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[BadWolf]

I don't see a reason (that doesn't relies on wishful thinking) why SQEnix would develop DQXI for the PS4.

Aiming for the worldwide market maybe?

Dedicated handhelds are selling less and less iirc, especially in places outsides of Japan. If not aiming for consoles then it would probably make more sense to release it for mobile than 3DS or whatever if they want more sales.

With FFXV and KH3 on the way to the PS4, I don't think its too crazy to think DQXI will show up there as well.

 

[sörine]

Err...with all of the high selling games in Japan they put out it's currently selling 2k more than the PS4.. As of right now, the PS4 only has 2 notable cross-gen launch title games for the Japanese market. I don't see how the Wii U can sell more than the PS4 next year.

I'd say 3 notable cross-gen launch games (Yakuza Ishin, FFXIV, MGSV demo) but I generally agree. PS4 is likely going to outsell Wii U next year, the only potential fly in the ointment being that all it's big 3rd party games are also on PS3 and/or Vita.

 

[duckroll]

Wii was actually successful in Japan when DQ10 got announced. PS4 on the other hand is a huge flop.

Successful as a platform which supports online network functions? I don't think so...

 

[Cornbread78]

Wii was actually successful in Japan when DQ10 got announced. PS4 on the other hand is a huge flop.

You would have to think a mainline full DQ game in the vein of DQ VIII would probably create a lot of buzz and produce sales for both the Japan, EU and NA markets. A full budget jRPG with life could create some buzz and DQ still has some brand recognition to help it sell really well and bring more people onto the platform. I say it launches with a slime blue PS4 as well.. How much dig DQ8 sell internationally?

Successful as a platform which supports online network functions? I don't think so...

Ouch.. a full MMO style DQ with those online capabilities? C'Mon now, nothing was going to go wrong there...

 

[L~A]

I don't know, but be aware that pre-orders for New 3DS (that implies advertisment too) started last Friday.
So we're going to see a drop for 3DS hardware sales this week.
Even we assume all the 3DS XL downloaded Dragon Quest the past week, I don't think that number will be bigger than 20k.

That 3DS XL promotion is a bit special, as you can keep your DL code and use it later if you don't like the game available during a given month. For example, someone who bought ther 3DS XL in June could very well have waited and used it on DQX. So that means potential users chosing the game : not just those who bought their console in September, or even on release day.

Now, I'm not implying DL are over 100k for the promotion (especially since there's quite a few games also available) or anything, just that those DL can have an impact on server load. I mean, shouldn't be hard for Square-Enix to "calculate" how much bandwidth they'd need for a set number of users (since the game sold out).

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

30K+ isn't nearly as bad as I thought it would be. In a region where the leading console struggles to hit 10K after Mario, Mario Kart and Zelda spinoff and the second leading and newest console is fighting to keep above 5K, 30K first week for a console that's going to go on to have a prolonged death is almost impressive. Only down 50% from the launch of its predecessor (When the home console market was apparently ~7x bigger)

 

[Aostia]

30K+ isn't nearly as bad as I thought it would be. In a region where the leading console struggles to hit 10K after Mario, Mario Kart and Zelda spinoff and the second leading and newest console is fighting to keep above 10K, 30K first week for a console that's going to go on to have a prolonged death is almost impressive. Only down 50% from the launch of its predecessor (When the home console market was apparently ~7x bigger)

Uhm...why compare the launch with a normal average week? Both Wii U and PS4 launches were good/great compared to their previous iteration's launches:

2006.11.11 [Sony PlayStation 3] (¥49.980 / ¥59.980) - 88.443 (2 days)
2014.02.22 [Sony PlayStation 4] (¥41.979 / ¥46.179)- 322.083 (2 days)
2006.12.02 [Nintendo Wii] (¥25.000) - 371.936 (2 days)
2012.12.08 [Nintendo Wii U] (¥26.250 / ¥31.500) - 308.570 (2 days)

If Xbone will sell half of what X360 sold at launch, it will be horrible also just in terms of comparison % with the last gen. Wii U sold slighlty less than Wii (17%?), PS4 way more than PS3 (400% +?)

And we are seeing this as a "trend" for this gen: good launches, but lack of weekly good pace.

 

[Sage00]

I don't see a reason (that doesn't relies on wishful thinking) why SQEnix would develop DQXI for the PS4.

Building a userbase for both DQ and FF on a single platform. Really missed a trick with that last gen, and let FFXIII become a money sink with the constant delays while it waited for the PS3 numbers to get there following a price drop.

 

[Chû Totoro]

Successful as a platform which supports online network functions? I don't think so...

I'm curious here, I see a lot of people talking about "network functions" but doesn't most if not all the core elements of a network are servers? Consoles are just a terminal who access this network so since it has Internet and various Web protocols capabilities then it's ok. It's not like Wii had a 56k modem. What am I getting wrong here?

Edit : ok I get it re reading your post.. you were maybe talking about the fact that the system itself wasn't perceive as an online gaming machine... I'm dumb sorry (but my technical point regarding servers and terminal still stands?)

 

[Darius]

Successful as a platform which supports online network functions? I don't think so...

Successful system as a system that actually sells unlike PS4.

 

[Orgen]

Successful as a platform which supports online network functions? I don't think so...

I think that SE wanted to mirror the FF XI success with DQ X. The weird choice about DQ X was not releasing it overseas but maybe Nintendo has some weigh in this matter too...

For now I only see DQ XI for 3DS but this Horii comments... brbrbrbr!

 

[BadWolf]

Building a userbase for both DQ and FF on a single platform. Really missed a trick with that last gen, and let FFXIII become a money sink with the constant delays while it waited for the PS3 numbers to get there following a price drop.

This is a good point as well, it's the thing that they did right on the SNES, PS1 and PS2.

 

[allan-bh]

DQ XII on PS4 makes more sense.

 

[Kresnik258]

I guess in the end the question is - would it really be smart for S-E to look at this example and want to do it too?

The best thing I'd take away from this, in terms of Square-Enix's thinking, is exactly the numbers you mentioned in there.

DS version = Decent numbers? (Not what Level 5 had hoped for, but not a bad showing for a new IP)

PS3 version = Western success? (Haven't seen anything showing otherwise really).

Although I realise there are issues with what L5 were expecting for NiNoKuni, DQIX showed that a handheld mainline Dragon Quest can certainly be well received (and sell well) in Japan.

And then a PS4 version, you'd hope, would be able to replicate at least a similar success (if not better) in the west, while gaining some sales in Japan.

Besides, some of the issues with NNK seem to be based in other stuff (delays in development of PS3 version; magic book-based DS version etc.) which wouldn't necessarily plague DQXI.

But regardless - the only reason I'm bringing is up is because of what we're hearing about the game. Everything that gets mentioned about DQXI seems to be suggesting that they want to make a home console version. But I don't see any conceivable way they can to keep the IP in line with what it has historically sold.

So this would be a method for them to achieve that and release the game on the console which has pretty much been the home of Dragon Quest for the last 3 years.

 

[sörine]

This is a good point as well, it's the thing that they did right on the SNES, PS1 and PS2.

But then why follow the bomb (FFXIII) rather than the success (DQIX)? If they want a unified base for their big 2 wouldn't 3DS make more sense?

 

[gtj1092]

Is DQ not considered a system seller type game in Japan. I always got the impression it was the crown jewel of 3rd party games in Japan. It seems is if the most are surmising that people wouldn't go out and buy Ps4s if they found out DQ11 was launching on it. Seems like a game that would drive sales especially when coupled with FF and KH.

Isn't the game also due out in like 2016 anyway. Ps4s current userbase is not what it will be launching with. It should be close to 3million by holiday 2016 and most likely over that if FF15 or KH launch in 2015 with MGSV and other mid tier games like Tales.

But then why follow the bomb (FFXIII) rather than the success (DQIX)? If they want a unified base for their big 2 wouldn't 3DS make more sense?

Pretty sure FF13 outsold DQ9.

 

[urfe]

But then why follow the bomb (FFXIII) rather than the success (DQIX)? If they want a unified base for their big 2 wouldn't 3DS make more sense?

Surely XIII sold more world wide? Didn't it do 6 million?

 

[allan-bh]

Surely XIII sold more world wide? Didn't it do 6 million?

6.6m (january 2013)

DQ IX is at 5.5m (august 2013)

 

[BadWolf]

But then why follow the bomb (FFXIII) rather than the success (DQIX)? If they want a unified base for their big 2 wouldn't 3DS make more sense?

Didn't FFXIII sell well as mentioned above?

And isn't FFXIV a huge success for them? That is what they will be following up.

The PS4 is also a new system that is selling a hell of a lot worldwide right now.

 

[Effect]

Well, they did make DQX a subscription based MMO on the Wii. That was a really strange choice too.

I'm still a little confused by this in the end. Knowing the issues Dragon Quest has outside of Japan and the extra work required to make it a success as recently shown, at the time, with Dragon Quest 9 why would they make Dragon Quest X a mmorpg? A game that could very potentially (and for certain now) required exponentially more effort, time, and money to release outside of Japan? It would automatically make it a Japan only game. I find any talk by SE about how they would like to release DQX outside of Japan etc to be completely fake. They've ensured it wouldn't and did so once they decided to make it a mmorpg.

What SE does going forward isn't going to surprise me at all because I've stopped trying to look for logic and reason when it comes to their actions and decisions.

 

[Nightengale]

DQ XII on PS4 makes more sense.

2020?

 

[shinra-bansho]

But then why follow the bomb (FFXIII) rather than the success (DQIX)? If they want a unified base for their big 2 wouldn't 3DS make more sense?

The world exists outside of Japan, and Square Enix wants to be a global software publisher.

 

[saichi]

Aiming for the worldwide market maybe?

Dedicated handhelds are selling less and less iirc, especially in places outsides of Japan. If not aiming for consoles then it would probably make more sense to release it for mobile than 3DS or whatever if they want more sales.

With FFXV and KH3 on the way to the PS4, I don't think its too crazy to think DQXI will show up there as well.

The best selling DQ game sells about 1 mil outside Japan. If DQXI is only for PS4, the decline in Japan is likely bigger than the gain worldwide.

]Building a userbase for both DQ and FF on a single platform.[/B] Really missed a trick with that last gen, and let FFXIII become a money sink with the constant delays while it waited for the PS3 numbers to get there following a price drop.

Not sure what would be benefit for that on a platform that's struggling in Japan unless the goal is to "save" FF series from declining further. DQ9 was the best selling game in DQ series without FF userbase on DS.

 

[Busaiku]

Dragon Quest IX sold much more on DS than Dragon Quest VIII did on PS2, outside of Japan.
The latter even came with a Final Fantasy XII demo when the franchise was still hot.

"Western success" would not be the factor for it being in PS4.

 

[Pennywise83]

Sorry, but I do not really buy the "SQEX wants to focus on the West when it comes to DQXI" story. SQEX tried to impose the IP on PS1, PS2 and DS and the conclusion was that, even on hugely successful hardware (one of those being the home of best-selling jRPGs), the IP kept selling way lower in the West with respect to Japan, with a maximum of about 1 million units.

Now, assuming that SQEX does not want to lose many sales from Japan, that would mean keeping the mainline entry around 3.5-4 million units. Which hardware will be able to support such sales in 2016? One might imagine that PS4 will have at least 6-7 million units around by 2016, which is quite unlikely given its current trend, and even if it starts selling well (around 30-35.000 units per week).

Realistically, how many units can be extracted from Western countries? Even though PS4 is hugely successful here, it still has to prove is the right platform for jRPGs; PS3 and 360 did not have any really successful jRPG outside Final Fantasy XIII, and many successes (if we want to call them like that) came quite late in the lifecycle, e.g. Ni no Kuni, Tales of Xillia. Lost Odyssey sold well but was really targeted to the West, unlike Blue Dragon, which indeed sold way less.

If DQVIII and IX sold around 1 million units in the West it is unrealistic DQXI will sell much more on PS4. So, by going exclusively on PS4, SQEX might face two problems: selling less than before in Japan (we saw how DQ typically benefits from huge installed bases), and selling less-than-expected in the West, such that it is not possible to offset the lost in Japanese sales.

We must also consider how SQEX has always considered DQ an IP with huge margin behind. DQVIII has probably been the only technically involving and expensive entry so far; developing a game exclusively for PS4 requires a lot of work in terms of time and money, in particular if the team wants to guarantee the typical big world-map.

So my bet is that DQXI will be on both PS3 and PS4, in order to exploit the former in Japan and the latter abroad. The risk is here is that the choice of PS3 might be out of maximum time; but I guess that people will not have problem to buy such a huge IP on PS3 in 2016 anyway (like they bought MH3P on PSP in late 2010 / early 2011).

 

[duckroll]

Regarding the DQXI Streaming comment earlier. I think this puts the possibility in a new context: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=891392

 

[Aostia]

The world exists outside of Japan, and Square Enix wants to be a global software publisher.

try to push DQ outside Japan betting on an home console could also be really risky, considering how DQ is really Japanese-focused in terms of appeal.
It would be a bet: they could win it or lose it.

EDIT:

Regarding the DQXI Streaming comment earlier. I think this puts the possibility in a new context: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=891392

So, DQXI for PS4 (normal edition), iOS/Android (with this platform) and maybe 3DS too (as DQX)?

 

[sörine]

Pretty sure FF13 outsold DQ9.

Was it more profitable than DQIX? Do you really consider FFXIII the more successful project in retrospect?

The world exists outside of Japan, and Square Enix wants to be a global software publisher.

Right, and between 3DS and PS4 which platform is viable globally? Which platform is viable in all major markets?

If you combine FFXIII & DQIX, you end up with about 5.3m western sales to 6.4m Japanese sales. Which platform better serves that demographic layout, 3DS or PS4/XB1?

 

[Mpl90]

try to push DQ outside Japan betting on an home console could also be really risky, considering how DQ is really Japanese-focused in terms of appeal.
It would be a bet: they could win it or lose it.

Also, 3DS is actually a pretty good platform for RPGs, sales-wise, in the West (especially US). I can definitely see a scenario where the game is released on many platforms, but I don't see a scenario where it's not released on 3DS at all. Or on a Nintendo platform at all, depending on when it does release.

 

[Pennywise83]

try to push DQ outside Japan betting on an home console could also be really risky, considering how DQ is really Japanese-focused in terms of appeal.
It would be a bet: they could win it or lose it.

I'm really doubtful a game with DQ artstyle has any chance of becoming mass-market (>1m units) in the West on PS4; we will have niche games or tie-in games, but my impression is that you go either mobile or Nintendo.

 

[Earthpainting]

Regarding the DQXI Streaming comment earlier. I think this puts the possibility in a new context: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=891392

Between this and their streaming of Dragon Quest 10 on 3DS, this indeed puts a new option on the table. A more platform agnostic option that would make porting a lot simpler. Not a fan of gaming as a service, but I'm curious to see where they'll take this.

 

[Mpl90]

Regarding the DQXI Streaming comment earlier. I think this puts the possibility in a new context: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=891392

Yeah.

First, DQX on mobile with the Docomo partnership.
Then, DQX on 3DS using cloud technology.
Now a specific app for iOS and Android that's going to have many games to choose from, including FFXIII, The Last Remnant, Mudered: Soul Suspect (which makes me think...maybe it's coming to the West too!).
Could we see, in the next future, Dive In released also for gaming consoles (both portable and home)?

 

[BadWolf]

Regarding the DQXI Streaming comment earlier. I think this puts the possibility in a new context: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=891392

Interesting, this would mean they can make a console game and also have it available for the best selling platform overall even in Japan (mobile).

 

[duckroll]

So, DQXI for PS4 (normal edition), iOS/Android (with this platform) and maybe 3DS too (as DQX)?

I dunno but we're definitely seeing S-E being willing to try stuff which I wouldn't consider as real options previously!

 

[KillerMan91]

Was it more profitable than DQIX? Do you really consider FFXIII the more successful project in retrospect?


Right, and between 3DS and PS4 which platform is viable globally? Which platform is viable in all major markets?

If you combine FFXIII & DQIX, you end up with about 5.3m western sales to 6.4m Japanese sales. Which platform better serves that demographic layout, 3DS or PS4/XB1?

Considering how 3DS is tracking below PSP is software sales in US (even worse if you only look at third party software) I really don't know. They could lose more western sales going 3DS with those both titles than Japanese sales going PS4 with those both titles. Of course most logical would be FFXV for PS4/XB1 (like it currently is) and DQXI for 3DS.

 

[Darius]

You would have to think a mainline full DQ game in the vein of DQ VIII would probably create a lot of buzz and produce sales for both the Japan, EU and NA markets. A full budget jRPG with life could create some buzz and DQ still has some brand recognition to help it sell really well and bring more people onto the platform. I say it launches with a slime blue PS4 as well.. How much dig DQ8 sell internationally?




Ouch.. a full MMO style DQ with those online capabilities? C'Mon now, nothing was going to go wrong there...

I won´t exclude any possibilties, for all it´s worth I haven´t a high opinion about SQEX management at all so I wouldn´t even exclude that they prematurealy based their decision on PS4 western launch performance expecting a similar upward trend compared to PS3 also in Japan.

I also don´t share your enthusiasm about supposed huge opportunities in the West on PS4 for Japanese centric games. Just keep in mind that PS3 has a several times larger userbase (despite this advantage Japanocentric games haven´t been that huge) and simply not to fall into the hype, so far I don´t see such a huge advantage for these kind of games compared to last gen. In fact despite a small vocal niche in forums like this, the actual userbase is in favour of western games by an overwhelming degree.

Also when it comes to sales, let´s not ignore that the last main entry (DQIX) sold over a million units in the West. Just think about how much a hypothetical DQXI on PS4 would have to sell in the West to come close to DQIXs sales, they would have to compensate worse sales in Japan but first sell over a million units just to equate DQ9s western sales of 1million unit sold.

Basically without certain incentives or some typical convoluted SQEX market strategy, there is no point, because such a move will very likely lead to less consumers overall.

 

[gtj1092]

Was it more profitable than DQIX? Do you really consider FFXIII the more successful project in retrospect?


Right, and between 3DS and PS4 which platform is viable globally? Which platform is viable in all major markets?

If you combine FFXIII & DQIX, you end up with about 5.3m western sales to 6.4m Japanese sales. Which platform better serves that demographic layout, 3DS or PS4/XB1?

Idk but you seemed to only be talking about sales which is the only thing we can say for certain and FF13 outsolde DQ9.

Also not every game needs to be on 3DS or Wii U. Why not argue it should be on mobile then if you really are only concerned with margins and userbase.

Honestly I just want it on a home console at least Wii U level or above. I think in the end it will be a multiplatform staggered release starting with 3DS and up ports from there unfortunately.

 

[Celine]

The world exists outside of Japan, and Square Enix wants to be a global software publisher.

Right, where is my Dragon Quest VII Enix !?

 

[allan-bh]

2020?

Not early than 2018, unless the S-E changes its strategy (the same since DQ VII).

 

[BadWolf]

When are we expecting DQXI to release btw? A couple of years from now minimum?

Wouldn't the 3DS's successor be on the horizon or released at that point?

 

[zeromcd73]

Right, where is my Dragon Quest VII Enix !?

Directly behind me on the bookshelf

 

[michaelius]

Considering how 3DS is tracking below PSP is software sales in US (even worse if you only look at third party software) I really don't know. They could lose more western sales going 3DS with those both titles than Japanese sales going PS4 with those both titles. Of course most logical would be FFXV for PS4/XB1 (like it currently is) and DQXI for 3DS.

By the time they release anything 3DS will be in similar situation PS3/X360 are this year.

Huge userbase with limited buying power because core users moved to next thing.

 

[Busaiku]

Also not every game needs to be on 3DS or Wii U. Why not argue it should be on mobile then if you really are only concerned with margins and userbase.

Most people are assuming this will be a more traditional Dragon Quest game, as opposed to something like Super Light. Besides the aforementioned, none of the mobile games have had the same level of success as the franchise on 3DS.
Dunno why people are suggesting Wii U though. That's the worst possible platform, outside of maybe PS4 in Japan.

 

[BadWolf]

Most people are assuming this will be a more traditional Dragon Quest game, as opposed to something like Super Light. Besides the aforementioned, none of the mobile games have had the same level of success as the franchise on 3DS.
Dunno why people are suggesting Wii U though. That's the worst possible platform, outside of maybe PS4 in Japan.

A new mainline entry on mobile would be a different story though.

 

[gtj1092]

Most people are assuming this will be a more traditional Dragon Quest game, as opposed to something like Super Light. Besides the aforementioned, none of the mobile games have had the same level of success as the franchise on 3DS.
Dunno why people are suggesting Wii U though. That's the worst possible platform, outside of maybe PS4 in Japan.

That's not an excuse considering all the other main line titles have or are getting ported to mobile. And why would they have the same success if they are ancient ports of games that have been released many times over. So I'll ask again is DQ a big title or not because many seem to question its selling power outside of nintendo consoles.

 

[sörine]

Considering how 3DS is tracking below PSP is software sales in US (even worse if you only look at third party software) I really don't know. They could lose more western sales going 3DS with those both titles than Japanese sales going PS4 with those both titles. Of course most logical would be FFXV for PS4/XB1 (like it currently is) and DQXI for 3DS.

3DS has fewer releases than PSP did plus digital is a much larger presence today. It'd be interesting to see if the average 3DS game sold less than the average PSP or not. We at least know 3DS wins out on the high end (million sellers), which is what FF would be targeting.

I agree with what you think is most logical though. Dumping 3DS for DQ either in service of The West or in service of ensuring a stronger base for FFXV seems insane.

Idk but you seemed to only be talking about sales which is the only thing we can say for certain and FF13 outsolde DQ9.

Also not every game needs to be on 3DS or Wii U. Why not argue it should be on mobile then if you really are only concerned with margins and userbase.

Honestly I just want it on a home console at least Wii U level or above. I think in the end it will be a multiplatform staggered release starting with 3DS and up ports from there unfortunately.

I was talking success. Which seems the better measure of that, sales or profit?

I'm not arguing everything needs to be 3DS (or Wii U, where is that even coming from?), I'm saying if SE wants DQ & FF on the same platform the one that's viable globally makes more sense than the one that isn't. Especially when the one that isn't REALLY ISN'T in the region where FF+DQ do over half their global sales.

 

[Principate]

A new mainline entry on mobile would be a different story though.

Neh really don't think so. Price is a massive barrier on mobile so as long as traditional consoles can still moves large amounts of software, the normal model of insular mainline games with a set price wouldn't be as successful. Now a f2p game that could probably end up moving similar revenue but that's a different model than the tradition methods and then need to invest significantly decreases.

 

[Busaiku]

A new mainline entry on mobile would be a different story though.

That's not an excuse considering all the other main line titles have or are getting ported to mobile. And why would they have the same success if they are ancient ports of games that have been released many times over. So I'll ask again is DQ a big title or not because many seem to question its selling power outside of nintendo consoles.

Not in the traditional model.
Releasing a $20+ game wouldn't make big waves on mobile.
It's why something like Dragon Quest VIII doesn't do as well as Dragon Quest VII.

 

[Jin_7]

Only Dragon Quest IX sold 4 million.
The rest are around in the 3 millions.

VII also sold more than 4 million in Japan on PS alone.

 

[allan-bh]

VII also sold more than 4 million in Japan on PS alone.

I think Famitsu number is 3.9m