jeremy1456
Junior Member
A steady and solid release schedule is way more valuable than a few evergreen titles, but neither system has one.
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Media Create Sales: Week 4, 2014 (Jan 20 - Jan 26)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
A steady and solid release schedule is way more valuable than a few evergreen titles, but neither system has one.
Half a million Japanese people refuse to admit they fell off the fitness wagon.
metalslimer
Member
It's not going to happen. Also Phantasy Star will be a pretty big game. VIta will have that a bunch of smaller games that sell 100-200k. Wii U has like 3 important games all year. VIta software sales will eclipse Wii U by a large margin (well the bundles might make it closer, but MC software wise it will not be close)
SporeCrawler
Member
I also use wii fit everyday. fitness wagon or not. why not measure your own weight everyday and try to keep your BMI in check. there is nothing terribly wrong about it.
Honestly, my takeaway from their fiscal call is that Nintendo doesn't actually think there's anything fundamentally wrong with the Wii U and that all they have to do is wait for a magic title to come out (which is their next major title of course!), up the marketing, and voila, everything is fine.
As such I'm not surprised at his optimism over Wii Fit U.
Given that Nintendo has such a facile view on the Wii U however, I'm not expecting anything to notably change with the system, perhaps for its entire lifecycle.
As such I'm not surprised at his optimism over Wii Fit U.
Given that Nintendo has such a facile view on the Wii U however, I'm not expecting anything to notably change with the system, perhaps for its entire lifecycle.
It sounds like it's a little different in the Q&A. I know it sounds strange, but hongca saw the first page of the Japanese transcript, and...
The second page of the Q&A seems pretty damning. It seems like Iwata's saying that the DS and the 3DS turned around when they were doing poorly, and that when momentum is bad there's some other factors that push the other way.
I don't think anything should change for the Wii U since they should be preparing to make their next system succeed instead, but if they continue to invest a lot in order to reverse the system's fortunes...
I don't think anything should change for the Wii U since they should be preparing to make their next system succeed instead, but if they continue to invest a lot in order to reverse the system's fortunes...
Well that sounds more realistic.
Looking at what they put up on the English site, they expect their QoL platform to start making money in the fiscal year beginning April 2016, presumably as a potential replacement for their console revenue stream (if they're unsuccessful at salvaging the Wii U and also at launching a new successful platform).
If we look at their currently announced release slate, some of the games are probably not going to make 2014, so if we take whatever falls out of this fiscal year and slot Zelda for Fall 2015, they will have pretty much delivered every franchise that's expected with a new Nintendo console, and can probably start moving on as teams launch their games this year and next if they want to go with a fast cycle and/or divert resources to their QoL platform and their next handheld.
I mean it's not exactly unheard of for a Nintendo console to have minimal support in its final years so if 2016 is a bit barren (or perhaps 2017 too, I don't know how long they intend to wait), I don't think it will change their perception much.
I believe the last one had a bunch of performance problems and had a save data corruption bug.
My personal expectation set is 2.8M (this year's result) to 4M. They're at least releasing quite a few games and I think they're pretty much going to hit the audiences they don't have that would still feasibly consider the system.
They will also have the full year at the lower price point.
metalslimer
Member
Yeah this is sure going to be a better year; however this is probably the last year the system sells over 2.5 million worldwide. I kind of don't really see 4 million happening though. For the first 4 months of the year, this system will probably be either flat or down in some territories. The system's shipments in Europe will probably not match last year's as more and more retailers start dropping the system. There is also the PS4/One/cheaper 3DS/cheaper PS3/360 competiton coming.
Thats a fair assessment. They will probably treat this year as a last hurrah. If they haven't already, they're probably going to act on a "sooner rather than later" basis for the next platform if 2014 fails to perform.
Hero of Legend
Member
Should bring up new sales data regarding Nintendo's Wii U games in JP:
Super Mario 3D World: 590k
New Super Mario Bros. U: 620k (just for 2013 Edit: Correction, April-Dec)
New Super Luigi U: 140k
Wii Party U: 750k
The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD: 90k
All with bundles and downloads combined.
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2014/140130e.pdf (Page 5)
Super Mario 3D World: 590k
New Super Mario Bros. U: 620k (just for 2013 Edit: Correction, April-Dec)
New Super Luigi U: 140k
Wii Party U: 750k
The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD: 90k
All with bundles and downloads combined.
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2014/140130e.pdf (Page 5)
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
Which games are those? Just wondering, theres already a Mario Kart on the 3DS and Smash is coming to the 3DS as well.
metalslimer
Member
2015 is going to be their QOL platform launch with a lot of rumblings about the next handheld. I expect if that flops they will just switch into that new platform launch. With that QOL announcement, I really don't see another console coming anytime soon.
Well Smash on Wii U will probably get the most promotion and might release first and it will probably not sell nearly as well outside of Japan. Mario Kart is the same way. In the west people want to play that on their consoles. MK Wii easily outsold DS despite DS having a much higher userbase.
Well Smash on Wii U will probably get the most promotion and might release first and it will probably not sell nearly as well outside of Japan. Mario Kart is the same way. In the west people want to play that on their consoles. MK Wii easily outsold DS despite DS having a much higher userbase.
Graphics Horse
Member
I don't know about 4M but they were still feeliing the effects of the overshipped launch into the second half of the calander year, so it could well look better this year unless demand crumples.
They fiscal year starts in April, but yeah, I'd be really surprised if it hits 4 million shipped. However, we're talking numbers that are so low that I want to give it at least a little bit of headroom if they do something really aggressive like bundling in Smash and Mario Kart for free or whatever.
That said, I see the Wii U's major challenges this year as follows:
1.) The PS4 and Xbox One had a really solid start, and they have a lot of games announced for them, so confidence is high both from a publisher and consumer perspective.
2.) So far, leaks suggest an Xbox One price drop to $400 this year, pushing it into the more affordable range.
3.) By Fall and Q1 2015 (still in the fiscal year) we will start seeing more next-gen only games coming out. Some publishers have even switched cross-gen projects to next-gen. For example, Evolve spent most of its life as a current-gen/cross-gen game, but Take-Two is releasing it as a next-gen only title. Since current-gen sales are falling apart and a ton of PS4/XB1s sold up front, the number of publishers willing to do is likely increasing.
4.) The last of the Wii U's third party support seems to be drying up. We're at the phase where we're actively canceling DLC we already sold people on the system, and their three biggest partners (Warner, Ubisoft, Activision) all have major titles announced without Wii U SKUs.
5.) We're going to get new entrants into the console race this year, and some may be notably more on target with Nintendo's historical audience. For example, Amazon's box is already being carted around to publishers and given that it was supposed to launch this Fall, it's presumably coming out either Spring 2014 or Fall 2014. Google is also rumored by the WSJ to be doing the same thing, but unlike Amazon, they don't have a bunch of first party studios.
6.) With the advent of things like smart devices and major f2p games, judging by how sales have went, it appears many consumers who would have liked Nintendo's lower cost and/or pick-up-and-play approach now have a lot to do and can easily satisfy their gaming needs without them. I see that as a structural change and basically view them as audiences that Nintendo is unlikely to ever get back.
Yes this to me has been an incredibly large problem for them this entire generation.
I may get stoned for this, but I also feel Angry Birds Go is a major problem for Mario Kart, since Rovio has done a great job building it as a kids merchandizing brand and it's free to play on your parents' smartphone and/or tablet.
Yes, the 4 million was meant to sound so high that it felt like it could really be a roof on the possibility as opposed to the likely option.
I count 2.
X is important to me damnit!
LTD sales targets from publishers
[3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters 2: Iru to Ruka no Fushigi na Fushigi na Kagi - unknown
[3DS] Puyo Puyo Tetris - 200k
[PS3] Puyo Puyo Tetris - 150k
[PSV] Puyo Puyo Tetris - 30k
[WIU] Puyo Puyo Tetris - 20k
[PS3] Super Heroine Chronicle: Chou Heroine Senki - 40k
[PSV] Super Heroine Chronicle: Chou Heroine Senki - 40k
[PSV] Terraria - 50k
[3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters 2: Iru to Ruka no Fushigi na Fushigi na Kagi - unknown
[3DS] Puyo Puyo Tetris - 200k
[PS3] Puyo Puyo Tetris - 150k
[PSV] Puyo Puyo Tetris - 30k
[WIU] Puyo Puyo Tetris - 20k
[PS3] Super Heroine Chronicle: Chou Heroine Senki - 40k
[PSV] Super Heroine Chronicle: Chou Heroine Senki - 40k
[PSV] Terraria - 50k
Puyo Puyo target ratio for PS3:Vita seems pretty low compared to the results we've seen in PS3/PSV multiplats.
Yeah that's probably it, looks like they're hoping for too much with that PS3 release.
It seems about right with a 3DS SKU for a puzzle game. PS3 looks high.
I think it's more that the PS3 targets are high. Puyo never sold that well on PSP or Wii even.
Graphics Horse
Member
The only thing I'm certain of is they won't have another quarter of negative shipments to (from?) Europe.
I think a lower cost mobile tech based home console is their only route to having a large selling and profitable home system again, but these are a dangerous times.
Dr. Buni
Member
X isn't confirmed to be released in 2014, though. I highly doubt you people will play the game this year.
lalalalala I can't hear you*shoves fingers in ears*
EDIT: I was also tempted to reply with "What do you mean you people?"
Apophis2036
Banned
I read all that enthusiasm as Iwata accepting that they are just going to ride the system out until they can release a new one without insulting existing WiiU owners too much. Maybe late 2016.
Is the WiiU an expensive system in Japan compared to PS3 and PS4's launch price ?. Iwata's refusal to price cut the system is pretty shocking to me esp as I read a few large media reports that Nintendo are now just failing to break even on the system by a small amount. Surely taking a $50 loss on every system sold would be worth it in the long run to sell much more of your evergreen software.
I think we might actually see sub 1k sales for WiiU sometime inbetween DKC Tropical Freezeand MK8. I am really shocked at the degree of it's collapse in the New Year. I mean it was never going to start selling 50k per week but I thought with the line up of exclusive software it has now and the new bundles it could stabilize at around 20k per week.
ArchedThunder
Banned
My take away was that he realizes the Wii U is a failure and he wants to make it as small of a failure as possible. The fact that they are already talking about their next console and handheld is pretty telling too. He realizes that they can't just dump the Wii U because that would hurt their brand image way too much but also wants to assure people that they are already hard at work on their next console.
Sammy Samusu
Member
X is going to sell more than expected and push hardware too. It's an audience different from the usual Nintendo crowd.
Just like Monster Hunter pushed more hardware in the US (67k) and EU than Pikmin (31k) or Zelda (50k).
Cosmo Clock 21
Banned
Last aggregated LTD (2013 Apr 30) of last-gen Puyo games combined across all platforms
PP15th - 649,869
PP7 - 493,196
PP20th - 325,832
PP20th was a bit of a unique case since the main SKU was on DS months after the 3DS released in Japan. PPT has the following going for it:
- simultaneous launch on all platforms
- smartphone game spinoff Puyo Puyo Quest release last year, currently #6 top grossing in iOS App Store. It's already given the 3DS Best Price version of PP20th a long tail bump
- Tetris license
As for the PS3 targets I think it's solely due to the fact that the main SKUs are the 3DS/PS3 version, so the most marketing is going towards those. This is different from before when non-DS ports were ignored and released months later.
Yeah. Maybe Nintendo has something more up their sleeve, but given the context of last weeks meeting, I think you can make some conclusions - and based on last week I suspect Nintendo has internally given up on Wii U as far as driving profits and will try and eke out a small profit until they move on. Nintendo has no grand strategy to spur sales- no drastic price cut within 6 months like we saw with 3DS. No hardware redesign. They will stick it out with what they have planned for the platform and try and not lose much more money on the venture.
Captain Smoker
Member
It is. http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2014/140130e.pdf (end)
It's already 4 years in development, so it makes sense.
I think they might just be concerned with getting back to profitability at this point. Even if your cash pile would in theory let you lose money for X number of years, investors will kick everyone out well before then if they get concerned enough.
Well I mean even if they wanted to, they have no software ready to go, so it makes sense to sit on the Wii U for another two years.
I'm not trusting that. Nintendo has and will move dates around to suit their needs. Just look at Donkey Kong tropical freeze.
ArchedThunder
Banned
Yeah, I honestly think they are going to get all their big games that they have in development on the Wii U out and not start anymore big projects for the Wii U. That'll probably give them software into 2015 and maybe early 2016 at the latest.
At this point I think it's the right choice.
I mean Sony has effectively done the same with the Vita where as far as I can tell they have effectively zero internal Western development on the platform, while in Japan they have a few teams since it's possible to put out a profitable product in the region and try to tide over their customer base until the PS4 gets going.
That's basically my assumption as well. I suspect most of that is announced sans like Zelda and whatever their NFC plans are plus maybe another title or two.
I could see a new console holiday 2016. Truncated cycle, but not completely unprecedented.
jeremy1456
Junior Member
If We are using standards that don't consider Dk a big title then I'm pretty sure the Vita has no big games announced for this year.
I mean 4 years is what the original Xbox did isn't it?
They moved DK because Mario was the much more important game for the holidays, and if the recent videos are any indication then DK greatly benefit from being delayed
X is too long in the oven, and we hungry
I believe so- that is what I was thinking of.
What will be interesting is if we see the hybrid.
I'm having trouble envisioning X selling well regardless of when it comes out so they might as well just release it as soon as it's feasibly ready.
I assume they're trying to build a brand they can use on the system after this, but if it's going to sell very little to start with, that's not going to do a ton of brand building.
Well 2015-2016 is the same time period I would expect a new handheld in so it doesn't seem wholly unfeasible.
That said if they're trying to launch the QOL platform at the same time it might be problematic. I'm not sure how many resources go into that. Juggling three platforms when you have trouble supporting two always seemed like a strange plan to me, especially when the newest one is far from guaranteed to take off.
ArchedThunder
Banned
They could also fill out 2015 and 2016 with some small games and maybe some HD ports here and there, I mean Wind Waker HD took less than a year to make apparently.
Yup.
I think X could do surprisingly well(not amazing or anything). Xenoblade was really, really well received. I'd actually imagine it doing better in the west than Japan though.
Isn't QOL tentatively set for Spring 2015? Or did I make that up?
Depending on how many...err..traditional game resources are used for QOL, I think the one size fits all system in late 2016 could work.
Maybe its wishful thinking, but I just cannot see Nintendo having any feasible way of launching a new portable and new home console with QOL on the way. I think they have to consolidate the game development to 1 platform.