So, where's this expectation (general, not necessarily from you) for particular software releases to move the needle in a meaningful and sustained manner?
You got to have a reason to buy the system initially.
The hardcore enthusiast may be satisfied to pay hundreds of dollars on promise of games, but that's definitely not the norm. Having the back catalog (rarely just one game) can make it desirable, but it still won't be bought if the price is too high.
I know this is kind of basic "someone has to want something before they'll buy it" type stuff, but that's really where the games come in. As has been said before, systems are just a means to get to the games. It's a "tax," if you will, that has to be paid to be able to then play Halo, Killzone, Mario Kart, etc. The game
s will help raise the demand, but it won't result in much sales, if the price is still prohibitive. Now, it will result in some sales. Games
do cause increases in hardware sales, even in the U.S. But the results are typically more temporary than price cuts.
So therein lies the question: What exactly is the market for the Wii U; fundamentally, who is the Wii U supposed to sell to?
For people who want to play the games on it, for which it first actually needs games people want to play. Don't know if you're trying to ask about "who wants a touchpad input device to play" or something, but if so, it's not about the hardware. It's about the games. The entertainment. The hardware is just a means to an end. Unless the hardware makes people
not want to use it (e.g. headaches from Virtual Boy), the hardware part is only relevant in if it allows the particular game to be made on it.
For Wii U, it first needs games, because it
first needs to be desirable to the mainstream purchasers. I don't think it actually is there, yet. If the games come without a price cut, there'll be some increase until the ones who wanted those games and were willing to pay that price are used up. However combining the games (to make the system actually desirable)
with a big price cut (there's nothing reasonable about a Nintendo system at $350, from my viewpoint, as it's not what
Nintendo has historically been at), opens up a much larger pool of buyers that would actually have a chance to be sustained with more software (which makes the system desirable to more at that price) before needing to cut price again later.
With Wii, it was a phenomenon. The pool who wanted Wii Sports was huge, as most everyone who played it wanted in. The $250 price of Wii Sports was reasonable for them. NSMBU for $350 is not, from my viewpoint.