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[Ash Sparrow]

I predict a 100% success rate in my predictions.

Oh, and thread soundtrack. Believe™ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_IkUysQASQ

Thats awesome

 

[Darkman M]

I think we all know how the hardware numbers will play out, the software numbers are way more exciting this month.

Yeah Software will be the most interesting thing this month for sure.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I asked at 4:30e so the market was closed.

1:23 is how it's timestamped here (4:23). But whatever! It's out now!

 

[chespace]

I think we all know how the hardware numbers will play out, the software numbers are way more exciting this month.

Basically, yeah.

I have my handful of games I loved this fall and I want to see them do amazing numbers.

A few press releases have already told me they have done amazing numbers. Now I just want to see it carved into NPD history.

One thing I was talking to Luke about earlier was the fact that NPD is only half of retail, right? Isn't it kind of scary that they're filling in the blanks with guesstimates to present a set of data that a lot of people here, not to mention investors and the market, take as gospel?

 

[schuelma]

One thing I was talking to Luke about earlier was the fact that NPD is only half of retail, right? Isn't it kind of scary that they're filling in the blanks with guesstimates to present a set of data that a lot of people here, not to mention investors and the market, take as gospel?

I'm not a stats guy, but I'm pretty sure 60% is more than enough to make accurate projections.

 

[Psychotext]

One thing I was talking to Luke about earlier was the fact that NPD is only half of retail, right? Isn't it kind of scary that they're filling in the blanks with guesstimates to present a set of data that a lot of people here, not to mention investors and the market, take as gospel?

You'd be amazed at how accurate estimates can be when you have 50% of the data and enough historical trending to analyse.

 

[sphinx]

It's currently 3:43 PM CST or 4:43 PM CST.

I don't follow, sorry.

Spoiler

Damn american times, it's so complicated.

As I understand it, the data is released to subscribers at 4:30- but it isn't made public until 6:30. But lately Cassassassassasssamina has been hinting at the numbers between 4:30 and 6:30.

So, the numbers could arrive anytime from now? :O

thrilling...

 

[GhaleonEB]

I'm not a stats guy, but I'm pretty sure 60% is more than enough to make accurate projections.

Yup. And the remaining ~40% is not blind guessing, they've got market share data on the major contributors, etc. There's a margin of error, maybe even a sizable one, but it's the best we've got. It's this or scour Amazon charts.

 

[schuelma]

So, the numbers could arrive anytime from now? :O

thrilling...

Not likely. The best you will get until 6:30 are potentially hints from Matt C. at IGN

 

[Dot50Cal]

So, the numbers could arrive anytime from now? :O

thrilling...

NPD Release: December 13th @ 4:00 p.m. EST (thread posted around 6:30 p.m. EST)

You have 1 hour, 40 minutes til 6:30PM EST.

 

[Loudninja]

Mindlog what were your predictions?

 

[MiamiWesker]

We need a new epic November 2007 NPD movie trailer.

 

[Zzoram]

Basically, yeah.

I have my handful of games I loved this fall and I want to see them do amazing numbers.

A few press releases have already told me they have done amazing numbers. Now I just want to see it carved into NPD history.

One thing I was talking to Luke about earlier was the fact that NPD is only half of retail, right? Isn't it kind of scary that they're filling in the blanks with guesstimates to present a set of data that a lot of people here, not to mention investors and the market, take as gospel?

Considering that television ratings are determined by only 5000 households across the USA, I'd say 60% retailer participation (now including Amazon.com) is pretty good for accurate modeling.

 

[apujanata]

Yup. And the remaining ~40% is not blind guessing, they've got market share data on the major contributors, etc. There's a margin of error, maybe even a sizable one, but it's the best we've got. It's this or scour Amazon charts.

you forgot to mentioned the "you-know-who" website, that are pulling sales # from their ass (a lot of time), and are quoted a lot by the media (who didn't know better).

 

[suicideeyes]

Considering that television ratings are determined by only 5000 households across the USA, I'd say 60% retailer participation (now including Amazon.com) is pretty good for accurate modeling.

exactly. nielsen is roughly 5100 projected to over 110 million.

comparatively 60% seems incredibly strong.

 

[Oblivion]

November NPD will be goty.

 

[Mindlog]

Mindlog what were your predictions?

100% accurate.

I Believe™

I can only confirm my accuracy... after the numbers are posted of course.

 

[chespace]

So do these numbers include the other 40% that they're making a guess on, or just the numbers that they know for sure? I assume it's the former.

 

[sphinx]

Not likely. The best you will get until 6:30 are potentially hints from Matt C. at IGN

Meh, I'll get some work done in the meantime and come back to the already 10 page long allmighty thread of meltdowns, tears, insanity and bans.

 

[Xisiqomelir]

One thing I was talking to Luke about earlier was the fact that NPD is only half of retail, right? Isn't it kind of scary that they're filling in the blanks with guesstimates to present a set of data that a lot of people here, not to mention investors and the market, take as gospel?

 

[GhaleonEB]

you forgot to mentioned the "you-know-who" website, that are pulling sales # from their ass (a lot of time), and are quoted a lot by the media (who didn't know better).

I'd rather scour Amazon charts.

And Che, NPD extrapolates to cover the entire market.

 

[sphinx]

November NPD will be goty.

you mean the wii version of it, right? :lol :lol

 

[Zzoram]

So do these numbers include the other 40% that they're making a guess on, or just the numbers that they know for sure? I assume it's the former.

They know the 60% for sure, and based on history, demographics of people shopping the retailers not included and such they extrapolate the rest.

 

[Oblivion]

So do these numbers include the other 40% that they're making a guess on, or just the numbers that they know for sure? I assume it's the former.

I'm pretty sure the estimations are included as well.

 

[suicideeyes]

I'd rather scour Amazon charts.

And Che, NPD extrapolates to cover the entire market.

exactly, like television, it's based on the 60% but projected to what the 100% should be.

 

[chespace]

I'd rather scour Amazon charts.

And Che, NPD extrapolates to cover the entire market.

I would love to see what Target, Walmart, and Best Buy numbers actually are. Seems like more of a mass market measure.

 

[Provider]

Meh, I'll get some work done in the meantime and come back to the already 10 page long allmighty thread of meltdowns, tears, insanity and bans.

Me too :'(, I have (to teach) 2 classes :'(

 

[AstroLad]

FWIW, MS has said that NPD comes frighteningly close to their own internal figures. It's not like NPD is just sitting back, getting some random data, and "guessing" the rest without any basis. These kinds of calculations are a very large part of what they do, and they are very good at it.

 

[Loudninja]

FWIW, MS has said that NPD comes frighteningly close to their own internal figures.

And those are?

 

[sphinx]

Me too :'(, I have (to teach) 2 classes :'(

wow, me too, what a coincidence. fFrom 6:00 PM til 8:00 I have to teach. :lol :lol

anyway, once the thread is ripe around 9:30, it will be better than playing games, actually.

 

[AstroLad]

And those are?

tenmillions. i dunno man, and I don't feel like hunting for the thread.

 

[Zzoram]

I would love to see what Target, Walmart, and Best Buy numbers actually are. Seems like more of a mass market measure.

They used to have Walmart numbers long ago, so they know roughly how the Walmart demographic used to buy things and what appealed to them. I'm sure that factors into their extrapolation of current Walmart sales.

 

[Randy Lanzarote]

For anyone interested, perhaps you are anxiously sat at your desk waiting 11.30PM GMT like I am, or you are a new member to gaf and you think NPD stands for National Piledriving Day, then the chaps at Gamerscore did a podcast recently on NPD numbers;

http://gamerscoreblog.com/team/archive/2007/11/30/555016.aspx

 

[GhaleonEB]

And those are?

Internal? We get glipses such as the 310k for the week of Black Friday.

 

[The Innocent X]

tucked up in bed, e-reader in one hand, laptop in the other. Lets hope we get a juicy hint or two

 

[MaX_PL]

where are these numbers?

 

[Loudninja]

Internal? We get glipses such as the 310k for the week of Black Friday.

Yeah I know those

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

And those are?

I think he's speaking generally, in response to the current Che-related discussion, not about today specifically.

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

I think we all know how the hardware numbers will play out, the software numbers are way more exciting this month.

Agreed, but some surprises could come out.

Spoiler

A-la-Widmer-Schlumpf

:lol

 

[Loudninja]

I think he's speaking generally, in response to the current Che-related discussion, not about today specifically.

Oh ok

 

[AstroLad]

I think he's speaking generally, in response to the current Che-related discussion, not about today specifically.

Right. There was a pretty good article about this precise issue, but like I alluded to above I don't remember the thread it was buried in. The reasonable conclusion is: TRUST NPD.

 

[Borys]

Meh, 1 hour left, it's 23:00 here in Poland, I'm going to sleep.

Best wishes go to... Ghaleon, Tieno and Agent Icebreezy, I was annoying this week, hope you guys don't mind and celebrate those 700K 360 sold with smile.

 

[Provider]

wow, me too, what a coincidence. fFrom 6:00 PM til 8:00 I have to teach. :lol :lol

anyway, once the thread is ripe around 9:30, it will be better than playing games, actually.

HAhaHaHah what a coincidence. Well gtg I hope I'll come back to meltdowns!!

 

[Zzoram]

Also, the Walmart and Target demographics I assume would be more price sensitive, and would therefore likely have sales better correlated to price.

 

[The Innocent X]

juicy hint in the preview thread. GO!

 

[pr0cs]

FWIW, MS has said that NPD comes frighteningly close to their own internal figures. It's not like NPD is just sitting back, getting some random data, and "guessing" the rest without any basis. These kinds of calculations are a very large part of what they do, and they are very good at it.

Considering how much they charge for the data I'd be surprised if the numbers weren't extremely accurate.

 

[davepoobond]

[360] 900k
[GBA] 200k
[NDS] 1300k
[PS2] 900k
[PS3] 600k
[PSP] 880k
[WII] 950k


PlayStation 2 496K
PlayStation 3 466K
PSP 567K
Xbox 360 770K
Wii 981K
Nintendo DS 1.53 million



360 - off by 130k
DS - off by 200k
PS2 - off by 404k
PS3 - off by 134k
PSP - off by 313k
Wii - off by 31k




ps2/psp killed me. ds was also way more than i ever could have expected. I nailed Wii though. i KNEW it would be a cut under 1 million.

 

[apujanata]

[NDS] 1250K : 280K off
[Wii] 1000K : 19K off
[PSP] 650K : 83K off
[360] 580K : 190K off (I'm dead)
[PS2] 320K : 176K off (another dead)
[PS3] 300K : 247K off (worse of the bunch)
[GBA] 120K : no result yet.

Total : 995K off.
I'm doing really, really bad this month

360 - off by 130k
DS - off by 200k
PS2 - off by 404k
PS3 - off by 134k
PSP - off by 313k
Wii - off by 31k

ps2/psp killed me. ds was also way more than i ever could have expected. I nailed Wii though. i KNEW it would be a cut under 1 million.

Your 1,212K off is a little bit worse than me. We are in good company.

 

[argon]

Here's what I have... I haven't doublechecked my numbers so they could be wrong, though.

	NeoGAF	Pachter	TSE	argon	NPD
NDS	1254	1350	1300	1280	1530
Wii	1020	950	1060	1030	981
X360	747	750	728	720	770
PSP	560	650	468	600	567
PS2	461	485		550	496
PS3	414	420	410	400	466

Diff	432	371		502	
Diff*	397	360	506	448	

* = PS2 not included (for comparison with theSimExchange)

Looks like Pachter owned us this month... and I got beaten by the aggregate =(

 

[Wii-za]

Prediction
[DS] 1400K
[Wii] 1250K
[360] 700K
[PSP] 600K
[PS3] 300K
[PS2] 450K
[GBA] 200K

NPD
Nintendo DS 1.53 million
Wii 981K
Xbox 360 770K
PSP 567K
PlayStation 3 466K
PlayStation 2 496K

Off by
DS - 130k
Wii - 269k
360 - 70k
PSP - 33k
PS3 - 166k
PS2 - 46k

Mmmm...interesting...

Being my first time I think I was pretty close...sans the Wii shortage ='(

What do you think guys?