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Seems like like they're remaking the first game with full 3D models having the same quality than current mainline games (animations seem a bit stiff though)
Pachislot always strikes me as a way to make good use of older IP, using the first entry of the series released 15 years ago clearly seems to point that way too.
Smiles and Cries
Member
what is the next software title in Japan for Switch and when?
Minna de Wai~Wai~ Spelunker on April 20.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
Oof that is a little while.
Late April and May should be decent right?
Japan needs to get some announcements out there.
Smiles and Cries
Member
ouch thats a long time
04/20 - Minna de Wai~Wai~ Spelunker
04/28 - Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
05/26 - Street Fighter II The Final Challengers
06/01 - Seiken Densetsu Collecton
06/29 - Lego City Undercover
Spring: Arms, Summer: Splatoon2
frankie_baby
Member
2 million + for mario kart 150k for sf2 80k for mana
Is this the new 60k for Disgaea 5? Trying to outdo Mlp90?
frankie_baby
Member
Which is the one you find so outlandish?
frankie_baby
Member
Havent you heard though switch owners have nothing else to buy
hope /s wasnt necessary but here it is just incase
OfficerRaichu15
Member
I'm thinking 25k myself.
Too high or too low?
It will be interesting to see how well switch holds before Mk8D. It seems to still be selling out as fast as it hits shelves, if it keeps that up until MK, I don't think it will see a large drop this year in Japan.
People have convinced me that Splatoon will end up a July title, if that's the case, Switch should be fine through to next year. A good idea would be pokemon in early next year.
People have convinced me that Splatoon will end up a July title, if that's the case, Switch should be fine through to next year. A good idea would be pokemon in early next year.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
Pokémon will hit holidays, if that production of 16 million is correct then its releasing this year.
Shikamaru Ninja
任天å ã® å¿è
How well do you think a single sku Pokemon port/derivative of sun and moon will sell on the Switch? Are your positing it as the ultimate catalyst?
test_account
XP-39C²
2m+ for Mario Kart 8 seems really high to me. Mario Kart 7 is currently at 2.7 million, brand new game (as in, not a port) and on 3DS. Eventhough Switch is the 3DS successor and many people dropped MK8, still seems high. 150k for SF2 also seems high considering the price, 5k yen.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Switch will have a strong holiday Pokémon or not that much is absolutely certain. Even the Wii U had comparatively strong holidays and that thing sold 10k and below all year long. An exclusive pokemon if true even if it's just a third version should be able to push it to have a very strong holiday.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
Depending on the Switch user base will much lower than Pokémon I use to be releasing on,
I'm gonna say holidays if it is indeed true.
I'm saying 765k-1.3 million first week(Japan)on Switch.
Hope it's true who knows it could not happen lol.
frankie_baby
Member
Anecdotal and wrong country but i dont think being a port will harm it one bit, every single Wii U owner i know bought mk8 and now every switch owner i know (of which the 2 groups significantly overlap) is planning on getting mk8d
All of them. SF2 isn't going to move 150k units
Shikamaru Ninja
任天å ã® å¿è
That's an insane attach rate given the amount of consoles available by then. Animal Crossing New Leaf is the best selling Japanese game and I don't think even that game could do that.
test_account
XP-39C²
Well, hard to say. I think many people are done with the game. The strong card it has is that many people skipped MK8 compared to what other Mario Kart games can sell.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
Well this is with me assuming Splatoon 2 and MK8D push the Switch hard.
Who knows(maybe it could be 300k-500k?)
Switch Stock Situation (March 31th)
Amazon.jp reopened orders, but they're closed again, just a few moments later.
Bic Camera had raffle units (lottery) today, and will have two more raffle shipments tomorrow April 1st. The day after tomorrow, April 2nd, Sofmap (same chain as Bic Camera) will have raffle units as well.
https://gamewith.jp/gamedb/article/show/43620?
Amazon.jp reopened orders, but they're closed again, just a few moments later.
Bic Camera had raffle units (lottery) today, and will have two more raffle shipments tomorrow April 1st. The day after tomorrow, April 2nd, Sofmap (same chain as Bic Camera) will have raffle units as well.
https://gamewith.jp/gamedb/article/show/43620?
OfficerRaichu15
Member
Do you think this demand could last consistently until Mario Kart(50-70k range maybe)?
frankie_baby
Member
That's the one I'm most certain of, its street fighter fucking 2 on a cartridge on a portable 2 player system, they couldve priced it better but it'll sell (small amounts yeah) for a long time, may take a while but it'll get there, as i said earlier this aint aimed at the hardcore fighting crowd
I feel some of you are way too bullish on MK8D performing well. I think it's going to sell fine but I'm still skeptical about it hitting regular mario kart numbers.
SF2 is not selling 150k in Japan, fighting game have gone down massively in popularity and a ridiculously expensive HD port isn't going to sell anywhere close to that amount.
SF2 is not selling 150k in Japan, fighting game have gone down massively in popularity and a ridiculously expensive HD port isn't going to sell anywhere close to that amount.
frankie_baby
Member
Its launch numbers will be down simply due to the low switch base but long term it will sell
OfficerRaichu15
Member
I agree with SF2 at most I predict 50k lifetime on Switch.
However with Mario Kart it'll sell just as well as the original at least due to the portability factor plus expanded multiplayer options imo.
If Switch is at 3m at holidays that's not an insane attach rate for a Pokemon game.
I'm not even sure most people will realize MK8DX is a port.
Shikamaru Ninja
任天å ã® å¿è
Say we extrapolate data from previous single sku year after derivatives like Pokemon Yellow or Pokemon Crystal rather than premiere generation multi sku Pokemons.
OfficerRaichu15
Member
Honestly I think if Game Freak updates the games textures and makes it 1080p with AA that'll be big for the game.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Even those would be poor comparisons this is a fairly unique scenario. Nintendo handhelds traditionally have backwards compatibility which is why Gamefreak never gave a shit about releasing on the new handheld anytime soon as they could essentially sell to both platforms simulataneous. This would be the first time if the rumour is correct a Nintendo handheld will have a properly ported Pokemon game fairly early in it's life style maybe even exclusive to it making it an early primary driver rather than a later motherload.
Also means this would be one of the lowest install bases it's launched in.
So we're back at raffles for new units, heh?
Principate
Saint Titanfall
The purchasing guy from GEO seems to think so with readily available stock from mid-May but shortages until then.
thestopsign
Member
The single SKUs are typically launched towards the end of generations, or at least after the true mainline games come out already, so there is no straight comparison to be had here. There is precedent for a game like Pokemon having a large launch week even with a lower install base. Look at Final Fantasy XIII on PS3:
01. / 00. [PS3] Final Fantasy XIII (Square Enix) - 1.501.964 / NEW
PS3 | 237.086 | 75.086 | 1.654.012 | 4.276.480
That had an attach ratio of 35% or so, a large launch, and a relatively small base to work with. It isn't really apples to apples, but it is an example.
If the Switch has ~3 million by the time Pokemon launches in November/December, it could sell a million first week easy. Games like Animal Crossing aren't typically as front loaded as Pokemon. Pokemon has great legs, but Animal Crossing is on another level.
frankie_baby
Member
So shipments coming in (and going out) thick and fast could we similar numbers again this week
I'm going to guess they will be back to 50K-60K range, which if that holds until Mario Kart would I believe show the best hold for a new system going back to the Wii.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
It would be pretty impressive considering the price and the current market with increased competition.
LordRaptor
Member
If MK8 had released on a more succesful platform I could see it having a lot of fatigue market wise, but coming from Wii U doesn't seem like a great deal to me, plus MK8 Deluxe will have some extra bonus points.-
* Release timing is really nice being 4 weeks away trailig after Zelda.
* It's going to be there at the end of the year for a predictble really strong year 1 holiday season.
* Quantum leap in portable Mario Kart both quality wise and local multiplayer.
I don't know what numbers will achieve but I'm convinced it's going to perform really, really strong on Switch.
frankie_baby
Member
I'm bullish think another 80k-ish this week just to get as much stock out before the end of the FY then maybe down again to 50k for a few weeks til another big week for mario kart's release
darkstar0155
Member
If the switch keeps selling out up through MK8D, then too Splatoon 2, and into the holidays, Nintendo may just keep a pokemon on the back burner and wait until after the holidays and sales slow down to release it. Which is part of the reason they may not have announced it yet. Waiting to see when if/when sales start to slow down.
That's possible, but I think looking worldwide, there will probably be more need for a pokemon than in Japan to keep up sales. Japan can probably be carried by Splatoon and Super Mario into next year, but the west doesn't have as much to gain from a Splatoon release, so I think they will need a Pokémon or another blockbuster to reach the numbers proposed by WSJ.
I mean, there will be Mario, possibly Smash, and Skyrim as well.
Yep, this looks like what they are probably banking on. I think a bundle will be important too. There is a lot of Mario Kart and Smash gamers that passed on Wii U, Zelda DLC could also keep the title relevant for people unable to buy the system right now. E3 hype is the big unknown, if they sell switch to everyone in june with exciting new announcements, then I think they can do just fine.
On a side note, Splatoon sold more copies in America than Japan, so it's not like it was a sales dud.