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[schuelma]

For 08, so far NCL's got...

-Dairantou Smash Bros. X (Sora/Game Arts/Smash Team)
-Disaster: Day of Crisis (Monolith Soft)
-Doubutsu no Mori 2 (Nintendo EAD)
-Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo EAD)
-Metroid Prime 3: Corruption (Retro Studios)
-Super Mario Stadium: Family Baseball (Namco)
-Wii Music (Nintendo EAD)


...and it's sure to fill out for the 2nd half after E3. There's also a bunch of WiiWare efforts in the pipeline.

I didn't mean literally nothing- I meant games that can reasonably be expected to grow the core gamer/PS2 gamer base.

 

[JJConrad]

#1- Nintendo has nothing in the pipeline for 08 besides Mario Kart Wii, SSBB and Animal Crossing for 08

- I want to say this is unlikely, but who the hell knows with Nintendo.


#2- 3rd parties have no other major third party games coming for 08 besides MH3.

- I think this is more likely than assumption 1. I think there are announcements to come, but then again I thought major announcements would happen at TGS too


#3- The Wii userbase will continue to not support most 3rd party games leading to further 3rd party trepidation

- We'll see. The argument is that after SSBB the Wii will have a influx of core game owners.



#4- FF13, RE5, and GT5 will be released in 08

You're assuming that the PS2 core base is just sitting there waiting for the PS3 to get it act together. Sales indicate that they've almost all migrated to the DS ... they certainly aren't buying PS2 games like before. Of the two, the Wii has a far better line-up to attract those gamers, especially with the PS3's best games still so far away.

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

I think those third party titles will be harmed more by the PS3 than they will help.

 

[schuelma]

You're assuming that the PS2 core base is just sitting there waiting for the PS3 to get it act together. Sales indicate that they've almost all migrated to the DS ... they certainly aren't buying PS2 games like before. Of the two, the Wii has a far better line-up to attract those gamers, especially with the PS3's best games still so far away.

I agree that many of them have gone to the DS, but I don't think that means they won't eventually pick a console.

And I guess my point is that I don't think your last sentence is necessarily true right now re: Wii's lineup being better to get the core gamer.

 

[jarrod]

I didn't mean literally nothing- I meant games that can reasonably be expected to grow the core gamer/PS2 gamer base.

Well, Disaster, Mario Baseball or Retroid 3 might not be big draws in and of themselves, but they do add to the overall 'core' software landscape. 3 big games isn't bad though, especially when they're all guaranteed million sellers. It's more than any other console's looking at for 2008 in Japan and more than Nintendo committed to Wii in 2007 really.

 

[SunkisTim535]

Just curious.... how well does Grand Theft Auto sell in Japan?

And yay for Galaxy, hopefully it'll get another sales bump when SSBB is released.

 

[fresquito]

1- Is this a possibility
Well, there's always a possibility, but in my book it's really unlikely.
2- What can Sony do to make this theory come true
THey can't do nothing at this point. They've screwed hard the first year, and it's this year where perception is set for the entire generation. Just like GC was perceived like a children toy, Sony is perceived as a very expensive machine.
3- What can Nintendo do to disprove this theory
Continue doing what they are doing.
4- On a related note, will Nintendo actually do what they need to do and do they even want to
Nintendo doesn't need to do a thing. They could, but they don't need it. It's their pie, and they are eating almost all of it. It's third parties' job to come and propose something to get a part of the pie.

Not that I think this is the right thing to do. Nintendo should work hard on getting third parrties on board a seriously as it can get.
5- What will actually happen in 08
Wii will sell a lot. PS3 will do better than in 07 and fanboys will continue talking about a comeback, but things will be set in stone (like they are not already). Some important games will get released, some bumps will feed this speech, but nothing will change in the big picture.

I'm not sure how many big third party titles we will see, but I'm sure we will see some really sweet efforts by third parties that will be loved by many gamers (things like Layton, Ettrian Oddysey and the like).

 

[sphinx]

I agree that many of them have gone to the DS, but I don't think that means they won't eventually pick a console.

at one point I would have agreed, but I am not sure anymore.

I really don't see any japanese publisher or developer sympathetic to "next-gen". Some try low profile games on Wii, some risk with bigger projects on the PS3 but at the end the overall 3rd party enviroment in Japan for home consoles is gray and grim. If I was a Hardcore Japanese gamer, I'd own a DS and PSP and I am not sure I would have time left for more gaming out of the handhelds. I sometimes think that the advent of handhelds has gone so far, that it has hurt the home consoles irreversibly.

 

[JJConrad]

I agree that many of them have gone to the DS, but I don't think that means they won't eventually pick a console.

And I guess my point is that I don't think your last sentence is necessarily true right now re: Wii's lineup being better to get the core gamer.

What was there exactly about the DS that attracted the core gamers to it? There is this misconception that a core-gamer has to be a PS core-gamer or Nintendo core-gamer and that they can't like other types of games. Those people are called fanboys. The Wii will adobt the core-gamer market because it is the most popular and has the widest range of games available.

That's not to say that the PS3 and 360 won't have get any support. There will room for succes on those systems. just like the Gamecube and Xbox had, but it will be limited.

 

[schuelma]

The Wii will adobt the core-gamer market because it is the most popular and has the widest range of games available.

In theory I am with you, but a large part of the point of my post is that just looking at the 08 lineups so far, I'm not seeing it.

 

[ziran]

Ok, I had this thought last night and wanted to get people's opinions.

The question: Does the PS3's 2008 slate of games, combined with the complete lack of big "hardcore" 3rd party Wii games leave open the possibility that by the end of 2008, the PS3 will have enough of a core gamer install base that big 3rd party games will be just as viable on PS3/360 as on the Wii or moreso?

Basically, the argument is that the PS3 has a decent slate of high profile core games coming that will help the PS3 grow the core audience to a degree that it is actually comparable to the Wii's audience. Looking at 08, so far there doesn't seem to be much announced for Wii, especially from 3rd parties, that look to grow the core gamer audience. MH3, Smash, Mario Kart....?? PS3 on the other hand, potentially has a 08 lineup of FF13, RE5, GT5, MGS4, Ryu ga Gotoku Kenzan, DMC4, possibly ToV and some others. Now, I fully realize that the power of these franchises might have heavily been dependant on the PS2 userbase- I guess my response is that if enough of these games are released and the price of the PS3 continues to fall, those PS2 users might migrate to the PS3 instead of the Wii.

Essentially, the argument is that so far the Wii HAS NOT captured the PS2 core audience and doesn't yet have the 08 lineup to change that. PS3 by contrast, just might.


Now this requires a lot of assumptions

#1- Nintendo has nothing in the pipeline for 08 besides Mario Kart Wii, SSBB and Animal Crossing for 08

- I want to say this is unlikely, but who the hell knows with Nintendo.


#2- 3rd parties have no other major third party games coming for 08 besides MH3.

- I think this is more likely than assumption 1. I think there are announcements to come, but then again I thought major announcements would happen at TGS too


#3- The Wii userbase will continue to not support most 3rd party games leading to further 3rd party trepidation

- We'll see. The argument is that after SSBB the Wii will have a influx of core game owners.



#4- FF13, RE5, and GT5 will be released in 08




Ok, so I'm interested in if people think;

1- Is this a possibility
2- What can Sony do to make this theory come true
3- What can Nintendo do to disprove this theory
4- On a related note, will Nintendo actually do what they need to do and do they even want to
5- What will actually happen in 08


One final note- in case anyone thinks otherwise, I'm not at all arguing hardware sales or even overall software sales. Nintendo has that war won.

IMO, the key is going to be the reinvigoration of hardcore franchises on a home system in Japan, and that simply cannot happen on PS3 with the current direction Sony is pushing, and 3rd parties are following. The audience generated is simply too niche and small.

I think, what has happened with DS is what will happen with Wii. Wii has the expanded user base. It's drawing in PS2/GC owners who were bored with where gaming was going last gen, and where it is on PS3, new gamers, and Nintendo fans. The cumulative effect with this audience will be the eventual reinvigoration of hardcore gaming, which will ultimately force many of the die hard Playstation fans to buy Nintendo. We've already seen a Res Evil spin off in the light (mouse) gun genre become a massive seller, bigger than on PS2, and I think this is because of Wii the audience I explained.

3rd parties need to realise while Sony continues down the path of satiating the hardcore they are alienating the masses, but the masses are the people 3rd parties need, and they're on Wii and this is unlikely to change imo. Nintendo's stroke of genius, as far as Japan was concerned, was catering for the fatigue in last gen gaming. Most gamers in Japan were bored shitless of the direction the industry was going in, and have therefore responded favourably to Wii because, well, it's brilliant. Nintendo has hit the nail firmly on the head with its simple, fun, with depth, back to basics gaming philosophy.

I think there is only one solution for 3rd parties on home systems in Japan, especially given PS3's poor sw sales and ridiculously high dev costs, and that is Wii. By 2009 I expect Wii to be the dominant, and extremely favourable profit wise, platform for 3rd parties in Japan, far surpassing anything PS3 could achieve.

 

[JJConrad]

In theory I am with you, but a large part of the point of my post is that just looking at the 08 lineups so far, I'm not seeing it.

But your '08 PS3 line-up is made up of '09 games.

 

[duk]

1- Is this a possibility
Well, there's always a possibility, but in my book it's really unlikely.
2- What can Sony do to make this theory come true
THey can't do nothing at this point. They've screwed hard the first year, and it's this year where perception is set for the entire generation. Just like GC was perceived like a children toy, Sony is perceived as a very expensive machine.
3- What can Nintendo do to disprove this theory
Continue doing what they are doing.
4- On a related note, will Nintendo actually do what they need to do and do they even want to
Nintendo doesn't need to do a thing. They could, but they don't need it. It's their pie, and they are eating almost all of it. It's third parties' job to come and propose something to get a part of the pie.

Not that I think this is the right thing to do. Nintendo should work hard on getting third parrties on board a seriously as it can get.
5- What will actually happen in 08
Wii will sell a lot. PS3 will do better than in 07 and fanboys will continue talking about a comeback, but things will be set in stone (like they are not already). Some important games will get released, some bumps will feed this speech, but nothing will change in the big picture.

I'm not sure how many big third party titles we will see, but I'm sure we will see some really sweet efforts by third parties that will be loved by many gamers (things like Layton, Ettrian Oddysey and the like).

 

[Kobun Heat]

I don't know whether to post about how I'm excited about Soma Bringer or a point-by-point refutation of that bolded nonsense.

 

[Frillen]

Just curious.... how well does Grand Theft Auto sell in Japan?

And yay for Galaxy, hopefully it'll get another sales bump when SSBB is released.

The three main games sold between 300k and 500k I think. I don't have the numbers, but I know someone has.

 

[Xeke]

I don't know whether to post about how I'm excited about Soma Bringer or a point-by-point refutation of that bolded nonsense.

Both!

 

[schuelma]

I don't know whether to post about how I'm excited about Soma Bringer or a point-by-point refutation of that bolded nonsense.

I was presenting an argument. I don't necessarily agree with it, and if pressed think its more likely that the theory doesn't end up working. Again, let me repeat- I was making an argument I think is at the very least plausible given what we know about Wii's 08 lineup so far.


I would love to hear your point by point refutation of my bolded nonsense, just keep in mind that in most respects I'm playing devils' advocate here.

 

[schuelma]

But your '08 PS3 line-up is made up of '09 games.

Again, I stated clearly in my post that I was making a lot of assumptions. Is FF13 in 08 likely? Maybe not, but we have gotten a lot of media in it the last week or so. my post was kind of a what if....

 

[birdchili]

would it be unusual/unprecedented for a platform holder (say... Nintendo) to suggest to third parties that they hold off on new game announcements until some future time?

it seems that strategically, nintendo doesn't really *need* any more hype until they've got their supply issue under control (though the general discontent among "core" gamers is surely hurting their platform's reputation). game announcements spur hardware sales, and with no stock to sell, this "boost" would be largely wasted.

 

[schuelma]

would it be unusual/unprecedented for a platform holder (say... Nintendo) to suggest to third parties that they hold off on new game announcements until some future time?

it seems that strategically, nintendo doesn't really *need* any more hype until they've got their supply issue under control (though the general discontent among "core" gamers is surely hurting their platform's reputation). game announcements spur hardware sales, and with no stock to sell, this "boost" would be largely wasted.

Well, in Japan I don't think the Wii has been hardware restrained since Fall.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I don't know whether to post about how I'm excited about Soma Bringer or a point-by-point refutation of that bolded nonsense.

I think ethel spoiled the brief love-in we were having there with his pessimistic outlook on the sales.

 

[Xeke]

We only know Sony's 08 lineup so well because they are the only ones who need to show it. Nintendo doesn't need to show shit until after Smash Brothers and Microsoft is already in good position.

 

[Haunted]

I don't know whether to post about how I'm excited about Soma Bringer or a point-by-point refutation of that bolded nonsense.

refutation! refutation!

 

[schuelma]

We only know Sony's 08 lineup so well because they are the only ones who need to show it. Nintendo doesn't need to show shit until after Smash Brothers and Microsoft is already in good position.

I hope so, but as of now the only game after Smash with a solid release date is Metroid for March. (in Japan)

 

[Cosmonaut X]

We only know Sony's 08 lineup so well because it was supposed to be their 07 lineup

Fixed ;-)

 

[birdchili]

Well, in Japan I don't think the Wii has been hardware restrained since Fall.

they must be riding a fairly narrow supply/demand line in japan though. north america has been pretty scarce-supplied since perhaps october and supply is a global issue. i imagine that they've decided that it hurts them least to short north america and sell as much as they can in japan.

 

[Jiggy]

I keep trying to play my first Tales game and Scamco keeps cockblocking me. Let's hope they don't do it this time!

*shakes fist*

BUY A PSP--
--well, actually, I guess even I wouldn't recommend Radiant Mythology as a first Tales game, as much as I loved it. And then early prints of Eternia apparently had some kind of game-breaking bug.

 

[jarrod]

Speaking of userbase drivers, rounding up the possible 500k+ sellers for 08 in Japan...

Nintendo DS
-Dragon Quest V: Tenkuu no Hanayome (Square Enix/Arte Piazza/Matrix)
-Dragon Quest VI: Maboroshi no Daichi (Square Enix/Arte Piazza/Matrix)
-Dragon Quest IX: Hoshizora no Mamoribito (Square Enix/Level 5) 2009?
-Gyakuten Saiban 5 (Capcom)
-Hoshi no Kirby: Ultra Super Deluxe (Nintendo/HAL)
-Inazuma Eleven (Level 5)
-Layton Kyouju to Saigo no Jikan Ryokou (Level 5)
-Kingdom Hearts: 358/2 Days (Square Enix/h.a.n.d.)
-Mario & Sonic at the Bejing Olympics (Nintendo/SEGA)
-Pokemon Ranger: Batonnage (Pokemon/HAL)
-Ryusei no Rockman 3 (Capcom)
-Yume Neko DS (SEGA)

Wii
-Dairantou Smash Bros. X (Nintendo/Sora/Game Arts)
-Doubutsu no Mori 2 (Nintendo) 2009?
-Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo)
-Mario Party 9 (Nintendo/Hudson)
-Monster Hunter 3-tri (Capcom)
-Wii Music (Nintendo)

PlayStation 3
-Gran Turismo 5 (SCEI/Polyphony Digital)
-Final Fantasy XIII (Square Enix) 2009?
-Metal Gear Solid 4: Guns of the Patriots (Konami/Kojipro)
-Ryu ga Gotoku Kenzan! (SEGA)

PSP
-Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep (Square Enix)
-Monster Hunter Portable 2G (Capcom)

Xbox 360
-lolz!

...anything else?

 

[Pachael]

My guess is that if the DS version does not fail radically compared to projections, Mario & Sonic will actually exceed Sega's ridiculous projection.

It's not ridiculous anymore if they meet it ;p

 

[Darji]

...anything else?

White Knight Chronicles and

Spoiler

Final Fantasy XIII

 

[Parl]

Speaking of userbase drivers, rounding up the possible 500k+ sellers for 08 in Japan...

And then there's many Wii and DS games released last year that will/may sell 500k+.

MHP2 can be put in there too (first edition).

 

[jarrod]

White Knight Chronicles and

Keep dreaming... it won't even crack 300k.

MGS4 is iffy imo, but it's at least got a chance.

 

[felipeko]

...anything else?

Don't Winning Eleven have a shot?
People won't play it in PS2 forever...

 

[Darji]

Keep dreaming... it won't even crack 300k.

MGS4 is iffy imo, but it's at least got a chance.

Blue Dragon on 360 got 200k right? So why cant WKC get 500k+ ?

 

[Oblivion]

Blue Dragon on 360 got 200k right? So why cant WKC get 500k+ ?

I'd imagine it'd be the same reason most PS3 games don't get 500+.

 

[jarrod]

Blue Dragon on 360 got 200k right? So why cant WKC get 500k+ ?

Why couldn't Dark Cloud? Why couldn't Dark Chronicle? Why couldn't Rogue Galaxy? Why couldn't Jeanne d'Arc? :lol

 

[jarrod]

Don't Winning Eleven have a shot?
People won't play it in PS2 forever...

WE's already getting nerfed on PS2 as is. Expect it to be totally Musou'd when it moves wholesale to PS360ii.

 

[Darji]

Why couldn't Dark Cloud? Why couldn't Dark Chronicle? Why couldn't Rogue Galaxy? Why couldn't Jeanne d'Arc? :lol

because Rogue Galaxy or Jeanne d'Arc <<<< WKC?

Also Level 5 is now very successful so it could be quite possible as the PS3s first really big RPG.

 

[[Nintex]]

People keep underestimating Mario Kart.. "oh, and Mario kart"

It's one of Nintendo's biggest franchises, I expect alot more games this year though. They can't wait for the next Zelda or Mario so I think we might finally see some new console projects(the IP Miyamoto's has hinted at that's not WiiFit) and perhaps a new EAD Starfox game.

 

[jarrod]

because Rogue Galaxy or Jeanne d'Arc <<<< WKC?

Also Level 5 is now very successful so it could be quite possible as the PS3s first really big RPG.

I dunno, Blue Dragon had a lot more going for it in terms of recognizable pedigree. Hell, so did Lost Oyssey...

Level 5 hit it big with DQ8, and even that didn't help Rogue Galaxy. Layton's been great, but it plays to a dominating platform's strengths and already established base (as will Ina11)... WKS isn't at all comparable really.

 

[jarrod]

Mario Kart Wii's going to outsell GT5 by over 2:1. Star Fox Wii is rumored to be outsourced (AM2 plz!).

 

[Darji]

I dunno, Blue Dragon had a lot more going for it in terms of recognizable pedigree. Hell, so did Lost Oyssey...

Level 5 hit it big with DQ8, and even that didn't help Rogue Galaxy. Layton's been great, but it plays to a dominating platform's strengths and already established base (as will Ina11)... WKS isn't at all comparable really.

Blue Dragon ok but Lost Odessey? Never. When they first showed it many people thought it was just another 0815 RPG in HD nothing more. But WKC had from the begining a WOW factor. Just watch the first trailer and you will see it.

I am not saing that WKC will definetly break the 500k but its quite possible.

 

[charlequin]

because Rogue Galaxy or Jeanne d'Arc <<<< WKC?

There's nothing so amazingly special about WKC to catapult it beyond all previous Level 5 titles despite the fairly major "on PS3 instead of PS2" drawback.

Also Level 5 is now very successful so it could be quite possible as the PS3s first really big RPG.

If you actually think that the gangbusters sales of Layton on the DS have even the slightest relation to the sales of Level 5's hardcore RPG title on the PS3... :lol

 

[donny2112]

Famitsu Jan 7-13

1. WII Wii Fit 93306 / 1005167
2. NDS Mario Party DS 52345 / 1493083
3. WII Wii Sports 41141 / 2632725
4. WII Wii Play 26386 / 2119756
5. NDS Prof. Layton and the Devil's Box 22653 / 696633
6. NDS Final Fantasy IV 20281 / 547412
7. PSP Monster Hunter Portable 2 19897 / 1551412
8. WII Mario & Sonic at the Olympic Games 19574 / 457090
9. NDS Mario Kart DS 19002 / 2782662
10. NDS Rune Factory 2 17986 / 74068
11. WII Super Mario Galaxy 17617 / 827318 (sales until Mario 64: 813K)
12. WII Mario Party 8 16221 / 1138330
13. NDS Dragon Quest IV 16125 / 1139368
14. PS2 Super Robot Taisen Original Generation Gaiden 15362 / 257178
15. PSP Star Ocean: The First Departure 14041 / 175402
16. PS2 Winning Eleven 11: PES 2008 13155 / 595030
17. NDS New Super Mario Bros. 13020 / 5051191
18. NDS Animal Crossing: Wild World 12044 / 4554255
19. PS3 Call of Duty 4: Modern Warfare 11493 / 50369
20. NDS Prof. Layton and the Mysterious Village 11200 / 802763
21. NDS Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Darkness/Time 11044 / 1313103
22. PS2 Naruto: Shippuuden N-Ultimate Accelerator 2 10954 / 169619
23. NDS Kanji Brain 2 + Dictionary 10762 / 144944
24. NDS Brain Training 2 9119 / 4815705
25. PSP Minna no Golf Portable 2 9007 / 194294
26. NDS My Housekeeping Diary 8253 / 396258
27. WII Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles 8200 / 241855
28. NDS Pokemon Diamond/Pearl 7870 / 5424750
29. NDS Mega Man Star Force 2: Beserk x Shinobi/Dinosaur 7828 / 258325
30. PS2 Yakuza 2 (BEST) 7739 / 95333

*. WII Katekyoo Hitman Reborn! Dream Hyper Battle! Wii 6900 / NEW
*. 360 Armored Core 4 (BEST) 2000 / NEW
*. PS3 Armored Core 4 (BEST) 1400 / NEW
*. PSP Zero Shiki Kanjou Sentouki Ni (Aces of War 2) 600 / NEW


Recent Famitsu Top 30s

Dec 10-16, 2007
Dec 17-23, 2007
Dec 24, 2007-Jan 6, 2008

 

[Busaiku]

Great to see UC doing so well.
Might be able to pull 300k or so.

 

[Frillen]

1/14 - 1/20:

DS Lite 88,575
Wii 81,638
PSP 79,923
PS3 38,117
PS2 13,539
Xbox 360 4,552

 

[schuelma]

DS Lite 88,575
Wii 81,638
PSP 79,923
PS3 38,117
PS2 13,539
Xbox 360 4,552

Wow, kind of surprised at how well Wii and especially PS3 is holding up.

 

[Zombie James]

PSP still hanging up here, impressive.

 

[AniHawk]

And the DS begins its slow descent into obscurity.

 

[Crimmy]

Good to see Nintendo continue to dominate