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[BriBri]

Personally, my money is on early 2016, unless sales are quite better during the first half of 2015.

I hope Nintendo will have a better game for Golden Week in 2015. 2014 with just the new version of Wagamama Fashion was pretty weak.

Tomodachi Collection: Homokore Edition
Isabelle platformer
Believe!

 

[Pennywise83]

Personally, my money is on early 2016 (last months of 2015 at the very earliest), unless sales are quite better during the first half of 2015.

I hope Nintendo will have a better game for Golden Week in 2015. 2014 with just the new version of Wagamama Fashion was pretty weak.

My guess is that Nintendo thought Mario Golf would have been popular (as, if not more than, Mario Tennis); in fact, it bombed (100k seller, uch). That was its main game for Golden Week this year.

 

[L~A]

Well, that speaks volumes that I actually forgot about Mario Golf

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Personally, my money is on early 2016 (last months of 2015 at the very earliest), unless sales are quite better during the first half of 2015.

I hope Nintendo will have a better game for Golden Week in 2015. 2014 with just the new version of Wagamama Fashion was pretty weak.

Nintendo has three cards to play in 2015: price cut, New 3DS exclusives and NFC games.

This is just the beginning.

 

[Busaiku]

Yeah, there are no NFC announcements for 3DS, so that has to be coming.

 

[Jucksalbe]

Those hardware numbers....basically the 3DS is the only system that sells at all.

I can't wait for next week so see how Etrian Odyssey Untold 2 sells, anyways, I expected the 3DS to sell more.

Hmm....I expect around 80k for Etrian Odyssey.

 

[Graphics Horse]

I thought 'NFC games' were ones with Amiibo support.

And that card game that's been rumoured for years on Wii U.

 

[Chris1964]

--------------------------------------------------
|Week|        2013         |        2014         |
--------------------------------------------------
| 40 | 122.987 |   122.987 |  22.490 |    22.490 |
| 41 | 213.570 |   336.557 | 261.873 |   284.263 |
| 42 | 154.578 |   491.135 | 113.238 |   397.501 |
| 43 | 109.508 |   600.643 |  96.590 |   494.091 |
| 44 |  88.376 |   689.019 |  69.673 |   563.764 |
| 45 |  81.817 |   770.836 |  79.217 |   642.981 |
| 46 |  70.102 |   840.938 |  65.201 |   708.182 |
| 47 |  84.506 |   925.444 |  88.653 |   796.835 |
| 48 | 108.373 | 1.033.817 |         |           |
| 49 | 125.269 | 1.159.086 |         |           |
| 50 | 181.556 | 1.340.642 |         |           | -> YW2: SU
| 51 | 232.600 | 1.573.242 |         |           |
| 52 | 201.703 | 1.774.945 |         |           |
--------------------------------------------------

 

[Busaiku]

I thought 'NFC games' were ones with Amiibo support.

And that card game that's been rumoured for years on Wii U.

Right, nothing was announced for 3DS.

 

[Pennywise83]

Hmm....I expect around 80k for Etrian Odyssey.

The first EOU debuted around 93k units; many are expecting EOU2 to debut slightly better. I guess 100k units are not that unrealistic.

 

[Spiegel]

I tend to disagree.

100k+ sellers are important when the platform has still a limited userbase, such as PSV. It was common to see 100k+ sellers moving PSV hw sales during its first and second year (e.g. Persona 4, Hatsune Miku, Toukiden). Within the PSV ecosystem, 100k+ sellers are big sellers, in fact. Of course, I don't expect twice the sales, but when the baseline is already lower, I think it's reasonable to expect a bigger increase with respect to a platform that is already selling 60k units on a weekly basis. Also, such games should have a greater impact when the installed base is 3m with respect to it is 16m; this is a quite common trend in products lifecycle.

The problem, though, reminds a vicious circle. I try to explain it better; some software houses found a good market on PSV; in fact, many games are selling nicely for what they are. But no one is taking risk on the platform; once a software house saw what it's selling, they keep releasing the same stuffs over and over. This occurs a bit less on other platforms. My fear is that this situation will keep repeating every year until PSV's successor will be announced (if any), without allowing the platform to really succeed. We are saying that PSV is a niche console, and it's fair; but overall sw sales are a bit worrying if you compare with other niche platforms such as the DC or the GC. The top seller is just around 400k...

Of course, Sony played a role, given its abysmal support.

We are not disagreeing here, Vita is not going to have better times. It's all downhill from now until it gets discountinued. (Now the Minecraft bundle sells gangbusters just to make me look bad)

To comment on your big jumps

P4G = first "big" release. ~6 months after launch.
PD = hardware bundle
Toukiden = hardware bundle

Sony stopped making hardware bundles this year alongside the few big releases, for some reason, and the jumps are lower because of that.

 

[FreedomFighter]

Vita needs to average somewhere around 40k per week to stay over 2013 (over the next 5 weeks). Doesn't look likely. I guess it'll be at least another 2 weeks before it drops below last year (unless it sells less than 2 or 3k next week).

Gripping stuff, man.

Well at least you all got a whole year out of touting the YoY stat exclusively. Was a good run. But anything can happen.

Nintendo has three cards to play in 2015: price cut, New 3DS exclusives and NFC games.

This is just the beginning.

Dunno how I feel about them splitting the userbase like this. Would rather there be games that work on both, just with n3DS enhancements like MH4U, Smash, Majora's Mask, etc.

 

[mrmickfran]

Is it weird that I expected a higher number for Pokémon?

 

[disco]

Not bad but not mind blowing.

 

[Moor-Angol]

12./04. [3DS] One Piece: Super Grand Battle! X <FTG> (Bandai Namco Games) {2014.11.13} (¥6.145) - 10.311 / 47.014 <20-40%> (-72%)

ouch...

14./00. [WIU] Taiko no Tatsujin: Tokumori! # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2014.11.20} (¥5.627) - 9.582 / NEW <0-20%>

double ouch....

 

[cacildo]

When is the japanese release os smash bros wiiu?

 

[1st Course]

Excel work showing Vita 2014 vs 2013 (used famitsu numbers)

*In weeks 1-9 vita was significantly up against last year, mostly because vita Q1 13 was really awful.
*weeks 10-38 was stable against last year.
*around weeks 40-41 vita started losing momentum against last year (Vita 2000 was released in week 41, 2013).
*trend line shows it will likely end this year slightly down overall vs 2013.

 

[Pennywise83]

We are not disagreeing here, Vita is not going to have better times. It's all downhill from now until it gets discountinued. (Now the Minecraft bundle sells gangbusters just to make me look bad)

To comment on your big jumps

P4G = first "big" release. ~6 months after launch.
PD = hardware bundle
Toukiden = hardware bundle

Sony stopped making hardware bundles this year alongside the few big releases, for some reason, and the jumps are lower because of that.

Did Freedom Wars get a bundle? The week of its launch (188k units), PSV sold around 28k units, doubling previous week numbers (around 14k units).

 

[Orgen]

Holy shit at some of the sell through numbers (taiko, one piece... Even Pokemon is surprising to me)

The bomba bin is going to be full this holiday!

 

[Pennywise83]

Holy shit at some of the sell through numbers (taiko, one piece... Even Pokemon is surprising to me)

The bomba bin is going to be full this holiday!

To be fair, shipments are always big before holidays beucase retailers expect to sell the most during late-November / December. Not saying that some of those games won't hit the bargain bins, but it's pretty common to see overshipment, in particular when kids and families are the primary target.

For example, last year Wii U Taiko game was apparently overshipped, but it was able to keep its price because it had legs (Amazon is a good indicator in this case).

 

[L~A]

I really, really wouldn't worry about Taiko.

Now, One Piece, on the other hand.... *whistles innocently while walking away*

It's all the fault of a You... I mean Super Smash Bros. for 3DS!

 

[hiska-kun]

Holy shit at some of the sell through numbers (taiko, one piece... Even Pokemon is surprising to me)

The bomba bin is going to be full this holiday!

Pokemon is not surprising since Nintendo has to avoid stock problems.

Taiko was already anticipated by the blog.
One Piece is the true bomba for me.

 

[Spiegel]

Did Freedom Wars get a bundle? The week of its launch (188k units), PSV sold around 28k units, doubling previous week numbers (around 14k units).

I don't think so. But it was a new IP with the second highest selling FW on Vita after God Eater 2.
That does impact sales a lot more than releasing sequels/spinoffs to smaller games already released on the system.

 

[hiska-kun]

Media Create:

[WIU] Taiko no Tatsujin: Wii U Version! # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.11.21} (¥5.480) - 19.265 / NEW <16,25%> [Units shipped => ~118k]

Probably around 100k again this year

 

[Pennywise83]

Pokemon is not surprising since Nintendo has to avoid stock problems.

Taiko was already anticipated by the blog.
One Piece is the true bomba for me.

Also, Monday was holiday so I guess they expected some sales realizing after the weekend was over.

I don't think so. But it was a new IP with the second highest selling FW on Vita after God Eater 2.
That does impact sales a lot more than releasing sequels/spinoffs to smaller games already released on the system.

And this is the problem it's not that 100k+ sellers don't generally help; it's that software houses are not taking risks (hence they release sequels, or similar games) when the potential is there.

By the way, I was just shocked about this week sales because Oct / Nov have been the worst months for PSV in 2014: http://gamedatamuseum.web.fc2.com/psvita.htm

 

[Mpl90]

Hmm... is it me, or... for FW, it seems western games get a better PS4 to PS3 ratio?

Yep. We've had games with a better first week on PS4 than on PS3 and games with SKUs on both consoles tied at debut. This has yet to happen with Japanese-focused games. Right now, games from Japan sell generally awful on PS4, and they have very small post-release sales.

PES 2015 did awful this year on all platforms, wtf.

A bit reassured that Captain Toad is showing some legs (50% second week drop is usually a good sign for sales in the mid-term).

 

[Hero of Legend]

Really surprised actually by the slight increase for Reve Unitia rather than a drop, isn't that really rare for the series? Actual legs showing? Not like there was anything special that would provoke it I would think.

 

[hiska-kun]

Really surprised actually by the slight increase for Reve Unitia rather than a drop, isn't that really rare for the series? Actual legs showing? Not like there was anything special that would provoke it I would think.

Price drops showing

 

[Pennywise83]

Really surprised actually by the slight increase for Reve Unitia rather than a drop, isn't that really rare for the series? Actual legs showing? Not like there was anything special that would provoke it I would think.

My idea is that those increases happen really often when games sell 1-2k units. In fact, I do think that many games spend a lot of time in this range before falling below the 1k mark. Now, the novelty is that the market shrank so much that we are actually able to see what happens when sales are so low, and for a long time. Reve Unitia would have disappeared after a few weeks after the launch in 2012, when the 30th position was around 4-5k.

 

[Hero of Legend]

Price drops showing

Is that not common otherwise?

Also as of this week, Reve Unitia surpassed Hearts R's last known LTD going by Japan LTD Ranking.

Tales of Hearts R 73,324

My idea is that those increases happen really often when games sell 1-2k units. In fact, I do think that many games spend a lot of time in this range before falling below the 1k mark. Now, the novelty is that the market shrank so much that we are actually able to see what happens when sales are so low, and for a long time. Reve Unitia would have disappeared after a few weeks after the launch in 2012, when the 30th position was around 4-5k.

That makes sense as well.

 

[Graphics Horse]

--------------------------------------------------
|Week|        2013         |        2014         |
--------------------------------------------------
| 40 | 122.987 |   122.987 |  22.490 |    22.490 |
| 41 | 213.570 |   336.557 | 261.873 |   284.263 |
| 42 | 154.578 |   491.135 | 113.238 |   397.501 |
| 43 | 109.508 |   600.643 |  96.590 |   494.091 |
| 44 |  88.376 |   689.019 |  69.673 |   563.764 |
| 45 |  81.817 |   770.836 |  79.217 |   642.981 |
| 46 |  70.102 |   840.938 |  65.201 |   708.182 |
| 47 |  84.506 |   925.444 |  88.653 |   796.835 |
| 48 | 108.373 | 1.033.817 |         |           |
| 49 | 125.269 | 1.159.086 |         |           |
| 50 | 181.556 | 1.340.642 |         |           | -> YW2: SU
| 51 | 232.600 | 1.573.242 |         |           |
| 52 | 201.703 | 1.774.945 |         |           |
--------------------------------------------------

At least it sold more than last year this week! Still confident of this Q being better than last year's?

 

[L~A]

Media Create:

[WIU] Taiko no Tatsujin: Wii U Version! # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.11.21} (¥5.480) - 19.265 / NEW <16,25%> [Units shipped => ~118k]

Probably around 100k again this year

Isn't Taiko this year just an expanded version (with more songs)?

But anyway, that "bomba" isn't all that surprising when I think about it. I mean, last console Taiko was last year, so I'm sure families are more than happy with the first one for now.

 

[Mpl90]

Looking at specific 3DS SKUs, MC shows how regular New 3DS doubled its sales compared to last week, as well as regular old 3DS, while new 3DS XL just slightly rose. I think this is interesting.

 

[Kikujiro]

Awful numbers all around, I hope at least Japanese guys and girls are having more sex.

 

[Moor-Angol]

Awful numbers all around, I hope at least Japanese guys and girls are having more sex.

come to Roppongi on friday night and judge by yourself

 

[Shahed]

I thought this was Wii U Smash, PS4 DQ and PS Nova week? And here I was looking forward to some better numbers

 

[L~A]

I thought this was Wii U Smash, PS4 DQ and PS Nova week? And here I was looking faorward to some better numbers

Heh? Pretty sure none of those come out on the same week (maybe PSN and the DQ PS4). Smash Bros. comes out on Dec. 6.

 

[Mpl90]

This week's Famitsu has digital sales charts. Hiska-kun, you know what to do.

 

[Bruno MB]

Taiko no Tatsujin: Tokumori! shouldn't have any trouble selling its initial shipment during December / January unless it had a bigger shipment than the previous title which I doubt. Anyway, less than 10.000 units is a pitiful showing. Bandai Namco Games is experience with this series the same as Ubisoft with Just Dance although at least they still have 3DS.

Media Create:

[WIU] Taiko no Tatsujin: Wii U Version! # <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.11.21} (¥5.480) - 19.265 / NEW <16,25%> [Units shipped => ~118k]

Probably around 100k again this year

I was bored enough to look for the initial shipment for almost all titles.

[PS2] Taiko no Tatsujin: Tatacon de DODON ga DON (Namco) {2002.10.24} - 64.002 / NEW
[PS2] Taiko no Tatsujin: DOKI! Shinkyoku Darake no Haru Matsuri (Namco) {2003.03.27} - 102.940 / NEW
[PS2] Taiko no Tatsujin: Appare Sandaime (Namco) {2003.10.30} - 53.995 / NEW
[PS2] Taiko no Tatsujin: Waku Waku anime Matsuri (Namco) {2003.12.18} - 50.023 / NEW
[PS2] Taiko no Tatsujin: Atsumare! Matsuri da!! Yondaime (Namco) {2004.07.22} - 30.716 / NEW
[PS2] Taiko no Tatsujin: Go! Go! Godaime (Namco) {2004.12.09} - 29.381 / NEW <28,1%>
[PS2] Taiko no Tatsujin: Taiko Drum Master (Namco) {2005.03.17} - 3.203 / NEW <12,5%>
[PS2] Taiko no Tatsujin: Tobikkiri! Anime Special (Namco) {2005.08.04} - 10.130 / NEW <22,1%>
[PS2] Taiko no Tatsujin: Wai Wai Happy! Rokudaime (Namco) {2005.12.08} - 14.553 / NEW <24,7%>
[PS2] Taiko no Tatsujin: DON-KA! to Oomori Nanadaime (Bandai Namco Games) {2006.12.07} - 11.502 / NEW <26,8%>
[PSP] Taiko no Tatsujin: Portable (Namco) {2005.08.04} - 14.593 / NEW <55,6%>
[PSP] Taiko no Tatsujin: Portable 2 (Bandai Namco Games) {2006.09.07} - 12.370 / NEW <44,32%>
[NDS] Taiko no Tatsujin DS: Touch de Dokodon (Bandai Namco Games) {2007.07.26} - 93.909 / NEW <81,87%>
[NDS] Metcha! Taiko no Tatsujin DS: Nanatsu no Shima no Daibouken (Bandai Namco Games) {2008.04.24} - 55.950 / NEW <42,31%>
[WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii (Bandai Namco Games) {2008.12.11} - 105.941 / NEW <82,60%>
[WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Do Don to 2 Daime (Bandai Namco Games) {2009.11.19} - 28.282 / NEW <11,60%>
[NDS] Taiko no Tatsujin DS: Dororon! Yokai Daikessen!! (Bandai Namco Games) {2010.07.01} - 69.767 / NEW <46,03>
[WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Minna de Party 3 Daime (Bandai Namco Games) {2010.12.02} - 29.328 / NEW <19,30%>
[PSP] Taiko no Tatsujin: Portable DX (Bandai Namco Games) {2011.07.14} - 80.215 / NEW <58,39%>
[WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Kettei-Ban (Bandai Namco Games) {2011.11.23} - 32.098 / NEW <21,97%>
[3DS] Taiko no Tatsujin: Chibi Dragon to Fushigi na Orb (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.07.12} - 65.462 / NEW <45,26%>
[WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Chogouka-Ban (Bandai Namco Games) {2012.11.29} - 115.955 / NEW <55,61%>
[WIU] Taiko no Tatsujin: Wii U Version! (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.11.21} - 19.265 / NEW <16,25%>
[3DS] Taiko no Tatsujin: Don to Katsu no Jikuu Daibouken (Bandai Namco Games) {2014.06.26} - 62.247 / NEW <40-60%>
[WIU] Taiko no Tatsujin: Tokumori! (Bandai Namco Games) {2014.11.20} - 9.582 / NEW <0-20%>

Source: Famitsu and Media Create

 

[Shahed]

Heh? Pretty sure none of those come out on the same week (maybe PSN and the DQ PS4). Smash Bros. comes out on Dec. 6.

Either I've been misled badly, or I have a hopeless memory. Probably the latter...

 

[hiska-kun]

I thought this was Wii U Smash, PS4 DQ and PS Nova week? And here I was looking forward to some better numbers

Week 48 (27th of November)

Vita Value Pack Bundle
[PSV] Phantasy Star Nova
[PS3] Resident Evil HD Remaster
[3DS] New Etrian Odyssey 2

Week 49 (4th of December)

[3DS] Derby Stallion Gold
[3DS] Aikatsu: 365 Idol Days
[3DS] Attack on Titan: Chain
[WIU] Super Smash Bros for Wii U (6th of December)

Week 50 (11th of December)

PS4 + GTAV bundle
PS4 + Dragon Quest Heroes Bundle
[PS4] Grand Theft Auto V HD
[PS3] Shining Resonance
[3DS] Youkai Watch 2 Shin Uchi (13th of December)

Week 51 (18th of December)

[3DS] Final Fantasy Explorers
[PS3] Gundam Breaker
[PSV] Gundam Breaker
[PSV] Neptunia Re;birth 3: V

Week 52 (25th of December)

Nothing interesting

 

[L~A]

Week 48: Vita week.
Week 49: Nintendo week.
Week 50: Son.... Level-5 week.
Week 51: ???

(Just talking about the new releases).

I'm curious about Attack on Titan. Series's quite popular, movie just came out, but it's just a expansion. Last year, retailers and SC were caught totally off-guard. I got the feeling SC is gonna overship this time around.

 

[Hero of Legend]

[WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii (Bandai Namco Games) {2008.12.11} - 105.941 / NEW <82,60%>
[WII] Taiko no Tatsujin Wii: Do Don to 2 Daime (Bandai Namco Games) {2009.11.19} - 28.282 / NEW <11,60%>
[WIU] Taiko no Tatsujin: Wii U Version! (Bandai Namco Games) {2013.11.21} - 19.265 / NEW <16,25%>
[WIU] Taiko no Tatsujin: Tokumori! (Bandai Namco Games) {2014.11.20} - 9.582 / NEW <0-20%>

Source: Famitsu and Media Create

Huh.

 

[Shahed]

Ah so one each for the next 3 weeks? Not too bothered by Nova, but I'm looking forward to the impact Smash and the DQ Bundle will have on their respective console sales.

Is there not a PS4/360/XB1 SKU of Res Evil Remaster HD?

 

[LOCK]

Pokemon sold almost the same in both trackers.

1.5 million Pokemanz, let me show you them!

 

[vinnygambini]

Analysts were spot-on with Pokemon debut claiming it would do 1.5 million.

Do we have expectations going into it's second week since Monday was a holiday?

 

[ec0ec0]

RIP Cubic Ninja... this should have been it's week :,(

 

[hiska-kun]

Analysts were spot-on with Pokemon debut claiming it would do 1.5 million.

Do we have expectations going into it's second week since Monday was a holiday?

According to Chris, their expectations for second week were:
XY 2nd week = ORAS 2nd week.

01./01. [3DS] Pokemon X / Y # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2013.10.12} (¥4.800) - 473.151 / 2.339.721 (-75%)

 

[L~A]

Ah so one each for the next 3 weeks? Not too bothered by Nova, but I'm looking forward to the impact Smash and the DQ Bundle will have on their respective console sales.

Is there not a PS4/360/XB1 SKU of Res Evil Remaster HD?

Pretty sure only the PS3 got a retail release in Japan.

RIP Cubic Ninja... this should have been it's week :,(

It wasn't going to chart, even if the game wasn't hard to find.

 

[Orgen]

To be fair, shipments are always big before holidays beucase retailers expect to sell the most during late-November / December. Not saying that some of those games won't hit the bargain bins, but it's pretty common to see overshipment, in particular when kids and families are the primary target.

For example, last year Wii U Taiko game was apparently overshipped, but it was able to keep its price because it had legs (Amazon is a good indicator in this case).

Pokemon is not surprising since Nintendo has to avoid stock problems.

Taiko was already anticipated by the blog.
One Piece is the true bomba for me.

Yeah, the overshipment makes sense for Pokemon because of holidays (I didn't remember that Pokemon X&Y were launched in October).

Anyway, one piece is a bomba. And taiko is less than ever (even if it sells the first shipment in 2015).

Really surprised actually by the slight increase for Reve Unitia rather than a drop, isn't that really rare for the series? Actual legs showing? Not like there was anything special that would provoke it I would think.

Bomba price, no question about it.

Isn't Taiko this year just an expanded version (with more songs)?

But anyway, that "bomba" isn't all that surprising when I think about it. I mean, last console Taiko was last year, so I'm sure families are more than happy with the first one for now.

Wasn't taiko an annual title for the wii last gen? (Seeing the Bruno table). Even if it's an expansion there are more wii u sold than last year and taiko sold even less than last year (and we don't know the exact shipment). Not good