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Deku said:
That may be true, but individually, both Wii Sports and Wii Play has outsold the entire PS3 in game sales in Japan. Nintendo is going to be alright.
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Media Create Sales 4/23 - 4/29
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
That may be true, but individually, both Wii Sports and Wii Play has outsold the entire PS3 in game sales in Japan. Nintendo is going to be alright.
Gekkonidae
Member
All these arguments about PS2 gamers "holding off" are specious and reflect a lack of undersanding of market mechanics. Sure the video-game industry is very particular, but in any industry you have to look at current sales and sales trends and those are the steadiest predictors of growth.
I don't want to make this too econ-heavy, but reading market performance is really a lot simpler than you guys are making it, the Wii is outselling the PS3 and the Wii is trending upwards while the PS3 is trending downwards. All other data are mere details in the face of these overwhelming facts. These trends will continue until something alters the conditions of the market (say, a price drop.)
Furthermore, when a system is selling better it will have more support. However, this support usually lags 8-12 months behind, because developers can only respond to the current sales environment, and games take time to make it to market. This is why console races are usually decided within the first 8 months of all consoles being released. After that point market trends become self-reinforcing, and thus changing them is practically impossible.
I don't want to make this too econ-heavy, but reading market performance is really a lot simpler than you guys are making it, the Wii is outselling the PS3 and the Wii is trending upwards while the PS3 is trending downwards. All other data are mere details in the face of these overwhelming facts. These trends will continue until something alters the conditions of the market (say, a price drop.)
Furthermore, when a system is selling better it will have more support. However, this support usually lags 8-12 months behind, because developers can only respond to the current sales environment, and games take time to make it to market. This is why console races are usually decided within the first 8 months of all consoles being released. After that point market trends become self-reinforcing, and thus changing them is practically impossible.
chibcicylist said:
I personally don't see that happening here is why, there will always be developers that are graphic whores and they want there games to look pretty. The Wii is so far behind the other 2 systems it is very much possible that developers will split there games down the middle this generation. Wii games then a multi platform PS360 game, as much as developers like to make money they see there games are art and want them to look the best as possible. The reason that didn't happen the last generation is because the xbox, cube, and the PS2 were in the game ballpark as far as graphic goes so making games for the PS2 satisfied there graphic whoring and there sales ratio. This generation is completely different, the Wii is selling good but just don't believe developers will say screw the 360/PS3 we will only make Wii games.
this gen is going to be a bit weird though because wii was such an upset. (many) third parties were deep in ps3 development before they realized what was going on, and the shift is going to be slow. also - surely these ps3 titles will get released (possibly later than they would have otherwise been due to publishers wanting to hold off for a bigger installed base).Gekkonidae said:
and there is *surely* going to be a ps3 price drop.
all that said, if i'm coming across as predicting any sort of ps3 victory here you're misreading.
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
They'll have to come. Devs/publishers can only ignore it for so long. Expect all new announcements after Winter 08 to be geared towards Wii if the current sales trend continue or worsen. Japanese devs can't ignore the horrible PS3 and 360 sales for too much longer. 08 is gonna be the banner year for Wii. Nintendo is doing it right by concentrating on this year with the big guns and will let 3rd parties control Christmas 08 in Japan. Then, the entire market will continue to fall. Capcom (or is it Konami?) is on board and are testing the market out with RE4 and UC on the Wii. These will hit way before RE5 and has the potential to swing a good chunk of Capcom's support. We are just waiting for the big guns further down the line.birdchili said:sports games was probably not a great example
my point isn't that wii is going to have any trouble selling a bajillion consoles on the strength of 'wii ___'-style games, but that there are a lot of pseudo-hardcore gamers that are looking for a diverse lineup of games in more traditional genres that nintendo isn't going to get with 'blue ocean' games coupled with new versions of 'hardcore' nintendo franchise games (mario, metroid, etc...)
there's a group of hardcore gamers who are aboard the hd train, but there's a huge demographic that isn't obviously being served by any new console yet. third parties are crucial to grab these people.
chibcicylist
Banned
JudgeN said:
$$$$$$$
Even if all the developers develop a fatal case of stupidity and games don't come, Nintendo should be fine. They have the first party power that the other two doesnt and have franchises that dominates even the best selling third party stuff. They came up with Super Smash Brothers, Mario, Donkey Kong, Zelda, Pokemon, Brain Training, Nintendogs and Wii Sports on their own, after all.
Really, third parties have WAY more to lose here than Nintendo. It's all up to them. You don't survive for 110+ years for nothing.
Count Dookkake
Member
Hcoregamer00 said:
Why would Sony be waiting for a Wii game?
Gekkonidae said:
they're not "holding off" - they're just not looking at next-gen consoles yet. these people aren't early adopters at all. some of them will be shopping for cmas consoles in 2007, many of them will probably buy in 2008. sequels to big ps2 games are going to be on 360/ps3 this year because devs didn't consider wii a player until recently. these games are going to influence purchasing decisions.
...and any third party that isn't considering wii *the* player at this point is borderline insane.
chibcicylist said:
I pretty sure I never said Nintendo would go out of business I was saying that people have declared the Wii the winner and aspect the 360 or PS3 to fall off the market in the next year. Just don't see that happening, they might not be the market leader but they will still have there fair share of great games.
chibcicylist
Banned
At the very least though, some niche japanese developers have already expressed thier full support for the Wii. Didn't we get some sort of news a few weeks ago that some niche hardcore jrpg developers would focus on the Wii and DS?
I wasn't implying that Nintendo is safe from going out of business. I was implying that Nintendo is safe in holding on to first place even if the third parties don't come.
I agree with you that the 360 and the PS3 will still get great games even if the Wii dominates. But most of it and developer's resources will be(or should be) on the Wii.
JudgeN said:
I wasn't implying that Nintendo is safe from going out of business. I was implying that Nintendo is safe in holding on to first place even if the third parties don't come.
I agree with you that the 360 and the PS3 will still get great games even if the Wii dominates. But most of it and developer's resources will be(or should be) on the Wii.
Yeah just like with DS/PSP right? Or incredible big console games like Dragon Quest IX going to a handheld, even the one with the least power?JudgeN said:
Don't kid yourself, it's all about the money at the and of the day and publishers make the cals, not the developers (except sometimes with first party titles).
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Terrell said:
With all due respect to Mr. Horii, big-name developers are still bound by the law of money. Publishers don't bow to developers because of "artistic decisions" when it's one of the biggest game franchises on Earth...regardless of their stature.
You think Miyamoto would have a job if Nintendo didn't keep making money off of his hits?
chibcicylist
Banned
Speevy said:
In a few hours, most likely. 4 hours tops.
No, but I do think that publishers do their best to listen to the developers, especially top-tier ones like Horii, because in case you haven't noticed, developers aren't scared to just walk off if they get pushed around too much. I'd like to think Square Enix would do everything they could to keep Horii happy, because if he walked, Dragon Quest's noteriety (and possibly quality) would take a huge hit that it would never recover from. And this is just one example. Monolith giving Namco the finger and getting funding and publishing for their games from Nintendo is another example, and look how that turned out.PantherLotus said:
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
Terrell said:
Right.
And none of that has to do with a developer actually getting to pick which platform his games are published on.
Developers tend to follow the money and more importantly, publishers ALWAYS follow the money. That's their job.
With PS3 and Wii selling the way they are in Japan, as a Japanese developer, you'd have to be absolutely INSANE to put the majority of your resources behind the PS3. That's the simple truth, like it or not and it's not even taking into account the discrepancies in production budgets between the two platforms.
With PS3 and Wii selling the way they are in Japan, as a Japanese developer, you'd have to be absolutely INSANE to put the majority of your resources behind the PS3. That's the simple truth, like it or not and it's not even taking into account the discrepancies in production budgets between the two platforms.
Hollywood_mIRC
Banned
LOL. It's so funny whats happening in Japan. Say a Japanese developer, Konami, Square, Capcom, etc - wants to make a next-gen graphical game - they essentially are forced to market it for the US for 360 and PS3 multiplatform, and hope they make up all the sales there because Japan is doing horrible for both systems.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
Huh.
DSL 255,971
Wii 102,522
PSP 33,860
PS3 12,791
PS2 12,584
Xbox360 3,162
GBM 630
GBASP 495
GC 167
DS 92
GBA 0
Edit: We should see how well that formula works. In both directions.
DSL 255,971
Wii 102,522
PSP 33,860
PS3 12,791
PS2 12,584
Xbox360 3,162
GBM 630
GBASP 495
GC 167
DS 92
GBA 0
Edit: We should see how well that formula works. In both directions.
Eteric Rice
Member
bmf said:
Are these the real numbers?
If so. :O
Grampa Simpson
Banned
chibcicylist
Banned
Oh my.
Nintendo holding back stock for golden week seems credible now. Then there's reports of increased stock for both North America and PAL.
PS3 just got outsold nearly 9 to 1. Wow is an understatement.
Nintendo holding back stock for golden week seems credible now. Then there's reports of increased stock for both North America and PAL.
PS3 just got outsold nearly 9 to 1. Wow is an understatement.
Dragona Akehi
Retired
GhaleonEB said:
It still went up from last week, tho. That's something, right right?
Miniboss1232
Member
So the Wii is outselling the PS3 8:1 now. Just wow.
Next week (Golden Week numbers, which is actually later this week... whatever), 9:1 confirmed??
Next week (Golden Week numbers, which is actually later this week... whatever), 9:1 confirmed??
Cheesemeister
Member
31./04. [NDS] Nodame Cantabile (Bandai-Namco)
32./16. [PS2] Musou Orochi (Koei)
33./00. [PSP] Everyone's Map 2 (Zenrin)
34./26. [NDS] Dragon Quest Monsters Joker (Square-Enix)
35./00. [PS2] Elvandia Story (Spike)
36./33. [NDS] Pokémon Diamond (Pokemon)
37./36. [NDS] Kanji Brain Test 2M (IE Institute)
38./38. [NDS] Kanji Test (Rocket Co.)
39./29. [PS2] Kingdom Hearts II: Final Mix+ (Square-Enix)
40./27. [PSP] Gundam SEED Alliance vs. ZAFT Portable (Bandai-Namco)
41./39. [NDS] Pokémon Pearl (Pokemon)
42./31. [PSP] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball Portable 2 (Konami)
43./00. [PS2] Shinkyoku Soukai Polyphonica (Prototype)
44./37. [NDS] Super Robot Wars W (Banpresto)
45./00. [NDS] Tetris DS (Nintendo)
46./34. [NDS] DS Kageyama Method Electronic Kanji Drills (Shogakukan)
47./35. [NDS] Tamagotchi's Splendid Rainbow-venture (Bandai-Namco)
48./48. [WII] Wario Ware Smooth Moves (Nintendo)
49./40. [NDS] Crayon Shin-chan DS: Arashi wo Sakebunutte Crayon Daisakusen! (Banpresto)
50./12. [NDS] Atelier Lise: The Alchemist of Orudôru (Gust)
NDS - 29
PS2 - 8
WII - 6
PSP - 5
360 - 2
GBA = 0 GBA + 495 SP + 630 Micro
NDS = 92 DS + 255,971 Lite
32./16. [PS2] Musou Orochi (Koei)
33./00. [PSP] Everyone's Map 2 (Zenrin)
34./26. [NDS] Dragon Quest Monsters Joker (Square-Enix)
35./00. [PS2] Elvandia Story (Spike)
36./33. [NDS] Pokémon Diamond (Pokemon)
37./36. [NDS] Kanji Brain Test 2M (IE Institute)
38./38. [NDS] Kanji Test (Rocket Co.)
39./29. [PS2] Kingdom Hearts II: Final Mix+ (Square-Enix)
40./27. [PSP] Gundam SEED Alliance vs. ZAFT Portable (Bandai-Namco)
41./39. [NDS] Pokémon Pearl (Pokemon)
42./31. [PSP] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball Portable 2 (Konami)
43./00. [PS2] Shinkyoku Soukai Polyphonica (Prototype)
44./37. [NDS] Super Robot Wars W (Banpresto)
45./00. [NDS] Tetris DS (Nintendo)
46./34. [NDS] DS Kageyama Method Electronic Kanji Drills (Shogakukan)
47./35. [NDS] Tamagotchi's Splendid Rainbow-venture (Bandai-Namco)
48./48. [WII] Wario Ware Smooth Moves (Nintendo)
49./40. [NDS] Crayon Shin-chan DS: Arashi wo Sakebunutte Crayon Daisakusen! (Banpresto)
50./12. [NDS] Atelier Lise: The Alchemist of Orudôru (Gust)
NDS - 29
PS2 - 8
WII - 6
PSP - 5
360 - 2
Code:
Hardware - This Week | Last Week | YTD | LTD
1. NDS - 256,063 | 172,440 | 2,603,200 | 16,608,879
2. WII - 102,522 | 77,913 | 1,350,852 | 2,270,495
3. PSP - 33,860 | 29,459 | 804,223 | 5,336,352
4. PS3 - 12,791 | 11,000 | 404,082 | 861,640
5. PS2 - 12,584 | 11,398 | 309,789 | 20,464,648
6. 360 - 3,162 | 2,307 | 90,345 | 355,047
7. GBA - 1,125 | 1,364 | 34,654 | 15,332,733
8. NGC - 167 | 266 | 6,369 | 4,175,837NDS = 92 DS + 255,971 Lite
AzureNightmare
Banned
holy shit
Barf_the_Mog
powerless or are they? o_O
bmf said:
PS3 feeling the Madden bump.