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Official May 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

NPD Release: June 14th @ 4:30 p.m. EDT (thread posted around 6:30 p.m. EDT)
NPD Coverage: May 6th - June 2nd
Prediction Cut-off: I really just don't know anymore. It may have already happened.

April 2007 HW Results - thanks to sonycowboy
Nintendo DS - 471k
Wii - 360k
PlayStation 2 - 194k
PlayStation Portable - 183k
Xbox 360 - 174k
Game Boy Advance - 84k
PlayStation 3 - 82k
GameCube - 13k
Xbox - Unlisted


April 2007 SW Top 10 - thanks to sonycowboy
NDS POKEMON DIAMOND VERSION NINTENDO OF AMERICA APR 2007 EVERYONE (E) 1.045 M
NDS POKEMON PEARL VERSION NINTENDO OF AMERICA APR 2007 EVERYONE (E) 712K
WII SUPER PAPER MARIO NINTENDO OF AMERICA APR 2007 EVERYONE (E) 352K
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE NINTENDO OF AMERICA FEB 2007 EVERYONE (E) 249K
360 GUITAR HERO 2 W/ GUITAR ACTIVISION MAR 2007 TEEN (T) 197K
PS2 GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR ACTIVISION NOV 2006 TEEN (T) 142K
360 SPIDER-MAN 3 ACTIVISION APR 2007 TEEN (T) 117K
PS2 SPIDER-MAN 3 ACTIVISION APR 2007 TEEN (T) 105K
PS2 GOD OF WAR II SONY MAR 2007 MATURE (M) 101K
PS2 MLB '07: THE SHOW SONY FEB 2007 EVERYONE (E) 79K

Possibly Significant U.S. Releases - Thanks to donny2112.
360 - Marvel: Ultimate Alliance Gold (5/15), Shrek the Third (5/15), Pirates of the Caribbean (5/22), Forza 2 (5/29)
NDS - Pirates of the Caribbean (5/22)
PS2 - Shrek the Third (5/15), Pirates of the Caribbean (5/22)
PS3 - MLB '07: The Show (5/15), Pirates of the Caribbean (5/22)
PSP - Pirates of the Caribbean (5/22)
WII - Shrek the Third (5/15), Pirates of the Caribbean (5/22), Mario Party 8 (5/29)

Japanese Sales - 5/7 - 6/3 - Thanks to Media Create, Cheesemeister, and cvxfreak, and donny2112.
NDS - 525,816
WII - 233,129
PSP - 114,393
PS2 - 44,420
PS3 - 36,123
360 - 8,394
GBA - 2,845
NGC - 1,073

Format thanks to donny2112.

Please use these guidelines if at all possible:
Cheesemeister said:
Post formatting guidelines for the parser...

List numeric values following system tags on their own lines in a post. All non-numeric characters following the tag will be stripped out, save for the first instance of the letter K in either upper or lower-case, which will be replaced with 3 zeroes. Make predictions by the set deadline, at which point the parser will be run. If a given poster has more than one post with predictions, guesses in subsequent posts will override previous guesses. By the same token, subsequent guesses on the same system within a given post will overwrite previous guesses.

Some examples of valid input follow, but do at least keep them readable for your fellow forum-goers.

[PS2] 123,456
[PSP] 123456
[PS3] 123K
[360] 123k - because of Halo 3 anticipation
[GBA]12 3 Totakeke
[NGC] 1 2 3 4 5 6
[NDS] 123456 (You will say WOW.)
[WII] 123'456

Invalid input:

Sony PlayStation 2: 123,455 plus one
PS Three - 123KK
Weeeeee ~ one hundred twenty-three thousand kajillion units!!!1lol
...

Any lines without valid input, i.e. your comments, will be ignored. Questions, comments?

Thanks to Alkaline for the reminder to link the previous threads:

April NPD Thread

April NPD Prediction Thread

Some stuff from last year, thanks again to donny2112:

Some HW
Apr-06
May-06

SW w/o numbers
Apr-06
May-06

********************************************************************
Results:
sonycowboy said:
It was a PHENOMENAL month for the industry, totally destroying last years results in EVERY category. The reason? One word NINTENDO

Hardware

[NDS] 423,150
[WII] 338,278
[PSP] 221,120
[PS2] 187,765
[360] 154,932
[PS3] 81,604
[GBA] 80,554
[NGC] 10,728


Software
331k NDS POKEMON DIAMOND VERSION
314k WII MARIO PARTY 8
249k PS2 SPIDER-MAN 3
238k NDS POKEMON PEARL VERSION
227k WII PLAY W/ REMOTE
217k 360 FORZA MOTORSPORT 2
184k 360 GUITAR HERO 2 W/ GUITAR
140k 360 SPIDER-MAN 3
138k 360 COMMAND & CONQUER 3: TIBERIUM WARS
131k PS2 GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR

11 WII SUPER PAPER MARIO Nintendo
12 360 CRACKDOWN Microsoft
13 PS3 MLB '07: THE SHOW Sony
14 WII LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS Nintendo
15 WII SPIDER-MAN 3 Activision
16 360 SHADOWRUN Microsoft
17 PS3 SPIDER-MAN 3 Activision
18 PS2 MLB '07: THE SHOW Sony
19 360 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K7 Take 2 Interactive
20 360 GEARS OF WAR Microsoft
21 NDS NEW SUPER MARIO BROS Nintendo
22 NDS SPIDER-MAN 3 Activision
23 360 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD'S END Disney
24 PS2 GOD OF W AR II Sony
25 360 TOM CLANCY'S RAINBOW SIX: VEGAS Ubi Soft

Category Performance
Category May 2006 May 2007 Increase
Video Games 548M 815M 48.7%
Video Games Hardware 191M 319M 67.2%
Console Hardware 123M 221M 79.1%
Portable Game Hardware 67M 98M 45.3%
Video Games Software 286M 381M 33.2%
Console Software 209M 274M 31.0%
Portable Game Software 77M 107M 39.2%
Video Game Accessories 72M 115M 61.3%

Cheesemeister said:
npd0705-results.gif


1. The Sphinx - 74,437
2. Dice Man - 80,773
3. LiquidMamba - 84,737
3. cvxfreak - 84,737
5. rage1973 - 88,281
6. davepoobond - 90,375
7. borghe - 90,411
8. Chiggs - 92,073
9. duk - 98,955
10. JDSN - 99,847
11. GAF Average - 104,028
12. sonycowboy - 106,535
13. fanduck - 106,673
14. Nicktals - 111,275
15. rostocker - 111,967
16. gollumsluvslave - 114,601
17. Clever Pun - 115,511
18. TheKurgan - 116,181
19. titiklabingapat - 116,411
20. verplant - 116,673
21. Kurosaki Ichigo - 119,881
22. bycha - 120,425
23. NinSoX - 120,773
24. Maxwell House - 121,181
25. jey_16 - 121,303
26. Darunia - 121,865
27. dammitmattt - 121,967
28. KevinRo - 123,437
29. bud - 124,745
30. MikeMyers - 124,881
31. CoryCubed - 125,015
32. Cedeo - 125,503
33. pswii60 - 129,421
34. kkg1701 - 130,411
34. Chibbi Brady - 130,411
36. LOCK - 130,425
37. F#A#Oo - 131,771
38. BuzzJive - 131,811
39. Heidir - 132,881
40. Vagabundo - 133,437
41. John Dunbar - 133,967
42. Jokeropia - 134,881
43. Branduil - 134,955
44. Barf_the_Mog - 138,281
45. Mariah Carey - 138,329
46. Fuzzy - 141,197
47. Empty_One - 141,881
48. USD - 142,737
49. duderon - 144,411
50. Jammy - 145,095
51. Drensch - 145,147
52. Saitou - 145,411
53. AirBrian - 145,617
54. Brak - 146,303
55. Brakara - 146,411
56. Chumly - 147,119
57. Cheebs - 147,329
58. donny2112 - 147,567
59. kisakiproject - 148,603
60. jepense - 149,881
61. hadareud - 150,267
62. Gekkonidae - 150,955
63. VanMardigan - 152,737
64. argon - 153,411
65. JJConrad - 155,412
66. RiskyChris - 155,967
67. tinderbox - 156,411
68. kottila - 159,267
69. the thoroughbred - 159,747
70. RubberJohnny - 159,873
71. Mr. Pointy - 160,173
72. Hero - 161,411
73. Diablos54 - 161,437
74. MindCollizion - 161,959
75. devilscallmedad - 163,229
76. starship - 165,217
77. Wyndstryker - 165,411
78. ShutEye - 165,881
79. GhaleonEB - 166,967
80. DSWii60 - 167,095
81. DayShallCome - 167,411
82. Innotech - 167,665
83. Lorul2 - 168,437
84. DeaconKnowledge - 169,729
85. apujanata - 170,109
86. Segata Sanshiro - 171,303
87. Rancid Mildew - 171,967
88. mood - 173,425
89. JoshuaJSlone - 174,881
90. Ch Totoro - 175,411
91. felipeko - 175,639
92. SpacLock - 175,981
93. Mrbob - 176,121
94. Cruceh - 176,575
95. Tf53 - 178,503
96. SpudBud - 178,951
97. Omnicent - 179,303
98. Hyllian - 179,317
99. Pope Benedict XVI - 179,421
100. Haunted One - 179,951
101. neondriver - 181,267
102. Forgotten Ancient - 181,711
103. schuelma - 181,881
104. Bildi - 182,411
105. rikitikitik - 182,629
106. Mr. Pachunga Chung - 183,629
107. Blablurn - 184,121
108. Xzbeat - 185,317
108. C4Lukins - 185,317
110. Stop It - 186,303
111. beermonkey@tehbias - 188,411
112. STG! - 189,203
113. Mojo - 189,529
114. Borys - 189,601
115. Taurus - 189,881
116. Tobor - 191,411
117. dogonfire - 191,951
118. dyls - 192,831
119. Fio Maravilha - 193,773
120. TwinsDad - 194,203
121. The M.O.B - 195,411
122. Orlics - 198,229
123. bmf - 200,425
124. legend166 - 201,617
125. kassatsu - 201,951
126. AstroLad - 204,967
127. sp0rsk - 205,565
128. Sho_Nuff82 - 206,437
129. BrodiemanTTR - 207,411
129. Zynx - 207,411
131. turtle553 - 207,603
132. tanod - 207,673
133. ksamedi - 207,811
134. kpop100 - 208,673
134. Earthstrike - 208,673
136. jamesinclair - 208,881
137. SuperPac - 209,773
138. Deku - 211,109
139. Orgen - 211,511
140. Ash Sparrow - 212,737
141. Odysseus - 212,967
142. dark_preacher - 213,565
143. vicious_killer_squirrel - 214,411
144. DiatribeEQ - 214,567
145. Warm Machine - 216,081
146. Ynos Yrros - 218,023
147. oo Kosma oo - 218,267
148. Miguga64 - 222,059
149. Hammer24 - 222,159
150. flipping_heck - 222,737
151. Sule - 223,955
152. Pedobear - 228,073
153. Freki - 229,425
154. Sgt. Killjoy - 230,329
155. Michan - 230,639
156. jj984jj - 231,515
157. Frankfurter - 234,411
158. AniHawk - 234,737
159. clo1_2000 - 238,603
160. besada - 239,811
161. BloodAdo - 242,737
162. GoldenEye 007 - 243,275
163. jarrod - 246,317
164. Alkaliine - 250,059
165. Parl - 252,411
166. Zerostatic - 254,675
167. dirtmonkey37 - 262,737
168. Joe Molotov - 263,119
169. Gaborn - 263,303
170. Snaku - 265,859
171. Shin Johnpv - 268,773
172. MasterMFauli - 269,329
173. shagg_187 - 271,959
174. Patton - 274,847
175. Square2005 - 279,313
176. scionguyXB - 281,303
177. Bo130 - 283,281
178. Crowza - 283,437
179. Fredescu - 287,203
180. Kenka - 289,603
181. :enemyglider: - 292,267
182. JavyOO7 - 303,759
183. Dizzan - 304,811
184. evlcookie - 305,611
185. perfectchaos007 - 308,425
186. CNL - 311,281
187. Linkup - 317,411
188. B_Rik_Schitthaus - 319,425
189. PhoenixDark - 322,837
190. All Hail C-Webb - 324,881
191. Pachter - 326,673
192. AzureNightmareXE - 333,773
193. corez - 337,639
194. TheKingsCrown - 342,315
195. crazythan - 353,759
196. underfooter - 366,673
197. sazzy - 376,411
198. Flakster99 - 432,955
199. Eteric Rice - 476,203
200. VALIS - 977,059
201. Merovingian - 1,045,059
202. Gahiggidy - 1,273,812
203. spwolf - 1,333,959

sonycowboy said:
User Total My System
NPD 160.00
Dice Man 151.76
borghe 150.39
JDSN 150.35
Nicktals 149.90
duk 149.62
LiquidMamba 149.58
cvxfreak 149.58
fanduck 148.88
rage1973 148.81
Branduil 148.45
bud 147.78
sonycowboy 147.42
Saitou 147.32
MikeMyers 147.25
BuzzJive 146.91
TheKurgan 146.86
Clever Pun 146.81
bycha 146.67
jey_16 146.27
duderon 145.87
F#A#Oo 145.79
Kurosaki Ichigo 145.68
kkg1701 145.68
apujanata 145.53
Hyllian 145.33
John Dunbar 145.28
pswii60 145.26
NinSoX 145.21
Jokeropia 144.99
Heidir 144.91
USD 144.85
felipeko 144.82
CoryCubed 144.53
davepoobond 144.47
LOCK 144.46
Omnicent 144.36
mood 144.34
titiklabingapat 144.00
argon 143.92
dammitmattt 143.91
Drensch 143.89
Mariah Carey 143.83
Maxwell House 143.80
Diablos54 143.80
VanMardigan 143.78
Hero 143.73
Darunia 143.70
The Sphinx 143.53
Brakara 143.46
donny2112 143.44
Cedeo 143.25
Mojo 142.91
Stop It 142.85
SpacLock 142.80
RubberJohnny 142.65
Barf_the_Mog 142.51
rostocker 142.46
DeaconKnowledge 142.23
jepense 142.22
Brak 142.04
Chumly 141.95
Bildi 141.94
Jammy 141.90
starship 141.78
DayShallCome 141.68
gollumsluvslave 141.65
kassatsu 141.56
Rancid Mildew 141.55
KevinRo 141.39
Gekkonidae 141.37
Orgen 141.11
STG! 141.02
Empty_One 141.00
bmf 140.92
Xzbeat 140.82
Mr. Pachunga Chung 140.81
Mr. Pointy 140.61
Ynos Yrros 140.54
jamesinclair 140.51
hadareud 140.31
Fio Maravilha 140.30
JJConrad 140.28
Cheebs 140.02
 
Post formatting guidelines for the parser...

List numeric values following system tags on their own lines in a post. All non-numeric characters following the tag will be stripped out, save for the first instance of the letter K in either upper or lower-case, which will be replaced with 3 zeroes. Make predictions by the set deadline, at which point the parser will be run. If a given poster has more than one post with predictions, guesses in subsequent posts will override previous guesses. By the same token, subsequent guesses on the same system within a given post will overwrite previous guesses.

Some examples of valid input follow, but do at least keep them readable for your fellow forum-goers.

[PS2] 123,456
[PSP] 123456
[PS3] 123K
[360] 123k - because of Halo 3 anticipation
[GBA]12 3 Totakeke
[NGC] 1 2 3 4 5 6
[NDS] 123456 (You will say WOW.)
[WII] 123'456

Invalid input:

Sony PlayStation 2: 123,455 plus one
PS Three - 123KK
Weeeeee ~ one hundred twenty-three thousand kajillion units!!!1lol
...

Any lines without valid input, i.e. your comments, will be ignored. Questions, comments?
 
sp0rsk said:
Is it that time of the month already?

Let's hope people can follow directions.
It is. I hadn't seen it posted already, and I'm not sure what makes the thread official or not, but I wanted to post predictions dag nab it, so I did it.
 

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
i'll take a shot.



[PS2] 180k
[PSP] 175k
[PS3] 80k
[360] 150k
[GBA] 80k
[NGC] 15k
[NDS] 430k
[WII] 320k
 

polg

Member
sp0rsk said:
Is it that time of the month already?

Let's hope people can follow directions.

Ash Sparrow said:
Nintendo DS - 400k
Wii - 300k
PlayStation 2 - 190k
PlayStation Portable - 130k
Xbox 360 - 190k
Game Boy Advance - 70k
PlayStation 3 - 70k
GameCube - 10k

fail.gif
 

sprsk

force push the doodoo rock
bmf said:
It is. I hadn't seen it posted already, and I'm not sure what makes the thread official or not, but I wanted to post predictions dag nab it, so I did it.

When do the NPD's come out? This week?
 
Never have done one of these thingys. Meh, why the hell not.

[WII] 395k
[PS3] 65k
[360] 145k
[NDS] 500k
[PS2] 170k
[PSP] 165k
[GCN] 10k
[GBA] 72k
 

Nicktals

Banned
My first try, being fairly conservative I think.

[PS2] 185k
[PSP] 192k
[PS3] 75k
[360] 152k
[GBA] 80k
[NGC] 10k
[NDS] 455k
[WII] 375k
 
[NDS] 445k
[WII] 350k
[PS2] 180k
[PSP] 168k
[360] 165k
[GBA] 78k
[PS3] 75k
[GCN] 8k

Japan's total for the last month is around 250k, for reference.
 

Gahiggidy

My aunt & uncle run a Mom & Pop store, "The Gamecube Hut", and sold 80k WiiU within minutes of opening.
[WII] 795k
[PS3] 4
[360] 3
[NDS] 500k
[PS2] 17k
[PSP] 25k
[GCN] 119k
[GBA] 52k
 

dogonfire

Member
Alright, I'll give this a shot.

[NDS] 382k
[WII] 290k
[PSP] 185k
[360] 178K
[PS2] 155k
[PS3] 87k
[GBA] 81k
[GCN] 6k
[XBX] 0K
 
Branduil said:
Would someone be kind enough to link to the numbers for April and May of last year?

Yeah, I would like to see that as well. Is May traditionally one of the slower months? Software releases seem to suggest that and everything not named Wii and DS should see some form of slowdown.
 
If anyone wants to suggest significant releases, please feel free. To me it's kinda subjective, and I will probably miss releases on platforms that I do not own.
 

donny2112

Member
Thanks, bmf! :)

Japanese Sales May 7-June 3

[NDS] 525,816
[WII] 233,129
[PSP] 114,393
[PS2] 44,420
[PS3] 36,123
[360] 8,394
[GBA] 2,845

Possibly Significant U.S. Releases

360 - Marvel: Ultimate Alliance Gold (5/15), Shrek the Third (5/15), Pirates of the Caribbean (5/22), Forza 2 (5/29)
NDS - Pirates of the Caribbean (5/22)
PS2 - Shrek the Third (5/15), Pirates of the Caribbean (5/22)
PS3 - MLB '07: The Show (5/15), Pirates of the Caribbean (5/22)
PSP - Pirates of the Caribbean (5/22)
WII - Shrek the Third (5/15), Pirates of the Caribbean (5/22), Mario Party 8 (5/29)


I'll do my predictions later.
 
Branduil said:
Would someone be kind enough to link to the numbers for April and May of last year?

That would be pretty hard I think, since searching these days only does to the 1st of January 2006.

Someone might have a link but don't hold your breath.

[PS3] 87K
[360] 160K
[WII] 295K

(not interested in last gen sales)

Why did you predict Wii then?
 
[NDS] 406k
[WII] 325k
[PS2] 210k
[PSP] 175k
[360] 192k
[GBA] 101k
[PS3] 78k
[GCN] 11k
[XBX] 0K

I'm going to drop my DS and Wii numbers because I don't think Nintendo will have shipped a huge amount of them this month. No Pokebomb or such.
 
[NDS] 450k
[WII] 275k
[360] 200K
[PS2] 225K
[PSP] 200k
[GBA] 75K
[PS3] 75K
[GCN] 10K
[XBX] 1k

Software Predictions said:
I lowballed Nintendo's console because the Japanese shipments over the same time period were just over 250k, so it seems like it was a low output month for Nintendo, unless they managed to re-shift resources for some reason. The Xbox 2 should stabilize to its 50k/week numbers now that Elite speculation, release, and fanfare has come, gone, and subsided.

Some software numbers:

Pokemon Diamond/Pearl - 600k/550k
Mario party 8 - 500k 0_o
Forza 2 - 350k
W. Play - 200k
Super Paper Mario - 175k
Command & Conquer 3 - 175k
Guitar Hero 2 - 150k
Shadowrun - 100k
Crackdown - 100k

Forgot Spiderman/Pirates/Shrek garbage. Expect all to blow up on Xbox2/Playstation2.

Edit: Foolproof. :lol
 
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