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[duckroll]

Whether Ninokuni sells a million or not will have less to do with any Ghibli connection, and a lot more to do with the word of mouth from the people who initially buy the game. It will depend on how the book is received and if it hinders or enhances the game's playability. It will also depend on whether the community features of the game catches on, or gets ignored.

 

[Grimmy]

Whether Ninokuni sells a million or not will have less to do with any Ghibli connection, and a lot more to do with the word of mouth from the people who initially buy the game. It will depend on how the book is received and if it hinders or enhances the game's playability. It will also depend on whether the community features of the game catches on, or gets ignored.

Which is true. The price point may make them hesitate at first, but if the word of mouth is good then sales will catch on.

 

[Chris1964]

Predictions:

[NDS] Mario Vs. Donkey Kong: Miniland Mayhem (Nintendo) - 56.789
[NDS] Momotaro Railway: World (Hudson) - 43.210
[NDS] A Penguin's Troubles: The World (Konami) - 23.456
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom) - 2.109.876
[PSP] Hardware combined (3000, Go, MH LE) - 210.987
[PSP] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes Os (Bandai Namco) - 45.678
[WII] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes Os (Bandai Namco) - 34.567
[WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii 3 (Bandai Namco) - 32.109
[PS3] Tales of Graces F (Bandai Namco) - 210.987

 

[Orgen]

Predictions:

[NDS] Mario Vs. Donkey Kong: Miniland Mayhem (Nintendo) - 64.000
[NDS] Momotaro Railway: World (Hudson) - 58.000
[NDS] A Penguin's Troubles: The World (Konami) - 31.000
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom) - 1.790.000
[PSP] Hardware combined (3000, Go, MH LE) - 182.000
[PSP] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes Os (Bandai Namco) - 28.000
[WII] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes Os (Bandai Namco) - 22.000
[WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii 3 (Bandai Namco) - 38.000
[PS3] Tales of Graces F (Bandai Namco) - 198.000

 

[onken]

Le predictions

[NDS] Mario Vs. Donkey Kong: Miniland Mayhem (Nintendo) - 70k
[NDS] Momotaro Railway: World (Hudson) - 25k
[NDS] A Penguin's Troubles: The World (Konami) - 33k
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom) - 2.05m
[PSP] Hardware combined (3000, Go, MH LE) - 180k
[PSP] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes Os (Bandai Namco) - 45k
[WII] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes Os (Bandai Namco) - 20k
[WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii 3 (Bandai Namco) - 20k
[PS3] Tales of Graces F (Bandai Namco) - 190k

 

[duckroll]

I'm afraid to make predictions right now. I think I'll put them up tomorrow. So many titles...

 

[onken]

I'm afraid to make predictions right now. I think I'll put them up tomorrow. So many titles...

Just do it you big girl.

 

[kswiston]

I haven't really been following Japanese sales that closely for the last year, but why the extremely high predictions for MHP3? I see a lot of you are predicting an opening 2-3 times what the last PSP game did. Is there some indication that this game is going to be much that much bigger out the gate than Freedom Unite/Portable 2G?

 

[Chris1964]

I haven't really been following Japanese sales that closely for the last year, but why the extremely high predictions for MHP3? I see a lot of you are predicting an opening 2-3 times what the last PSP game did. Is there some indication that this game is going to be much that much bigger out the gate than Freedom Unite/Portable 2G?

Bigger first shipment with potential restock + December -> bigger opening

 

[AranhaHunter]

[PS3] Gran Turismo 5 (SCE) - 500.000 (first print edition 80% of the shipment)

Might be a silly question, but what does first print edition mean?

 

[farnham]

Might be a silly question, but what does first print edition mean?

maybe its a "anyone who buys that edition will be known as the super fan!" edition ?

japanese game companies often do such things.

 

[BishopLamont]

Yeah isn't that similiar to how comics work? First edition retains more value.

 

[Spiegel]

First print includes an Apex book

 

[gogogow]

maybe its a "anyone who buys that edition will be known as the super fan!" edition ?

japanese game companies often do such things.

Collector's Edition, which includes the Apex book.
The Japanese "first print" is almost the same as the "western" limited edition/collector's edition/special edition. Though they also have Limited Editions/CEs.
It varies per product with what you get as a special bonus.
With Japanese CDs: the CD can have a special picture printed on the disc (officially called a "Picture Disc" in Japan, a typical Sony Music Japan thing), or the CD comes housed in a slipcase, an extra DVD, a special booklet with more pages etc.

And yes, they definitely have more value.

 

[Chris1964]

Media Create

{22/05/06 - 31/10/10} 0001. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) {25/05/06} - 899.518 / 6.007.850

Second single SKU to go over 6 million after the original Super Mario Bros.

 

[duckroll]

So Chris...

Persona 2 Innocent Sin (PSP) - 3rd March 2011, 6279yen
Zettai Zetsumei Toshi 4 (PS3) - 10th March 2011, 7140yen

Early March releases getting announced. I told you so.

 

[farnham]

Nintendo needs to get out a nother New super mario bros. that will solve every dire situation they are in it seems

 

[u_neek]

So Chris...
Zettai Zetsumei Toshi 4 (PS3) - 10th March 2011, 7140yen

Really looking forward to this one even though I haven't played the other games in the series - according to Andriasang there'll be a demo out soon.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

So Chris...

Persona 2 Innocent Sin (PSP) - 3rd March 2011, 6279yen
Zettai Zetsumei Toshi 4 (PS3) - 10th March 2011, 7140yen

Early March releases getting announced. I told you so.

And another february (3rd) release with Macross Triangle Frontier for PSP. Very good for Irem to miss super-crowded 24th February.

PD: Not sure if Way of the Samurai 4 was scheduled already for Feb 17th, but that too.

 

[Chris1964]

New dates

[PSP] Macross: Triangle Frontier (Bandai Namco) {03/02/11}

[PS3] Way of the Samurai 4 (Spike) {17/02/11}

[PSP] SD Gundam G Generation: World (Bandai Namco) {24/02/11}
[WII] SD Gundam G Generation: World (Bandai Namco) {24/02/11}

[PSP] Persona 2: Innocent Sin (Atlus Co.) {03/03/11}

[PS3] Disaster Report 4: Summer Memories (Irem) {10/03/11}

 

[duckroll]

Okay time to do this.


Predictions:
[NDS] Mario Vs. Donkey Kong: Miniland Mayhem (Nintendo) - 43,624
[NDS] Momotaro Railway: World (Hudson) - 48,825
[NDS] A Penguin's Troubles: The World (Konami) - 55,100
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom) - 1,873,587
[PSP] Hardware combined (3000, Go, MH LE) - 256,537
[PSP] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes Os (Bandai Namco) - 54,864
[WII] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes Os (Bandai Namco) - 38,469
[WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii 3 (Bandai Namco) - 28,468
[PS3] Tales of Graces F (Bandai Namco) - 256,618

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

Predictions:
[NDS] Mario Vs. Donkey Kong: Miniland Mayhem (Nintendo) - 40k
[NDS] Momotaro Railway: World (Hudson) - 45k
[NDS] A Penguin's Troubles: The World (Konami) - 36k
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom) - 2.0M
[PSP] Hardware combined (3000, Go, MH LE) - 230k
[PSP] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes Os (Bandai Namco) - 50k
[WII] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes Os (Bandai Namco) - 35k
[WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii 3 (Bandai Namco) - 32k
[PS3] Tales of Graces F (Bandai Namco) - 210k

 

[Chris1964]

Azalyn first week expectations

[PS3] Gran Turismo 5 (SCE) {25/11/10} - 350.000

[NDS] Super Robot Wars L (Bandai Namco) {25/11/10} - very strong sellthrough
[NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 13 (Konami) {25/11/10} - stronger than previous entry
[PSP] Dangan-Ronpa (Spike) {25/11/10} - not very strong sales

Next thread will be be very funny one way or the other.

 

[dolemite]

350k would be piss poor for GT5 in Japan.

 

[duckroll]

350k would be piss poor for GT5 in Japan.

I think I've been one of the most vocal in recent years of how I felt GT5 was going to really underperform in Japan, and struggle to sell even a million. I've been saying the racing genre on a whole in Japan is on serious decline, and GT doesn't mean as much as it did in the PS2 era anymore. I've been getting shit for it in MC threads for YEARS now.

 

[Chris1964]

I expect a specific member to post at next week's thread either GT5 underperformed or not. Me or him will eat crow for this game.

 

[KingDizzi]

Weak GT5 numbers, bleh. It just about beat GT4 sales in the UK and it was released in November not March as GT4 was, lets not even start talking about how bad the NA sales would be. Everyone was pretty aware that racing games don't sell well besides a few exceptions, it seems the ONLY exception is Mario Kart ___

I expect a specific member to post at next week's thread either GT5 underperformed or not. Me or him will eat crow for this game.

I can already see this is the highlight of your day.

Spoiler

I'm just mad you and 99% of other people were right

 

[Chris1964]

Just don't start taking this number as actual sales. It is an estimate from a Japanese retailer who has good connections with whole salers and his predictions are usually correct.

 

[cvxfreak]

Yeah, GT5 did not feel like a blockbuster launch. It just felt like a big game came out. It definitely felt odd given how this game had been put on a pedestal for so many years.

 

[KingDizzi]

Do you have any of the retailers past predictions, also does this also include bundle sales? Legs matter for GT games but much less so in Japan, if it has done 350k first week then lifetime sales of 1 million are impossible. Gotta admit I was expecting 1 million or so lifetime, while prologue sales were inflated through pack ins 740k copies were still shipped. Aw well if it snows today that makes up for this x1000.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Do you have any of the retailers past predictions, also does this also include bundle sales? Legs matter for GT games but much less so in Japan, if it has done 350k first week then lifetime sales of 1 million are impossible. Gotta admit I was expecting 1 million or so lifetime, while prologue sales were inflated through pack ins 740k copies were still shipped. Aw well if it snows today that makes up for this x1000.

Important thing to note: most retailer blogs were stating that a lot of people weren't even aware the game was out(thanks to the games weird delays/ last minute switches). So longer legs then normal, for a ps3 game, are expected.

Also: In relative terms(move) Kinect didn't do so terrible! Higher price, 1/5th the install base, 2 players in a typical Japanese apartment is basically impossible.
(Until you factor in the information that Apparently Foreign customers were requesting as many as 2000 units from one single online store)

 

[BishopLamont]

I expect a specific member to post at next week's thread either GT5 underperformed or not. Me or him will eat crow for this game.

What's your predictions on the game?

 

[The_lascar]

Predictions:

[NDS] Mario Vs. Donkey Kong: Miniland Mayhem (Nintendo) - 60k
[NDS] Momotaro Railway: World (Hudson) - 55k
[NDS] A Penguin's Troubles: The World (Konami) - 35k
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom) - 1 900k
[PSP] Hardware combined (3000, Go, MH LE) - 200k
[PSP] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes Os (Bandai Namco) - 30k
[WII] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes Os (Bandai Namco) - 15k
[WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii 3 (Bandai Namco) - 30k
[PS3] Tales of Graces F (Bandai Namco) - 150k

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Also: In relative terms(move) Kinect didn't do so terrible! Higher price, 1/5th the install base, 2 players in a typical Japanese apartment is basically impossible.
(Until you factor in the information that Apparently Foreign customers were requesting as many as 2000 units from one single online store)

Holy shit! :lol

Don Mattrick shops at PlayAsia confirmed ;-)

 

[Chris1964]

What's your predictions on the game?

It's not my prediction that is important but his.

Do you have any of the retailers past predictions, also does this also include bundle sales? Legs matter for GT games but much less so in Japan, if it has done 350k first week then lifetime sales of 1 million are impossible. Gotta admit I was expecting 1 million or so lifetime, while prologue sales were inflated through pack ins 740k copies were still shipped. Aw well if it snows today that makes up for this x1000.

Like I said he is usually correct because he has a good picture of Japanese market. The search doesn't find everything but these are some estimates he has made. Everything is posted in these threads.

One Piece: Gigant Battle - 100k

K-On! After School Live!! - 150k 60% sell-through
Eiyuu Densetsu: Zero no - 60% sell-through 80-100k
Dead Rising 2 60-70% sell through. 120-150k(X-box 360 30-40% of that)
Okamiden 50% sell-through 70-90K

Kirby's Epic Yarn > 100k
Lord of Arcana ~ 100k

Vanquish - 60k

He doesn't mention if the number for Gran Turismo includes bundles, but more possible is it does.

 

[onken]

That guy is usually bang on so final numbers will be close to that no doubt, which is to say pretty damn disappointing.

 

[Zoe]

Collector's Edition, which includes the Apex book.
The Japanese "first print" is almost the same as the "western" limited edition/collector's edition/special edition. Though they also have Limited Editions/CEs.
It varies per product with what you get as a special bonus.
With Japanese CDs: the CD can have a special picture printed on the disc (officially called a "Picture Disc" in Japan, a typical Sony Music Japan thing), or the CD comes housed in a slipcase, an extra DVD, a special booklet with more pages etc.

And yes, they definitely have more value.

It's not really the same as collector's/limited edition. Those do exist in Japan and have separate SKU's and are priced differently. First-press will have the same SKU as subsequent presses as well as the same price. It's really time sensitive, and in the case of some really popular items, you must pre-order.

 

[vicissitudes]

That guy is usually bang on so final numbers will be close to that no doubt, which is to say pretty damn disappointing.

350k would be piss poor for GT5 in Japan.

Gran Turismo games do not sell like other blockbuster games. Let's not forget GT5 Prologue sold ~110k its first week and went on to sell ~500k in Japan. 350k would be a great number, more than tripling GT5 Prologue's opening, which is quite a feat when you realize the jump from GT4 Prologue to GT4 was ~700k to ~1m (total sales).

I think I've been one of the most vocal in recent years of how I felt GT5 was going to really underperform in Japan, and struggle to sell even a million. I've been saying the racing genre on a whole in Japan is on serious decline, and GT doesn't mean as much as it did in the PS2 era anymore. I've been getting shit for it in MC threads for YEARS now.

I remember that and I still say GT5 will definitely sell over a million, if barely.

 

[Road]

Gran Turismo games do not sell like other blockbuster games. Let's not forget GT5 Prologue sold ~110k its first week and went on to sell ~500k in Japan. 350k would be a great number, more than tripling GT5 Prologue's opening, which is quite a feat when you realize the jump from GT4 Prologue to GT4 was ~700k to ~1m (total sales).

How do you call it? Twist? Twirl? Rotation? Whirl? I can't remember.

 

[Chris1964]

Gran Turismo games do not sell like other blockbuster games. Let's not forget GT5 Prologue sold ~110k its first week and went on to sell ~500k in Japan. 350k would be a great number, more than tripling GT5 Prologue's opening, which is quite a feat when you realize the jump from GT4 Prologue to GT4 was ~700k to ~1m (total sales).

I remember that and I still say GT5 will definitely sell over a million, if barely.

With <400k opening the possibilties for GT5 selling 1 million are extremely low.

 

[vicissitudes]

With <400k opening the possibilties for GT5 selling 1 million are extremely low.

I think with bundles and re-releases it will easily do it. Will probably take a long time to get there though (at least a year).

 

[Road]

Dengeki Sales, Nov 15 - 21, 2010:

01. / 00. [PS3] Call of Duty: Black Ops (Subtitled Edition) (Square Enix) - 125,213 / 125,213
02. / 00. [NDS] Super Fossil Fighters (Nintendo) - 45,606 / 45,606
03. / 04. [WII] Super Mario All-Stars: Limited Edition (Nintendo) - 40,960 / 559,709
04. / 00. [PSP] Pro Evolution Soccer 2011 (Konami) - 37,867 / 37,867
05. / 01. [PSP] Tactics Ogre: Let Us Cling Together (Square Enix) - 36,771 / 199,827
06. / 00. [360] Call of Duty: Black Ops (Subtitled Edition) (Square Enix) - 30,662 / 30,662
07. / 03. [NDS] Tongari Boushi to Mahou no Omise (Konami) - 24,226 / 69,306
08. / 00. [PS3] Agarest Senki 2 (Compile Heart) - 21,256 / 21,256
09. / 07. [NDS] Pokemon Black (Pokemon) - 19,724 / 2,314,806
10. / 05. [PSP] God Eater Burst (Bandai Namco) - 18,706 / 339,464
11. / 08. [NDS] Pokemon White (Pokemon) - 17,406 / 2,133,564
12. / 00. [PS3] Gekiatsu!! Pachi Game Tamashi: CR Evangelion - Hajimari no Fukuin (Fields) - 17,360 / 17,360
13. / 06. [PS3] Pro Evolution Soccer 2011 (Konami) - 17,106 / 327,641
14. / 00. [PS2] Pro Evolution Soccer 2011 (Konami) - 16,360 / 16,360
15. / 00. [PSP] Criminal Girls (Nippon Ichi Software) - 15,669 / 15,669
16. / 09. [WII] Wii Party (Nintendo) - 14,460 / 1,178,999
17. / 02. [PS3] Dragon Ball: Raging Blast 2 (Bandai Namco) - 12,628 / 61,891
18. / 10. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo) - 12,047 / 2,008,892
19. / 11. [WII] Kirby's Epic Yarn (Nintendo) - 10,394 / 200,421
20. / 00. [PSP] Hisshou Pachinko Pachislot Kouryaku Series Portable Vol. 2: CR Evangelion - Hajimari no Fukuin (D3 Publisher) - 7,458 / 7,458

00. / 00. [360] DanceMasters (Konami) - 7,000 / 7,000



Other software (first week / LTD):
2008-04 [NDS] Fossil Fighters (Nintendo) - 38,000 / 259,000



1) Sell-through
- [PS3] Call of Duty: Black Ops (Subtitled Edition) ~80%
- [360] Call of Duty: Black Ops (Subtitled Edition) ~80%
- [NDS] Super Fossil Fighters ~40%


2) Kinect sales: 26,000; ~80% stand-alone version; ~40% sell-through.


3) New PSP models: 94,000 units sold (?).

Hardware |  This Week |  Last Week |    YTD     |    LTD
------------------------------------------------------------
PSP      |     96,282 |     39,628 |  2,008,444 | 15,397,836
NDS      |     37,402 |     32,243 |  2,318,454 | 31,283,159
WII      |     26,575 |     39,312 |  1,316,557 | 10,861,993
PS3      |     25,868 |     20,727 |  1,326,530 |  5,811,228
360      |     	6,474 |      2,195 |    214,701 |  1,423,356
PS2      |     	1,043 |      1,107 |     	| 	
------------------------------------------------------------
Total    |    193,644 |    135,212 |

http://ascii.jp/elem/000/000/572/572471/
http://news.dengeki.com/elem/000/000/323/323916/

Nov 08 - 14, 2010
Nov 01 - 07, 2010
Oct 25 - 31, 2010
Oct 18 - 24, 2010
Oct 11 - 17, 2010
Oct 04 - 10, 2010

 

[apana]

When is Epic Mickey releasing?

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

Epic Mickey's release date hasn't been announced, but interesting thing about it: it has a rather high chance of being distributed by square

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Predictions
[NDS] Mario Vs. Donkey Kong: Miniland Mayhem (Nintendo) - 62k
[NDS] Momotaro Railway: World (Hudson) - 48k
[NDS] A Penguin's Troubles: The World (Konami) - 20k
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom) - 2487k
[PSP] Hardware combined (3000, Go, MH LE) - 267k
[PSP] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes Os (Bandai Namco) - 47k
[WII] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes Os (Bandai Namco) - 32k
[WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii 3 (Bandai Namco) - 16k
[PS3] Tales of Graces F (Bandai Namco) - 247k

10h 35min till deadline, check it here:
Countdown to Tuesday, 30 November 2010, 23:00:00 (UTC/GMT time) (that is 11PM GMT / 8AM Japan / 6PM US EST / 5PM CST / 3PM PST)

 

[Road]

Prediction League (29/11-05/12)

[NDS] Mario Vs. Donkey Kong: Miniland Mayhem (Nintendo) - 66,666
[NDS] Momotaro Railway: World (Hudson) - 44,444
[NDS] A Penguin's Troubles: The World (Konami) - 33,333
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom) - 1,999,999
[PSP] Hardware combined (3000, Go, MH LE) - 199,999
[PSP] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes Os (Bandai Namco) - 33,333
[WII] Kamen Rider: Climax Heroes Os (Bandai Namco) - 22,222
[WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii 3 (Bandai Namco) - 22,222
[PS3] Tales of Graces F (Bandai Namco) - 199,999

 

[Spiegel]

It begins

 

[cvxfreak]

Shibuya is so crowded that that's how it normally looks! :lol

Spoiler

It begins :O

By the way, NSMB Wii crosses 4 million on Famitsu's watch: http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2010/11/30/new_super_mario_four_million/

 

[Kenka]

Great ! So we officially have 10 millions of NSMB on both Wii and DS in the wild in Japan if we mix sources.

Does Media Create count NSMB Wii as a 4M-seller too ?

 

[onken]

It begins

They're queuing already? It's not out until tomorrow night :lol

e~ no apparently it's out first thing, wednesdays for the win.