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[Sqrt_minus_one]

That's Celestica, mentioned in the article. I think they're going from 2 to 3 factories, if memory serves me.

Are we then to take it that the shortages are due more to logistics and assembly than chip yeilds ?

 

[gofreak]

MS seems to have the same shipments as PS2 so far (a bit better in fact).

How many has MS shipped? Analysts say 1.3m in a bit over a month. Sony shipped over 1.4m PS2s in less than a month in Japan.

Sony did 10 million in one year, with 40% of them in the last 3 months.

Asides from the fact that they appear not to be keeping pace with Sony's initial PS2 shipments, I'd hesitate to draw comparison with Sony's situation given that they were selling like hotcakes in 3 territories (and the releases were staggered). It's hard to compare given how different the situations are.

 

[monkeymagic]

the disappointing thing is that technically it is a very able competitor.

I would think technical ability would be the least of their problems now.

Both the XBox and GCN were technically more capable competitors but it was so many other factors that let them down.

Now MS don't have the technical advantage but they're still making the same rudimentary mistakes they made last gen.

This is made even worse by the fact that they're the first to market so every mistake of theirs is scrutinised and multiplied many fold.

 

[Stinkles]

I take inexplicable pleasure in the missteps of corporations.

 

[JackFrost2012]

I take inexplicable pleasure in the missteps of corporations.

hey, if you can derive schadenfreude on a personal scale, this shit's like N20

 

[psycho_snake]

I would think technical ability would be the least of their problems now.

Both the XBox and GCN were technically more capable competitors but it was so many other factors that let them down.

Now MS don't have the technical advantage but they're still making the same rudimentary mistakes they made last gen.

This is made even worse by the fact that they're the first to market so every mistake of theirs is scrutinised and multiplied many fold.

not to forget that they are competing with Sony, who have such a massive brand name and have a very tight grip on the market.

 

[JackFrost2012]

not to forget that they are competing with Sony, who have such a massive brand name and have a very tight grip on the market.

that's not the market, THAT'S AN AXE

I SHOULD HAVE BOUGHT MORE UM*thwack*

 

[monkeymagic]

Microsoft is just spoiling their first mover advantage.

The problem is MS based most of their strategy on being first mover:

- They didn't go with HD-DVD so that they could be first mover
- They didn't include a HDD to cut costs so they could be first mover
- They didn't launch with Halo 3 so they could be first mover
- They didn't launch with enough units so they could be first mover

So consumers have been affected adversely as well as their ability to sustain an attack on Sony's marketshare over the next 4-5 years.

 

[Dave Long]

I've enjoyed the 360 I lucked into back before Christmas, but clearly they were not ready to ship this thing. There are bugs galore in the games and the operating system. Every game has an unfinished feel to it with missing features and strange design decisions that seem like they would have been caught with ample testing.

To top it off, Microsoft killed the first Xbox off at the same time.

They should have looked at the software, the hardware and the fact that production yields were poor and just bitten the bullet and called it off. The problem is they didn't bother to keep any development on the original Xbox for the Christmas season so they had nothing to fall back on and had to launch 360 no matter what. They were so committed to the new box that they couldn't see the problems right in front of their faces. Either that, or they simply chose to ignore them.

This whole thing has gone from "First mover advantage" to "Big black eye" over the course of the last two months. Then they add to the confusion with HD-DVD announcement. Ay yi yi...

 

[psycho_snake]

I've enjoyed the 360 I lucked into back before Christmas, but clearly they were not ready to ship this thing. There are bugs galore in the games and the operating system. Every game has an unfinished feel to it with missing features and strange design decisions that seem like they would have been caught with ample testing.

To top it off, Microsoft killed the first Xbox off at the same time.

They should have looked at the software, the hardware and the fact that production yields were poor and just bitten the bullet and called it off. The problem is they didn't bother to keep any development on the original Xbox for the Christmas season so they had nothing to fall back on and had to launch 360 no matter what. They were so committed to the new box that they couldn't see the problems right in front of their faces. Either that, or they simply chose to ignore them.

This whole thing has gone from "First mover advantage" to "Big black eye" over the course of the last two months. Then they add to the confusion with HD-DVD announcement. Ay yi yi...

Thier whole strategy is flawed. Killing off the Xbox was a huge mistake especially beofre they knew how well the Xbox360 would perform. If they kept supporting the Xbox they could have had two consoles out on the market which would be gaining more marketshare and MS could always rely on Xbox if the 360 was not doing as well as expected which is what is happening now.

Im sure that the games could have been polished a little more, but they probably just wanted to get the Xbox360 released as soon as possible so they could get their head start on ony. Its backfired on them now because they are not seeling as well as they want to and are basically throwing away very valuable time in which they could have sold plenty of Xbox360's, have a good lead this generation and keep picking up momentum which could have seen them be a real thorn in Sony's side. Unless they radically improve on the situation in a limited time that head start will count for nothing.

 

[Musashi Wins!]

They can fail like beta for all I care. Just let me be able to buy one when Oblivion launches.

Despite supply problems for 360, it's gonna be Genesis vs. SNES all over again, imo, with MS putting up a heckuva fight. The DS is putting up a superb fight against the PSP and I think the 360 will stand up to the PS3 nicely.

isn't the PSP struggling against the DS?

 

[open_mouth_]

Despite supply problems for 360, it's gonna be Genesis vs. SNES all over again, imo, with MS putting up a heckuva fight. The DS is putting up a superb fight against the PSP and I think the 360 will stand up to the PS3 nicely.

 

[psycho_snake]

Despite supply problems for 360, it's gonna be Genesis vs. SNES all over again, imo, with MS putting up a heckuva fight. The DS is putting up a superb fight against the PSP and I think the 360 will stand up to the PS3 nicely.

That certainly could have been the case, but the supply problems and the mess that they seem to be in menas that its going to be nore like PS2 vs Xbox rather than Genesis vs Snes. If they had supplied enough Xbox360's then they could have had a great lead before Sony released PS3, but at the moment they just seem to be wasting valuable time.

 

[Vince]

It's hard to compare given how different the situations are.

Agreed. Japan, which was one of PlayStation3's largest markets in it's first year, is basically a non-entity for Microsoft. Overcoming that will require them to outpreform Sony's preformance in Europe and the United States significantly; of which Europe is unlikely. And I seriously question if the US will or can absorb such a demand, with the Revolution and PlayStation3 on the [near] horizon.

i like how Sony's supposed to produce PS3 as fast as Sonic runs.

What you don't understand concerning Sony's manufacturing capability is that PlayStation2's shortages were due to a problem with both brinbging online their Nagasaki fab and migrating to produce 180nm Graphic Synthesizers. They were manufacturer constained by the Kokubu facilities theoretical output of 400,000 a month.

Sony, today, will output fron Nagasaki (Cell on SOI and RSX on Bulk CMOS), IBM's E.Fishkill (Cell on SOI), and OTSS with Toshiba (RSX on Bulk CMOS, Cell on SOI later @ 65nm). Also, all of which are on 300mm wafers, as opposed to the 8in. ones from Nagasaki in 2000. The bound on production will be BD-ROM (I'd speculate somewhat unlikely on it's own) before it's ICs.

Basically, Sony's going to come out of the gate so fast compared to 2000 that Sonic will be left in a cloud of dust.

 

[DSN2K]

isn't the PSP struggling against the DS?

Nintendo fans like to see it that way but reality is both are doing very well specially the DS.

 

[monkeymagic]

The DS is putting up a superb fight against the PSP and I think the 360 will stand up to the PS3 nicely.

I don't think the NDS vs PSP comparisons are relevant.

Nintendo is the handheld brand leader and has been for the last 15 years - MS is nowhere close to being the console leader and never has been.

NDS offers unique content and games over PSP - X360 and PS3 games will be for the most very similar in content and style.

Nintendo has maybe 5-10 system selling franchises. MS has 1.

And lastly NDS is half the cost of PSP. Unless PS3 is $800, X360 will not be half the cost of PS3.

For those reasons I don't see the fight being anything like NDS vs PSP. I also don't see the fight being anything like Super Famicom vs Megadrive since the console market is nothing like it was 15 years ago.

 

[borghe]

Nintendo fans like to see it that way but reality is both are doing very well specially the DS.

this is not entirely accurate.

The PSP is doing merely ok in Japan (given past hot console performance) while the DS is currently the hottest selling console EVER in japan (given historical numbers)

Both systems are definitely doing quite well in Europe with the DS having a very slight lead.

Both systems are doing quite poorly in America, with the DS having a slightly bigger lead than europe.

So take away Europe and the PSP is most definitely struggling while the DS is doing only ok, worldwide. Add in Europe and the PSP is doing simply ok and the DS is doing pretty well. Neither are doing very well worldwide thanks to both systems' poor performance in the US and the PSP's mediocre performance (for a new system) in japan.

edit - but back on Genesis vs. SNES, pretty much impossible. Japanese support (or lack thereof) will guarantee that MS won't have the same breadth of software that Sony will. The 360 won't bomba... but to put it another way, my brother just asked for a mech game besides the mechassault series for the xbox (he doesn't have ps2). you could hear crickets.

 

[open_mouth_]

That certainly could have been the case, but the supply problems and the mess that they seem to be in menas that its going to be nore like PS2 vs Xbox rather than Genesis vs Snes. If they had supplied enough Xbox360's then they could have had a great lead before Sony released PS3, but at the moment they just seem to be wasting valuable time.

During Xbox vs. PS2, Sony had a huge lead even before the Xbox came on the market. Sure, that lead kept ballooning even after the Xbox release, but Microsoft carved a name for itself in the market. This time around, Sony will have be behind at least 5-7 million units and Microsoft has lots of other advantages with the 360 that they never had before.

 

[Deg]

So take away Europe

Dont even try that. Possibly the dumbest thing you can say.

 

[<nu>faust]

instead of selling 2.5-3 million units 3 months, ms sold they sold 1.3 in 2 months (i'm projecting they hit 2 mil by 90 days)
instead of talking about 6-8 millions by june now they say they will reach 4.5 - 5.5 mil.....
why is that so bad?Why hitting %75 of their target number is soo dissapointing?
Would anybody prefer ms stocking millions of 360 on a warehouse till they have 6-8 mil and then release it around june?

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

So much for the years head start if they cant supply the stores! MS better hope to have several killer E3 announcements if they want to keep the balling rolling towards a good christmas 2006.

 

[borghe]

Dont even try that. Possibly the dumbest thing you can say.

I said take away europe because overall the systems aren't doing that great in TWO THIRDS of the other territories. Yes they are both doing well in europe, but doing well in the one territory likely won't spur any major development. I would almost argue that their poorer performance in the US is more important than the great performance in europe. The worldwide total is a misleading figure.

 

[Deku Tree]

I predict some executive turn over at the MS xbox division in 2006.

 

[borghe]

I predict some executive turn over at the MS xbox division in 2006.

bill gates fired??

hehe.. jk.

I agree.

 

[DarienA]

it's a marathon, not a sprint
would you believe a winter triathalon
how about a cross-country bike tour

What's that one where they ski and then shoot.... yeah it's that...

BTW BestBuy.com is still sold out of 360's...

 

[monkeyrun]

shouldn't they iron out al those problems before launch or lunch ?

 

[RidgeCityFM]

ps3 wont be here until fall or later. that is all. call it a mistake all you want but if sony somehow managed to pull off a worldwide launch by spring THEN MS would be in trouble. Until ps3s launch date is figured out MS has nothing to worry about. They are the only next gen kid on the block and by the time the bigger games like gears of war and saints row are around the hardware will be out at a more steady pace.

As far as the rushed hardware thing, the system is the most advanced unit on the block right now with parts rivaling hardcore gaming PCs. I dont even think someone like HP could even dream about churning out 10 million of there top of the line PCs in a less than a year. I see it as MS being ahead of the curve rather than rushing.

 

[Kai Dracon]

I was wondering when a major dose of reality was going to sink into MS and they'd have to pony up a heapin' healping of Truth! /Colbert

Seriously though, I gotta agree that this cinches it the entire launch was bloody rushed and slapped together. All things told, it was slapped together with great skill, I have to admit. Reality just sabotaged MS in two many key areas. It's possible they could have launched in March (with the PS3 "surprise" delay) and done just as well - with fine-tuned software, bug-free firmware, and plenty of supply.

The thing is, I feel the 360 launch is the best I've experienced in the end, overall. The system is incredible, the launch software is the best lineup since the Dreamcast launch, if not better overall. And that's WITH bugs. Glitches. Oversights. If this bitch would have been fully polished up... woah.

 

[SolidSnakex]

ps3 wont be here until fall or later. that is all. call it a mistake all you want but if sony somehow managed to pull off a worldwide launch by spring THEN MS would be in trouble.

Look at this thread for a reason why you won't see a worldwide PS3 launch. There's no reason for them to have these types of shipment troubles. There are already going to be shipment problems, just like with the PS3, but you're asking for even worse problems by doing a worldwide release.

 

[Lil' Dice]

Don't worrry fellas, i'm sure some of the 10,000 people that Sony will be laying off are gonna be EXCITED to read this:lol

 

[GhaleonEB]

I predict some executive turn over at the MS xbox division in 2006.

That already happened at the end of 2005. Bach, Moore and Allard all got promotions.

I suspect this period of time will be wrapped up in summary form five years from now thusly: "...but Microsoft was unable to deliver enough units to build a substantial lead over Sony, and the PS3 quickly caught up."

 

[monkeymagic]

ps3 wont be here until fall or later. that is all. call it a mistake all you want but if sony somehow managed to pull off a worldwide launch by spring THEN MS would be in trouble. Until ps3s launch date is figured out MS has nothing to worry about. They are the only next gen kid on the block and by the time the bigger games like gears of war and saints row are around the hardware will be out at a more steady pace.

As far as the rushed hardware thing, the system is the most advanced unit on the block right now with parts rivaling hardcore gaming PCs. I dont even think someone like HP could even dream about churning out 10 million of there top of the line PCs in a less than a year. I see it as MS being ahead of the curve rather than rushing.

The thing is you would be saying exactly the same thing had MS only shipped and sold 100,000 units.

The fact remains the early launch was to take advantage of the holiday season and build up a sizeable userbase (8-10M) before PS3 launches.

That is not going to happen if you can't get units on the shelf. And if you can't get units on the shelf then mass consumers lose interest since launch hype is very quickly forgotten.

 

[RidgeCityFM]

snake, then that means what? the 360 still has more than enough going for all the doom and gloom in this thread to be pointless. MS will have almost a full year in the US and possibly europe to clean up once they get their act together. If the software is there then it wont be a problem. Look at the demand for the system. if there was no demand then there'd be an issue but you still have people looking to line up at best buy just on rumors on the net of possible shipments coming in. you never saw anything like that with the ps2 or any other system for that matter. the demand is nuts.

The thing is you would be saying exactly the same thing had MS only shipped and sold 100,000 units.

The fact remains the early launch was to take advantage of the holiday season and build up a sizeable userbase (8-10M) before PS3 launches.

That is not going to happen if you can't get units on the shelf. And if you can't get units on the shelf then mass consumers lose interest since launch hype is very quickly forgotten.

:lol the same thing if they sold 100,000 units? thats a saturn style bomb. gimme a break. again until the demand falls off MS has nothing to worry about. all they have to do now is keep gamers interested. XBL does a great service of keeping the people that DO have one spreading positive influence among their friends who may not have one. look at the fight night 3 demo. the street fighter 2 announcement. thats only the beginning.

 

[D3VI0US]

Obviously they were gonna sell the bulk of their units during the holidays, I really wonder if they can keep demand up until next holiday still units will be plentiful then. Technical and supply issues can be ironed out, but devs have the hardware now and hopefully the 2nd gen games really shine. This may work out in MS favor anyways, a lot of that depends on Sony but rest assured they're breathing much easier with this announcement, still there might be a silver lining.

 

[DenogginizerOS]

IF there are 5-6 million units moved by June, I would be pleasantly surprised. Having said that, I think it is safe to say many who currently own the system will enjoy many great games in the coming months and many of you who doubt the X360 competitive forces may be seduced by one or more of these games. Besides, PS3 will have its problems too.

I do think Peter Moore needs to go. He just rubs me the wrong way and his baggage from past trips down Stupid Lane is really starting to add up.

 

[SolidSnakex]

you never saw anything like that with the ps2 or any other system for that matter. the demand is nuts.

:lol Did you just get into gaming?

 

[RidgeCityFM]

:lol Did you just get into gaming?

japan doesnt equal america.

 

[sonycowboy]

I really can't believe it.

I really thought Microsoft had their shit together, but they've really, really fucked it up.

When you think of planning for a new system, I'd imagine 90% of your time is spent agonizing over the launch, with only 10% handling the post launch of say 6-12 months. If they've screwed up the launch this badly, I wonder how it bodes for the 6 months?

Things don't happen in a day, they take months to put together and now Microsoft has been spending time tending to this launch that should have been spent on moving the platform forward. Also, publishers that were planning on shipping games in the 3-6 month time ratio, might consider pushing them out until the installed base gets a bit higher.

Basically, I'm wondering if this could delay could have a ripple effect on the 360 for a while.

 

[kaching]

It's a good system and it won't get Dreamcasted but fanboy bragging rights are certainly on the line here.

 

[AirBrian]

then that means what? the 360 still has more than enough going for all the doom and gloom in this thread to be pointless. MS will have almost a full year in the US and possibly europe to clean up once they get their act together. If the software is there then it wont be a problem. Look at the demand for the system. if there was no demand then there'd be an issue but you still have people looking to line up at best buy just on rumors on the net of possible shipments coming in. you never saw anything like that with the ps2 or any other system for that matter. the demand is nuts.

That second Best Buy shipment was very real. And your last comment fails completely.

 

[D3VI0US]

IF there are 5-6 million units moved by June

Well when we're talking on a worldwide scale, with launches in a bunch of fringe territories occuring as well and low supply everywhere selling another 4 million doesn't seem like much of a stretch if they can make em. Obviously they should have had that other hardware partner on board well before launch, still has their June target even lowered?

 

[Guy LeDouche]

japan doesnt equal america.

pst... PS2 has sold alot more in the US than Japan.

 

[kaching]

Question: Why is most of the blame for any Xbox360 woes levelled at Moore? I've lost track of his and Allard's respective positions in relation to the Xbox. Shouldn't Allard take more flack, having presided over the lackluster performance of Xbox and now the lackluster X360 rollout?

 

[SolidSnakex]

japan doesnt equal america.

The PS2 had huge demand worldwide. Sony couldn't get the demand in check for several months after release of the system, and that's with them shipping more than MS has. I'm pretty sure its still the fastest selling console ever right out the gate (it sold 500k day 1 in the US).

 

[monkeyrun]

japan doesnt equal america.

Seriously did you get into gaming yesterday?
or did you just learn about ebay?

 

[RidgeCityFM]

i was reffering to the whole linning up at stores thing. nothing more. i know people lined up in stores a few times in japan for the ps2 but i dont remember that type of thing happening here at all for 2nd and 3rd shipments. they just kinda showed up whenever on shelves.

 

[sonycowboy]

you never saw anything like that with the ps2 or any other system for that matter. the demand is nuts.

The PS2's demand was most likely stronger in all 3 regions. You do understand supply and demand, right? There is NO 360 supply in US & Europe, so any demand will be nuts.

As has been pointed out a couple of times in this thread, the PS2 sold more than the 360 based on every metric we've seen so far, and that includes Microsoft's worldwide launch vs PS2's Japan only launch.

Now, Microsoft will take a lead in a few months most likely as it was 6 months after the Japanese launch and they should be able to overtake the PS2's shipments before it launched in the US & Europe.

While I do expect great things from the 360, it's not quite such a no brainer that they will actually hit 10M in a year as the PS2 did. I thought it was guaranteed, but these production problems + Japanese disinterest will make it interesting. It looks to hinge on how the 360 will do once supply clears up in Europe.

 

[SolidSnakex]

i was reffering to the whole linning up at stores thing. nothing more. i know people lined up in stores a few times in japan for the ps2 but i dont remember that type of thing happening here at all for 2nd and 3rd shipments. they just kinda showed up whenever on shelves.

That was in France. It happened everywhere though.

 

[Red Blaster]

i was reffering to the whole linning up at stores thing. nothing more. i know people lined up in stores a few times in japan for the ps2 but i dont remember that type of thing happening here at all for 2nd and 3rd shipments. they just kinda showed up whenever on shelves.

Do you live in bizarro stupidland world where nothing is correct?

 

[DrEvil]

My Eb got 22 systems at launch, we have seen TWO CORE UNITS SINCE THEN. This was a few days before xmas. That's it. We dont know when we're getting more, or how many.

We've got about 26 people still on a list from last september. Fun times.