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[Road]

I'm feeling we need a chalkboard here...

 

[Mrbob]

When people say "Oh yeah! When PS4 is going to be announced, Wii U is finished, YADDA YADDA YADDA!!!" they really forget that E3 / Conferences haven't so much impact on the mass audience until people actually see the games promoted / near to the release, and the price being good for them. It seems like everyone forgot that 3DS was declared, in June 2010, like the undisputed winner of everything. One year later, we saw what happened.

I see two options really.

1) Japan publishers back PS4/NextXbox

2) Japan publishers back Wii U/PS3

Either way Sony wins. The first option would be better for them, though. There might be some in between crossover, but I don't expect much.

 

[farnham]

Just like NSMB, right? Oh wait, that already launched and has done absolutely fuck all for the system. I don't know how anyone can still expect big things from wii fit and wii party.

I think I had this discussion... oh it was with the guys that said MW2 will keep outselling NSMBWii..

NSMBU is going to sell until the WiiU successor comes. It doesnt really matter if its not selling extremely high numbers right now.

Also if games that have a 3 million sales last gen cant save the wiiu why bother with it anyway?

It doesn't need to be good or come out at launch. Sony just needs it to be announced along with a teaser. FFXIII took a while to come out and it even turned out to be complete shit. But it was still the catalyst for the ps3's turnaround in Japan. Brand power and all.

yeah and a teaser of a game that couldnt even reach 2 millions old last gen is going to drive sales by a mere trailer... oh the double standards.

 

[schuelma]

I see two options really.

1) Japan publishers back PS4/NextXbox

2) Japan publishers back Wii U/PS3

Either way Sony wins. The first option would be better for them, though. There might be some in between crossover, but I don't expect much.

I think it goes deeper than that.

For games designed to appeal to the West, then yes.

For games designed for Japan, the option is probably 3DS or Wii U/PS3/PS4.

 

[Nirolak]

Games designed for Japan could simply be handheld. That market seems less risky in Japan right now.

Yeah I think that's why he included 3DS.

 

[schuelma]

Games designed for Japan could simply be handheld. That market seems less risky in Japan right now.

True, but I think certain genres will still be mostly on consoles, like musou games

 

[H_Prestige]

I think I had this discussion... oh it was with the guys that said MW2 will keep outselling NSMBWii..

NSMBU is going to sell until the WiiU successor comes. It doesnt really matter if its not selling extremely high numbers right now.

Also if games that have a 3 million sales last gen cant save the wiiu why bother with it anyway?



yeah and a teaser of a game that couldnt even reach 2 millions old last gen is going to drive sales by a mere trailer... oh the double standards.

FF attracted a good portion of Japanese console players, and a lot of other franchises were drawn to the ps3 as a result. That's why the ps3 was able to carve out its own sector in handheld country.

NSMB U sales are bound by Wii U sales. It's not a system mover, and neither is wii fit. If system sales are shit, NSMB sales will be shit. It absolutely does matter to Nintendo because they thought this franchise would be like COD or something. They made an error in judgement, one of many in this whole wii u fiasco.

 

[schuelma]

FF attracted a good portion of Japanese console players, and a lot of other franchises were drawn to the ps3 as a result. That's why the ps3 was able to carve out its own sector in handheld

Eventually maybe, but your initial argument was that the mere announcement would cause great excitement and overshadow Wii U. That absolutely did not happen with PS3.

 

[farnham]

FF attracted a good portion of Japanese console players, and a lot of other franchises were drawn to the ps3 as a result. That's why the ps3 was able to carve out its own sector in handheld country.

NSMB U sales are bound by Wii U sales. It's not a system mover, and neither is wii fit. If system sales are shit, NSMB sales will be shit. It absolutely does matter to Nintendo because they thought this franchise would be like COD or something. They made an error in judgement, one of many in this whole wii u fiasco.

Nintendo made a horrible mistake by only releasing nintendoland and NSMBU for the first 6 month of the consoles life. but NSMBU is going to keep selling and its certainly a system mover. whatever nintendo sold at the moment was sold mostly due to NSMBU (to a lesser extent Monster hunter and Nintendoland)

Normally you wouldnt buy a system that only has 2 games in 6 month. Im sure once nintendo releases their big guns NSMBU will keep selling again and will also attract people again.

Also your argument is flawed as you are saying wii fit will not units as NSMBU failed to move units (which is not the case). According to your logic no nintendo game will ever move units.

 

[Sandfox]

FF attracted a good portion of Japanese console players, and a lot of other franchises were drawn to the ps3 as a result. That's why the ps3 was able to carve out its own sector in handheld country.

So you're assuming that people are going to buy the console early over the promise of an FF game after the problems they had with 13,Versus, and 14?

 

[test_account]

I wonder what Wii Fit U will be priced at. For comparison Wii Fit was priced at 8800 yen (Balance Board included) and Wii Fit Plus was priced at 2000 yen (standalone version).

I also wonder how many SKUs there will be. I know for sure that there will be one bundled with the Balance Board and one standalone version (for those who already own the Blanace Board). But i'm wondering the the standalone version will include that pedometer or not, or if there will even be a 3rd SKU that includes it.

 

[saichi]

Where it's on track to sell less than the Vita.

This is news to me.

FF attracted a good portion of Japanese console players, and a lot of other franchises were drawn to the ps3 as a result. That's why the ps3 was able to carve out its own sector in handheld country.

And first party games is why Nintendo was able to carve out its own sector in handheld country. One thing we know for sure is Wii U will get first party games from Nintendo.

NSMB U sales are bound by Wii U sales. It's not a system mover, and neither is wii fit. If system sales are shit, NSMB sales will be shit. It absolutely does matter to Nintendo because they thought this franchise would be like COD or something. They made an error in judgement, one of many in this whole wii u fiasco.

Which game's sale number is not bound by the system sales? By your definition, there is no system movers since even COD would sell like shit when system sales are shit (see VITA).

 

[H_Prestige]

Nintendo made a horrible mistake by only releasing nintendoland and NSMBU for the first 6 month of the consoles life. but NSMBU is going to keep selling and its certainly a system mover. whatever nintendo sold at the moment was sold mostly due to NSMBU (to a lesser extent Monster hunter and Nintendoland)

Normally you wouldnt buy a system that only has 2 games in 6 month. Im sure once nintendo releases their big guns NSMBU will keep selling again and will also attract people again.

Also your argument is flawed as you are saying wii fit will not units as NSMBU failed to move units (which is not the case). According to your logic no nintendo game will ever move units.

Galaxy will move units. Zelda will move units. Mario Kart will move units. Those are longstanding franchises with dedicated fan base. The same is not true of NSMB and whatever Wii____ game.

Wii will be selling 10k or less for much of this year. How much do you think NSMB will sell weekly?

Which game's sale number is not bound by the system sales? By your definition, there is no system movers since even COD would sell like shit when system sales are shit (see VITA).

Yeah, COD vita is totally the same thing as the console versions. You can't honestly think next gen COD will sell poorly because the vita version bombed, can you?

 

[pieatorium]

This is news to me.

EU is unknown, he probably misinterpreted/misheard the fact that it's a slower start than the Vita in the UK (after i think 8 weeks at the time that was mentioned) which comparing a feb launch to a holiday one for WiiU is even more disappointing for the U.

It's hard to compare the rest of EU, the UK is the best market for Vita there and the second best for WiiU (by Nintendo's market % data from their financials) but we don't have enough data to really make any calls.

 

[Skyzard]

Yeah, COD vita is totally the same thing as the console versions. You can't honestly think next gen COD will sell poorly because the vita version bombed, can you?

Did it really bomb? I saw it beating out Assassins Creed III most of the time in EU iirc.

 

[H_Prestige]

Did it really bomb? I saw it beating out Assassins Creed III most of the time in EU iirc.

Everything on Vita bombed. The Vita itself bombed.

 

[Skyzard]

Everything on Vita bombed. The Vita itself bombed.

Oh right yeah.

 

[donny2112]

EU is unknown

This is a Japanese sales thread. Maybe he meant weekly numbers?

Edit:
Oh, it's kind of ambiguous, but, yeah, he probably was referring to the "Europe" part of the quote. *shrugs* Europe sales will be meaningless if they can't turn it around in Japan. First things first.

 

[michaelius]

Everything on Vita bombed. The Vita itself bombed.

A lot of 3rd parties are probably praying their Wii U launch games bomb as hard

 

[Chris1964]

I expect 180 degrees turn from farnham when Wii Fit U and Wii Party U underperform big time.

 

[saichi]

Yeah, COD vita is totally the same thing as the console versions. You can't honestly think next gen COD will sell poorly because the vita version bombed, can you?

I'm fully expect next COD to sell "poorly" after 2 months when launching with next gen console.

Everything on Vita bombed. The Vita itself bombed.

Based on your standard below, it certainly bombed since the VITA sale is shit so all game sales on that system are shit.

NSMB U sales are bound by Wii U sales. It's not a system mover, and neither is wii fit. If system sales are shit, NSMB sales will be shit. It absolutely does matter to Nintendo because they thought this franchise would be like COD or something.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

So did the first-day report guy forget to unlock his post or what.

And ST from Dengeki:

PAS PS3 - 60%
PAS PSV - 45%

 

[grimshawish]

PAS PS3 - 60%
PAS PSV - 45%

Youch.

 

[H_Prestige]

I'm fully expect next COD to sell "poorly" after 2 months when launching with next gen console.

I don't know what to tell you

 

[farnham]

Galaxy will move units. Zelda will move units. Mario Kart will move units. Those are longstanding franchises with dedicated fan base. The same is not true of NSMB and whatever Wii____ game.

Wii will be selling 10k or less for much of this year. How much do you think NSMB will sell weekly?



Yeah, COD vita is totally the same thing as the console versions. You can't honestly think next gen COD will sell poorly because the vita version bombed, can you?

Galaxy and zelda are much weaker titles than wii fit or wii party

 

[H_Prestige]

Galaxy and zelda are much weaker titles than wii fit or wii party

On the Wii they were. On the Wii U they will be much stronger.

 

[donny2112]

High price + casual games = lower sales. I sure hope games like Wii Fit U and Wii Party U get a re-release at a discount price once the Wii U price itself finally comes down. That could help with the Wii U some, but until then it's like a PS3 and Minna no Golf 5. Going to sell less than what would be otherwise good, due to the system price.

 

[H_Prestige]

High price + casual games = lower sales. I sure hope games like Wii Fit U and Wii Party U get a re-release at a discount price once the Wii U price itself finally comes down. That could help with the Wii U some, but until then it's like a PS3 and Minna no Golf 5. Going to sell less than what would be otherwise good, due to the system price.

Isn't the Wii U only a bit more expensive than the ps3?

 

[extralite]

On the Wii they were. On the Wii U they will be much stronger.

It's unlikely that the next 3D Mario will sell much more than the previous ones. Unless it tries to appease 2D and 3D like 3D Land. Console Zelda even with a decent boost is just not that big anymore. Wii _ franchise would need to drop massively to go below Zelda level. Although they'll probably need more time to outsell something like Mario Universe, it's quite likely some of them will eventually (Sports and Fit). And NSMBU should eventually outsell Mario 3D as well, maybe even already from beginning to end. It depends on when 3D Mario will arrive.

Isn't the Wii U only a bit more expensive than the ps3?

MinGolf 5 released in 2007, when the PS3 was much more expensive.

Edit: Wii U now is only slightly more expensive than the PS3 was when FFXIII came out. The premium version that is.

Edit 2:

Red is MinGolf4 on PS2, blue is MinGolf5 on PS3. Here you can see what the high PS3 price (~40000 yen) did to that franchise. Wii U is only slightly more expensive than Wii though (~25000 yen vs. 20000 yen). How much do you expect Wii _ franchise to drop?

 

[donny2112]

Isn't the Wii U only a bit more expensive than the ps3?

Is the PS3 a bastion of casual-oriented titles?

Wii had Wii Sports, which people were willing to pay a high price for to get access. Once they had the system, the other titles weren't as much an investment. Wii U has no Wii Sports system seller, so the casual titles aren't going to be as big a draw on their own. Therefore, the price becomes a larger issue. Japan is historically less price-sensitive than other regions, but I get the impression that the economy isn't gangbusters there, either.

As said, hopefully Wii Party U (especially) and Wii Fit U (probably just a renewed ad push would do it, since the standalone should already be cheap) get a lower-price re-release once the Wii U price comes down another 5-10K Yen. A Player's Choice line much, much earlier in the gen would be a good thing all-around for Wii U compared to Wii, in fact. Minna no Golf 5 BEST and BEST reprint have sold ~250K total, as a reference.

 

[extralite]

Some things to add what was already said: Nintendo's strategy usually is to have cheap hardware and retain high software prices. PS beat Nintendo because despite the high hardware price games were comparatively cheap to begin with and then there's also their budget lines. From PS2 and on game prices have started to rise again though, but they tend to get cheaper because of the used market and the budget lines.

With Wii, 3DS and Wii U Nintendo followed Sony precedent and kept raising hardware prices. It worked well for Wii because of its killer app Wii Sports, not so much for 3DS and Wii U. The question is, can they keep their evergreen strategy and retain high software prices despite raising the entry cost?* Adjusting to Sony's strategy comes with a price. Many core games on Wii didn't just bomb hard, they also got the Player's Choice budget line. Maybe donny is right and they'll have to resort this sort of pricing strategy more and more for Wii U as well.

Nintendo would do well not to imitate too much of Sony's strategy. Sony really almost ruined the core console market with the ridiculous PS3 price.

*They're definitely trying to do this by having the same prices for DD on eShop. It works reasonably well on 3DS because the hardware is cheap and the 1st party game prices moderate.

 

[VAPitts]

Price cut now does nothing much except increase losses. Wait for a game being sold that people may want to buy since it's with a price cut. Wii Fit U seems the next major game that might fit that billing. No, it is not "too late" already (at least for Japan; With the Ubisoft comments/actions, Western support seems already gone, if it was ever even there ...).

thank u, please educate the uneducated

 

[electroplankton]

I expect 180 degrees turn from farnham when Wii Fit U and Wii Party U underperform big time.

I think everyone is expecting those tow games to underperform a lot...?

 

[BriBri]

I think everyone is expecting those tow games to underperform a lot...?

So if everyone expects it including Iwata, then does that really mean it underperforms?

 

[electroplankton]

So if everyone expects it including Iwata, then does that really mean it underperforms?

Wii Fit on Wii sold 3.5 million units in Japan, and overall, the franchise sold more than 40 million units worldwide. I think even Nintendo expects a decline with respect to previous entries.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Dragon Quest 7 - 50% first day sell-through

 

[cw_sasuke]

Dragon Quest 7 - 50% first day sell-through

Do we have any shipment information?

 

[Chris1964]

New releases {2013.02.14}

[PSV] Sakura-Sou no Pet na Kanojo # <ADV> (Kadokawa Games) (¥6.804)
[PSV] Sakura-Sou no Pet na Kanojo [Limited Edition] <ADV> (Kadokawa Games) (¥11.004)
[PSV] Silent Hill: Book of Memories <ADV> (Konami) (¥5.980)

[PSP] Battle Robot Soul <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) (¥6.280)
[PSP] Sakura-Sou no Pet na Kanojo # <ADV> (Kadokawa Games) (¥6.279)
[PSP] Sakura-Sou no Pet na Kanojo [Limited Edition] <ADV> (Kadokawa Games) (¥10.479)
[PSP] Harukanaru Toki no Naka de: Hachiyoushou # <ADV> (Koei Tecmo) (¥5.040)
[PSP] Harukanaru Toki no Naka de: Hachiyoushou [Treasure Box] <ADV> (Koei Tecmo) (¥12.390)

[PS3] Combat Wings: The Great Battles of World War II <ACT> (CyberFront) (¥7.140)
[PS3] Lollipop Chainsaw: Valentine Edition <ACT> (Kadokawa Games) (¥4.980)
[PS3] Lollipop Chainsaw (Kadokawa Games Collection) <ACT> (Kadokawa Games) (¥3.980)
[PS3] Dragon's Dogma (PlayStation 3 the Best) <ACT> (Capcom) (¥2.990)

[360] Ginga Force <STG> (Qute) (¥7.140)
[360] Combat Wings: The Great Battles of World War II <ACT> (CyberFront) (¥7.140)
[360] Lollipop Chainsaw: Valentine Edition <ACT> (Kadokawa Games) (¥4.980)
[360] Lollipop Chainsaw (Kadokawa Games Collection) <ACT> (Kadokawa Games) (¥3.980)
[360] Dragon's Dogma (Platinum Collection) <ACT> (Capcom) (¥2.990)
[360] Gears of War 3 (Platinum Collection) <ACT> (Microsoft Game Studios) (¥2.940)
[360] Forza Motorsport 4 (Platinum Collection) <RCE> (Microsoft Game Studios) (¥2.940)
[360] Dance Central 2 (Platinum Collection) <ACT> (Microsoft Game Studios) (¥2.940)
[360] Kinect Star Wars (Platinum Collection) <ACT> (Microsoft Game Studios) (¥2.940)
[360] Kinect Rush: A Disney-Pixar Adventure (Platinum Collection) <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) (¥2.940)
[360] Kinect: Disneyland Adventures (Platinum Collection) <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) (¥2.940)

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Do we have any shipment information?

Don't think so, but looking back, SE sent a PR about DQ6 breaking 1M shipment on launch day.

http://www.famitsu.com/game/news/1231649_1124.html

DQ6
909,981 First Week / 29M DS LTD

DQ7
? First Week / 10M 3DS LTD

 

[frankie_baby]

Dragon Quest 7 - 50% first day sell-through

a SE 3ds game not sabotaged by undershipment?

 

[electroplankton]

Dragon Quest 7 - 50% first day sell-through

Nice!

 

[BriBri]

Wii Fit on Wii sold 3.5 million units in Japan, and overall, the franchise sold more than 40 million units worldwide. I think even Nintendo expects a decline with respect to previous entries.

Exactly. So if their expectations are lowered then it only can underperform if it performs lower than those lower expectations.

And I'll type up later but the eShop charts have four retail titles in the top twenty! Dragon Quest VII is number 2 and Animal Crossing is still number 1.

 

[Nekki]

Nice ST for DQVII! Wonder if it'll open above 700k

Prediction League 2013 - Entire Year

Predict how much these items will sell in the entire year of 2013:

[3DS] Hardware - 6.500.000
[WIU] Hardware - 1.800.000
[3DS] Pokemon X/Y - 4.900.000
[3DS] Monster Hunter 4 - 2.500.000
[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 2.000.000
[3DS] Dragon Quest VII - 2.200.000
[3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 - 1.100.000
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U - 1.000.000
[WIU] Nintendo Land - 700.000

 

[electroplankton]

Exactly. So if their expectations are lowered then it only can underperform if it performs lower than those lower expectations.

And I'll type up later but the eShop charts have four retail titles in the top twenty! Dragon Quest VII is number 2 and Animal Crossing is still number 1.

Of course. I don't think Nintendo is crazy enough to have high expectations for Wii Fit U. To me, it seems a software they had to do also because many people bought Wii for that game.

 

[metalslimer]

Of course. I don't think Nintendo is crazy enough to have high expectations for Wii Fit U. To me, it seems a software they had to do also because many people bought Wii for that game.

Did we ever see their expectations for Brain Training? I think Nintendo realized very quickly on the 3DS after Nintendogs+Cats didn't sell millions of copies that it wasn't going to be the same market.

 

[MasterSheen]

50% sell through, is that good? Seems kinda low.

 

[michaelius]

Of course. I don't think Nintendo is crazy enough to have high expectations for Wii Fit U. To me, it seems a software they had to do also because many people bought Wii for that game.

They expected 24 milions software till end of March and i think Wii Fit U was supposed to come out in launch window first ?

50% sell through, is that good? Seems kinda low.

It's perfectly normal.

 

[electroplankton]

50% sell through, is that good? Seems kinda low.

It's the first day, so to me it seems good.

 

[metalslimer]

They expected 24 milions software till end of March and i think Wii Fit U was supposed to come out in launch window first ?

The original Wii Fit wasn't a megablockbuster at launch to begin with so I doubt they expected a huge contribution from it towards that 24 million. That was just Nintendo far overestimating the potential of that launch window lineup they had and especially NSMBU.

 

[MikeE21286]

Ps4 needs to do something miraculous to pull Japan out of its handheld state.