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[pieatorium]

the anecdotal evidence was pointing to well over the 150-200k people were predicting. report of 350k shipment and the 20 odd stores we had reports from (yodobashi + bloggers) about half were completely sold out with most of the others had one sku sold out. It's a small sample size sure but it shows a pattern of not being bomba.

Pictures of stock on shelves is the worst kind of anecdotal evidence to pay attention too, there were tons of pics of big stacks of xbones in december in the npd threads too and look how that turned out.

Big lines are only an indicator of big sales, small or no lines doesnt mean anything. theres games that sell 300k+ in a week all the time without huge lines. Just look at a couple of weeks ago and dqm.

 

[Soriku]

I think some of us were also overly influenced by recent anecdotal evidence (empty lines, etc) and negativity regarding the PS4's future in Japan. If memory serves, we already had evidence that the PS4 was hyped there, polls and such. We should have known that launch sales would be good. There's still going to be hype-fueled customers looking for a PS4 in a week as well.

I agree with Chris1964. What we should really be looking forward to is seeing where the PS4's sales will settle at.

Where the PS4 settles in the next couple weeks doesn't matter in the long run. So far it's Japanese library is weak and will remain weak for a while. If it can still keep up decent sales regardless, that's a good sign, but otherwise its sales should only really matter (to make a solid call about how successful it is) once some notable games release.

 

[L Thammy]

Where the PS4 settles in the next couple weeks doesn't matter in the long run. So far it's Japanese library is weak and will remain weak for a while. If it can still keep up decent sales regardless, that's a good sign, but otherwise its sales should only really matter (to make a solid call about how successful it is) once some notable games release.

"doesn't matter" might be too strong a phrase. Yes, support is coming, and that's when we'll see how the PlayStation 4 will ultimately be remembered in Japan. But how long will that take? How will it hold itself until that point? If it flounders until the middle of next year or if it does respectably until autumn, will the recovery be equally smooth either way?

We won't be able to call the system a success or failure in a few weeks, but we'll better understand the situation it's in.

 

[XDDX]

Predictions:

[PS4] Hardware (35 days) - 185,000
[3DS] Harvest Moon Tsunagaru Shintenchi (32 days) - 120,000
[PSV] Soul Sacrifice Delta (25 days) - 100,000
[PS3+360] Dark Souls II (18 days) - 300,000
[PS3+PSV] J Stars Victory Versus (12 days) - 170,000
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zeroes (11 days) - 125,000
[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zeroes (11 days) - 100,000
[PS3+PSV] Samurai Warriors 4 (11 days) - 180,000
[3DS] Mario Party Island Tour (11 days) - 200,000
[PS3+PSV] Hatsune Miku Project Diva F 2nd (4 days) - 190,000
[360] Titanfall (4 days) - 20,000

 

[Jamix012]

Where the PS4 settles in the next couple weeks doesn't matter in the long run. So far it's Japanese library is weak and will remain weak for a while. If it can still keep up decent sales regardless, that's a good sign, but otherwise its sales should only really matter (to make a solid call about how successful it is) once some notable games release.

I disagree strongly. Consoles CAN recover after a bad first 6 months or so, but even if they do a lot of the damage has been done and momentum is never really fully recovered. Just take a look at the consoles that made "recoveries" in recent history.

The PS3 got to a respectable number but even if/when it hits 10million, that's a huge contraction from it's previous generation and can hardly be called a success.
The Vita is in a similar position to the PS3 (but worse) in that it's recovery is very muted and it's sub 20,000 numbers weekly won't lead it to a great LTD.

The 3DS stands alone in being able to recover from it's initial situation. There are two reasons for this though. Firstly: The 3DS was never flopping NEARLY as badly as either the PS3 or Vita and secondly Nintendo acted extremely quickly in issuing a price cut and announcing software that spurred sales on it's announcement.

If the PS4 starts dragging it's feet in its first 6 weeks in a similar way to the Vita, we can't with certainly say that it'll be a failure, but I think it'll be pretty clear that the PS4 will not be the roaring 15M+ success that many fans want it to be in order to"revive" the JP console market.

 

[jeremy1456]

The 3DS stands alone in being able to recover from it's initial situation. There are two reasons for this though. Firstly: The 3DS was never flopping NEARLY as badly as either the PS3 or Vita and secondly Nintendo acted extremely quickly in issuing a price cut and announcing software that spurred sales on it's announcement.

The 3DS' performance was never called into question by rational people. It had a strong first year by all accounts, and people were exaggerating.

 

[cw_sasuke]

The 3DS' performance was never called into question by rational people. It had a strong first year by all accounts, and people were exaggerating.

Oh it was - the expectation for the 3DS were way higher than for pretty much every other system in the last 10 years. Of course the sales were good compared to other systems, but this was the follow up to the DS and many 3rd partys already pledged their support before hand so a domination from day 1 was expected.

No one was really satisfied with the performance, thats why Nintendo had to drop the hammer before its first holiday season.

 

[jeremy1456]

Oh it was - the expectation for the 3DS were way higher than for pretty much every other system in the last 10 years. Of course the sales were good compared to other systems, but this was the follow up to the DS and many 3rd partys already pledged their support before hand so a domination from day 1 was expected.

No one was really satisfied with the performance, thats why Nintendo had to drop the hammer before its first holiday season.

Like I said, rational people. It wasn't going to explode out of the gates obviously with that lineup. It always performed pretty well.

 

[Mario007]

Like I said, rational people. It wasn't going to explode out of the gates obviously with that lineup. It always performed pretty well.

If it was always performing well Nintendo wouldn't have to cut the price down by 33% 6 months after the launch and book a first ever loss on the fiscal year as a direct result of the move.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Like I said, rational people. It wasn't going to explode out of the gates obviously with that lineup. It always performed pretty well.

Pretty well wasnt enough - considering the pre-launch support they gathered, Iwata stated himself that 3rd Partys probably L5/Capcom were already doubting their decision to go all in on 3DS. With PSP still selling okay at that point and Vita about to hit for the same price as the 3DS - things could`ve taken a worse turn for the 3DS and Nintendo.

Imagine a just "okay" doing 3DS and the screw-up that the WiiU is right now - i dont think Iwata would be the CEO right now.

 

[jeremy1456]

If it was always performing well Nintendo wouldn't have to cut the price down by 33% 6 months after the launch and book a first ever loss on the fiscal year as a direct result of the move.

Nintendo had unrealistic expectations for it. I get where you're coming from, but even before the announcement of MH3G and MH4 I knew it would bounce back with even just Mario Kart.

 

[NateDrake]

Like I said, rational people. It wasn't going to explode out of the gates obviously with that lineup. It always performed pretty well.

Post-launch the 3DS was averaging about 20k weekly sales. Not terrible, but not great. So-so, at best.

 

[jeremy1456]

Post-launch the 3DS was averaging about 20k weekly sales. Not terrible, but not great. So-so, at best.

But it had so few highly marketable games. I still think if Nintendo had simply waited for Mario Kart 7 to launch they wouldn't have had to lower the price.

 

[Soriku]

I disagree strongly. Consoles CAN recover after a bad first 6 months or so, but even if they do a lot of the damage has been done and momentum is never really fully recovered. Just take a look at the consoles that made "recoveries" in recent history.

The PS3 got to a respectable number but even if/when it hits 10million, that's a huge contraction from it's previous generation and can hardly be called a success.
The Vita is in a similar position to the PS3 (but worse) in that it's recovery is very muted and it's sub 20,000 numbers weekly won't lead it to a great LTD.

The 3DS stands alone in being able to recover from it's initial situation. There are two reasons for this though. Firstly: The 3DS was never flopping NEARLY as badly as either the PS3 or Vita and secondly Nintendo acted extremely quickly in issuing a price cut and announcing software that spurred sales on it's announcement.

If the PS4 starts dragging it's feet in its first 6 weeks in a similar way to the Vita, we can't with certainly say that it'll be a failure, but I think it'll be pretty clear that the PS4 will not be the roaring 15M+ success that many fans want it to be in order to"revive" the JP console market.

The PS3 is a far cry from the PS2, but its turn around was pretty big, and I think the PS4 is starting on a better note (better price is a huge factor). However, the market's changed since 2006 and is more portable-oriented now. That said, I don't expect the PS4 to flounder once the big hitters and the more notable niche games start releasing. As it builds a library, it'll do fine, relatively speaking.

I agree though it's not going to reach PS2 levels of sales though or "save"/"revive" the console market in Japan. Once again, the market's changed. Though personally, I think in terms of games coming out on consoles from Japan, the console market in Japan's fine, though the PS4 will take a while to pick up the pace. Hardware sales is a different form of issue.

Also, I somewhat remember the PSP not doing too hotly for a while in Japan until a certain Monster Hunter game released and it changed the whole landscape.

 

[cw_sasuke]

Post-launch the 3DS was averaging about 20k weekly sales. Not terrible, but not great. So-so, at best.

20K weekly was horrible for the DS successor - thats what the "dead" Vita is selling right now.

But it had so few highly marketable games. I still think if Nintendo had simply waited for Mario Kart 7 to launch they wouldn't have had to lower the price.

So has the WiiU - doesnt make it performance less abysmal xD

 

[jeremy1456]

20K weekly was horrible for the DS successor - thats what the "dead" Vita is selling right now.

With a significantly better lineup than the 3DS had most of its first year.

So has the WiiU - doesnt make it performance less abysmal xD

Yeah the Wii U is the first time I've been completely wrong about the Japanese market. I'm kind of befuddled.

 

[NateDrake]

20K weekly was horrible for the DS successor - thats what the "dead" Vita is selling right now.

Which is why Nintendo dropped the price so quickly.

But *some* people are saying the Vita has been reborn with such sales. 20k isn't a great baseline, but compared to 6-9k it is a major victory.

 

[pieatorium]

Yeah the Wii U is the first time I've been completely wrong about the Japanese market. I'm kind of befuddled.

must have really thrown you off your game with how many times you've been wrong since

 

[jeremy1456]

must have really thrown you off your game with how many times you've been wrong since

PS4 launch and Wii U YTD eventually beating the Vita YTD.

Only one has been disproven so far.

 

[pieatorium]

PS4 launch and Wii U YTD eventually beating the Vita YTD.

Only one has been disproven so far.

rayman legends opening 50k first week?

 

[metalslimer]

Yeah the Wii U is the first time I've been completely wrong about the Japanese market. I'm kind of befuddled.

It's strange to be confused over something so easily explained.

 

[Jamix012]

Also, I somewhat remember the PSP not doing too hotly for a while in Japan until a certain Monster Hunter game released and it changed the whole landscape.

The PSP went from just being a successful second place to being a monster in it's own right. It was never in trouble in Japan. It just went from strength to strength. In regards to the PS3, it's not really what I would call a success. It's ok and certainly better than the gamecube or other second place finishers, but it's still a second place finish.

 

[BishopLamont]

But it had so few highly marketable games. I still think if Nintendo had simply waited for Mario Kart 7 to launch they wouldn't have had to lower the price.

They woulda been fine had they waited, but the pressure from investors was a bit much and they had too much on the line, failure wasn't an option since its their bread and butter, coupled with the rise of smartphone, they had to do it.

Seems like Japanise publishers are set on course to repeat exactly the same mistakes they did with PSP->PSV transition.

You're assuming third parties care how fast the PS4 sells in Japan, they're perfectly fine with playing the waiting game.

 

[jeremy1456]

rayman legends opening 50k first week?

I don't remember it, but I assume you looked through my post history, and that was pretty crazy of me.

 

[pieatorium]

I don't remember it, but I assume you looked through my post history, and that was pretty crazy of me.

no thats just the one i remember, it was in response to me not expecting it to make the top 50.


iirc we were both wrong and it charted somewhere in the 40s


edit ~i think it was you also who said that you believed the vita sales peaked in holiday 2012

 

[jeremy1456]

no thats just the one i remember, it was in response to me not expecting it to make the top 50.


iirc we were both wrong and it charted somewhere in the 40s


edit ~i think it was you also who said that you believed the vita sales peaked in holiday 2012

Well I mean, I still don't think the Vita will match itself for YTD by the end of 2014.

 

[duckroll]

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201402/26048892.html

Top5 PS4 launch software numbers from Famitsu.

1. Knack - 322,083 (includes PS4 First Limited Pack bundles)
2. Ryu ga Gotoku Ishin - 73,086
3. Battlefield 4 - 26,878
4. Killzone Shadowfall - 25,978
5. Dynasty Warriors 8 Xtreme Legends - 13,576

Pretty awful attach rates.

 

[1st Course]

Like I and others said before, most people bought the system based on it's future potential rather than current lineup.

 

[Mario007]

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201402/26048892.html

Top5 PS4 launch software numbers from Famitsu.

1. Knack - 322,083 (includes PS4 First Limited Pack bundles)
2. Ryu ga Gotoku Ishin - 73,086
3. Battlefield 4 - 26,878
4. Killzone Shadowfall - 25,978
5. Dynasty Warriors 8 Xtreme Legends - 13,576

Pretty awful attach rates.

That's because everyone's playing Knack. Why on earth would you play anything else?

 

[Jamix012]

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201402/26048892.html

Top5 PS4 launch software numbers from Famitsu.

1. Knack - 322,083 (includes PS4 First Limited Pack bundles)
2. Ryu ga Gotoku Ishin - 73,086
3. Battlefield 4 - 26,878
4. Killzone Shadowfall - 25,978
5. Dynasty Warriors 8 Xtreme Legends - 13,576

Pretty awful attach rates.

Yikes. Less than a 1.0 attach rate if you don't include Knack? Gee. Do we have some launch attach rate for other consoles that had a bundled game?

 

[pieatorium]

Yikes. Less than a 1.0 attach rate if you don't include Knack? Gee. Do we have some launch attach rate for other consoles that had a bundled game?

not sure how far back you have to go to find a bundled launch, wii sports wasn't bundled in japan dont think anything else in recent or even not recent memory was

 

[Tripon]

not sure how far back you have to go to find a bundled launch, wii sports wasn't bundled in japan dont think anything else in recent or even not recent memory was

Wii Sports still sold a ton. The PS4 software rates are telling us that the PS4 is going to struggle hard. There isn't even BC for the PS4 to fall back on.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

With a significantly better lineup than the 3DS had most of its first year.




Yeah the Wii U is the first time I've been completely wrong about the Japanese market. I'm kind of befuddled.

Do you honestly not know why the WiiU is dead in Japan? Its very obvious.

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201402/26048892.html

Top5 PS4 launch software numbers from Famitsu.

1. Knack - 322,083 (includes PS4 First Limited Pack bundles)
2. Ryu ga Gotoku Ishin - 73,086
3. Battlefield 4 - 26,878
4. Killzone Shadowfall - 25,978
5. Dynasty Warriors 8 Xtreme Legends - 13,576

Pretty awful attach rates.

These attach rates are far worse than I had thought. Attach rate is like 0.48.

 

[Jamix012]

I'm a little surprised with the attach rate tbh. I don't have numbers on hand right now, but I'm assuming this is less than the PS3 and PS2 attach rates and they both doubled as a cheap Blu Ray/DVD player as well as a game console.

 

[Foshy]

Yikes. Less than a 1.0 attach rate if you don't include Knack? Gee. Do we have some launch attach rate for other consoles that had a bundled game?

Why would you ignore Knack though? Serious question.

Bundled sales deserve to be counted in my opinion, just like the Wii U holiday bundle with NSMBU and Wii Party. Don't recall anyone whining about that.

I'm 100% positive that other software sales would've been higher if Knack were not bundled. As there's no real killer app yet, many people will first check out the free stuff that's available (also FFXIV beta).

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

I'm a little surprised with the attach rate tbh. I don't have numbers on hand right now, but I'm assuming this is less than the PS3 and PS2 attach rates and they both doubled as a cheap Blu Ray/DVD player as well as a game console.

PS3's attach rate was actually higher than the PS2's mainly because it opened at such a low number.

PS3 = 0.965
PS2 = 0.87

Very impressive for the PS2 considering its massive launch number.

Why would you ignore Knack though? Serious question.

Bundled sales deserve to be counted in my opinion, just like the Wii U holiday bundle with NSMBU and Wii Party. Don't recall anyone whining about that.

I'm 100% positive that other software sales would've been higher if Knack were not bundled. As there's no real killer app yet, many people will first check out the free stuff that's available (also FFXIV beta).

Of course. Also bundled sales are included but we must say that its been bundled. Ignoring that fact will give false ideas.

 

[jeremy1456]

Do you honestly not know why the WiiU is dead in Japan? Its very obvious.

Praytell why is it dead? I assumed because Nintendo's evergreen titles are no longer as strong as they once were, and because third party support is so bad.

But please, by all means, tell me.

 

[Jamix012]

Why would you ignore Knack though? Serious question.

Bundled sales deserve to be counted in my opinion, just like the Wii U holiday bundle with NSMBU and Wii Party. Don't recall anyone whining about that.

It's hard to ignore completely and yet it's better than counting it outright. How many people do you think would've bought Knack if it hadn't bundled. Hint: Wonderful 101 vs Knack would've probably been a legit comparison.

PS3's attach rate was actually higher than the PS2's mainly because it opened at such a low number.

PS3 = 0.965
PS2 = 0.87

Very impressive for the PS2 considering its massive launch number.

?? I guess I'm just not familiar with Japanese attach rates at launch, because these both being lower than 1 still seems low-ish to me. Wii U was over a 1.0 attach rate but I suppose Mario and Monster hunter helped with that.

 

[Jigorath]

http://www.famitsu.com/news/201402/26048892.html

Top5 PS4 launch software numbers from Famitsu.

1. Knack - 322,083 (includes PS4 First Limited Pack bundles)
2. Ryu ga Gotoku Ishin - 73,086
3. Battlefield 4 - 26,878
4. Killzone Shadowfall - 25,978
5. Dynasty Warriors 8 Xtreme Legends - 13,576

Pretty awful attach rates.

100% attach rate for Knack. What a beast.

 

[Jigorath]

It's hard to ignore completely and yet it's better than counting it outright. How many people do you think would've bought Knack if it hadn't bundled. Hint: Wonderful 101 vs Knack would've probably been a legit comparison.

Hey don't lump those two together. Wonderful 101 was actually a good game.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Praytell why is it dead? I assumed because Nintendo's evergreen titles are no longer as strong as they once were, and because third party support is so bad.

But please, by all means, tell me.

Lack of third party support = barren release schedule and poor library = poor sales

 

[Jamix012]

Lack of third party support = barren release schedule and poor library = poor sales

Honestly I think it's more that the Wii U has so many things wrong with it's core concept to begin with. People don't want a tablet controller, the wii brand has become somewhat toxic. Alienating 3rd parties I honestly think is a result of it's failures as a concept to begin with.
Had the Wii U launched as the "Nintendo Evolution" with a pro controller instead of a tablet at $225 and a marketing campaign not aimed solely at kids, I'd have bet on N64ish numbers worldwide and 5millionish in Japan.

But this has been discussed to death and is fairly irrelevent at this point. The Wii U is dead and will at best hit 17ish million if MK and Smash really take off and a successor isn't rushed out.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Honestly I think it's more that the Wii U has so many things wrong with it's core concept to begin with. People don't want a tablet controller, the wii brand has become somewhat toxic. Alienating 3rd parties I honestly think is a result of it's failures as a concept to begin with.
Had the Wii U launched as the "Nintendo Evolution" with a pro controller instead of a tablet at $225 and a marketing campaign not aimed solely at kids, I'd have bet on N64ish numbers worldwide and 5millionish in Japan.

But this has been discussed to death and is fairly irrelevent at this point. The Wii U is dead and will at best hit 17ish million if MK and Smash really take off and a successor isn't rushed out.

WiiU would be lucky to hit 15 million. It will probably peak this year as well since its biggest titles are coming out this year.

 

[Deleted member 125677]

3DS is three years old today in japan! Happy birthday, bad boy

 

[theprodigy]

WiiU would be lucky to hit 15 million. It will probably peak this year as well since its biggest titles are coming out this year.

yeah, that's why he said at best and if MK/Smash really take off and if a successor isn't out quickly
basically the absolute best possible scenario for Wii U sales (which isn't exactly the best case for Nintendo)

 

[RalchAC]

Wii Sports still sold a ton. The PS4 software rates are telling us that the PS4 is going to struggle hard. There isn't even BC for the PS4 to fall back on.

Well, Knack was free and FFXIV has a free upgrade. It'd be cool if Square released a data saying how many subscriptor have upgraded their PS3 version.

But yes, the attach rate is horrible. Still it's easy to understand. DW was released months ago on the PS3/Vita and outside Yakuza (whose sales look decent for a cross-gen game with looks like a 1:1 conversion) the rest are Western games.

Edit: Fixed a mistake (put Japanese and not Western there)

 

[Tripon]

Well, Knack was free and FFXIV has a free upgrade. It'd be cool if Square released a data saying how many subscriptor have upgraded their PS3 version.

But yes, the attach rate is horrible. Still it's easy to understand. DW was released months ago on the PS3/Vita and outside Yakuza (whose sales look decent for a cross-gen game with looks like a 1:1 conversion) the rest are Japanese games.

Right. The real issue is that there not enough games in the pipeline.

 

[TheChaos0]

I think some of us were also overly influenced by recent anecdotal evidence (empty lines, etc) and negativity regarding the PS4's future in Japan. If memory serves, we already had evidence that the PS4 was hyped there, polls and such. We should have known that launch sales would be good. There's still going to be hype-fueled customers looking for a PS4 in a week as well.

I agree with Chris1964. What we should really be looking forward to is seeing where the PS4's sales will settle at.

Where the PS4 settles in the next couple weeks doesn't matter in the long run. So far it's Japanese library is weak and will remain weak for a while. If it can still keep up decent sales regardless, that's a good sign, but otherwise its sales should only really matter (to make a solid call about how successful it is) once some notable games release.

That's an important bit here, if the sales can stabilise at some sort of reasonable number, it means that there an interest in PS4 even without notable games. The future looks brighter in that case and may prod some publishers to maybe announce something. But if we fall down to WiiU/Vita levels here, that won't inspire any confidence. Even with FFXV and Kingdom Hearts 3 (god know when these two are coming out), without a prior momentum, I feel like it won't have a lasting effect.

 

[strangedopamine]

In just before the deadline.

Predictions:

[PS4] Hardware (35 days) - 154,703
[3DS] Harvest Moon Tsunagaru Shintenchi (32 days) - 128,420
[PSV] Soul Sacrifice Delta (25 days) - 101,101
[PS3+360] Dark Souls II (18 days) - 322,500
[PS3+PSV] J Stars Victory Versus (12 days) - 185,450
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zeroes (11 days) - 140,085
[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zeroes (11 days) - 104,085
[PS3+PSV] Samurai Warriors 4 (11 days) - 154,500
[3DS] Mario Party Island Tour (11 days) - 201,889
[PS3+PSV] Hatsune Miku Project Diva F 2nd (4 days) - 207,500
[360] Titanfall (4 days) - 13,360

 

[Yoshi]

Why would you ignore Knack though? Serious question.

Bundled sales deserve to be counted in my opinion, just like the Wii U holiday bundle with NSMBU and Wii Party. Don't recall anyone whining about that.

I'm 100% positive that other software sales would've been higher if Knack were not bundled. As there's no real killer app yet, many people will first check out the free stuff that's available (also FFXIV beta).

They should count, but it's alightly different situation compared with Wii U, because you could buy a Wii U without Mario (and get it for cheaper), you couldn't get a PS4 without Knack. For comparison: Had I been able to get a Wii at launch without Wii Sports for 10€ less, I'd have gotten that Wii. I couldn't though, so I was forced to buy Wii Sports with the Wii. So ideally (if I could find this out) me buying Wii Sports shouldn't be counted, while me buying Yoshi's Island when I bought an SNES bundle with Yoshi's Island should be counted (I could have gotten the console without the game cheaper, so I bought this bundle because I was interested in the game).