PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
viciouskillersquirrel said:
My immediate problem is how to establish a mean accuracy so I can have a nice +/- % expectancy. I forgot the rules on when you throw out outliers.
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Media Create Sales: 10/13 - 10/19
- Thread starter PantherLotus
- Start date
My immediate problem is how to establish a mean accuracy so I can have a nice +/- % expectancy. I forgot the rules on when you throw out outliers.
BishopLamont
Banned
Last Remnant prediction:
First week: 110k
LTD: 160k
First week: 110k
LTD: 160k
jesusraz
Member
I was thinking more around the 75,000 mark for its first week. By the way, I'm certainly looking forward to the leaked numbers later, in the hope that Tenchu picked up more and Castlevania: OoE managed to crack the 25,000 unit mark after its strong start. And will Girls Mode claim the No.1 spot? Ooh, the excitement...
PantherLotus said:
On continuous data with unusual spikes the norm rather than the rare exception (big launches) the Median is often quite useful. As you say you'd need to know about the big weeks and have a control factor for those too, but for standard weeks it could reduce the percentage swings.
creamsugar
Member
Pro Golfer Monkey　720
test_account
XP-39C²
No big suprise with the PS3 (atleast in my opinion). Last week it was under 5k, and i since the new bundles are released tomorrow, i didnt think this week's (well, last week) numbers would be any higher for the PS3. Still, its a pretty low number though, no doubt about that. I wonder how the PS3 will do in the upcomming months now that the 80GB is being released. I wonder if it will go about to about 10k a week or if it will eventually go down to around 5k as it is now.
I wonder why Tenchu 4 sold so little compared to how Tenchu 3 did. Tenchu 3 did about 124k the first week. Maybe it was much more adverticing around Tenchu 3, but still, its over 100k in difference.
I wonder why Tenchu 4 sold so little compared to how Tenchu 3 did. Tenchu 3 did about 124k the first week. Maybe it was much more adverticing around Tenchu 3, but still, its over 100k in difference.
The series hasn't exactly been on the rise since Tenchu 3, but the Wii clearly doesn't have the Tenchu fanbase from the PS2 regardless.test_account said:
http://garaph.info/softwaregroup.php?grid=133
Tenchu 4 will fit nicely in between the PSP and 360 games on this graph.
I wonder how the 360 version would have done with a 6 million install base though!
1.Girl's Mode　86000
2.Abaddon　77000
3.Pokemon Platinum　48000　1793000
4.WiiMusic　42000　141000
5.Rhythm Tengoku Gold　37000　968000
6.Yuusha no Kuse ni Namaiki da or2　29000　91000
7.Castlevania　20000
8.BLEACH　18000
9.Soul Eater DS　13000
10.Tenchu 4　13000
1.Girl's Mode　86000
2.Abaddon　77000
3.Pokemon Platinum　48000　1793000
4.WiiMusic　42000　141000
5.Rhythm Tengoku Gold　37000　968000
6.Yuusha no Kuse ni Namaiki da or2　29000　91000
7.Castlevania　20000
8.BLEACH　18000
9.Soul Eater DS　13000
10.Tenchu 4　13000
test_account
XP-39C²
Ye, that might be the reason, loss of interest for the serie. But when the Tenchu game for the PSP was released, the PSP installbase was at about 1.6 million. When the Tenchu game for the Xbox 360 was released, the Xbox 360 install base was at about 166k.botticus said:
The Wii install base is now at about 6.9 million. I would think it could do better than 13k the first week :\ The PS2 install base was at 11.3 million when Tenchu 3 was released, so the bigger install base might also have been a factor to higher sale of Tenchu 3 compared to Tenchu 4.
But it has only been 1 week. The Tench game for PSP opened at 28.1k, but the LTD ended at 70.942k, so something simular might happend to Tenchu 4 for the Wii as well. We'll see what happends
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Those "spinoffs" were by and large spin-offs in name only, and were positioned marketing-wise as new installments in the series. Also, spin-offs are perfectly capable of diluting a brand, particularly if that brand is not well-established to begin with.Spiegel said:
Nevertheless, the Wii's audience certainly plays into such a low number. It seems as though the Wii is nigh-invulnerable to attempts to expand its market beyond the expanded market.
Also AHAHHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAA at this week's failures, including long-running endurance champ the PS3.
test_account said:But it has only been 1 week. The Tench game for PSP opened at 28.1k, but the LTD ended at 70.942k, so something simular might happend to the Wii version as well. We'll see what happends
I think its pretty clear that Tenchu 4 is a big bomba. Probably some of it is decline in interest, some of it might be lack of advertising, and some of it is no doubt the Wii userbase.
With only 3k after the first day, I don't think it will go very far. I suppose once Tenchu 5 comes out in 5 years for Platform X we'll know how much of that to attribute to series attrition and how much to lack of interest from the Wii userbase.test_account said:Ye, that might be the reason, loss of interest for the serie. But when the Tenchu game for the PSP was released, the PSP installbase was at about 1.6 million. When the Tenchu game for the Xbox 360 was released, the Xbox 360 install base was at about 166k.
The Wii install base is now at about 6.9 million. I would think it could do better than 13k :\ The PS2 install base was at 11.3 million when Tenchu 3 was released, so the bigger install base might also have been a factor to higher sale of Tenchu 3 compared to Tenchu 4.
But it has only been 1 week. The Tench game for PSP opened at 28.1k, but the LTD ended at 70.942k, so something simular might happend to the Wii version as well. We'll see what happends
Segata Sanshiro said:
It's very interesting what games do fine and what games bomb. Fatal Frame IV with its bugs and bad pub is most likely now the best selling entry in the series, while Tenchu IV is a complete flop.
It's obvious that the PS2 userbase is not shifting to the Wii, but it also seems like certain franchises do ok. Weird.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
lol @ tenchu, even with acquire back...bodes well for tenchu 5 and 6 eh? :lol
Freaking huge drop for PSP. Insane weekend for Girls Mode, "DS2" did pretty fine, Castlevania on the same numbers as the PSP one (which means better than the other DS titles), poor Bleach and Saihai no Yukue numbers.
Freaking huge drop for PSP. Insane weekend for Girls Mode, "DS2" did pretty fine, Castlevania on the same numbers as the PSP one (which means better than the other DS titles), poor Bleach and Saihai no Yukue numbers.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
That would be a good name for a spinoff of Beyond the Beyond.Segata Sanshiro said:
Segata Sanshiro
Member
Ehn, think I'll take another "few months" holiday.
/wave, my fellow sales mavens.
/wave, my fellow sales mavens.
test_account
XP-39C²
That is a good point, i didnt think about that Tenchu 4 went from 10k the first day sales to 13k the first week sales, thanks for pointing that outbotticus said:
I guess this relatively small increase from the first day sales to the first week sales might be a indicator that Tenchu 4 wont increase the sales in the upcomming weeks and months that much. It is a pity for the developer and the publisher of Tenchu 4 I hope that Tenchu 4 sells better in the rest of the world (if Tenchu 4 gets released outside of Japan).Pureauthor
Member
Segata Sanshiro said:
Until you return, then.
*raises a glass of whole milk*
gregor7777
Banned
Segata Sanshiro said:
god speed, Segata Sanshiro
PepsimanVsJoe
Member
Hopefully Tenchu 4 does well in the west. I mean damn if Tenchu Z can perform over here what's stopping T4?
Then again X360 userbase /= Wii userbase so hmm...
Then again X360 userbase /= Wii userbase so hmm...
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
Jonnyram said:
wow good job for devil summoner 2, almost outselling DS1 ltd week one. excellent continuing sales for pokemon platinum and Yuusa no Kuse ni Namaiki da or2.
hahahaah girls mode success
hahahaha wii music bombaaaa
hahahaha castlevania continues to tank
hahahaha soul eater what a shitty fanchise
hahahaha tenchu 4 1/10th of tenchu 3
hahahaha ps3 all-time low
hahahaha psp off sharply from 3000 debut
hahahaahahah
yankee666
Member
I just dont get it. The 3rd party japanese devs jump the bandagon from ps360 to the wi because it has the biggest userbase, but then when they release a "hardcore" game it doesnt sell more than 15k the first week. ie Disaster (2nd party), sky crawlers, and now tenchu 4 to name a few. Is japan slowly turning into casual gamers??.... i hope not
PistolGrip
sex vacation in Guam
wow @ PS3 numbers. What in the world. Sony needs a redesign quick!
Japan has always been full of casual gamers. Famicom was literally as its name described -- a Family Computer. The fact that casual and hardcore market were together caused many positives for the industry. I'm sure there are more than a few games that have been bought by casuals because of buzz from the hardcore; Rhythm Tengoku would arguably be a perfect example of this.yankee666 said:
Unfortunately, disposable income is finite, and the casual have already spent most of their cash on WiiSports, WiiFit, WiiPlay, and are in the process of spending on WiiMusic. The PS1 and PS2 had massive casual userbases, but no Wii<fill in the blank> titles, so the casuals bought games like FF, DQ, MinGolf, GT, etc.
yankee666 said:
It's weird though, because some "hardcore" Wii releases have done just fine. ToS:KoR, RE:UC, Fatal Frame...
It's a very tough market to figure out apparently. The big problem I see is there haven't been any major tentpole 3rd party games to build up that PS2 audience.
Sky Crawlers
BASARA 2
Tenchu 4
Guilty Gear XX (compared to 360 anemic user base, the 360 game double in sales at Wii version)
All those game bombed hard on Wii, I was expected they perform a little better, they aren't from crappy developer X.
It seems hard determinate what game will sell well, other hardcore games performed just well: Fatal Frame 4, MS Gundam 0079, DQS, RE serie, etc.
BASARA 2
Tenchu 4
Guilty Gear XX (compared to 360 anemic user base, the 360 game double in sales at Wii version)
All those game bombed hard on Wii, I was expected they perform a little better, they aren't from crappy developer X.
It seems hard determinate what game will sell well, other hardcore games performed just well: Fatal Frame 4, MS Gundam 0079, DQS, RE serie, etc.
Pureauthor
Member
MS Gundam and DQS can be explained as being relatively 'mainstream' in the consciousness of the Japanese audience, they'd likely perform well as long as they weren't dumped onto failure consoles.
More niche series in general seem to be utter crapshoots, though.
More niche series in general seem to be utter crapshoots, though.