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[h0l211]

http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=11555

As part of his preview for October's NPD video game sales, which debut next Thursday, Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter has forecast overall revenues to be up 10% to $401 million, as the console transition continues to run smooth.

...

Pachter revealed that he expects October sales to be driven by new releases Vivendi’s Scarface: The World is Yours (PS2, Xbox, PSP, PC), Midway’s Mortal Kombat: Armageddon (PS2, Xbox), and Ubisoft’s Splinter Cell Double Agent (360, PS2, Xbox, GC, PC) along with continued strong sales of LucasArts’ Lego Star Wars II: The Original Trilogy and Nintendo’s Pokemon Mystery Dungeon.

The analyst noted that, due to the timing of the NPD retail calendar, three major October releases (Take-Two’s GTA: Vice City Stories (PSP), Square Enix’s Final Fantasy XII (PS2), and Electronic Arts’ Need for Speed Carbon (360, PS2, Xbox, PC, PSP, GBA, DS, GC), will fall outside the NPD October reporting month (October 1 – October 28). Thus, it was commented: "We believe that this will limit growth this month, but should drive significant growth next month."


...

Through September, NPD data shows that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.7 million units. Wedbush expects monthly sales of 250,000 units in October, 750,000 million units in November, and between 1.5 – 2 million units in December. Wedbush comments: "Sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 falls well short of demand, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3."

 

[GhaleonEB]

Through September, NPD data shows that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.7 million units. Wedbush expects monthly sales of 250,000 units in October, 750,000 million units in November, and between 1.5 – 2 million units in December. Wedbush comments: "Sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 falls well short of demand, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3."

Interesting. That's at the high-end of other analysts expectations as well.

 

[thestopsign]

Interesting. That's at the high-end of other analysts expectations as well.

I'm expecting closer to 500,000 in November, and 1,100,000 to 1,250,000 million in December. It should do well, but not that well.

 

[GhaleonEB]

I'm expecting closer to 500,000 in November, and 1,100,000 to 1,250,000 million in December. It should do well, but not that well.

Yeah, the 360 underperformed expectations all year, with analysts only getting the past few months right when they adjusted down. The 250k in October sounds right, but that's why the Nov/Dec sound so out of whack.

 

[valkillmore]

I'm expecting closer to 500,000 in November, and 1,100,000 to 1,250,000 million in December. It should do well, but not that well.

Considering there are reports that PS3 production targets aren't being met, I'd say it has a chance at the higher figure.

Spoiler

I have no idea what I'm talking about

 

[qirex]

Considering there are reports that PS3 production targets aren't being met, I'd say it has a chance at the higher figure.

Spoiler

I have no idea what I'm talking about

Is there any evidence that PS3 shortages will necessarily translate to more 360 sales? I'd assume that the bulk of people wanting a PS3 will end up buying either other consumer electronics or PS2 games.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Is there any evidence that PS3 shortages will necessarily translate to more 360 sales? I'd assume that the bulk of people wanting a PS3 will end up buying either other consumer electronics or PS2 games.

has a shortage of one system ever led to sales of another? serious question.

 

[HyperionX]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=123216

Then:

Through August, NPD data shows that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.4 million units, and we expect monthly sales of 250,000 units in September. The Xbox 360 is now readily available, we expect Microsoft to sell approximately 400,000 hardware units in October, between 750,000 – 1 million units in November, and between 1.5 – 2 million units December. Sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 falls well short of demand, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3.

Now:

Through September, NPD data shows that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.7 million units. Wedbush expects monthly sales of 250,000 units in October, 750,000 million units in November, and between 1.5 – 2 million units in December. Wedbush comments: "Sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 falls well short of demand, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3."

:lol

I predict another downward prediction next month.

 

[BorkBork]

Interesting. That's at the high-end of other analysts expectations as well.

Looks like they'll hit that billion mark yet!

 

[pcostabel]

Through September, NPD data shows that Xbox 360 hardware sales in the U.S. were 2.7 million units. Wedbush expects monthly sales of 250,000 units in October, 750,000 million units in November, and between 1.5 – 2 million units in December. Wedbush comments: "Sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 falls well short of demand, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3."

750 billion gamers!!!

 

[trancejeremy]

has a shortage of one system ever led to sales of another? serious question.

Heh, if that were the case, you'd think PSP sales in Japan would be much higher, due to the DS shortages.

But his thing about parents buying kids a 360 instead of a PS3 for X-mas might be true, but I would think parents would be buying Wiis instead of a 360

 

[typhonsentra]

It's good to know ahead of time what dates the sales cover.... asking that was actually my reason for entering this topic.

 

[PS2 KID]

750 billion gamers!!!

They've exceeded their expectations 750 times over.

 

[RaijinFY]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=123216

Then:


Now:


:lol

I predict another downward prediction next month.

Wow, indeed.

 

[sonycowboy]

Wedbush expects monthly sales of 250,000 units in October,[/b] 750,000 million units in November, and between 1.5 – 2 million units in December. Wedbush comments: "Sell through of Xbox 360 hardware could be higher if the supply situation for the PS3 falls well short of demand, with many holiday gift givers likely substituting purchases of the 360 in place of the PS3."

Uhhh...

Didn't he predict 400k for October last month? That's a pretty MASSIVE sales prediction for December as well.

"We expect it to sell as much in December as it has all year"

EDIT: Beaten! Damn.

 

[Square2005]

Uhhh...

Didn't he predict 400k for October last month? That's a pretty MASSIVE sales prediction for December as well.

"We expect it to sell as much in December as it has all year"

EDIT: Beaten! Damn.

Really!... I said awhile back 400k was crazy for October when that prediction came out but everyone said it'll happen 'cos so many begin their Christmas shopping in October!!:lol

October is almost always down MoM, b/c it's 4 weeks while Sept. is five, and no one begins X-mas shopping in October...

BTW 250k still seems high to me for Oct. It'll do closer to 200k not much more, unless Microsoft's usual seasonal 2 free game givaway promo began last month.

 

[JJConrad]

If any system has shown that it can sell 750,000,000,000 units in a month, it's the 360!!

Really!... I said awhile back 400k was crazy for October when that prediction came out but everyone said it'll happen 'cos so many begin their Christmas shopping in October!!:lol

October is almost always down MoM, b/c it's 4 weeks while Sept. is five, and no one begins X-mas shopping in October...

BTW 250k still seems high to me for Oct. It'll do closer to 200k not much more, unless Microsoft's usual seasonal 2 free game givaway promo began last month.

Last month was fun. I can't wait this month!

 

[Striek]

Pachter was just revising what was obviously an insane prediction for the X360 last month for October, and next month he'll revise November down, and in January he'll revise predictions for December down.

*shrug*

He is usually off by a wide margin on monthly software sales too.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Really!... I said awhile back 400k was crazy for October when that prediction came out but everyone said it'll happen 'cos so many begin their Christmas shopping in October!!:lol

October is almost always down MoM, b/c it's 4 weeks while Sept. is five, and no one begins X-mas shopping in October...

BTW 250k still seems high to me for Oct. It'll do closer to 200k not much more, unless Microsoft's usual seasonal 2 free game givaway promo began last month.

I don't recall that. I recall lots of people ridiculing the prediction from the start. 250k is sane, 400k batshit. Glad to see he came down to earth.

In October, anyways.

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

Microsoft better have enough supply or they won't be taking advantage of any of Sony's misfortunes.

 

[Striek]

Hmm, with their prediction of 10M 'sold' by 2007 theres no worries there.

Although they did only 'manage' to ship a rather palty 0.9M in the last quarter.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Hmm, with their prediction of 10M 'sold' by 2007 theres no worries there.

Although they did only 'manage' to ship a rather palty 0.9M in the last quarter.

As someone pointed out in that thread, MS's inventory went from $1 billion to $2.5 billion last quarter as well. Some probably Zunes stocked up, but most of that increase is likely 360's ready for the holidays.

 

[Mrbob]

X360 overestimated all year. This is no different.

205K October (Nothing in October will change its roughly 50K a week average)
550K November
750K December

 

[GhaleonEB]

X360 overestimated all year. This is no different.

205K October
550K November
750K December

I agree it's underperformed all year, but it HAS followed the seasonal swings very closely. No reason to expect it not to during the holidays as well. Even with low-end seasonality, those numbers are too low.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Is 360 still having months that match the Xbox 1, which was only $199 at this point?

 

[GhaleonEB]

Is 360 still having months that match the Xbox 1, which was only $199 at this point?

	Xbox		360
January	 127,939 	-	 249,000 
February	 139,123 	-	 161,000 
March	 136,388 	-	 192,000 
April	 78,142 	-	 295,381 
May	 228,914 	-	 220,877 
June	 264,618 	-	 277,000 
July	 154,204 	-	 206,000 
August	 137,277 	-	 204,000 
September	 172,748 	-	259,458
October	 239,085 	-	
November	 468,000 	-	
December	 1,033,000

360 is roasting the XBox on montly comparables. October will be closer, though.

 

[Striek]

Thinking it through, depending on how much they ship to NA, they may even be able to create a highly lucrative shortage, selling near to demand but still making the X360 scarce. PR victory with little lost sales = win.

As of the end of Sep., they were only at +-600k surplus for NA, and in the next three months they will sell ~2-3M (probably ~2.5M). If they only ship half of their stock of 4M to NA...

*shrug*

Its looking much rosier than even two months ago for the X360, and I'm sure I have some statements that'll come back to bite me in the ass from before its slide into mediocrity was halted.

As someone pointed out in that thread, MS's inventory went from $1 billion to $2.5 billion last quarter as well. Some probably Zunes stocked up, but most of that increase is likely 360's ready for the holidays.

Oh yeah, thats why I had ' ' around manage. I think they're stockpiling, although I guess I don't understand the reason behind why. Shipping now or shipping later, I'm sure retailers would take stock as they make it at this point.

PR victory for the fourth quarter, maybe.

 

[jett]

The 360 is so not going to sell those numbers in December. That's PS2 territory.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Next thursday eh? Then I better start mentioning ToA ...

Btw, did I miss the prediction thread? :?

 

[quetz67]

A console mostly depending on the competition not being available in sufficient numbers is a failure to me

 

[mood]

A console mostly depending on the competition not being available in sufficient numbers is a failure to me

It would seem like a Sony failure to me if people swap PS3s for 360s.

 

[davepoobond]

Heh, if that were the case, you'd think PSP sales in Japan would be much higher, due to the DS shortages.

or maybe they're at their current levels because of them in the first place!!

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=123216

Then:


Now:


:lol

I predict another downward prediction next month.

Agree. The 360 will sell well this holiday, but not as well as analysts think. And no way the X360 will sell more then 1.2-1.3 millions in December.

 

[hadareud]

A console mostly depending on the competition not being available in sufficient numbers is a failure to me

this statement is a real surprise coming from you

 

[chadums90]

Don't these predictions usually amount to no more than dog shit on the bottom of my shoe?

 

[Ynos Yrros]

One question, doesn't NPD take data from like 50 retailers, and then multiply it to get the numbers? That's hardly accurate if you ask me. I think that gaf should lay off the statistics .

Ok, I'll play that game:

October: 207 k
November: 380k
December: 1.2 mln

 

[jimbo]

These Wedbush prediction threads suck. I want the real numbers. And honestly, the real fun won't start until next month. That's when the s*** really starts hitting the fan. Let's just skip straight to November NPD.

 

[Qwerty710710]

X360 overestimated all year. This is no different.

205K October (Nothing in October will change its roughly 50K a week average)
550K November
750K December

I can't wait until you eat your crow in January.

Here's mine

245K October
650K November
1.4M December

 

[RaijinFY]

October: 270k
November: 550k
December: 1.3M

 

[Elios83]

Wow I can't believe how fast time flies,it's like yesterday was E3 and now we're waiting for the datas of the last month with Xbox360 as the only next gen console in the US market.
As for Pachter's numbers I think is overstimating Xbox360 success,imo it will be difficult for MS to sell more than 1 million units in December.

 

[donny2112]

Btw, did I miss the prediction thread? :?

Wedbush Predictions? Check.
"NPD" in title? Check.

I think this is it, even though no one has done predictions, yet.

Predictions

NDS - 340K
PS2 - 264K
360 - 208K
GBA - 180K
PSP - 136K
GCN - 40K
XBX - 7K

 

[KeithFranklin]

Anyone have 2004 and 2005 September and October numbers. If I recall correctly October always (Even though 4 week month) surpasses September numbers.

 

[Galactic Fork]

Might as well play too.

Predictions:

NDS - 300K
PS2 - 245K
360 - 215K
PSP - 160K
GBA - 160K
GCN - 35K
XBX - 5K

 

[donny2112]

Anyone have 2004 and 2005 September and October numbers.

Month	PS2	XBX	GCN	GBA	NDS	PSP

Sep-04	253,295	265,067	114,789	524,767
Oct-04	380,540	215,845	108,832	443,276

Sep-05	268,000	124,000	108,000	185,000	168,000	146,000
Oct-05	252,000	136,000	110,000	208,000	136,000	132,000

Is the [ code] function fixed, now?

 

[hadareud]

Predictions:

NDS 360k
360 245k
ps2 260k
psp 145k
gba 165k
gc 45k
xbox 6k

 

[Luisito]

My Predition

X360
October: 290K
November: 900K
December: 1.5 Million

 

[Jokeropia]

Predictions:

NDS: 340k
PS2: 275k
X360: 220k
GBA: 160k
PSP: 140k
GC 36k
Xbox: 5k

 

[Ash Sparrow]

Are numbers due this thursday?

 

[GhaleonEB]

Are numbers due this thursday?

As part of his preview for October's NPD video game sales, which debut next Thursday, Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter has forecast overall revenues to be up 10% to $401 million, as the console transition continues to run smooth.

Yes.

And guys, don't turn this into the sales prediction thread. Let SC make a proper one.

 

[donny2112]

And guys, don't turn this into the sales prediction thread. Let SC make a proper one.

If he makes a proper one, then I'll post mine again there. However, he is very hit-and-miss about whether he makes a prediction thread, so this may be all there is this month.