Support NeoGAF

[Fisico]

My first participation in the predictions.Hope I won't suck (too) much.My robot wars prediction is 100% random by the way.I literally have no idea when those games sell and when they don't.

NDS - Super Robot Taisen OG Saga: Masou Kishin - The Lord of Elemental
PSP - Super Robot Wars OG Saga: Masou Kishin II - Revelation of Evil God


Imo there could be a franchise fatigue, they didn't improve the graphics at all and you need to have played the first two to get the plot, there's also the fact it's the first SRT on Vita, there's a PS3 version but I have no idea how this one will sell as the previous Masou Kishin (and most of the SRT for a decade now) were on handhelds

 

[Moor-Angol]

I went to Akiba today, Dragon's Crown is sold out everywhere, not even a single used copy

Yodobashi Akiba also had all Vita models out of stock

 

[michaelius]

This is a PSP port. The new one releases on november.

For me I'm impressed for some predictions, after Digimon sales. I don't know why is people aiming as high.

Oh my mistake i didn't know they are porting old one in addition to new game. Hmm time to find my prediction and do a small edit.

 

[Law Abiding Stranger]

I would sooner predict that Sticker Star was the game to underperform rather than M&L4.

Sticker Star put off some people?

 

[duckroll]

Do we have any idea of the combined shipment for Dragon's Crown? 100k? 200k?

 

[michaelius]

I went to Akiba today, Dragon's Crown is sold out everywhere, not even a single used copy

Yodobashi Akiba also had all Vita models out of stock

End of heat waves in Japan ? Are pokemon centers full?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

[U][B]Tsutaya Software Sales Rankings (2013/07/22 - 2013/07/28)		Comgnet Software Sales Rankings (2013/07-22 - 2013/07/28)[/B][/U]
[B]01. [3DS] Ace Attorney 5						01. [PS3] Dragon's Crown – 253pt
02. [PS3] Dragon's Crown						02. [3DS] Ace Attorney 5 – 247pt
03. [PSV] Dragon's Crown						03. [PSV] Dragon's Crown – 152pt
04. [PS3] The Witch and the Hundred Knights				04. [PS3] The Witch and the Hundred Knights – 107pt[/B]
05. [3DS] Mario and Luigi: Dream Team					05. [3DS] Mario and Luigi: Dream Team – 103pt
06. [3DS] Youkai Watch							06. [3DS] Tomodachi Collection: New Life – 43pt
[B]07. [3DS] Fantasy Life: Link!						07. [WIU] LEGO City Undercover – 40pt[/B]
08. [PS3] Earth Defense Force 2025					[B]08. [PS3] The Witch and the Hundred Knights (Limited Edition) – 38pt[/B]
09. [WIU] Pikmin 3							09. [PS3] Earth Defense Force 2025 – 38pt
10. [3DS] Tomodachi Collection: New Life				10. [3DS] Youkai Watch – 31pt
11. [PSP] Toukiden							11. [WIU] Pikmin 3 – 28pt
12. [3DS] Danboru Senki W: Ultra Custom					12. [WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Super Deluxe Edition (bundle) – 20pt
[B]13. [WIU] LEGO City Undercover	[/B]					13. [PSV] Toukiden – 19pt
14. [PSV] Toukiden							[B]14. [3DS] Hoppechan: Tsukutte! Asonde! Punipuni Town!! – 19pt[/B] 
15. [PSP] Danganronpa: Trigger Happy Havoc (PSP the Best)		15. [PSP] Toukiden – 16pt
16. [3DS] Donkey Kong Country Returns 3D				16. [PS3] Dead Island: Riptide – 14pt
17. [PS3] The Last of Us						17. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf – 14pt
18. [WIU] New Super Luigi U						[B]18. [3DS] Fantasy Life: Link! – 13pt
19. [PS3] The Witch and the Hundred Knights (Limited Edition)[/B]		19. [3DS] Danboru Senki W: Ultra Custom – 13pt
20. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf					20. [WIU] New Super Luigi U – 11pt
[B]* New releases are in bold						* 1 pt = 1 sale
3DS - 8									3DS - 8
PS3 - 5									PS3 - 5
WIU - 3									WIU - 3
PSV - 2									PSV - 2
PSP - 2									PSP - 1
									WII - 1[/B]

Holy shit could we be looking at a 200k+ opening for Dragons crown (both SKU's)?

Go Dragons Crown. At least there is an audience for these games in Japan.

 

[Hellraider]

NDS - Super Robot Taisen OG Saga: Masou Kishin - The Lord of Elemental
PSP - Super Robot Wars OG Saga: Masou Kishin II - Revelation of Evil God


Imo there could be a franchise fatigue, they didn't improve the graphics at all and you need to have played the first two to get the plot, there's also the fact it's the first SRT on Vita, there's a PS3 version but I have no idea how this one will sell as the previous Masou Kishin (and most of the SRT for a decade now) were on handhelds

Yeah, I still have no idea how much it's gonna sell!

So it's a third game of a Robot Taisen subseries.First game on NDS(~100k), second on PSP(~110k) this one PS3/V.It's the second PS3 Robot Taisen game the first having sold on the 250k area.First PSV game.Bamco's PSV versions of PS3/V games have been pretty successful so far.PS3 has no problems selling some decent software numbers.
Excluding potential franchise fatigue and the previous (and the current one's of course) games' reception 100k is a pretty safe bet imo.If those exist though it can surely underperform as you say.

All this of course from someone with the only contant with the series being the first Endless Frontier game.Feel free to correct anything I have said.

 

[Fisico]

So it's a third game of a Robot Taisen subseries.First game on NDS(~100k), second on PSP(~110k) this one PS3/V.It's the second PS3 Robot Taisen game the first having sold on the 250k area.First PSV game.Bamco's PSV versions of PS3/V games have been pretty successful so far.PS3 has no problems selling some decent software numbers.
Excluding potential franchise fatigue and the previous (and the current one's of course) games' reception 100k is a pretty safe bet imo.If those exist though it can surely underperform as you say.

All this of course from someone with the only contant with the series being the first Endless Frontier game.Feel free to correct anything I have said.

- We're looking only at FW sales here
- The first PS3 game has nothing to do with the Masou Kishin series, it was most likely the highest budget SRT ever developped and it has been postponed for a year, Masou Kishin cannot compare with OG
- The second game on PSP had an SKU with a port of the DS game bundled inside
- The Vita version should sell better IMO, like Toukiden this is obviously a Vita game which was put on another hardware because Vita isn't selling well, but like I said it's hard to say what will be the ratio between the Vita and PS3 version as we have no idea if the SRT audience is on Vita or not, we just know this audience should be used to SRT on handhelds

- 100k seems too much, why should this episode have a better opening than the previous entries ?

- Endless Frontier was a cool game, you should play Exceed

I didn't bother to check the Comgnet numbers btw, does anyone have them ?

EDIT : Found this

12.[PS3]スーパーロボット大戦OGサーガ 魔装機神3 PRIDE OF JUSTICE – 29pt

Vita version doesn't seem to be above 14pt, here goes my prediction of the Vita version selling better lol, 29pt also doesn't seem to be good a few weeks before release for something you expect to sell 100k.

 

[jj984jj]

This is a PSP port. The new one releases on november.

For me I'm impressed for some predictions, after Digimon sales. I don't know why is people aiming as high.

Yeah, and unlike the Digimon game there seem to be more negative impressions for this game to begin with.

 

[StreetsAhead]

I went to Akiba today, Dragon's Crown is sold out everywhere, not even a single used copy

Yodobashi Akiba also had all Vita models out of stock

They should go to Shinjuku or Shibuya. All the stores I have been to today had plenty of copies ad Vitas.

 

[Hellraider]

We're looking only at FW sales here.- 100k seems too much, why should this episode have a better opening than the previous entries ?

Ah, it's 4 days.Thought it was for 20ish days.Yeah 100k sounds a lot.My prediction is 70k now.There is a chance my mistake here might have made the whole conversation pointless...Sorry about that! :S

- The first PS3 game has nothing to do with the Masou Kishin series, it was most likely the highest budget SRT ever developped and it has been postponed for a year, Masou Kishin cannot compare with OG

It still has the "Super robot taisen" name so there is some kind of fanbase overlap even if it is a different series.Although if this one was like the greatest game with an amazing budget while Masou Kishin looks like a handheld port, yeah name won't matter as much as I thought.

- The second game on PSP had an SKU with a port of the DS game bundled inside
- The Vita version should sell better IMO, like Toukiden this is obviously a Vita game which was put on another hardware because Vita isn't selling well, but like I said it's hard to say what will be the ratio between the Vita and PS3 version as we have no idea if the SRT audience is on Vita or not, we just know this audience should be used to SRT on handhelds

I disagree with you here solely based on install bases and the fact that PS3 has already had a SRT game.Although you can indeed argue that the Masou Kishin or SRT fanbase in general might be on handhelds.Well, I sure as hell didn't expect Toukiden PSV to outsell it's PSP counterpart for once.

Endless Frontier was a cool game, you should play Exceed

I would love to.I have to learn some japanese first, though.

 

[Mpl90]

M&L has been underperforming in europe too which is a shame. I don't know... It just seems that a lot of the audience that picked up BiS is just not there anymore.100k units is pretty underwhelming for a debut...

...But it isn't underperforming in Europe. It's high in almost evey chart. You don't remember how BiS debuted, do you?

 

[Exterminieren]

...But it isn't underperforming in Europe. It's high in almost evey chart. You don't remember how BiS debuted, do you?

Quite so. I know the UK games market has fallen off a cliff, but I find it hard to credit that a debut at #3 in 2013 will pan out to be a worse result than #37 in 2009.

I think the crux of the matter may well be that Sticker Star didn't have the series-best performance in Europe that it did in Japan.

 

[Hellraider]

This is a PSP port. The new one releases on november.

For me I'm impressed for some predictions, after Digimon sales. I don't know why is people aiming as high.

Yeah, and unlike the Digimon game there seem to be more negative impressions for this game to begin with.

I see my 125k prediction is the highest so far.Here are my thoughts:
I am not expecting to see a digimon digitize situation.Although to be truly honest I expected digitize to do more than it did.

First, the previous One Piece 3DS game crashed any predictions I had made.It was a compilation of two Wii games and it outsold both of them together.There is no denying there is a fanbase there.
And second, there is also the difference between the 2011 3DS and the 2013 3DS.There is a momentum now and there is also a larger install base.You could say there are more options for gamers to buy a 3DS game compared to 2011.One Piece is a well named franchise.Won't have this problem.

 

[jj984jj]

Ganbarion's Unlimited games had a decent reception with the fanbase though, I haven't read any praise for the PSP game and it sounds pretty awful from what little gathered reading the forums and such. Don't underestimate word of mouth.

 

[pieatorium]

...But it isn't underperforming in Europe. It's high in almost evey chart. You don't remember how BiS debuted, do you?

you should know by now that chart position doesn't translate to sales especially when comparing different times of the year and different states of the market.

Lets look at what else was in the EU charts in q3 2009 when bis released

http://www.chart-track.co.uk/index....p&ct=110015&arch=t&lyr=2009&year=2009&week=41

Fifa
Operation Flashpoint
Need for speed
Layton
Wii sports resort
Halo odst
Gran Turismo
Wii fit
Mario Kart Wii
Guitar Hero 5
Dirt 2
Scribblenaughts
Mysims
Batman
CloneWars
Killzone 2
Kingdom Hearts 456/2
Older Layton
Wii Play
Mario Strikers
Wolfenstein
Brain Training
Call of Duty
GTA IV
etc etc etc

Basically a who's who of the generations best selling franchises as well as recent shooters and the casual DS and music games that were still charging along at the time.

I'm not saying the new one sold worse or was disappointing in comparison, because there is zero data which is why you can't also say it isn't disappointing or has performed better. Until we have data all you can say definitively is that it charted higher.

 

[Madouu]

...But it isn't underperforming in Europe. It's high in almost evey chart. You don't remember how BiS debuted, do you?

Hmm yeah I must've been confusing it with BiS amazing sales in North America. It actually looks like Dream Team is doing better than its old brother in PAL land. Mea Culpa.

Although if we're talking purely in units volume, the difference isn't that high probably.

 

[duckroll]

I just noticed that SMT4 isn't even in the top50 anymore, but... Terraria is?

 

[crinale]

I just noticed that SMT4 isn't even in the top50 anymore, but... Terraria is?

Atlus game (SMT, Persona and such) have not too big but solid fanbase.
I guess people who wanted to buy SMT4 have bought copies already.

 

[Hellraider]

I just noticed that SMT4 isn't even in the top50 anymore, but... Terraria is?

It's still hot outside.People are getting the digital version instead.

 

[Law Abiding Stranger]

I just noticed that SMT4 isn't even in the top50 anymore, but... Terraria is?

SMT games have horrible legs as the game is pretty much aimed to certain audience and that's it.

 

[Moor-Angol]

They should go to Shinjuku or Shibuya. All the stores I have been to today had plenty of copies ad Vitas.

really ? i went on thursday on Tsutaya and there were copies available for both platforms, but today i went to Akiba cause i had to spend a Book-off 2,000yen coupon
i'll take a look tomorrow in Shibuya after school then

 

[SmokyDave]

They should go to Shinjuku or Shibuya. All the stores I have been to today had plenty of copies ad Vitas.

It was mentioned in the 'Capcom turned down Dragon's Crown' thread that the title had pretty much sold out the first shipment in two days.

Edit: I'm not saying you're wrong by that, just that you found copies of a generally sold out game.

 

[Moor-Angol]

It was mentioned in the 'Capcom turned down Dragon's Crown' thread that the title had pretty much sold out the first shipment in two days.

Edit: I'm not saying you're wrong by that, just that you found copies of a generally sold out game.

what surprised me today was the lack of any used copy all around, and i visited Sofmap, Liberty, Trader, Book-Off

 

[SmokyDave]

what surprised me today was the lack of any used copy all around, and i visited Sofmap, Liberty, Trader, Book-Off

Once you grab hold of boobs like that, you never let go.

Or, y'know, some other incentive to replay the game involving XP and stuff.

 

[Frodo]

Or they picked up Paper Mario at christmas and see no need for a new rpg so fast. Mario and Luigi at least in japan seems like it should be doing great.

This is probably having some effect on sales (it is what is happening to me at least, got Paper Mario fro Christmas, so I'm waiting until my budget allows me to pick M&L as I don't see the need to play it this exact instant), also some people might have been burned with Paper Mario Sticker Star as well...

 

[Pie and Beans]

Vanillaware games tend to... ahem.... be a bit long. It may not have been feasibly possibly for most people to have bought, played, and finished it before then trading it in.

It does warm my heart they seem to finally have an honest to goodness success on their hands though.

 

[Fisico]

Ah, it's 4 days.Thought it was for 20ish days.Yeah 100k sounds a lot.My prediction is 70k now.There is a chance my mistake here might have made the whole conversation pointless...Sorry about that! :S

No big deal, there's nothing wrong with talking, and I'm sure a lot of people didn't have a clue about how Masou Kishin III would sell.

I disagree with you here solely based on install bases and the fact that PS3 has already had a SRT game.Although you can indeed argue that the Masou Kishin or SRT fanbase in general might be on handhelds.Well, I sure as hell didn't expect Toukiden PSV to outsell it's PSP counterpart for once..

The two Super Robot Taisen Z-2 on PSP sold more than OG on PS3, the SRT fanbase is clearly on handhelds, that's what my point was about so yes the ratio PS3/Vita will be a total unknown, even for Banpresto I think (and it's probably why their first Vita title is such a low-ass effort, they want to know where their fanbase is, just like they did with the 3DS and Super Robot Taisen UX which probably ended in the 150-180k range)

I would love to.I have to learn some japanese first, though.

You play the Mugen no Frontier games for gameplay and visual pr0n, not really for plot or you're really a weird one

 

[DarkLordMalik]

Or, y'know, some other incentive to replay the game involving XP and stuff.

This has to be it. The Japanese don't mind grinding so perhaps they are busy with replaying the game again for the extras and shizz.

 

[bakman21]

Prediction League August, 2013

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jul 29 to Aug 25):

[PS3+360] Killer Is Dead (25 days) - 47.000
[3DS] Disney Magic Castle: My Happy Life (25 days) - 140.000
[3DS] One Piece: Romance Dawn - Bouken no Yoake (18 days) - 105.000
[PS3+PSV] Super Robot Wars OG Saga: Masou Kishin III (4 days) - 95.000
[3DS+PSV] Conception II: Shichisei no Michibiki to Mazuru no Akumu (4 days) - 44.000
[WIU] The Wonderful 101 (2 days) - 55.000

 

[schuelma]

This is terrible but I really think most people are really overshooting W101

 

[Kid Ying]

The Dragon's Crown hype is getting the best of me. I've found every game from Vanillaware to be boring as all hell, but maybe this one got some boob... I mean, variety.

Also, let's hope people aren't overshooting. I believe 50k is quite possible, even for only 2 days, but let's see. People think there's a big hole because there's going to be a month from Pikmin's release, but i think it's not a big deal. There's time for Pikmin to slow down and to W101 to get a little of traction coming from it. Also, there's Lego (lol) and Yakuza (super lol) in the middle of two to help.

But i don't think much more than 50k is possible. Hope i'm wrong, but i can't see this game getting something like 60k.

 

[Nirolak]

I just noticed that SMT4 isn't even in the top50 anymore, but... Terraria is?

Terraria has really been a runaway success in Japan for what it is.

 

[Law Abiding Stranger]

The Dragon's Crown hype is getting the best of me. I've found every game from Vanillaware to be boring as all hell, but maybe this one got some boob... I mean, variety.

Also, let's hope people aren't overshooting. I believe 50k is quite possible, even for only 2 days, but let's see. People think there's a big hole because there's going to be a month from Pikmin's release, but i think it's not a big deal. There's time for Pikmin to slow down and to W101 to get a little of traction coming from it. Also, there's Lego (lol) and Yakuza (super lol) in the middle of two to help.

But i don't think much more than 50k is possible. Hope i'm wrong, but i can't see this game getting something like 60k.

Numbers for W101 will be really,really low if the current interest in the title (Amazon,Comgnet) is anything to go by.

 

[hiska-kun]

Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jul 29 to Aug 25):

[PS3+360] Killer Is Dead (25 days) - 42.000
[3DS] Disney Magic Castle: My Happy Life (25 days) - 155.000
[3DS] One Piece: Romance Dawn - Bouken no Yoake (18 days) - 36.000
[PS3+PSV] Super Robot Wars OG Saga: Masou Kishin III (4 days) - 99.000
[3DS+PSV] Conception II: Shichisei no Michibiki to Mazuru no Akumu (4 days) - 31.000
[WIU] The Wonderful 101 (2 days) - 32.000

 

[Mr Swine]

In more than a month hell will be unleashed in Japan, I wonder how much 3DS and Monhun/Pokemon will sell. And how high the 3DS sales will be for the rest of the year

 

[Usobuko]

This is terrible but I really think most people are really overshooting W101

This is unfortunate because even then the numbers are low in comparison to the production value of this game. Those are bomba numbers already.

 

[Nirolak]

It seems that God Eater 2 may be getting an anime: http://www.dualshockers.com/2013/07...-announcement-probable-anime-series-incoming/

I felt it was probably relevant here since it's part of the promotional push.

 

[PhantomOfTheKnight]

It seems that God Eater 2 may be getting an anime: http://www.dualshockers.com/2013/07...-announcement-probable-anime-series-incoming/

I felt it was probably relevant here since it's part of the promotional push.

Oooh, yea that might help.

 

[watershed]

Is Nintendo even advertising The W101? It's sad that we all assume it's a foregone conclusion that it will bomb.

 

[Kid Ying]

Numbers for W101 will be really,really low if the current interest in the title (Amazon,Comgnet) is anything to go by.

I don't know much about Comgnet, since i'm not an enthusiast of it, but when there was that twitter debacle and W101 was more quoted on gaming sites, it got a big ressurgence on amazon rankings, getting into the top 100, then the silence came and the game fell down again, so i definitely think it's more of a case of the game not being in the people's minds yet due to the lack of marketing.

Next month we'll see how Nintendo will start the marketing and we will have a better view of the possibilities for it. I confess that i'm optimistic because i think Nintendo will grab a little attention and the game looks really good. If the marketing turns out to be bad, then, 30k it is.

Let's see. There's Lego tomorro. If Lego gets something like 20k without much adverstising, then i'll have hopes for W101.

 

[metalslimer]

The thing is 50k is still a shit number. It's just less of a disaster than 20k.

 

[prwxv3]

It seems that God Eater 2 may be getting an anime: http://www.dualshockers.com/2013/07...-announcement-probable-anime-series-incoming/

I felt it was probably relevant here since it's part of the promotional push.

The game was already going to sell well. This might help it sell more.

 

[Kid Ying]

The thing is 50k is still a shit number. It's just less of a disaster than 20k.

Yes it is, but when Pikmin only manages 100k, we can not expect much for W101.

I mean, W101 can even break 100k with time, but not in the opening week. Being 2 days or more. Now, we must hope the game gets as much as it can and that the nintendo marketing will be good.

And i don't know if the anime for GE will matter much. The game is already pretty famous as it is.

 

[Chris1964]

new releases {2013.08.01}

[3DS] Disney Magic Castle: My Happy Life # <ETC> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥5.480)
[3DS] Disney Magic Castle: My Happy Life [Limited Pack] <ETC> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥24.380)
[3DS] Doki Doki! PreCure Narikiri Life! <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥4.980)
[3DS] Fashionable Puppy 3D <SLG> (MTO) (¥5.040)

[PSV] Mind/Zero <RPG> (Acquire) (¥6.279)

[PSP] Shiratsuyu no Kai # <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥6.090)
[PSP] Shiratsuyu no Kai [Limited Edition] <ADV> (Idea Factory) (¥8.190)
[PSP] NBA 2K13 (2K Collection) <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) (¥2.940)

[PS3] Killer Is Dead # <ACT> (Kadokawa Games) (¥7.980)
[PS3] Killer Is Dead [Premium Edition] <ACT> (Kadokawa Games) (¥7.980)
[PS3] Metro: Last Light <ACT> (Spike Chunsoft) (¥8.190)
[PS3] Sangoku Hime 2: Kouhata Houkou - Kakuseimeshi Taiga # <SLG> (SystemSoft Alpha) (¥7.875)
[PS3] Sangoku Hime 2: Kouhata Houkou - Kakuseimeshi Taiga [Limited Edition] <SLG> (SystemSoft Alpha) (¥9.975)

[360] Killer Is Dead # <ACT> (Kadokawa Games) (¥7.980)
[360] Killer Is Dead [Premium Edition] <ACT> (Kadokawa Games) (¥7.980)
[360] Metro: Last Light <ACT> (Spike Chunsoft) (¥8.190)

 

[Sammy Samusu]

http://www.amazon.co.jp/gp/bestsellers/videogames/ref=sv_vg_3

As irrelevant as it is, I have never seen a game perch so hard at #1.

It seems that God Eater 2 may be getting an anime: http://www.dualshockers.com/2013/07...-announcement-probable-anime-series-incoming/

I felt it was probably relevant here since it's part of the promotional push.

Oh shit.

 

[PhantomOfTheKnight]

And i don't know if the anime for GE will matter much. The game is already pretty famous as it is.

It seems to have worked with Senran Kagura ShinoVita, despite the system's install base.

 

[DaBoss]

Oh man, Nintendo is actually marketing the StreetPass Mii Plaza games on TV. Though it does seem kinda funny, it just seems odd to advertise it on TV.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGNDlUAG114

 

[Scum]

Oh man, Nintendo is actually marketing the StreetPass Mii Plaza games on TV. Though it does seem kinda funny, it just seems odd to advertise it on TV.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tGNDlUAG114

Priorities, NCL. Come on.