PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
donny2112 said:
That would be ethel.
(on calling FF4r a flop)
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Media Create Sales 1/14 - 1/20 2008
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
That would be ethel.
(on calling FF4r a flop)
Cheesemeister
Member
PantherLotus said:Also, because everyone including myself seems to be swingin from Cheesy's balls tonight, I feel the need to tear him down a notch just so he knows that he's not perfect: I never see him give really thorough analysis of data, nor opinions, nor predictions. I can say this because I'm mostly the same way, if a little more gabby and chart-happy. I'd like to see you post more in other threads cheese! Let's hear what you're thinkin, not just what your macros can spit out.
Some analysis along the lines of what JJS does could easily be incorporated into the program. What do you want me to analyze exactly? There's a lot to go over. And so it seems I've finally been called out on predictions. Alright, I can play that game, too. Starting with the 2008 NPD numbers.
If you don't think I'm posting in any other threads, please see my post history.
yankeeforever2
Member
1/31 same day as DMC4.*Guaraná said:
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
reilo said:
and you KNOW i was half deep in a wiki article trying to confirm that it was swiss, so as not to be too too schmucky when proven incorrect.
cheese: i was just fuckin with ya. i think we just populate different threads most of the time.
Okay, let's take an historical looksie.
N64 Smash Bros. 183K .. 112K .. 75K ... 1.60 million (20010624)
GCN SSBM 357K .. 63K .. 48K ... 1.22 million (20030105)
PS2 DMC1 353K .. 94K .. 35K ... 555K (20011230)
PS2 DMC2 309K .. 55K .. 25K ... 457K (20031228)
PS3 DMC3 183K .. 43K .. 19K ... 281K (20051225)
If DMC4 were coming out for the PS2, I'd predict ~150K for the first week based on the decline with each release, but it's coming out for the PS3
.
My SSBB prediction is just based on blind hope, because the historical evidence sure doesn't give any reason to be optimistic about a big first week.
It'll hopefully be in Famitsu's Top 30 for last week. Last numbers were ~105K at the end of November.
N64 Smash Bros. 183K .. 112K .. 75K ... 1.60 million (20010624)
GCN SSBM 357K .. 63K .. 48K ... 1.22 million (20030105)
PS2 DMC1 353K .. 94K .. 35K ... 555K (20011230)
PS2 DMC2 309K .. 55K .. 25K ... 457K (20031228)
PS3 DMC3 183K .. 43K .. 19K ... 281K (20051225)
If DMC4 were coming out for the PS2, I'd predict ~150K for the first week based on the decline with each release, but it's coming out for the PS3
and 360
My SSBB prediction is just based on blind hope, because the historical evidence sure doesn't give any reason to be optimistic about a big first week.
Lightning said:
It'll hopefully be in Famitsu's Top 30 for last week. Last numbers were ~105K at the end of November.
norinrad21
Banned
ethelred said:
People here have lives outside of GAF? Who would have thought
eatyobeans
Member
Media Crate= Nintendo (mostly Mario and Wii __) + SquareEnix + Monster Hunter
Maybe DMC4 will be able to shake things up.
(Go Smash Bros)
Maybe DMC4 will be able to shake things up.
(Go Smash Bros)
Is SSBB still "supply constrained" pre-release? Are retailers taking pre-orders again? It seemed like there might have been a brief period when they were (it was available briefly again on Amazon.jp), maybe because Nintendo had the opportunity to print more disks due to the delay, but I wasn't sure if that lasted.
I'm surprised by how well Wii Fit continues to sell. I had expected the intrusive nature of the device (need to reserve actual floor space for it, need to move it into place and then tuck it away again for pretty much every play session) to dampen the appeal. I think my original predicion was that it would be outsold by Wii Play within a couple of months after release and then consistently stay below it.
I could argue the possibility of shortages and consequently pent-up demand clouding the issue, and I remain somewhat curious about that, but to be honest I don't really believe it myself anymore. Sales do look strong.
I could argue the possibility of shortages and consequently pent-up demand clouding the issue, and I remain somewhat curious about that, but to be honest I don't really believe it myself anymore. Sales do look strong.
HomerSimpson-Man
Member
DiddyBop said:
Though in Japan, MGS2 didn't affect anything in regards to MGS sales. In fact, Raiden was popular there. MGS1,2,3 all sold around the same numbers ~800,000 each. The fanbase is pretty consistent over there.
norinrad21
Banned
People are expecting too much from DMC4. I'm actually counting on the 360 version to outsell the PS3s in Japan.
I'd assume it will sell to much of the same base that also bought Ninja Gaiden Sigma, but then that was in the middle of last year and the install-base has grown significantly (doubled? tripled? too lazy to check, shoot me) since then, and the 360 version will probably contribute another 20~40k, and a guesstimated 15k from bundles.donny2112 said:
Combining everything, I call 165k first week, 250k within the quarter.
edit: do we know if the DMC4+PS3 bundle is limited (ala Crisis Core+PSP), or is it just like the European starter packs where they just continue to make and sell them forever?
charlequin
Banned
Cheesemeister said:
This is a little better than Famitsu. You can do it!
Keep on truckin', dude.
This game's performance is totally mystifying to me.
Kandinsky said:
I'm bullish on DMC4; I think it's the sort of thing what HD gamers there are in Japan will be looking for. 150k+ first week (combined).
SSBB will sell what it can ship.
norinrad21 said:
Lol.
ccbfan said:
This is a really good question. What's the LTD on Disgaea 1 and 2 for PS2? I lean towards "the Disgaea audience has not adopted the PS3" and poor (relatively speaking) sales as a result, but that's a totally off-the-cuff gut prediction and not anything based on serious evidence.
jay said:
It has nothing to do with "info being worthwhile no matter what its source." We have an official thread poster because it avoids chaos when numbers are posted. Cheesemeister happens to have put a lot of effort into making a nice OP and does a good job of getting the thread up quickly (and, most of the time, warning us in advance if he can't do it so someone else can in his stead).
If CoolTrick had some legit concerns and raised them politely, it'd be one thing, but instead he just throws a petulant, childish shitfit about it, so tough titties for him. I appreciate Cheese's OPs and if anyone else is too impatient to wait for it, they can go F5 the Gpara site themselves.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Wow you lot certainly have a lot invested in DMC4 PS3's success! I wouldn't be shocked at all if Donny was right. I don't think he is, but I wouldn't be shocked.
ccbfan said:
It actually would not mean that.
PantherLotus said:
Did Donny give a prediction beyond "will sell much less than if it were on the PS2?" Because that's self evident. We've seen numerous franchises of greater and deeper popularity lose a massive chunk of their sales in transitioning from the PS2 to the PS3 and there's no reason to think DMC will be any different.
Pointing out that things have been banned has been banned.Fuzzy said:
I'm pretty sure DMC4 will do better than 3.
By DMC3 the sales for the franchise were dying in Japan and no one cared. There were lots of other PS2 games to buy.
DMC4 has a decent amount of hype with kiosk demos for the past year in Japan and then...there aren't any other PS3/X360 games coming out. When only 1 or 2 games come out a month for your system I'd expect at least 150k opening for any big name title.
By DMC3 the sales for the franchise were dying in Japan and no one cared. There were lots of other PS2 games to buy.
DMC4 has a decent amount of hype with kiosk demos for the past year in Japan and then...there aren't any other PS3/X360 games coming out. When only 1 or 2 games come out a month for your system I'd expect at least 150k opening for any big name title.
BishopLamont
Banned
I disagree here, SSBM doubled up on the original game for the first week, I don't see how SSBB can't manage 600k first week. Really icky on DMC4 predictions but I'm guessing 150k combined for both version with PS3 on top ofcourse.donny2112 said:
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
KevinRo said:
And here we find ourselves at a crossroads of analysis, insults, and honest-to-goodness predictions.
1. Why do you think he is stupid?
2. What analysis have you done that has convinced you that you are right?
3. Do you know what a trend is?
Pureauthor
Member
PantherLotus said:
See above statement that has been quoted on multiple occasions.
I checked to see if the avatar was the girl getting shocked at the Wiimote.
It's like when everyone wear low-hanging pants because it's the cool thing to do, right?
a Master Ninja
Member
donny2112 said:
What the...DMC2 is the game in the franchise I haven't played, but was it so bad that it could have soured that many Japanese gamers into not giving DMC3 a chance? Japan didn't even get the "too hard' version of DMC3...what a shame.
AnimeTheme
Member
donny2112 said:
That's why I think DMC4 sales will be "interesting". It will mean quite a lot to see how a high-profile game like DMC4 will do on PS3, after more than 1 year since PS3 launch, and whether the "1/3 of PS2 sales level" still holds true or not.
Disgaea 3 will be another interesting title in this aspect. I think quite a lot of game publishers/developers (especially those from smaller companies) will want to know how a "PS2-scale" game will perform on PS3.