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[AniHawk]

I think the DS gets a small price cut (lite to $100, DSi to $150) in preparation for the 3DS ($200? maybe...), and the system continues to do well sometime into 2011, with that being its last real holiday, and shipments completely drying up in 2012. The system "only" needs to sell 25-30 million to hit the PS2's worldwide numbers.

 

[kswiston]

The DS should have no problem passing the PS2 for the best selling gaming system of all time worldwide, considering shipments should be in the 130-135M range by now. The PS2 is going to top out around the 145-150M mark.

However, I no longer see 200M for the DS, something I thought was a lock in December, before Nintendo announced the system's replacement is less than a year away. 175M should still be doable.

I'm still amazed by how much the console market has grown this generation. 360 is a distant second, but will still sell more than the Gamecube and the Xbox combined in the US. PS3 will be the highest selling third place system by like 10M units.

 

[TheThunder]

However, I no longer see 200M for the DS, something I thought was a lock in December, before Nintendo announced the system's replacement is less than a year away. 175M should still be doable.

175M is a little bit too high but it all comes down to Nintendo's support and how the handle the 3DS.

 

[Stumpokapow]

175M is a little bit too high but it all comes down to Nintendo's support and how the handle the 3DS.

They're at 125 as of the end of calendar 2009. They were at 96 at the end of calendar 2008. That's 29 million in a year. They project stable sales this year. That brings them to just over 150m by the end of the calendar year.

Let's assume 3DS launches this fall in Japan and next spring in America. You really don't think that 25m more DS units in calendar 2011 onward is doable?

 

[D.Lo]

However, I no longer see 200M for the DS, something I thought was a lock in December, before Nintendo announced the system's replacement is less than a year away. 175M should still be doable.

If Nintendo keeps the DS going as a budget system I can still see 200M or close. Remember the GBA outselling the PS3 months? Heck, in NA the GBA pwnd the DS for most of a year.

The only thing I really see stopping it is the 3DS being such an amazing experience that nobody cares about anything else once it hits.

 

[TheThunder]

They're at 125 as of the end of calendar 2009. They were at 96 at the end of calendar 2008. That's 29 million in a year. They project stable sales this year. That brings them to just over 150m by the end of the calendar year.

Let's assume 3DS launches this fall in Japan and next spring in America. You really don't think that 25m more DS units in calendar 2011 onward is doable?

It is doable but it will come down to support, pricing and how they launch the 3DS.

 

[ThatObviousUser]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=387515

That was pretty much it

I did my part. I knew this would happen but I put the date at the top and highlighted it anyways...

I say we blame doomed1 for not making an official thread. :/

 

[Sohter.Nura]

Are you guys kidding? The PS2 was released in 2000 and it still sells at least 100k+ every month with barely any support. I think the DS will have very, very long legs like the PS2, and heck, maybe even further legs when it gets its price cuts.

 

[Effect]

thanks for the RS2 numbers.

I wanna start this short post by saying that yes, it's impossible to resonate and satisfy everyone, but in my opinion, Ubisoft did so much right with Red Steel 2 that it's a shame it did so poorly, and this is why Wii owners don't deserve nice things.

and Tom Salta rules.

I believe the developers did a lot right with Red Steel 2. However the advertising department is another story. I think the two are separate. People might buy overtime (likely the case) as they get the extra money but I don't see what Ubisoft did to deserve huge up front sales. Midnight ads that show more live actors is almost the same as no TV ads I think. I ask again what PS3 and 360 games that get TV ads have them limited to midnight time slots? Why do only Wii games get that treatment? The sales aren't that surprising I think.

 

[charlequin]

Depends on 3DS's release date, and whether it's backwards compatible though doesn't it?

We already know it's backwards compatible.

No. Even if the 3DS is announced this year, it most likely wouldn't be released until mid next year in the US.

They've said it'll be out by the end of the FY. Latest we'll see a US release is March.

Not to mention the DS won't start selling 0 copies the day the 3DS is released.

Very true however. The DS is going to do an absolute bare minimum of 5m units after the 3DS comes out, and could very well do quite a few more, esp. if 3DS launches at a bit of a premium (say, $200) and the DS gets discounted to encourage people to keep buying those for their kids.

 

[kswiston]

Are you guys kidding? The PS2 was released in 2000 and it still sells at least 100k+ every month with barely any support. I think the DS will have very, very long legs like the PS2, and heck, maybe even further legs when it gets its price cuts.

Nintendo doesn't support their consoles after the release of a successor system in the same way that Sony does. First party DS releases will slow to a trickle leading up to the release of the 3DS, and will stop completely by the end of 2011/beginning of 2012. Advertising for DS hardware/software will also drop off rapidly. Third parties will continue releasing games for the DS well into 2012 or 2013, but hardware sales will drop off faster than they did for the PS2.

PS2's extreme legs are the result of a few things:

1) Sony needed continued success from the PS2 to offset PS3 related losses for the first 2+ years of this generation.

2) Price point for current gen consoles was much higher than it had been in the past, resulting in the PS2 being 2-4 times cheaper than competing consoles. Coupled with the fact that some of the hottest multiplatform games of 2006-2008 were still being released on the system (Guitar Hero, Madden, Call of Duty, etc), the Playstation 2 continued to be an attractive purchase for gamers/families on a budget.

3) The PSP being more powerful than expected of a handheld in 2005, and the Wii being less powerful than expected of a console in 2006 has resulted in the PS2 having two current gen systems in the same general graphical/processing power ballpark. This has led to the PS2 receiving a lot of ports from both the PSP and Wii that usually wouldn't be the case. If you were a PS2 only owner, you were still getting a decent number of new releases in 2007-2009, even though we were well into the next generation.

None of these scenarios will hold true for the DS to 3DS transition.

1) Nintendo won't release the 3DS at a loss per unit sold, so they won't be depending as much on the DS for profits as Sony did the PS2. Also, unlike the PS3, I think the 3DS will be a huge success from the start.

2) My guess on pricing. i) Nintendo will phase out the DS lite before launching the 3DS, and will drop the DSi to $130 (DSi XL might drop to $150). ii) The 3DS will launch at $180-200.

While there will be a price disparity, it won't be near the same levels as seen between the PS2 and Wii/360/PS3.

3) Even if the 3DS was only at PSP or iPhone levels in terms of power, it would be much more powerful than the current DS. There will be nothing for the DS to receive cheap ports from, and handheld developers will be switching their focus the the 3DS. A constant stream of new releases is important for extending the longevity of a console.

 

[Version 3.0]

2) My guess on pricing. i) Nintendo will phase out the DS lite before launching the 3DS, and will drop the DSi to $130 (DSi XL might drop to $150). ii) The 3DS will launch at $180-200.

I wouldn't bet on that. Nintendo's been extremely stubborn on price drops this gen. The DS has only had one, which was done to clear out the original model. Considering the success they've had with raising the DS' price since then, I think they might just stop shipping the older models, never dropping the price, and give up the long tail-end life that other top systems have enjoyed.

 

[John Harker]

btw, what's the pricing on RedSteel 2?

I just came from Best Buy, and the game is $39.99 standalone and $49.99 with the M+. Didn't realize it was so cheap. That's a super bargain for $49 with M+.

It's super fun, which is all that really matters.

 

[charlequin]

I wouldn't bet on that. Nintendo's been extremely stubborn on price drops this gen. The DS has only had one, which was done to clear out the original model. Considering the success they've had with raising the DS' price since then, I think they might just stop shipping the older models, never dropping the price, and give up the long tail-end life that other top systems have enjoyed.

How does that make any sense, though? Nintendo's price-drop stance has always been that they don't want to artificially create an expectation that current products will price-drop when they're still just as good as ever. Once the 3DS is hitting, the DS really isn't as good as ever -- it no longer plays all of Nintendo's newest handheld software. At that point it certainly makes more sense to pricedrop the old system then just stubbornly refuse to make any more profit on it if that profit requires a pricecut.

 

[Massa]

How does that make any sense, though? Nintendo's price-drop stance has always been that they don't want to artificially create an expectation that current products will price-drop when they're still just as good as ever. Once the 3DS is hitting, the DS really isn't as good as ever -- it no longer plays all of Nintendo's newest handheld software. At that point it certainly makes more sense to pricedrop the old system then just stubbornly refuse to make any more profit on it if that profit requires a pricecut.

It makes sense, sure, but I still wouldn't be surprised if they just discontinue the system (or at least the DS Lite) instead of dropping the price. This is the same company that has no Player's Choice line at all anymore - they want you to either buy games at $50 or not at all.

 

[EDarkness]

Wii is such an odd system. It's like gamers have completely given up hope in it.

For the most part, I think they have. So much potential totally lost.

 

[TheThunder]

So no leaks so far for the games that are outside the top 20 or even get a better measure for the games 20-11 ?

 

[Bitmap Frogs]

Red Steel 2 problem is that the original was a masterpiece of awkward game design and old school mechanics - and they changed their ways 100%.

 

[Gamer @ Heart]

How much do you guys think being a motion + exclusive game hurt it?

 

[Massa]

How much do you guys think being a motion + exclusive game hurt it?

If anything it probably helped, it's still a $50 game.

 

[Version 3.0]

How does that make any sense, though?

It makes Nintendo sense. So yeah, it's batshit insane, but they still make millions billions.

edit: also, the Lite never dropped, and it isn't as good / doesn't play all software anymore.

 

[charlequin]

It makes sense, sure, but I still wouldn't be surprised if they just discontinue the system (or at least the DS Lite) instead of dropping the price.

Even though that particular decision you cite is foolish foolery that a few nameless GAF posters should feel ashamed at ever having defended, I still don't think there's any chance they'll discontinue the DS when the 3DS comes out. NoJ had ordered NoA to kill the GBA as quickly as possible to help the DS take off and they still didn't actually stop manufacturing the system. I think continuing to sell systems well past their successors' releases is too well-ingrained, even compared to their self-defeating desire to never ever price drop anything ever.

edit: also, the Lite never dropped, and it isn't as good / doesn't play all software anymore.

But they still make it over here, and it still costs less than the DSi, even though in Japan no one wants Lites anymore.

Like, I really think that in a strict one-or-the-other decision between "keep making money on old hardware" and "don't pricedrop anything ever because Iwata read something stupid in a book once" the former will still always win out, but honestly there's also nothing stopping them from keeping the Lite at $120 and just letting it sell whatever it sells at that price point while the 3DS comes in at $200.

 

[ivysaur12]

It's not random. Red Steel 1 was horrible and it would take quite a bit to convince me to buy another game in that series. A million people bought the original based on concept and most of them were disappointed.

Burned once, twice shy.

Yeah. I'd say most of the Wii's "hardcore" userbase has pretty much given up on the system besides games that aren't Nintendo games (we'll see about MH3). But RS2 in particular was pretty tarnished by the first game.

 

[Shurs]

If anything it probably helped, it's still a $50 game.

Does it come with Motion+?

 

[sfog]

Does it come with Motion+?

Yes, as a $60 bundle with M+, or $50 standalone. I'm pretty sure it's also been on sale lately in some places as well. For instance, Amazon currently has the M+ bundle at $50 and the standalone game at $47.

 

[donny2112]

cmon MS, Halo Collection! Halo 1 & 2 ports with online play!

That probably factored into their shutting down of the Xbox service for Live. By the way, can Xbox originals (the downloaded version of games) be played online still on the 360?

 

[a Master Ninja]

By the way, can Xbox originals (the downloaded version of games) be played online still on the 360?

No.

 

[donny2112]

No.

Thanks. Even more reason for Microsoft to release a Halo Collection (use the HD cut-scenes from Halo 3's special editions and hi-end PC settings from the PC releases for the gameplay) with 360 Live support on the 360. With how long Halo 2's multi-player stayed popular, it could probably sell > 1 million if it came out at a budget price (e.g. $40 or less).

 

[Loudninja]

Thanks. Even more reason for Microsoft to release a Halo Collection (use the HD cut-scenes from Halo 3's special editions and hi-end PC settings from the PC releases for the gameplay) with 360 Live support on the 360. With how long Halo 2's multi-player stayed popular, it could probably sell > 1 million if it came out at a budget price (e.g. $40 or less).

They really should do this having 2 of the most played xbox games on the 360 sounds like and easy million seller.

 

[jetjevons]

Red Steel 2 is great and deserves to sell way better than 50k. :-(

 

[AceBandage]

Red Steel 2 problem is that the original was a masterpiece of awkward game design and old school mechanics - and they changed their ways 100%.

There's a lot of problems with Red Steel 2, first and foremost being that most of the people that would have bought it because of the original moved on.
And second, because the "core" gamers that would still exist on the system are extremely wary of third party games, especially Ubisoft.

 

[Grampa Simpson]

There's a lot of problems with Red Steel 2, first and foremost being that most of the people that would have bought it because of the original moved on.
And second, because the "core" gamers that would still exist on the system are extremely wary of third party games, especially Ubisoft.

That is in fact the sales-age conclusion on the subject as far as I've seen. I rather agree with it.

 

[user_nat]

Thanks. Even more reason for Microsoft to release a Halo Collection (use the HD cut-scenes from Halo 3's special editions and hi-end PC settings from the PC releases for the gameplay) with 360 Live support on the 360. With how long Halo 2's multi-player stayed popular, it could probably sell > 1 million if it came out at a budget price (e.g. $40 or less).

I can imagine the 10 page thread filled with milking comments if that were to be announced.

If they could put Live coop in them somehow I would probably buy though.

 

[RurouniZel]

I apologize if this has already been asked, but are there any NPD numbers for Lunar: Silver Star Harmony?

 

[AniHawk]

I apologize if this has already been asked, but are there any NPD numbers for Lunar: Silver Star Harmony?

There should be.

 

[RurouniZel]

There should be.

I suppose I should have asked "Does anyone know what the NPD numbers for Lunar: Silver Star Harmony?" instead.