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[Mpl90]

Come on Japan...New year is like a whole friggin week ago!

Tomorrow, my friend.
...Maybe.

 

[LayLa]

Vinnk's Hamlet?

Alas! poor Vita. I knew him, Horatio; a fellow of infinite jest, of most excellent fancy

3D, or not 3D, — that is the question: —
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous crosstalk

Something is rotten in the state of Chartzzz

etc etc

 

[Spiegel]

Is 5.5m hardware shipment really that far out of reach? PS3 had a slower start in Japan/NA and a much later European launch and still managed 3.5m shipped worldwide through its first March. (Notably, after being adjusted down from the 5.5m production number they gave previously.) It's the next quarters which will look a lot less impressive compared to a Wii with unfulfilled demand.

PS3:
First 'Q2 shipment after launch (Jan-March)' was 1.7M. That's mostly the 'explosive' european launch where more than 1M units were shipped on day one (1.2M rumored for the quarter iirc). Wii U first Q2 shipment should be lower considering it won't launch anywhere, it's seemingly tanking in Europe and not doing that great elsewhere (this could change if the drops are not that bad when NPD/M-C numbers are released).

Unless Nintendo overshipped in the launch quarter (4 million or so) I don't see them reaching the target. And even if they did, I'm not sure if retailers would take another 1.5M for this quarter.

 

[shinra-bansho]

PS3:
First 'Q2 shipment after launch (Jan-March)' was 1.7M. That's mostly the 'explosive' european launch where more than 1M units were shipped on day one (1.2M rumored for the quarter iirc). Wii U first Q2 shipment should be lower considering it won't launch anywhere, it's seemingly tanking in Europe and not doing that great elsewhere (this could change if the drops are not that bad when NPD/M-C numbers are released).

Unless Nintendo overshipped in the launch quarter (4 million or so) I don't see them reaching the target. And even if they did, I'm not sure if retailers would take another 1.5M for this quarter.

Was going to point the bolded out (although I have it as 1.8M).

I can't conceive of how they'd get retailers to take on the italicized, it would be a ridiculous overshipment considering even if the Wii U matches the Wii's second NPD that would still leave between 1.5 and 2 million units in the channel heading into January (on the assumption that sell-through in PAL land has been at least 300K.)

The PS3 comparatively only left ~550K in the retail channel and still only managed to ship 1.8M in the next quarter because of the European launch shipment.

 

[Chris1964]

PS3:
First 'Q2 shipment after launch (Jan-March)' was 1.7M. That's mostly the 'explosive' european launch where more than 1M units were shipped on day one (1.2M rumored for the quarter iirc). Wii U first Q2 shipment should be lower considering it won't launch anywhere, it's seemingly tanking in Europe and not doing that great elsewhere (this could change if the drops are not that bad when NPD/M-C numbers are released).

Unless Nintendo overshipped in the launch quarter (4 million or so) I don't see them reaching the target. And even if they did, I'm not sure if retailers would take another 1.5M for this quarter.

From what I learn European numbers are as bad as we think and I wouldn't hold my breath for a spectacular December NPD. As for known/unknown last week's Japanese numbers they'll be what everyone would expect after third week sales.

January, February and March will be brutal, nothing can change that.

 

[schuelma]

From what I learn European numbers are as bad as we think and I wouldn't hold my breath for a spectacular December NPD. As for known/unknown last week's Japanese numbers they'll be what everyone would expect after third week sales.

January, February and March will be brutal, nothing can change that.

Yeah I would say tepid at best would be fair to describe launch.

The baffling thing to me is Nintendo apparently thought they were fine and dandy since supposed launch window software is not dated or already slipping (Pikmin).

I do think Japan is going to prove to be by far their strongest region, at least initially...but worldwide things look rough short term.

 

[disco]

Alas! poor Vita. I knew him, Horatio; a fellow of infinite jest, of most excellent fancy

3D, or not 3D, — that is the question: —
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous crosstalk

Something is rotten in the state of Chartzzz

etc etc

Incredible.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

I do think Japan is going to prove to be by far their strongest region, at least initially...but worldwide things look rough short term.

For that to happen they'll need to start nailing down dates and announcing 3rd party games.

 

[Mpl90]

As a reminder: in some hours we should see Famitsu Week 52 Top 30. It could be few hours, or it could be around 20 hours before we see the chart.

 

[schuelma]

For that to happen they'll need to start nailing down dates and announcing 3rd party games.

I'm still expecting a cratering in Japan Q1- just saying that relative to the rest of the world I think that things will be better in Japan. Software sales are holding up well IMO.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

As a reminder: in some hours we should see Famitsu Week 52 Top 30. It could be few hours, or it could be around 20 hours before we see the chart.

At all events, if I'm reading this correctly, we are definitely going to have week 52 in less than 24 hours, are we?

 

[Nirolak]

I do think Japan is going to prove to be by far their strongest region, at least initially...but worldwide things look rough short term.

As a follow-up to our discussion in the other thread, which third party games do you feel it's feasible will have a Wii U version announced for Japan in the first half of the year?

I'm mainly wondering since we've seen quite a few games announced recently, some of which are releasing relatively soon, and I'm not sure how many of those the developers are going to wait until a month before launch and say "Oh and it's also coming for Wii U!".

 

[Celine]

Vinnk's Hamlet?

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

As a follow-up to our discussion in the other thread, which third party games do you feel it's feasible will have a Wii U version announced for Japan in the first half of the year?

I'm mainly wondering since we've seen quite a few games announced recently, some of which are releasing relatively soon, and I'm not sure how many of those the developers are going to wait until a month before launch and say "Oh and it's also coming for Wii U!".

For Wii U Q1/Q2 3rd party stuff, I'm really only expecting the Konami retailer leaks (PES2013, Deca Sports) and maybe a late RE6 port.

I actually wonder if we'll see some more Wii upports though? Stuff like Taiko Super DLX and IE Strikers Go might make for fast, cheap, profitable releases?

 

[schuelma]

As a follow-up to our discussion in the other thread, which third party games do you feel it's feasible will have a Wii U version announced for Japan in the first half of the year?

I'm mainly wondering since we've seen quite a few games announced recently, some of which are releasing relatively soon, and I'm not sure how many of those the developers are going to wait until a month before launch and say "Oh and it's also coming for Wii U!".

Announced first half of the year or released?

The obvious title I assume is coming would be RE6 Super Special Its Good I Swear version. If that Revelations leak is legit I would think Wii U is a viable option along with PS360.

It seems like Nintendo has a good relationship with TecmoKoei so I think versions of Dead or Alive and DW7 are possibilities.

I get the impression you think I am in the boat that 3rd parties have a ton of awesome unannounced 3rd party games about to be revealed. I don't think that at all. I think there are probably a few titles coming out later this Spring that haven't been announced, but nothing too major.

 

[Nirolak]

For Wii U Q1/Q2 3rd party stuff, I'm really only expecting the Konami retailer leaks (PES2013, Deca Sports) and maybe a late RE6 port.

I actually wonder if we'll see some more Wii upports though? Stuff like Taiko Super DLX and IE Strikers Go might make for fast, cheap, profitable releases?

That's actually kind of an interesting angle. Taking an existing Wii game, and even making an improved version, could conceivably let someone get a game out while there's little competition.

I mean, to an extent this has already happened with Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest X.

Announced first half of the year or released?

The obvious title I assume is coming would be RE6 Super Special Its Good I Swear version. If that Revelations leak is legit I would think Wii U is a viable option along with PS360.

It seems like Nintendo has a good relationship with TecmoKoei so I think versions of Dead or Alive and DW7 are possibilities.

I get the impression you think I am in the boat that 3rd parties have a ton of awesome unannounced 3rd party games about to be revealed. I don't think that at all. I think there are probably a few titles coming out later this Spring that haven't been announced, but nothing too major.

Actually I think you're quite reasonable with your expectations, which is why I'm asking, to get a perspective that's somewhat from the other side of the proverbial fence.

Like, I'm legitimately curious if there are things I don't think of that are plausible when I'm pondering what is releasing next for the system. You're more optimistic about the system than quite a few of the people I talk to, but not in an unreasonable way, so I think it's a good perspective to make sure gets sounded out in these threads.

And yes, the Wii U isn't out in South Korea, so the Wii U version being absent on that list certainly doesn't rule Revelations HD out.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

DOA5 is another good possibility, and probably something Nintebdo would foot the bill for overseas. I think DW8 might skip Wii U initially and get a "Hyper" release later on.

I was surprised One Piece Musou 2 wasn't announced for Wii U given the franchise's past success on Nintendo systems. Maybe Sony incentivized it staying on just their platforms? It's also odd that 3DS hasn't gotten more One Piece after UCSP was such a hit.

 

[Kacho]

If that Revelations leak is legit I would think Wii U is a viable option along with PS360.

For real? That's crazy.

It seems like Nintendo has a good relationship with TecmoKoei so I think versions of Dead or Alive and DW7 are possibilities.

I'm personally awaiting the inevitable announcement of DoA5 Wii U edition. DW7 seems like a lock. Wasn't Hokuto Musou 2 the #1 pre-order for the Wii U?

I get the impression you think I am in the boat that 3rd parties have a ton of awesome unannounced 3rd party games about to be revealed. I don't think that at all. I think there are probably a few titles coming out later this Spring that haven't been announced, but nothing too major.

Call it misguided, but I imagine we will see a similar barrage of 3rd party announcements like we saw on the 3DS back in 2011.

 

[Mpl90]

DOA5 is another good possibility, and probably something Nintebdo would foot the bill for overseas. I think DW8 might skip Wii U initially and get a "Hyper" release later on.

I was surprised One Piece Musou 2 wasn't announced for Wii U given the franchise's past success on Nintendo systems. Maybe Sony incentivized it staying on just their platforms? It's also odd that 3DS hasn't gotten more One Piece after UCSP was such a hit.

Last week we discovered UCSP did 323k ( Dengeki), where's my UC3 on 3DS Namco.

 

[Tratorn]

Btw. did anything release in week 52 besides Fantasy Life?
I mean for any console, not just 3DS.

 

[schuelma]

Actually I think you're quite reasonable with your expectations, which is why I'm asking, to get a perspective that's somewhat from the other side of the proverbial fence.

Like, I'm legitimately curious if there are things I don't think of that are plausible when I'm pondering what is releasing next for the system. You're more optimistic about the system than quite a few of the people I talk to, but not in an unreasonable way, so I think it's a good perspective to make sure gets sounded out in these threads.

And yes, the Wii U isn't out in South Korea, so the Wii U version being absent on that list certainly doesn't rule Revelations HD out.

Gotcha- sorry if I came off as overly defensive.

Overall, I think Tecmo Koei and Capcom are the best bets for quality support given their track record.

A few thoughts:

-I know the only Capcom software announced was MH 3G HD, but that's a pretty significant title to have available at launch, and I think it portends decently for Capcom support for Japanese-centric titles at the very least.

-When looking towards future 3rd party support, I think its logical to look at what franchises were also on Wii. Using that metric, I would say Taiko Drum and Inazuma are locks for the platform, probably next holiday.

-Along the same lines, I would think that Basara and Samurai Warriors are good bets for PS3/Wii U releases.

- SE is the big question mark. DQX is nice, but I almost consider that forced support since Wii died off so quickly. Obvious the lack of announcements so far is troubling.

- I expect nothing from Konami.

-Namco is interesting. I expected good support since they were generally pretty good on Wii and the whole Smash collaboration. But so far nothing but Tekken and Tank Tank Tank.

 

[Scum]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Wii & Gamecube up ports/remakes, as well as a few already released 360/PS3 announcements available on the eShop to "plug" the holes.
First up, Bayonetta. Available to download between 11pm - 3am. :<

 

[schuelma]

I've said it before and I'll say it again. Wii & Gamecube up ports/remakes, as well as a few already released 360/PS3 announcements available on the eShop to "plug" the holes.
First up, Bayonetta. Available to download between 11pm - 3am. :<

Yeah frankly I thought this was a no brainer and we would see a decent amount of these titles this year to plug the gap.

But no brainers and Nintendo often do not match.

 

[Nirolak]

Gotcha- sorry if I came off as overly defensive.

Overall, I think Tecmo Koei and Capcom are the best bets for quality support given their track record.

A few thoughts:

-I know the only Capcom software announced was MH 3G HD, but that's a pretty significant title to have available at launch, and I think it portends decently for Capcom support for Japanese-centric titles at the very least.

-When looking towards future 3rd party support, I think its logical to look at what franchises were also on Wii. Using that metric, I would say Taiko Drum and Inazuma are locks for the platform, probably next holiday.

-Along the same lines, I would think that Basara and Samurai Warriors are good bets for PS3/Wii U releases.

- SE is the big question mark. DQX is nice, but I almost consider that forced support since Wii died off so quickly. Obvious the lack of announcements so far is troubling.

- I expect nothing from Konami.

-Namco is interesting. I expected good support since they were generally pretty good on Wii and the whole Smash collaboration. But so far nothing but Tekken and Tank Tank Tank.

For Namco Bandai, I would like to throw one potentially larger title onto the list.

Given that Namco is even willing to repeatedly throw Tales at the Vita, I feel they would generally be able to be swayed to put an entry on the Wii U, at least on the scope of a remake.

Given that Tales of Symphonia's 10th anniversary is coming up, that seems like a decent potential candidate from them. However, I wouldn't expect such a thing until Fall.

Speaking of the Fall though, I feel both the 3DS and even the Vita saw a notable uptick in at least their raw game count one year out from their release. Certainly the Vita's line-up isn't bowl you over amazing, but it is much better than it was in Q4. As such, I would expect at least a handful of Wii U Fall titles to appear, with at least 2-3 of them being low-to-mid-tier-ish exclusives, unless things go incredibly south before we get there.

 

[schuelma]

For Namco Bandai, I would like to throw one potentially larger title onto the list.

Given that Namco is even willing to repeatedly throw Tales at the Vita, I feel they would generally be able to be swayed to put an entry on the Wii U, at least on the scope of a remake.

Given that Tales of Symphonia's 10th anniversary is coming up, that seems like a decent potential candidate from them. However, I wouldn't expect such a thing until Fall.

.

Yeah, I thought ToS remake was a distinct possibility for a while- but I think the Tales producer laughed off the idea of a Wii U game a while back which made me mentally cross that off the list (though maybe he was talking about the mainline series, I dunno).

I do expect some sort of Tales game eventually.

 

[Mpl90]

Yeah, I thought ToS remake was a distinct possibility for a while- but I think the Tales producer laughed off the idea of a Wii U game a while back which made me mentally cross that off the list (though maybe he was talking about the mainline series, I dunno).

I do expect some sort of Tales game eventually.

I hope we'll see a Tales of game on 3DS too. I can't think Namco won't release a 3DS Tales of in 2013.

 

[Scum]

I really hope Iwata holds true to his word on resurrecting IPs. I'd love to see long since forgotten titles show up in one for or another.

Yeah frankly I thought this was a no brainer and we would see a decent amount of these titles this year to plug the gap.

But no brainers and Nintendo often do not match.

I think they'll get there. Put it going to be a matter of when. :-/

 

[electroplankton]

I hope we'll see a Tales of game on 3DS too. I can't think Namco won't release a 3DS Tales of in 2013.

Given the situation, we may be able to finally see a Tales of selling better on a Nintendo handheld than on a Sony one.

 

[Datschge]

^^^ The Abyss port is already selling better than the Innocence demake.


The only sure thing about Bandai Namco Games' handling of the Tales series is their incompetence. And without a semi-independent Tales Studio I don't think the developer side has much say about the platform anymore either.

 

[Diddy Kong]

But no brainers and Nintendo often do not match.

True, true. :-|

 

[Kacho]

I really hope Iwata holds true to his word on resurrecting IPs. I'd love to see long since forgotten titles show up in one for or another.

Yep. I was thinking about this last night, actually. I'd love to see the Wii U be the niche Japanese gaming console.

 

[Spiegel]

Yeah, I really can't understand why Namco is doing these shitty 3D Tales remakes on Vita. They must be incredibly cheap to make.

 

[Nirolak]

Okay so I found what schuelma was talking about:

October 16, 2012

— Can I ask your thoughts on the Wii U?

Baba: We don’t have any plans at the time [to bring the Tales series to Wii U]. But the Wii U is very unique hardware, which has one big screen [on the TV] and one small screen [on the controller], but with the console for development of an RPG, the players need to play for a long time, so we need to create a game in which the gameplay will help players feel less stress.

Source: http://gematsu.com/2012/10/interview-tales-producer-hideo-baba-on-tales-of-xillia-more

 

[muu]

I have a hard time seeing most of the other mid-tier franchises that went 'HD,' coming to the WiiU in the next year or so. There isn't the purchasing population that would bother considering how much it costs to create yet another HD version of their game (which I believe a lot of people grossly underestimate, especially for early-lifecycle games where devs are still getting their feet wet in the hadware).

I suppose Tales has a chance -- they're clearly struggling to make their games 'HD,' and they likely won't benefit any from having a more powerful PS4/720 to develop on. Falcom games would probably work as well, if the company heads didn't openly admit to hating Nintendo.

 

[Sadist]

Well Baba dit mention the fanbase being on Vita and PS3

 

[Nirolak]

I have a hard time seeing most of the other mid-tier franchises that went 'HD,' coming to the WiiU in the next year or so. There isn't the purchasing population that would bother considering how much it costs to create yet another HD version of their game (which I believe a lot of people grossly underestimate, especially for early-lifecycle games where devs are still getting their feet wet in the hadware).

I suppose Tales has a chance -- they're clearly struggling to make their games 'HD,' and they likely won't benefit any from having a more powerful PS4/720 to develop on. Falcom games would probably work as well, if the company heads didn't openly admit to hating Nintendo.

By HD in this circumstance, I'm imagining the standard mid-tier strategy of running a PS2 game in 720p with questionable performance.

But yeah, I'm not sure how the engineer count is at Japanese developers relative to the West.

 

[Vinnk]

Alas! poor Vita. I knew him, Horatio; a fellow of infinite jest, of most excellent fancy

3D, or not 3D, — that is the question: —
Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer
The slings and arrows of outrageous crosstalk

Something is rotten in the state of Chartzzz

etc etc

I've been Shakespeared!

As for Wii U... The general level of excitement for the system is rather low. People DO want to play the new Mario and my students talk about that a lot. But that game alone is not enough. Or not enough at the price the system is selling for. If Nintendo does have some games they are holding back, they better reveal them soon before all momentum is gone. If they don't have any titles they are holding back, the problem is much deeper.

 

[Datschge]

Well Baba dit mention the fanbase being on Vita and PS3

Baba and whoever else makes decisions at Bandai Namco Games were obviously caught in the fallacy that is expecting all of the PSP audience to automatically move to Vita. I guess we can call them brave for still running with it. Still not expecting any better sales for ToHR than what ToIR received (which itself is near the bottom of the Tales sales list, beaten by even the worst selling Tales port on PSP and beating only Tales of the World Summoner's Lineage).

 

[Road]

Wii U shipments prediction:

12Q4: 4 million
13Q1: 500k

Btw. did anything release in week 52 besides Fantasy Life?
I mean for any console, not just 3DS.

NEO GEO X.

Wonder if any tracker will comment on its sales. As for games, Inazuma Eleven 1-2-3 for 3DS and some Starry Sky for the PSP.

 

[Gianni Merryman]

Wii U shipments prediction:

12Q4: 4 million
13Q1: 500k

Wow, those numbers would be very good if true.

 

[farnham]

Yeah, I thought ToS remake was a distinct possibility for a while- but I think the Tales producer laughed off the idea of a Wii U game a while back which made me mentally cross that off the list (though maybe he was talking about the mainline series, I dunno).

I do expect some sort of Tales game eventually.

Isnt the tales team handling ssb4? Kinda funny how he is laughing at the platform he will be putting a game of his on

 

[Chris1964]

Wow, those numbers would be very good if true.

If these happen they indicate huge channel stuffing at launch. Far from very good.

 

[Mpl90]

If these happen they indicate huge channel stuffing at launch. Far from very good.

Exactly.

 

[chertipros]

I have a hard time seeing most of the other mid-tier franchises that went 'HD,' coming to the WiiU in the next year or so. There isn't the purchasing population that would bother considering how much it costs to create yet another HD version of their game (which I believe a lot of people grossly underestimate, especially for early-lifecycle games where devs are still getting their feet wet in the hadware).

I suppose Tales has a chance -- they're clearly struggling to make their games 'HD,' and they likely won't benefit any from having a more powerful PS4/720 to develop on. Falcom games would probably work as well, if the company heads didn't openly admit to hating Nintendo.

When was this?

 

[Gianni Merryman]

If these happen they indicate huge channel stuffing at launch. Far from very good.

Of course I meant if actual sales were high as well, since Nintendo for what I know usually don't overship its stuff.

Btw iirc Nintendo is aiming at similar shipment figures by the end of this fiscal year

 

[Chris1964]

Of course I meant if actual sales were high as well, since Nintendo for what I know usually don't overship its stuff.

Btw iirc Nintendo is aiming at similar shipment figures by the end of this fiscal year

Last time I checked 3DS was way overshipped at launch.

4.5M isn't 5.5M.

 

[bigtroyjon]

Of course I meant if actual sales were high as well, since Nintendo for what I know usually don't overship its stuff.

Btw iirc Nintendo is aiming at similar shipment figures by the end of this fiscal year

500K for a quarter would be beyond awful it they didn't over ship in the previous quarter.

 

[test_account]

I'm personally awaiting the inevitable announcement of DoA5 Wii U edition. DW7 seems like a lock. Wasn't Hokuto Musou 2 the #1 pre-order for the Wii U?

Yep. It is however basically the only WiiU game that is coming out in January. There was a picture posted earlier where Hokuto Musou 2 was the 1st to 5th most pre-ordered game (one game taking 5 spots).

Is it possible to pre-order other WiiU games like Pikmin 3 and Bayonetta 2 alread by the way?

 

[Chris1964]

If NoE is representative of Nintendo's way of thinking their biggest problem right now is that they refuse to admit there is a problem.

 

[grimshawish]

If NoE is representative of Nintendo's way of thinking their biggest problem right now is that they refuse to admit there is a problem.

Your basing this on...what?
They just had a big deal on the 3DS to push it this holiday. NoA did bugger all.

If your just talking WiiU...what exactly have they said to 'refuse' any issues.
Also what company do you know that starts openly expressing issues right after launch?