charts launch-aligned. All data from Famitsu.
Weekly numbers presented in logarithmic base 1,000 for clarity. In that case, zero units are represented by one unit.

Note, since this draws only from the top 30 it does not represent smaller titles.
e.g., software sales of zero are assumed if the console has no games in the top 30.

Tally of the number of titles for that platform in the top 30 for each week.
Certain weeks may have titles that aren't represented. These are the PS3's 7th and 25th, and the Wii's 4th and 23rd.

Feel free to criticize or point out mistakes.

 

[Chris1964]

By saying double you're suggesting 4 million for MH4? Are people still expecting MH4 to sell on the same level as MHP3rd? Months before release we already heard reports that 3rd was the most preordered game of all time. Capcom themselves expect much more modest results too, although they tend to lowball expectations with the franchise.

And the spreading of misinformation in a sales thread continues.

You'll be up for a rude awakening with MH4 sales.

Regarding Donkey Kong I don't see much excitement from retailers. We likely overestimated its potential, others a little, others a lot.

 

[boingball]

Depressing numbers. Vita below 10k again, where it might stay for the rest of the year. PS3 also nearing that threshold, Sony should drop the price. Wii U still stuck in 6k hell. And even the 3DS dropping off.

 

[hiska-kun]

I was expecting Doneky kong selling in a slow pace, no surprises for me.

Nintendo 3DS sold more than 5.5 million units in 2012 amid the social phenomenon of smart devices. In fact, this platform was the only one to break the five million mark except for Nintendo DS in 2006, 2007 and 2008. Considering the sales pace so far and the upcoming software lineup that includes Monster Hunter and Pokémon, Nintendo 3DS is progressing at a fast enough sales pace to aim to sell five million units in Japan yet again.

So, Iwata is expecting to sell at least 3,2 million 3DS from now until the end of the year.

 

[Jamix012]

I was expecting Doneky kong selling in a slow pace, no surprises for me.



So, Iwata is expecting to sell at least 3,2 million 3DS from now until the end of the year.

For my avatar's sake he better be right

 

[Chris1964]

A month extra of higher sales? Even then it isn't likely. Ofcourse with the lack of competition this year 3DS might break records and I'll eat crow.

It's not the lack of competition. 3DS had an anemic first half release schedule. Second half is full of first and third party releases. I expect big things for hardware from Monster Hunter and Pokemon.

 

[hiska-kun]

It's not the lack of competition. 3DS had an anemic first half release schedule. Second half is full of first and third party releases. I expect big things for hardware from Monster Hunter and Pokemon.

I want to know your opinion about Puzzle & Dragons.
Do you thing could be a hit?
Maybe it's too soon to guess... because we hardly know any information of the game. It seems will have similarities with Pokemon, and GunHo expects at least one million.

 

[Thorgal]

quoted myself

FF15 and KH3 +at that pricepoint of 399$ will give it a boost atleast provided they get those out in a reasonable time.

But as i said before :Before TGS any attempt to say wether or not PS4 sells gangbusters or fall flat on its face is just blind shooting in the dark.

That being said . Hypothetically , How well would people here think PS4 would do in the current japan if it launches at 40.000 Yen(399$) and has FFXV out in its launch year And KH3 in its second Year?

(Unlikely i know . but for the sake of argument lets say they pull a mirracle and manage it )

What chance do you give it?

 

[Cosmo Clock 21]

I want to know your opinion about Puzzle & Dragons.
Do you thing could be a hit?
Maybe it's too soon to guess... because we hardly know any information of the game. It seems will have similarities with Pokemon, and GunHo expects at least one million.

I think the target market for PDZ is the people who were turned off due to the always online/smartphone/microtransaction nature of the original game, and what we do know about it makes it seem like a more traditional JRPG. Don't think it will have anywhere near the same 15mil userbase as the mobile version, but I do see it as the first step in branching out to different media formats. Puzzdra anime anybody?

 

[metalslimer]

It's not the lack of competition. 3DS had an anemic first half release schedule. Second half is full of first and third party releases. I expect big things for hardware from Monster Hunter and Pokemon.

You're probably right. Looking back the schedule for the 3DS has been pretty sparse relatively for its status as lead platform.

That being said . Hypothetically , How well would people here think PS4 would do in the current japan if it launches at 40.000 Yen(399$) and has FFXV out in its launch year And KH3 in its second Year?

(Unlikely i know . but for the sake of argument lets say they pull a mirracle and manage it )

What chance do you give it?

Not really a great question because we need to know the rest of its lineup. Having those two would be good, but they cannot sustain a platform and even then it might take a price drop for Japan to really gravitate towards it. With Vita looking grim though, I've been saying the market seems ripe for a 2nd platform to do ok. From 2007-2009 we had the PSP,Wii, and DS all doing well so it would be nice to see something besides the 3DS pull 20k+ a week.

 

[guek]

That being said . Hypothetically , How well would people here think PS4 would do in the current japan if it launches at 40.000 Yen(399$) and has FFXV out in its launch year And KH3 in its second Year?

(Unlikely i know . but for the sake of argument lets say they pull a mirracle and manage it )

What chance do you give it?

I see a 0% likelihood of FFXV coming out this year so I don't think it's worthwhile to entertain the notion.

At 40,000 yen, I see the PS4 doing "ok" respectable numbers for launch in Japan. Personally though, while $400 is a far cry from $600, I think price is gonna be an issue in all markets. We also don't know what the Japanese launch lineup looks like. Currently, the launch doesn't look particularly strong even in the west and there's practically nothing that's really well suited for Japan. I imagine we'll see it get better rounded out with time though.

edit: oh, you said launch "year" not "launch." Well in that case, I still don't see it before holiday 2014 in which case I'd expect it to do pretty well.

 

[Spiegel]

I see a 0% likelihood of FFXV coming out this year so I don't think it's worthwhile to entertain the notion.

At 40,000 yen, I see the PS4 doing "ok" respectable numbers for launch in Japan. Personally though, while $400 is a far cry from $600, I think price is gonna be an issue in all markets. We also don't know what the Japanese launch lineup looks like. Currently, the launch doesn't look particularly strong even in the west and there's practically nothing that's really well suited for Japan. I imagine we'll see it get better rounded out with time though.

399€ won't be an issue in Europe. We are used to buying overpriced PS consoles.

399 sounds about right for PS4 here.

 

[ArtHands]

"Battle for Money" has been announced for the 3DS! Battle for Money is the spinoff show from "Run for Money" (aka "Tousouchuu"). It seems Run for Money 3DS is indeed a huge success as it is very close to half million now, and is the 2nd longest staying title in the sales chart (after Mario Kart 7)

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201306/13034675.html

 

[Sammy Samusu]

That comparison is kinda ingenuous. Everyone and their mother and maybe their grandmother had MHP3rd lol.

BTW, where did you get that number? Looking at Garaph, it says 299,000.

Oh I wasn't comparing, I just thought people would ask for MHP3 Best numbers.

And data from MC 2012, Garaph uses Famitsu.

 

[DaBoss]

That being said . Hypothetically , How well would people here think PS4 would do in the current japan if it launches at 40.000 Yen(399$) and has FFXV out in its launch year And KH3 in its second Year?

(Unlikely i know . but for the sake of argument lets say they pull a mirracle and manage it )

What chance do you give it?

Would just do better than the PS3 initially, but nothing good like the 3DS. I think we're gonna have to lower our expectations for the PS4.

Oh I wasn't comparing, I just thought people would ask for MHP3 Best numbers.

And data from MC 2012, Garaph uses Famitsu.

Oh, you mean the Top 1000 thing?

 

[vareon]

Kamen Rider is strong!

"Battle for Money" has been announced for the 3DS! Battle for Money is the spinoff show from "Run for Money" (aka "Tousouchuu"). It seems Run for Money 3DS is indeed a huge success as it is very close to half million now, and is the 2nd longest staying title in the sales chart (after Mario Kart 7)

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201306/13034675.html

Really interested to see its opening numbers.

 

[Mpl90]

Since it seems it hasn't been posted yet, from the Analyst Briefing

In Japan, it has become a hit with sales of more than four million units. A wide variety of consumers, including women, enjoy this title and it has given great momentum to the sales of Nintendo 3DS. Also, since consumers tend to play this game continually, they actively use Nintendo 3DS over an extended period. This game has greatly contributed to the platform in many ways. The success of this title is crucial for the future of Nintendo 3DS in the U.S. and European markets.

Looking at Famitsu number (retial + retail download cards)

05./06. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2012.11.08} (¥4.800) - 13.346 / 3.621.978 <80-100%>

This means AC: New Leaf sold 378,022 digital units directly on Japanese eShop at least.

 

[Nirolak]

So I wanted to take a different direction and discuss the PS4 for a bit.

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but coming out of E3 the line-up of relevant to Japan titles consists of:

-Final Fantasy XV (~Fall 2014)
-Kingdom Hearts 3 (2015?)
-Deep Down (Fall 2014 at earliest)
-Metal Gear Solid V (2014, but also on PS3)

While these titles strike me as pretty solid overall, they're not exactly coming out near launch.

SCEJ seems to be indicating there's a TGS event coming up, and I feel they need to show a fair number of titles that are releasing sooner - even if they're smaller - if they don't want the system to stall for about a year before it gets going.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

So, Iwata is expecting to sell at least 3,2 million 3DS from now until the end of the year.

With MH4, Pokemon X/Y and Zelda they should reach those numbers quite easily imo.

 

[wrowa]

With the PS4 not planned for a release in Japan this year, I don't think Sony/Japanese developers are in a hurry to announce their Japanese-centric line-up just yet. It's no coincidence that all of the announced Japanese games are titles that are as big or even bigger in the US/EU than in Japan.

TGS sounds like a good place to announce more stuff. I think we're going to see a decent amount of software there, although I expect that most it will also be released on PS3. Maybe we'll get a first glimpse at the next-gen Yakuza.

 

[Meier]

Do we think Luigi will hang around enough to see a Christmas bump and get to over 1m? Might get another bit of a bump when Pokemon comes out and brings in a lot of new 3DS buyers. I could see it making it.

 

[Alrus]

With MH4, Pokemon X/Y and Zelda they should reach those numbers quite easily imo.

Zelda is not coming out in Japan this year though, unless he's talking about the FY.

 

[michaelius]

So I wanted to take a different direction and discuss the PS4 for a bit.

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but coming out of E3 the line-up of relevant to Japan titles consists of:

-Final Fantasy XV (~Fall 2014)
-Kingdom Hearts 3 (2015?)
-Deep Down (Fall 2014 at earliest)
-Metal Gear Solid V (2014, but also on PS3)

While these titles strike me as pretty solid overall, they're not exactly coming out near launch.

SCEJ seems to be indicating there's a TGS event coming up, and I feel they need to show a fair number of titles that are releasing sooner - even if they're smaller - if they don't want the system to stall for about a year before it gets going.

At this moment they don't even know if they will have enough supply to launch in 2013 in Japan

 

[Nirolak]

At this moment they don't even know if they will have enough supply to launch in 2013 in Japan

With their current line-up I can understand why...

 

[Road]

With the PS4 not planned for a release in Japan this year, I don't think Sony/Japanese developers are in a hurry to announce their Japanese-centric line-up just yet. It's no coincidence that all of the announced Japanese games are titles that are as big or even bigger in the US/EU than in Japan.

TGS sounds like a good place to announce more stuff. I think we're going to see a decent amount of software there, although I expect that most it will also be released on PS3. Maybe we'll get a first glimpse at the next-gen Yakuza.

Besides Yakuza, Koei Tecmo (some Musou) and Bandai Namco (some Gundam) probably have something in store for the PS4 to announce there for 2014.

I expect nothing from anyone else (Atlus, Marvelous, Nippon Ichi, Falcom, Level 5? ha ha).

 

[Durante]

With their current line-up I can understand why...

Wouldn't their current line-up make it easier to supply a 2013 Japan launch?

 

[Nirolak]

Besides Yakuza, Koei Tecmo (some Musou) and Bandai Namco (some Gundam) probably have something in store for the PS4 to announce there for 2014.

I expect nothing from anyone else (Atlus, Marvelous, Nippon Ichi, Falcom, Level 5? ha ha).

I'm expecting at minimum that PSO2 from Sega will show up, given the f2p focus out of Sony lately.

Of course, that's already on two other platforms.

Capcom could conceivably have something since they seem to be favoring major event reveals this year and will have a grand total of two upcoming console games by the time TGS rolls around, one of which will be almost out.

Wouldn't their current line-up make it easier to supply a 2013 Japan launch?

Well in some sense yes.

 

[AranhaHunter]

So I wanted to take a different direction and discuss the PS4 for a bit.

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but coming out of E3 the line-up of relevant to Japan titles consists of:

-Final Fantasy XV (~Fall 2014)
-Kingdom Hearts 3 (2015?)
-Deep Down (Fall 2014 at earliest)
-Metal Gear Solid V (2014, but also on PS3)

While these titles strike me as pretty solid overall, they're not exactly coming out near launch.

SCEJ seems to be indicating there's a TGS event coming up, and I feel they need to show a fair number of titles that are releasing sooner - even if they're smaller - if they don't want the system to stall for about a year before it gets going.

Do we know those dates for sure or is that an educated guess? I think the dates will be what you have above, but want to know if there's official confirmation.

I'll copy and paste what I said in another thread:

XBone is a non factor in JP, WiiU is struggling and its big games are MK8 (Spring 2014), Mario 3D (December 2013), SSB (2014), X (2014), Zelda WW HD (Oct 2013) will not have as big an impact until late in the year or next year. Also, the PS4 does not have many JP oriented games right now. FFXIV, FFXV, and KHIII will only be released in 2014 and later. Everything else is more western oriented. Even if they release Hot Shots Tennis/Golf at launch, it won't be enough. Basically the same situation the Vita had. Maybe with 3-5 extra months they will have more JP oriented games on it.

The more I think about it, the more it makes sense to release the PS4 ~March 2014 in Japan. Demand seems to be really high in the US and EU right now and it's imperative that they meet the demand there as those territories are where XBone has the best chance of outselling them. The main challenge in Japan is the Wii, but Nintendo is not being as aggressive as they should, giving them enough leeway to launch in 2014. I won't rule out a mid December release in JP though.

With their current line-up I can understand why...

I assume you're talking about it mainly having a western oriented line up. That didn't stop them from launching the vita.



I actually wanted to see if people think XBone will sell more than XBox - 500k - in Japan and if so, will it reach the 360 at 1.6 mil?

 

[Four_Chamber]

I'm just not at all bullish on the Japanese console market right now and I'm not confident its going to change anytime in the future. 21K home consoles sold in a week is abysmal.

 

[mclem]

Do we think Luigi will hang around enough to see a Christmas bump and get to over 1m?

1M this year, or 1M lifetime? I think the latter is a given, now. The former... it'll be tight, but I think it's feasible if the big end-year releases give it a boost.

 

[mclem]

I actually wanted to see if people think XBone will sell more than XBox - 500k - in Japan and if so, will it reach the 360 at 1.6 mil?

Well, they have to start selling it Japan before that's a possibility...

 

[pieatorium]

I'm expecting at minimum that PSO2 from Sega will show up, given the f2p focus out of Sony lately.

Of course, that's already on two other platforms.

Everything we've heard is pc to ps4 is a super easy transition so i wouldn't expect adding a ps4 version to be as big a deal as normal.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

So I wanted to take a different direction and discuss the PS4 for a bit.

Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong, but coming out of E3 the line-up of relevant to Japan titles consists of:

-Final Fantasy XV (~Fall 2014)
-Kingdom Hearts 3 (2015?)
-Deep Down (Fall 2014 at earliest)
-Metal Gear Solid V (2014, but also on PS3)

While these titles strike me as pretty solid overall, they're not exactly coming out near launch.

SCEJ seems to be indicating there's a TGS event coming up, and I feel they need to show a fair number of titles that are releasing sooner - even if they're smaller - if they don't want the system to stall for about a year before it gets going.

Deep Down wasn't at E3 actually. Capcom had nothing for PS4 in fact.

The E3 lists for Japanese developed games on next gen consoles consists of:

PlayStation 4
A Realm Reborn: Final Fantasy XIV (Square Enix)
Final Fantasy XV (Square Enix)
Kingdom Hearts III (Square Enix)
Knack (SCE / Japan Studio)
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain (Konami / Kojima Productions)
The Evil Within (Bethesda Games / Tango Gameworks)

Xbox One
Crimson Dragon (Microsoft Studios / G-Rounding / Land Ho!)
D4 (Microsoft Studios / Access Games)
Final Fantasy XV (Square Enix)
Kingdom Hearts III (Square Enix)
Metal Gear Solid V: The Phantom Pain (Konami / Kojima Productions)
The Evil Within (Bethesda Games / Tango Gameworks)

Wii U
Bayonetta 2 (Nintendo / Platinum Games)
Game & Wario (Nintendo / Intelligent Systems)
Mario & Sonic at the Sochi 2014 Winter Olympic Games (Sega / Sega Sports Design)
Mario Kart 8 (Nintendo)
New Super Luigi U (Nintendo)
Pac-Man Museum (Namco Bandai Games / Namco)
Pikmin 3 (Nintendo)
Sonic Lost World (Sega / Sonic Team)
Super Mario 3D World (Nintendo)
Super Smash Bros. for Wii U (Nintendo / Sora / Namco)
The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker (Nintendo)
The Wonderful 101 (Nintendo / Platinum Games)
Wii Fit U (Nintendo)
Wii Party U (Nintendo / NdCube)
X (Nintendo / Monolith Soft)

 

[DaBoss]

Should we wait for TGS to get a better picture of how Japanese devs are going to support the next-gen consoles?

 

[schuelma]

This holiday will be interesting to see where the console games go (assuming PS4 is released this year). I get the impression that most Japanese developers are perfectly fine developing for the PS3 a whole longer- best case short term scenario for Sony might be PS3/PS4 releases.

 

[Mpl90]

I'm certainly expecting a Musou coming at PS4 launch: it's becoming a tradition. Look at the recent launches

3DS - Sengoku Musou Chronicles
Vita - Shin Sangoku Musou Next
Wii U - Musou Orochi 2 Hyper

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Should we wait for TGS to get a better picture of how Japanese devs are going to support the next-gen consoles?

Definitely. As of now PS4/Xbone are essentially western only consoles and Wii U's a Nintendo only console.

 

[BishopLamont]

Do we think Luigi will hang around enough to see a Christmas bump and get to over 1m? Might get another bit of a bump when Pokemon comes out and brings in a lot of new 3DS buyers. I could see it making it.

It should hit it before the end of the year, due to Pokemon/MH4 releases.

Definitely. As of now PS4/Xbone are essentially western only consoles and Wii U's a Nintendo only console.

Like I always said, Japanese devs are gonna play it safe by supporting 3DS/PS3 until next-gen ramps up and they get a clearer picture of who's selling and who to support. People kept acting like the Wii U is getting no support and the Xbone/PS4 is getting everything, thats simply not the case. No one is going to go all out on the next-gen consoles until they have a sizable userbase.

 

[BlackJace]

We can forget KH III for the next 2-3 years. The five seconds of footage (was it even real time?) suggests they literally just begun development.

My heart yearns though.

 

[Thorgal]

Like I always said, Japanese devs are gonna play it safe by supporting 3DS/PS3 until next-gen ramps up and they get a clearer picture of who's selling and who to support. People kept acting like the Wii U is getting no support and the Xbone/PS4 is getting everything, thats simply not the case. No one is going to go all out on the next-gen consoles until they have a sizable userbase.

IMO that aproach would put PS4 in the same catch -22 position the vita is in .
having too low a userbase for devs to bother making games for it .yet it needs those games to build that userbase .

While its true that Japanese are allways slow to transition to the new gen ( if i remember right even for PS2 it took 2 years before Japanese fully embraced it) there should be an incentive for the japanese to make the Japanese buy the PS4 from day 1.

Tl;dr they should try to find a middle road so that PS3 still gets most of the support while at the same time not just throwing the PS4 in a corner over there for the first year or two.

 

[BishopLamont]

IMO that aproach would put PS4 in the same catch -22 position the vita is in .
having too low a userbase for devs to bother making games for it .yet it needs those games to build that userbase .

While its true that Japanese are allways slow to transition to the new gen ( if i remember right even for PS2 it took 2 years before Japanese fully embraced it) there should be an incentive for the japanese to make the Japanese buy the PS4 from day 1.

Tl;dr they should try to find a middle road so that PS3 still gets most of the support while at the same time not just throwing the PS4 in a corner over there for the first year or two.

Cross-gen titles. Profit from PS3 while building up the PS4 and maybe throw in a Vita support also if they can.

 

[Thorgal]

Cross-gen titles. Profit from PS3 while building up the PS4 and maybe throw in a Vita support also if they can.

That will work . but they shoud spice it up a little by making some games specifically made for PS4.

not necessarily "Megatons" franchises ( altough that would help) but something thats quite popular in japan and make people jump over .

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

I guess Sony can put a Hot shots on there.

 

[BlackLagoon]

Besides Yakuza, Koei Tecmo (some Musou) and Bandai Namco (some Gundam) probably have something in store for the PS4 to announce there for 2014.

I expect nothing from anyone else (Atlus, Marvelous, Nippon Ichi, Falcom, Level 5? ha ha).

...Compile Heart have stated they're working on a PS4 game.

 

[Thorgal]

Besides Yakuza, Koei Tecmo (some Musou) and Bandai Namco (some Gundam) probably have something in store for the PS4 to announce there for 2014.

I expect nothing from anyone else (Atlus, Marvelous, Nippon Ichi, Falcom, Level 5? ha ha).

...Compile Heart have stated they're working on a PS4 game.

and level 5 is planning a PS4 game.

 

[metalslimer]

We can forget KH III for the next 2-3 years. The five seconds of footage (was it even real time?) suggests they literally just begun development.

My heart yearns though.

It's being done by Osaka (3D) so they've actually had over a year to work on it. I wouldn't be surprise for an early 2015 launch or maybe even a holiday 2014 launch if they really push it.

 

[Chris1964]

I want to know your opinion about Puzzle & Dragons.
Do you thing could be a hit?
Maybe it's too soon to guess... because we hardly know any information of the game. It seems will have similarities with Pokemon, and GunHo expects at least one million.

I haven't followed this game, I don't know.

I actually wanted to see if people think XBone will sell more than XBox - 500k - in Japan and if so, will it reach the 360 at 1.6 mil?

XB1 will be a non-factor in Japan whenever Microsoft decides to launch it.