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Media Create Sales: Week 6, 2014 (Feb 03 - Feb 09)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
MGS 2: 987k (substance inc.)
MGS 3: 1115k (subsistence inc.)
MGS 4: 895k
MGS PW: 836k
MGS 4 didn't have a substance or subsistence counterpart iirc.
Gianni Merryman
Member
[WIU] Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze <ACT> (Nintendo) (¥5.985)
Lol at the kid with the Kranky Kong's beard!
Actually that would be nothing unprecedented, hardware selling better than software - especially at launch - is something that's happened before.
It makes sense - the Cube was cheap and powerful, no the attributes you would use to subscribe WiiU. Though the 3DS is attracting way more potential WiiU owners then the GBA did ever for Cube looking at the lineup and style of games available .
jeremy1456
Junior Member
Vita is also pretty easy to predict, as far as Japanese sales go.
1st Course
Member
I think we can estimate how PS4 will sell depending on how Ishin will sell.
If Ishin sold 80K FW and end up selling to 30% (really don't see it selling to less than thatt) of the system owners, this mean the system could sell about 260k FW.
If Ishin sold 80K FW and end up selling to 30% (really don't see it selling to less than thatt) of the system owners, this mean the system could sell about 260k FW.
test_account
XP-39C²
What is the prediction?
We will get the first week numbers at the same day though, both for Yakuza Ishin and PS4. Or there might be a small chance that we get the PS4 hardware numbers before the software numbers.
1st Course
Member
I know i'm trying to estimate a range for HW sales.
For example RR5 sold 230K on install base of 630k (sold to 36%)
RR7 sold 30k on install base of 88k (sold to 34%)
Going by the above i can see the PS4 doing 250-300k FW.
Herb Alpert
Banned
I can't avoid to think at all the incredibly funny jokes about snow storm the thread will be filled of when DK numbers will hit...
The heat wave ones lasted so long...
The heat wave ones lasted so long...
IncandescentPrecept
Banned
Anyone who thinks that the PS4 is going to do WiiU levels is going to be in for a shock.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Weekend is over in Japan.
Donkey Kong at Yodobashi: http://www.yodobashi.com/ec/product/stock/100000001002095566/index.html
what kinda sell through bomba :lol
On the other hand, that random train game seems to have sold really well. 3DS its power.
Donkey Kong at Yodobashi: http://www.yodobashi.com/ec/product/stock/100000001002095566/index.html
what kinda sell through bomba :lol
On the other hand, that random train game seems to have sold really well. 3DS its power.
1st Course
Member
I'm sure it will do better in long term, but FW will probably be lower.
Two kinds of people will be in for a shock next weeks.
Those who believe Tropical Freeze will show "it's a Nintendo title" legs.
Those who believe PS4 will show "it will keep selling just because" legs.
Saying stuff that isn't on Nintendo consoles are weaker than ever is kinda misleading considering the massive drop off of Nintendo mainline games on the WIi U. Everything is in freefall except a couple of franchises on the 3ds.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
The legs tho
Hero of Legend
Member
You reminded me to check up on Toshin Toshi:
http://www.yodobashi.com/ec/product/stock/100000001001936536/index.html
Looks like it's still either selling out or was hardly restocked? Any info you can provide?
If take the sum of LTD of all PS4 software its 655K. and multiple it by 0.6 (meaning 60% sales of the total sales are in the first week) and then divide it by 1.5 ( number of games bought with each system). it comes out to be 262.
So its
Total LTD sales = 655k
60% of that for first week sales = 393k
Divide by 1.5 (for first week attach rate) = 262k.
So Sony is probably expecting 250k first week PS4 sales
I dont have first week sales of the launch titles to the total sales. But for normal launch title sales in Japan i think its normally 60 - 70% on PS3.
Similarly i dont have average attach rate for the first week in Japan either.. But i think PS4 American launch week attach rate was around 1.5 or maybe i m wrong
Well, not over yet. It's 21:54. Bic Camera it's open until 22:00, Tsutaya until 23:00. So still a few hours for Donkey Kong selling like crazy lol
About Toushintoshi, was in stock today when i visited the shop.
Bruno MB
Member
Launch games with the exception of the biggest launch title (in this case Yakuza: Isshin!) generally have a very low sell-through rate. None of these titles will make 60% of their lifetime sales in the first week.
PS3 launch week:
Hardware - 88.443
Software - 87.047
Ridge Racer 7 - 30.318 <37%> --- LTD 149.648 (20,3% of its total sales in the first week)
Mobile Suit Gundam: Crossfire - 30.051 <32%> --- LTD 146.199 (20,6% of its total sales in the first week)
Resistance: Fall of Man - 15.741 <37,7%> --- LTD 136.492 (11,5% of its total sales in the first week)
Genji: Days of the Blade - 9.543 <19,6%> --- LTD 53.780 (17,7% of its total sales in the first week)
Miyazato San Kyoudai Naizou: Sega Golf Club - 1.394 <11,2%> --- LTD 13.978 (10% of its total sales in the first week)
Sammy Samusu
Member
It was restocked at every Yodobashi store, but we are probably talking about a couple hundred of copies.
Dengeki Week 6: 2,767 / 23,640
It's sold out on Amazon, new shipment on Feb 26. (lol) Imageepoch better collect some digital coins.
Hero of Legend
Member
I'm guessing this is good for them, they're selling, they just aren't shipping much for some reason. Is this on eShop?
If i reduce the sell-through, then it means first week sales are going to be pretty low or attach rate will be less then 1.
At attach rate 1.5
FW PS4 with Avg 40% FW sales of LT sales = 175k
FW PS4 with Avg 30% FW sales of LT sales = 130k
At attach rate 1.2
FW PS4 with Avg 40% FW sales of LT sales = 220k
FW PS4 with Avg 30% FW sales of LT sales = 165k
At attach rate 1.0
FW PS4 with Avg 40% FW sales of LT sales = 260k
FW PS4 with Avg 30% FW sales of LT sales =195k
At attach rate 0.8
FW PS4 with Avg 40% FW sales of LT sales = 327k
FW PS4 with Avg 30% FW sales of LT sales = 245k
metalslimer
Member
Anyone who thinks it will sell decently post launch with that crap lineup is in for a bigger shock.
1st Course
Member
Comg and Amazon tell us BF4 will be >>>COD.
Cod isn't even charting on Comg top 20 or Amazon top 100.
Cod isn't even charting on Comg top 20 or Amazon top 100.
Moral Panic
Member
I haven't a clue what PS4 will sell tbh. I didn't expect them to come out the gate so strong, ~7 million next gen consoles in 1.5 months wasn't a common prediction.
AdventureRacing
Member
It seems to be selling pretty well WW with a terrible software line-up. Not sure that will apply to Japan though.
1st Course
Member
WW PS4 lineup is not bad.
COD,BF,AC,FIFA are pretty much the biggest franchises in the west, each one of them sell 10m+ per mainline installment.
COD,BF,AC,FIFA are pretty much the biggest franchises in the west, each one of them sell 10m+ per mainline installment.
michaelius
Banned
And a lot of those franchises are 100-200k sellers in Japan.
Was it bundled with console ? Because that's a lot of copies sold for shooter in Japan.
Was it bundled with console ? Because that's a lot of copies sold for shooter in Japan.
BishopLamont
Banned
PS4 can fall back on third party multiplatforms in the west, not so much in Japan.
Yeah but its selling like nearly half the 3DS! Who could've predicted that??
metalslimer
Member
Yes that will sell the vast majority of that on PS3.
test_account
XP-39C²
Oh, like that, i understand. Hard to say how much the PS4 version of Ishin will sell, especially when a PS3 version also excist.
There it can fall back on the exclusives instead
BishopLamont
Banned
At best it'll be PS3 levels, people aren't gonna be buying it for months and months without software, Japan doesn't give a shit about graphics the way the west does and there's nothing like third party multiplatforms that sell consoles in the west, PS3 struggled until the revision and FFXIII came out, unless third parties step up to the plate, what is gonna sell it exactly?
Also "phenomenally" is a bit much, last gen lasted way longer than it did and with the Wii U flop, everyone was craving for next-gen.
Bruno MB
Member
It wasn't bundled in Japan.
It sold well because there weren't too many games to choose from, its sequels sold way worse.
michaelius
Banned
Like the ports which were supposed to do nothing on Vita due to everyone having psp or ps3 ?
Or more like people not buying ps4/xbone versions of games in west because they have previous gen machine ?
I'm expecting that x360 crowd and ps3 owners buying western games will be majority of early ps4 buyers and we will see shift almost as fast as we see in USA/UK
test_account
XP-39C²
It seems to be selling out almost everywhere though, it cant really do much better than that. Hard to say where the ceiling is when its supply constrained.
Parakeetman
No one wants a throne you've been sitting on!
No real reason why it should with how long the 3ds has been out along with folks that own multiple at this point... lol
If anything some of the numbers came from the one packed with the special white 3DS LL though.
I don't think the PS4 will sell a lot at launch. Unlike the strange phenomenon that happened in most of the rest of the world, I don't believe that the Japanese consumer will buy a console that doesn't have any must-have games yet. The launch lineup doesn't have any system sellers (that Yakuza game is also going to be on PS3), and it'll be a while before any pop up.
PS4 launch lineup in the West was consisted of multiplatform multimillion western sellers.
PS4 launch lineup in Japan is consisted of (at least 2 months late ports) multiplatform western sellers with only one 'big' multiplatform Japanese title that will have the majority of its sales on PS3.
There isn't any comparison and history has showed many times what the future of a console with anemic software will be. Until it starts having a steady flow of relevant releases we know how it'll sell once launch hype dies after first weeks.
1 week that wasn't really that great.
Hellraider
Member
Unless Deep Down becomes the next Minecraft, it will be pretty irrelevant.
We also saw for how long "launch enthusiasm" worked for PSV. Two weeks to be precise.
Intellectually I know you are correct- just a bit wary because IMO PS4 is outselling its software power in the West. I
Well the PS4 did have notably enhanced versions of four of the industry's top six third party series and a target audience that would care about that.
If the PS4's launch lineup in Japan was cross gen versions of RE7, FFXV, Yakuza 6, and MGS5: TPP I would be pretty optimistic.
True- I thought those titles also being available on PS360 as well as XB1 would lessen that impact. I think what happened is there was a definite market for a new system, and Sony has taken most of that market.
Microsoft had a chance only in US and UK. With the pricing of XB1 they put themselves out of the game in these 2 countries.
I disagree. COD, AssCreed, NFS, BF4, Sports, etc. are some of the biggest western titles available. I'd argue that its selling in line with the software behind it.
theprodigy
Member
I dunno about that, CoD/FIFA/Assassin's Creed/Battlefield/Madden (in America) is exactly what always tops the charts in the west anyway, and they were all there at the start or soon after
on the other hand, what's the best console sellers in Japan anyway? (...)
edit: isn't it like FFXIII, FFXIII-2, and MGS4 for top 3?