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[borghe]

What do you mean by "best-chosen"? It's certainly the biggest Wii exclusive, but the entire fanbase is on the playstation family and Wii controls aren't how any of them wanted Capcom to develop the series. That exclusivity will probably hurt the PS3 more than it helps the Wii.

I'm a firm believer that most gamerrs really don't know what they "want". Of course that doesn't necessarily mean most devs know what they want either... but I look at some of the awesome control schemes implemented because ot the wiimote and can't help but think a lot of the paranoia around the controller during it's announcement is downright laughable with how things have turned out.

Controls in MH3 could suck, or it could turn out to be a fresh (and fun) direction for the series.

 

[Big-E]

Holy shit. The biggest shock in this thread is that Ironman PS2 number. Inasne.

 

[VistraNorrez]

Chances are it'll never happen now that Activision and Harmonix have gone their seperate ways.

Shame, since I enjoy playing GHII on 360 but prefer the Wii controller. Once you get used to the perfection that is star power activation on Wii GHIII, everything else feels broken.

I figured it was a Harmonix thing, but damn did the other games have better songs overall. They really should try to figure out a way to atleast redo the songs and release them on a best of or something. Unless they figure out how to do DLC on the Wii. A harddrive wouls solve that problem of course.

 

[leroy hacker]

I'm a firm believer that most gamerrs really don't know what they "want". Of course that doesn't necessarily mean most devs know what they want either... but I look at some of the awesome control schemes implemented because ot the wiimote and can't help but think a lot of the paranoia around the controller during it's announcement is downright laughable with how things have turned out.

Controls in MH3 could suck, or it could turn out to be a fresh (and fun) direction for the series.

Certainly. It could be great. I haven't written the game off. I'm just arguing against it being "best-chosen", whatever that even means.

 

[schuelma]

Certainly. It could be great. I haven't written the game off. I'm just arguing against it being "best-chosen", whatever that even means.

I'm thinking he meant in terms of a franchise that is on its way up in Japan appealing to a demographic (teens) that the Wii hasn't hit yet.

 

[dammitmattt]

ahh.. but I ALSO gave anecdotal evidence that directly countered yours, not just GAF.

The point is that Nintendo games in general are seeing an improved level of performance from last gen and while the third party sales are lower than the 360 behemoth, they too are up from Gamecube third party sales last gen. So this "gamers don't take the wii seriously" is obviously full of shit when core games, first party and third, are selling better than they did last gen on gamecube. and as has been mentioned, core games are also dying HARD on the 360 and PS3 outside of the obviously notable titles/franchises (Halo, Gears, GTA, COD, etc). So it would be one thing if Wii was still seeing piss poor sales instead of actually improving, and third parties as a whole were flying on the HD systems outside of the monster titles/franchises, but neither of these are the case, which in turn pretty much invalidates your whole theory.

I'm curious about something. What evidence do you have that core games are "dying hard" on the 360 and PS3? 360 attach rate and 3rd party sales are great, and it's improving on the PS3 Overall software is vastly bigger than ever before, with a large portion of those sales coming on the 360/PS3, where most of the successful games are "core."

I would argue that based on sales numbers, core games are doing better than ever before, and combined with the boom in casual games, you are seeing the results as huge year over year over year increases in software sales.

So please, provide some evidence to back up your statement.

 

[leroy hacker]

I'm thinking he meant in terms of a franchise that is on its way up in Japan appealing to a demographic (teens) that the Wii hasn't hit yet.

That is a good explanation.

 

[Evlar]

I'm curious about something. What evidence do you have that core games are "dying hard" on the 360 and PS3? 360 attach rate and 3rd party sales are great, and it's improving on the PS3 Overall software is vastly bigger than ever before, with a large portion of those sales coming on the 360/PS3, where most of the successful games are "core."

I would argue that based on sales numbers, core games are doing better than ever before, and combined with the boom in casual games, you are seeing the results as huge year over year over year increases in software sales.

So please, provide some evidence to back up your statement.

Would we consider Haze a case in point? "Core" game with a large budget that's bombing spectacularly?

PS3 has had a number of regrettable disappointments this gen, sales-wise: Uncharted, Ratchet and Clank, Hot Shots Golf, and (compared to previous iterations) GT5P. I own three out of four of those games and enjoy them a lot, the quality is there. The sales are not.

 

[Haunted]

The 360 is doing fine software-wise.

No, that's not right. The 360 is a software beast with fantastic attach rates.

The PS3.... not so much.

edit: poster above me mentions some examples, although Japan is where HD is tanking bad at the moment.

It's definitely something to keep in mind when comparing the viability of the platforms for developers.

 

[schuelma]

I'm curious about something. What evidence do you have that core games are "dying hard" on the 360 and PS3? 360 attach rate and 3rd party sales are great, and it's improving on the PS3 Overall software is vastly bigger than ever before, with a large portion of those sales coming on the 360/PS3, where most of the successful games are "core."

I would argue that based on sales numbers, core games are doing better than ever before, and combined with the boom in casual games, you are seeing the results as huge year over year over year increases in software sales.

So please, provide some evidence to back up your statement.

His statement seems valid in Japan, but not particularly in the U.S.

 

[JudgeN]

Would we consider Haze a case in point? "Core" game with a large budget that's bombing spectacularly?

PS3 has had a number of regrettable disappointments this gen, sales-wise: Uncharted, Ratchet and Clank, Hot Shots Golf, and (compared to previous iterations) GT5P. I own three out of four of those games and enjoy them a lot, the quality is there. The sales are not.

What in gods name are you talking about Uncharted sold its million, it went black. Ratchet shipped a million, Heavenly sword sold a million. Hot Shot Golf has been out long enough but who know what it will do. PS3 games don't bomb nearly as bad as GAF believes they do, Haze did bomb but it was a crappy game. PS3 sales are better, not as good as 360 but there good enough to bring profit ie COD4, DMC4, AC, and etc.

 

[sphinx]

I am afraid to ask but whatever..

did Okami Wii flop hard? I mean...really, really hard?

 

[EmCeeGramr]

Did we ever get a top 20? Im curious about boom blox's position.

 

[schuelma]

I am afraid to ask but whatever..

did Okami Wii flop hard? I mean...really, really hard?

Capcom said it was "meeting expectations exactly".

So for GAF terms, it probably did.

 

[TheGrayGhost]

Well, there's two sides to it. You have articulated the downside very well. But the upside is, for small developers, and for developers like Sega who have not done well in the Playstation era of cinematic games, the Wii has leveled the playing field. Budget isn't as important anymore, what matters is who has the strongest ideas. And technically, any publisher can jump on the Wii train. They just have to shift their philosophy towards Nintendo's and away from one that frankly, as we can see from the sales of the HD consoles, was not very sustainable.

Hudson is also a great example to mention alongside SEGA.

 

[Zuhzuhzombie!!]

Did we ever get a top 20? Im curious about boom blox's position.

Seconded.

 

[blame space]

:lol The RROD is a nice touch.

 

[tehbear]

What in gods name are you talking about Uncharted sold its million, it went black. Ratchet shipped a million, Heavenly sword sold a million. Hot Shot Golf has been out long enough but who know what it will do. PS3 games don't bomb nearly as bad as GAF believes they do, Haze did bomb but it was a crappy game. PS3 sales are better, not as good as 360 but there good enough to bring profit ie COD4, DMC4, AC, and etc.

Not only that, to cite examples of games like Haze implies big budget games didn't bomb before. Sorry, will need better examples of core games dying than that (outside of Japan).

 

[dammitmattt]

your post neglects to touch on one major thing. The Wii and PS360 are drastically different in a pretty major area... control. Even non-nintenbots pretty unanimously agree that going back to RE5 from RE4Wii is going to be tough. And once you sit down with titles like Metroid Prime 3 and COD3 you begin to see the limitations of dual analog in FPS titles. We won't even go into the enjoyment you can get when developers implement varied controls in sandbox titles like Godfather, Scarface, Bully, etc. Hell, even most agree that the classic controller is more comfortable than the respective game pads on those systems.

I don't see anyone saying that the classic controller is better than the PS3 or especially 360 controllers. The left analog stick isn't in the right place for 3D games. The triggers suck. And it has a wire sticking out of it. The only thing I like it for are 2D games, but for today's 3D games, it is woefully inadequate.

On another point, if it's so great, then why is everyone using the GC controller to play Smash Bros?

 

[Zuhzuhzombie!!]

Fuck the classic controller.

 

[sphinx]

Capcom said it was "meeting expectations exactly".

So for GAF terms, it probably did.

What GAF thinks is irrelevant.

Capcom being satisfied with sales of products directed towards hardcore gamers on Wii is definitely good news.

And don't get me wrong, while I wished we could get RE5 on Wii at some point ( not anymore ), I want all 3rd parties, specially those that are good at what they do ( Square, Capcom, Konami mainly ) , to spread their support across all platforms with exclusives that really take advantage of each system's virtues.

3rd party quality games selling well on Wii is a big " fuck you" to Ubisoft, which is really Wii's worst enemy these days.

 

[phalestine]

I don't see anyone saying that the classic controller is better than the PS3 or especially 360 controllers. The left analog stick isn't in the right place for 3D games. The triggers suck. And it has a wire sticking out of it. The only thing I like it for are 2D games, but for today's 3D games, it is woefully inadequate.

On another point, if it's so great, then why is everyone using the GC controller to play Smash Bros?

Rumble. As for the CC the analogs are meh, but the D pad is amazing.

 

[Evlar]

I don't see anyone saying that the classic controller is better than the PS3 or especially 360 controllers. The left analog stick isn't in the right place for 3D games. The triggers suck. And it has a wire sticking out of it. The only thing I like it for are 2D games, but for today's 3D games, it is woefully inadequate.

On another point, if it's so great, then why is everyone using the GC controller to play Smash Bros?

I use a CC to play Smash. Works great.

 

[jjasper]

Would we consider Haze a case in point? "Core" game with a large budget that's bombing spectacularly?

Only if you think it is surprising that a game that averaged scores around 5/10 bombing like that.

 

[Evlar]

Only if you think it is surprising that a game that averaged scores around 5/10 bombing like that.

I don't think it's surprising at all. That's not the point. The point is someone risked a hell of a lot of money in development of that game and now they're sunk. It's the downside of the blockbuster model.

And anyway, the post was in response to another post that was implying the HD consoles hadn't seen many expensive bombs. It wasn't a commentary on quality.

 

[TheGrayGhost]

Fuck the classic controller.

Why? It's not as comfortable as the GCN controller, but I think it's definitely the best traditional controller this generation.

 

[jjasper]

So big expensive bombs we have Lair, Haze and Heavenly Sword ( is it really a bomb) ? 2 (or all) were heavily funded by a platform holder. That isn't really striking fear into 3rd parties.

 

[borghe]

I'm curious about something. What evidence do you have that core games are "dying hard" on the 360 and PS3? 360 attach rate and 3rd party sales are great, and it's improving on the PS3 Overall software is vastly bigger than ever before, with a large portion of those sales coming on the 360/PS3, where most of the successful games are "core."

I would argue that based on sales numbers, core games are doing better than ever before, and combined with the boom in casual games, you are seeing the results as huge year over year over year increases in software sales.

So please, provide some evidence to back up your statement.

overall software dollar rates are bigger than ever before. Outside of key franchises and titles, unit rates are pretty down, and even on the big titles (Halo 3, GTAIV, etc) unit rates are looking like they will end up down from last gen's final iterations as well. It should also be noted that as the "hardcore gamer's" system of choice, the 360 is selling woefully under last gen's "hardcore gamer's" system of choice. The core gamer market moved from the PS2 to the 360 yet the PS2 level numbers didn't move from the PS2 to 360... It's really nice to compare the 360 to XBox, but XBox's 3rd party numbers were already atrophied last gen compared to the PS2's anyway up until near the end of the generation.

it may seem like apples to oranges comparing 360 to PS2, but no more apples to oranges than comparing 360 to XBox. The bottom line is when looking at total 3rd party unit sales from last gen across all platforms and total third party unit sales across all platforms, unit sales are down, propped up by an average of 20% higher retail costs.

 

[flipping_heck]

Fuck the classic controller.

Whats wrong with it, aside from the size, its pretty much spot on

 

[dammitmattt]

Would we consider Haze a case in point? "Core" game with a large budget that's bombing spectacularly?

PS3 has had a number of regrettable disappointments this gen, sales-wise: Uncharted, Ratchet and Clank, Hot Shots Golf, and (compared to previous iterations) GT5P. I own three out of four of those games and enjoy them a lot, the quality is there. The sales are not.

Haze is not a good game. Also, there are good games that bomb every generation (Beyond Good and Evil, Psychonauts), but overall core game sales are very strong. On the PS3, third party games like COD4, Assassin's Creed, Madden, GTA4, etc. are selling very well. The problem with Ratchet and Hot Shots is that they came out too early on a system that doesn't have the casual userbase that it needs to support these games. GT5P is an overpriced demo that had no precedent, and I would argue that it sold very well for a demo, especially since we don't know the online sales. Uncharted is still the one that has me scratching my head, but it has done fairly well worldwide in the long run.

 

[Pureauthor]

So big expensive bombs we have Lair, Haze and Heavenly Sword ( is it really a bomb) ? 2 (or all) were heavily funded by a platform holder. That isn't really striking fear into 3rd parties.

Lair and Haze were considered sucky by almost everyone, and HS had some... I dunno, length issues? More pertinently - IIRC, HS didn't bomb at all.

 

[TheGrayGhost]

I don't see anyone saying that the classic controller is better than the PS3 or especially 360 controllers. The left analog stick isn't in the right place for 3D games. The triggers suck. And it has a wire sticking out of it. The only thing I like it for are 2D games, but for today's 3D games, it is woefully inadequate.

On another point, if it's so great, then why is everyone using the GC controller to play Smash Bros?

I just did, sorry. I think the two analog feel better and are more sensitive. Same with the analog shoulder buttons (I love the squishy feel), and d-pad is the best. It's as if Apple decided to make a controller.

edit: off-topic

 

[Evlar]

So big expensive bombs we have Lair, Haze and Heavenly Sword ( is it really a bomb) ? 2 (or all) were heavily funded by a platform holder. That isn't really striking fear into 3rd parties.

I would just LOVE to hear the commentary on GAF if Nintendo games were bombing on Wii. How many people do you think would claim third parties would be unconcerned by Mario Kart hypothetically bombing?

 

[borghe]

Haze is not a good game. Also, there are good games that bomb every generation (Beyond Good and Evil, Psychonauts), but overall core game sales are very strong. On the PS3, third party games like COD4, Assassin's Creed, Madden, GTA4, etc. are selling very well. The problem with Ratchet and Hot Shots is that they came out too early on a system that doesn't have the casual userbase that it needs to support these games. GT5P is an overpriced demo that had no precedent, and I would argue that it sold very well for a demo, especially since we don't know the online sales. Uncharted is still the one that has me scratching my head, but it has done fairly well worldwide in the long run.

selling below what similar third part efforts sold last gen on the "hardcore gamer's" alternate system? you switch from absolute comparisons to relative comparisons at a moment's notice to prop up your point.. odd.. Primary hardcore unit sales this gen (360) are under primary hardcore unit sales from last gen (PS2) and alternate hardcore unit sales this gen (PS3) are under alternate hardcore unit sales from last gen (Xbox).

Comparing 360 to XBox and PS3 now to PS3 at launch is a poor way to make an example.

 

[TheGrayGhost]

I would just LOVE to hear the commentary on GAF if Nintendo games were bombing on Wii. How many people do you think would claim third parties would be unconcerned by Mario Kart hypothetically bombing?

But it isn't. That is not reality.

 

[Pureauthor]

I would just LOVE to hear the commentary on GAF if Nintendo games were bombing on Wii. How many people do you think would claim third parties would be unconcerned by Mario Kart hypothetically bombing?

Concerned? They'd be ecstatic! Finally the accursed Nintendo games aren't hogging sales any longer, so they can immediately throw their biggest and best franchises on the Wii without fear of Nintendo overshadowing them.

Right? RIGHT?

 

[jjasper]

I would just LOVE to hear the commentary on GAF if Nintendo games were bombing on Wii. How many people do you think would claim third parties would be unconcerned by Mario Kart hypothetically bombing?

If their games were selling more than it I doubt they would care too much.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

What in gods name are you talking about Uncharted sold its million, it went black. Ratchet shipped a million, Heavenly sword sold a million. Hot Shot Golf has been out long enough but who know what it will do. PS3 games don't bomb nearly as bad as GAF believes they do, Haze did bomb but it was a crappy game. PS3 sales are better, not as good as 360 but there good enough to bring profit ie COD4, DMC4, AC, and etc.

I don't recall those games selling a million in the US since after all this is an NPD thread so you must be talking about US numbers right?

I think out of that list you mentioned COD4 is the only game to sell a million on the PS3 in the US. Not even Resistance has sold a million in the US yet.

 

[charlequin]

What do you mean by "best-chosen"?

It's a series that is renowned for its gameplay and not particularly for its visuals. It's a series that's popular with a broad base of people who are very enthusiastic about it, but also an audience -- mostly teenagers -- that's a little distinct from the Wii's audience to date, which means the game won't be directly competing with Nintendo's big franchises. It's a game with an online/multiplayer feature but not one that specifically calls out for an elaborate online framework, which means that the Wii's limitations with online access aren't a liability.

Basically, it's the sort of choice you make when you want to stake out your own space as a victor on an under-realized console market like the one on Wii; I'm optimistic that it'll work out well for them, like it did when they put Monster Hunter on PSP.

the entire fanbase is on the playstation family

The concept of "PlayStation Family" has never existed except in the world of Sony PR. Playing MHP on PSP doesn't really mean that someone will prefer to play MH Home Edition on a PS3, especially since the vast majority of those PSPs were purchased solely to play MHP.

On another point, if it's so great, then why is everyone using the GC controller to play Smash Bros?

Well, "I already have four WaveBirds from the GameCube days but I'd have to drop $20 a piece on four Classics" is probably the answer for a lot of people. :lol

What in gods name are you talking about Uncharted sold its million, it went black. Ratchet shipped a million, Heavenly sword sold a million.

These games squeaked over one million games sold worldwide including bundle sales. "Bomb," with its connotations of massive and irreparable financial harm, is not really appropriate, but none of them is really a sales success either -- probably the system's biggest sales success to date is its continued ability to put up numbers on multiplatform games that make the porting well worthwhile, then as of next month it'll be MGS4.

The core gamer market moved from the PS2 to the 360 yet the PS2 level numbers didn't move from the PS2 to 360...

This shouldn't have actually been a huge surprise to anyone who followed PS2 sales closely. The core gamers made up probably around 20-30% of PS2 owners but produced about 60-70% of software sales.

 

[dammitmattt]

overall software dollar rates are bigger than ever before. Outside of key franchises and titles, unit rates are pretty down, and even on the big titles (Halo 3, GTAIV, etc) unit rates are looking like they will end up down from last gen's final iterations as well. It should also be noted that as the "hardcore gamer's" system of choice, the 360 is selling woefully under last gen's "hardcore gamer's" system of choice. The core gamer market moved from the PS2 to the 360 yet the PS2 level numbers didn't move from the PS2 to 360... It's really nice to compare the 360 to XBox, but XBox's 3rd party numbers were already atrophied last gen compared to the PS2's anyway up until near the end of the generation.

it may seem like apples to oranges comparing 360 to PS2, but no more apples to oranges than comparing 360 to XBox. The bottom line is when looking at total 3rd party unit sales from last gen across all platforms and total third party unit sales across all platforms, unit sales are down, propped up by an average of 20% higher retail costs.

You are making generalities with nothing to back them up while ignoring that the sales figures from last gen were lifetime numbers on much larger userbases. We are not even halfway into this generation and games are breaking records left and right. Since you refuse to bring any kind of evidence to back yourself up, I will.

Call of Duty 4 has almost passed Halo 2, and it's still going strong.
After another year of sales, Halo 3 should pass Halo 2, and Halo 3 still has a smaller user base to sell to.
Guitar Hero 3 absolutely destroyed GH1 and GH2.
Madden 06-08 are the top-selling entries in the series.
GTA4 is already at 4.2 million in 33 days. Lifetimes for the other GTAs were 9.4 (SA), 7.3 (VC), and 6.2 (3). GTA4 is selling to a MUCH smaller user base and despite that, it should catch up to GTA3 by Christmas this year.

Aside from Halo and COD, other good shooters (BioShock, Vegas 2, Army of Two, Gears, etc.) are selling better than ever before. RPGs (Oblivion, Mass Effect) are selling better than ever before. Music games are selling better than ever before, often at outrageous prices.

Core games are doing just fine, thank you very much.

I just did, sorry. I think the two analog feel better and are more sensitive. Same with the analog shoulder buttons (I love the squishy feel), and d-pad is the best. It's as if Apple decided to make a controller.

edit: off-topic

Question - have you tried to play an FPS with a classic controller? I tried Mario 64 with it and it just did not feel right at all. It's still a good 2D controller, though!

 

[harSon]

Did we ever get a number for Haze?

 

[Pureauthor]

This shouldn't have actually been a huge surprise to anyone who followed PS2 sales closely. The core gamers made up probably around 20-30% of PS2 owners but produced about 60-70% of software sales.

20-30 million core gamers.

Riiiiiiiiiigggghhht.

 

[borghe]

This shouldn't have actually been a huge surprise to anyone who followed PS2 sales closely. The core gamers made up probably around 20-30% of PS2 owners but produced about 60-70% of software sales.

Sorry, I was talking to software unit sales. Everyone clamors that 360 is so much further ahead of XBox at the same point last gen in terms of units sales on hardware and software... yet everyone hushes up when it's mentioned that both PS3 and 360 are well below hardware and software until sales of PS2 and XBox combined and that each is behind their respective place last gen as well. This is what I was referring to when I said the core gamer market is shrinking. Not disappearing, but definitely shrinking.

You are making generalities with nothing to back them up while ignoring that the sales figures from last gen were lifetime numbers on much larger userbases. We are not even halfway into this generation and games are breaking records left and right. Since you refuse to bring any kind of evidence to back yourself up, I will.

Call of Duty 4 has almost passed Halo 2, and it's still going strong.
After another year of sales, Halo 3 should pass Halo 2, and Halo 3 still has a smaller user base to sell to.
Guitar Hero 3 absolutely destroyed GH1 and GH2.
Madden 06-08 are the top-selling entries in the series.
GTA4 is already at 4.2 million in 33 days. Lifetimes for the other GTAs were 9.4 (SA), 7.3 (VC), and 6.2 (3). GTA4 is selling to a MUCH smaller user base and despite that, it should catch up to GTA3 by Christmas this year.

I was not referring to lifetime numbers. I was referring to similar points in last gen's cycle while comparing places, not systems.

As to your points:
COD was already acknowledged
Halo3 will likely not pass Halo2. Used sales have already hit it and as with most games used sales will eventually take over.
Madden sales have overall been flat for quite a while and sells to a built in audience give or take. it's sales (good or bad) are mostly irrelevant.
GTA4 is selling to an immensely larger user base than GTA3 did, unless you are implying that thePS2 had an installed base of 15M in the US by fall of 2001. :\ And it iwll likely not catch up to VC and definitely not SA.

as mentioned, unit sales overall are down in the core market this gen compared to the same time frame last gen. sales on PS2 were overall higher in unit sales than 360, and XBox sales were much higher than PS3 sales. Hardware units are up, but overall software units aren't even up the 20% that the games themselves cost, not to mention greatest hits/platinum hits are 100% more ($40 compared to $20). No, those price increases have NOTHING to do with dollar sales being up. :\

Yeah, I'm pretty much done on this line of thought.

 

[dammitmattt]

Sorry, I was talking to software unit sales. Everyone clamors that 360 is so much further ahead of XBox at the same point last gen in terms of units sales on hardware and software... yet everyone hushes up when it's mentioned that both PS3 and 360 are well below hardware and software until sales of PS2 and XBox combined and that each is behind their respective place last gen as well. This is what I was referring to when I said the core gamer market is shrinking. Not disappearing, but definitely shrinking.

No, you said that "core games are dying hard outside of notable franchises" and I am still waiting for some evidence to back up this claim.

 

[radjago]

Holy shit. The biggest shock in this thread is that Ironman PS2 number. Inasne.

You're shocked that a summer movie blockbuster game tie-in sells 130K? That's not that much.

 

[borghe]

No, you said that "core games are dying hard outside of notable franchises" and I am still waiting for some evidence to back up this claim.

posted above. enjoy.

 

[dammitmattt]

Sorry, I was talking to software unit sales. Everyone clamors that 360 is so much further ahead of XBox at the same point last gen in terms of units sales on hardware and software... yet everyone hushes up when it's mentioned that both PS3 and 360 are well below hardware and software until sales of PS2 and XBox combined and that each is behind their respective place last gen as well. This is what I was referring to when I said the core gamer market is shrinking. Not disappearing, but definitely shrinking.

Yeah, because there are core gamers on the Wii that are buying a ton of software. Did you forget about them? How could you when you are the perfect example of one!

I was not referring to lifetime numbers. I was referring to similar points in last gen's cycle while comparing places, not systems.

So provide some numbers.

As to your points:
COD was already acknowledged
Halo3 will likely not pass Halo2. Used sales have already hit it and as with most games used sales will eventually take over.
Madden sales have overall been flat for quite a while and sells to a built in audience give or take. it's sales (good or bad) are mostly irrelevant.
GTA4 is selling to an immensely larger user base than GTA3 did, unless you are implying that thePS2 had an installed base of 15M in the US by fall of 2001. :\ And it iwll likely not catch up to VC and definitely not SA.

Halo 3 hasn't been reduced to a budget price yet, where it will continue to sell to new console owners. Only 15-20% of the games retail market has used games. Are you saying that Wal-Mart, Best Buy, etc. will not sell any more Halo 3? It's one of the tentpole games of the system.

Madden has most definitely not been flat:
Madden 04 - ??? but less than 5.9M
Madden 05 - 6.1M
Madden 06 - 6.65M
Madden 07 - 7.7M
Madden 08 - 6.6M

It was a steady uphill climb since at least 04 until 08, when it declined slightly but still is much higher than 04.

GTA4 will NEVER have the userbase that the PS2 GTAs had to sell to, but it's attach rate is significantly higher this time around and it WILL at least catch GTA3.

as mentioned, unit sales overall are down in the core market this gen compared to the same time frame last gen. sales on PS2 were overall higher in unit sales than 360, and XBox sales were much higher than PS3 sales. Hardware units are up, but overall software units aren't even up the 20% that the games themselves cost, not to mention greatest hits/platinum hits are 100% more ($40 compared to $20). No, those price increases have NOTHING to do with dollar sales being up. :\

Yeah, I'm pretty much done on this line of thought.

I'm not sure how you're calculating what the core market is. You're only using the PS2, which was just as casual as the Wii. It's not a fair comparison. The core market encompasses all three consoles.

And I think it's damn impressive that the overall units (software+hardware) have trended up over last generation at much higher prices.

 

[Kevtones]

Any numbers for Boom Blox??

 

[charlequin]

20-30 million core gamers.

Riiiiiiiiiigggghhht.

Depends on how narrow your definition of "core gamers" is. If you put the dividing line at people who consider videogaming their primary hobby, post on message boards, etc. it's probably closer to 1/10th that. If you put it as I am wont to do, at the border between people who identify video gaming as a hobby (who care about it enough to, say, get into LiveJournal arguments with their friends about it or have a few series they absolutely love and buy day one) and those who treat video gaming the way most people treat television, it's probably much closer to that figure worldwide.

(Even so, maybe it's a bit of an exaggeration and something like 10-20% would be a better figure.)

 

[Vinci]

I'm trying to think which scenario is more likely:

(1) Nintendo is watching the 3rd parties say that 'Quality games won't sell on the Wii' and thus avoid it like the plague, whether those are their actual reasons or not;

- or -

(2) Nintendo is waiting for 3rd parties to get their shit together, realize the industry has changed and that next generation all their generational franchises will mean jack shit, and put some quality stuff on the thing.

In one scenario (#1), Nintendo has to hire extra bean counters to calculate how much money is being left on the table for them to gobble up, damn near singlehandedly no less, and the market changes to their benefit even more for next gen. In scenario #2, they will achieve absolute domination to an untold level for any games-only console and any company would be hard-pressed to compete with it, even after the other two companies release their next systems. Nintendo would be able to take their time before killing the Wii - and they're the only ones who can.

In either case, I think the result is clear:

Iwata: (laughs)
Miyamoto: (laughs)