This Week Sales:
Since 11/27/07:
22 Total Weeks of Next Gen sales.
12 Total Weeks of post-holiday sales.
360 - Following the trend: 2-4k. Next Gen Avg = 8,229.
Post Holiday Avg = 4,507.
Wii - Established Trend: 63-78k. Next Gen Avg = 103,204.
Post Holiday Avg = 72,220.
PS3 - Almost 360's trend: 8-18k. Next Gen Avg = 39,165.
Post Holiday Avg = 20,884.
Results, Analysis, & Expectations
● The 360's sales are insignificant. They will not hit 1 million units before its successor is announced. 2k-5k per week for the foreseeable future.
● The PS3's sales are insignificant.
Sony will not break 35% market share this generation. 8-15k for the foreseeable future.
● The Wii's sales were expected, even if a bit overshadowed by the DS' triumph. Expect it to return to earth a little, but a little buoyed coming off of a big week. 65-85k for the summer.
GOLDEN WEEK: Expectations for 04/30-05/07
360 - 8k*
Wii - 98k*
PS3 - 15k*
* = within 8k estimation success the previous week!
This Week's Market Share:
LTD Market Share Week-to-Week
Code:
Date____ 360 Wii PS3
11/27-12/03: 25% 49% 26%
12/04-12/10: 24% 49% 27%
12/11-12/17: 21% 50% 29%
12/18-12/24: 17% 57% 26%
12/25-12/31: 16% 56% 28%
01/01-01/07: 15% 58% 27%
01/08-01/14: 14% 59% 27%
01/15-01/21: 14% 60% 26%
01/22-01/28: 13% 60% 26%
01/29-02/04: 13% 61% 26%
02/05-02/11: 13% 61% 26%
02/12-02/18: 13% 62% 26%
02/19-02/25: 12% 62% 25%
03/26-03/04: 12% 62% 26%
03/05-03/11: 12% 62% 26%
03/12-03/18: 11% 62% 26%
03/19-03/25: 11% 63% 26%
03/26-04/01: 11% 63% 26%
04/02-04/08: 11% 63% 26%
04/09-04/15: 11% 64% 26%
04/16-04/22: 10% 64% 25%
04/23-04/29: 10% 65% 25%
Significant Notes:
● The Wii has had a 1 million unit lead on the PS3 for 9 weeks. (currently
1,408,855 lead)
● The Wii sold 8.0x the PS3 this week, and has 2.64x LTD.
● The Wii is around ~11 weeks from breaking 3 million.
● The PS3 is around ~10 weeks from breaking 1 million.
●
The PS3 has never. once. outsold. the Wii.
● The Wii seriously has 103k weekly average (22 weeks). The PS3? 39k.
● This is the 4th continuous week that the Wii has sold more than the previous week.
● This is the 1st week in the last 9 that the PS3 sold more than the previous week.
If sales repeated this week's results indefinitely, barring all other factors:
● The Wii will have a 2 million unit lead by JULY 2007. Seriously.
● The Wii will have a 3 million unit lead by NOVEMBER 2007.
Additional thoughts
1. 118k home consoles sold this week in Japan (102K were Wii units).
2. If you're developing for the PS3, you're going multi-platform. If not, Sony is paying you the difference.
3. I have officially moved up my "the PS3 has until this date to figure-it-the-****-out" to January 2008. And it won't.
4. It's...pretty much over. Expect more exclusives to jump ship.
5. The biggest holiday of the year, and Sony makes no attempt at righting their ship and trying to win these important early battles. It's as if they don't even care about Japan. Or they've already given up. Shameful. They have brought shame on what was once a glorious empire.
Seriously...they offer an American Football game as their marquis Golden Week title? It's almost like they want the PS3 to fail.