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Media Create Sales: Week 3, 2013 (Jan 14 - Jan 20)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
*Numbers are from pixel counting, so it's like within +/-30k margin of error.
Whoa, look at that YOY software increase for PSV. Road to victory, baby! If these trends continue ...
Lord_Byron28
Member
While I don't think Wii U will be picking up support that the PS3 formally had. You forget that for the first year of the 3DS the PSP was crushing it and was getting a lot of major exclusive releases. Meanwhile 3DS was doing poorly and developers were pulling support/quietly cancelling projects.
I doubt that most Japanese 3rd parties will be eager to jump exclusively on PS4 for a while especially for their Japanese centric software. PS3 and especially PSV have been examples that there have been no advantages to support these systems in their first years instead of just waiting until they have a decent userbase while supporting already established systems in the meantime.
In PSVs case it is even clear that after more than a year that the 8 year old PSP is still the more viable system. Therefore it wouldn´t surprise me if the next Yakuza could be a PS3 title, which means PS4 would have to wait a little longer for a systemseller. Level5 weren´t very successful on PS3 and Ni no Kuni was a big financial disappointment, so I doubt they´ll be eager to support PS4 instead of handhelds in the next 1-2 years. FFXV and the new RE haven´t been announced for any system yet. While MGS5 seem to be also on last-gen systems, in other words you don´t necessarily need a new system to play it if it won´t be PS4 exclusive, instead you will see something similar to recent PSP+PSV releases.
I think you are disregarding this headstard prematurely. Think about it, a 10 months headstart has been more than enough to completely destroy PSVs first and likely second years, the successor of PSP that was by far more popular and successful than PS3. I think you are simplifying the situation in saying that it´s only due to MH, if you take a look at the best selling MH game that sold 3.5M and compare it with PSPs 20M userbase it´s obvious that it can´t be the only reason, because games like God Eater and Phantasy Star have been announced for PSV even after the MH on 3DS announcement.
Also I´m very interested to know which popular Japanese IPs are likely to release in PS4s first 3 months on market in your opinion. Because you need some big releases to counter Nintendos possible 2013 4.Q lineup (for example Mario Kart). If PS4 hasn´t a strong launchlineup from the getgo it could lead to another slow start, then it would be funny to still say that this wouldn´t have any consequences.
http://www.demongaze.jp/notice.pdf
Apologizing for lack of stock for Demon Gaze. Next shipment scheduled for Jan. 29th.
Related, they had put the wrong version of the game on PSN. It was corrected the same day, though.
Do you mean top 10 new IP for each year? I don't have Famitsu's official list. But you can search here on GAF for "famitsu top" and you'll find top 100 for each year and you can pick the new IPs. Or you can do the same by looking database file Chris1964 has in the opening post.
Apologizing for lack of stock for Demon Gaze. Next shipment scheduled for Jan. 29th.
Related, they had put the wrong version of the game on PSN. It was corrected the same day, though.
Do you mean top 10 new IP for each year? I don't have Famitsu's official list. But you can search here on GAF for "famitsu top" and you'll find top 100 for each year and you can pick the new IPs. Or you can do the same by looking database file Chris1964 has in the opening post.
H_Prestige
Banned
What is Nintendo doing with their headstart that would negate ps4's chances? You have to be specific. Launching early and then doing absolutely nothing in securing franchises is no advantage at all.
And I'm not even saying ps4 will do well over there. It depends on software support. If it gets similar support as ps3, then it will do fine. If 3DS continues to gobble up all the software, then it will bomb. But by the same token, so will the Wii U.
Don´t know why its getting ignored but it would be interesting to read what other users and you think PS4 could propably launch with in your opinion (including first 6 months if you want to) to compete against its rivals.
You can ignore the competition all you want but if it doesn´t sell well from the getgo especially the Japanese centric games you mentioned will be allocated elsewhere be it PS3, WiiU or handhelds. Bigger games like FF15 won´t release in its 1st year anyway and hasn´t been announced for any system yet anyway. Nintendos advantage besides ca. a probably 2M userbase by the end of the year, is their 1st party and 2nd party to fill the gap, while Sony wouldn´t be able to fill the gap on their own 1st and 2nd party efforts.
To make an example how easy it is to act according market changes, I want to mention Valkyrie Chronicles on PS3 that moved to Valkyrie Chronicles 2 and Valkyrie Chronicles 3 on PSP. Now keep in mind that publishers by now have experienced that Sony systems aren´t sure fire hits be it PS3 but more importantely PSV and you could understand that the wait and see approach regarding PS4 isn´t out of the question.
Further Nintendo managed to bind some resources from 3rd party developers like Platinum, Atlus and BNamco, resources that automatically means that can´t be used on PS4 projects in the meantime, while strenghening WiiUs lineup.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
I think the issue is you're being a bit premature in your what-can-they-do?-NOTHING analysis on Wii U. You like to draw the 3DS parallel, but the reality is things were looking pretty dire for 3DS in April/May 2011, with it quickly falling behind PSP in both hardware sales and 3rd party software announcements. Multiplatform
games also sold multiple times more in PSP around this time and there wasn't a whiff of Monster Hunter coming at all, in
fact MHP3rd had just been demoed on Vita a couple months earlier. 3DS actually shows how with a bit of urgency Nintendo can turn a failing platform around and really maximize a year's headstart to the fullest with a course correction. If anything the 3DS situation bodes well for Nintendo's capabilities, but even there the "emergency maneuvers" didn't occur until it'd been on shelves 5 months and the 3rd party deathblow (MH) came 3 months after that even. Wii U by comparison isn't even 2 months old.
H_Prestige
Banned
I don't why you aren't reading my posts. I'm not saying ps4 will have an amazing launch. I'm saying nintendo launching a year earlier has no impact on the matter, because they're not doing anything meaningful with the head start.
This is not true. There is nothing "strong" about Wii U's third party lineup. It is completely worthless. It is no different than the third party support Vita got at launch. It's B-tier shit at best.
3DS is a handheld. Wii U is a home console. Japan loves handhelds and it's not that big on home consoles anymore. Just because 3DS turned things around, doesn't mean Nintendo can save the Wii U. Iwata isn't a wizard.
The faster publishers put their games on new consoles, the faster they can build up a userbase. Most people won't want to buy new systems if there aren't compelling enough games for them. I think publishers have to take some risks with new systems if they want to build their new home for games at a faster pace since. Of course, some will still remain conservative and stick with old systems regardless.
Dragon Quest X and Monster Hunter TriG are far and above what the Vita had, or likely will ever have, in Japan. Quite the contrary, I find it hard to beleive the WiiU will be anything but at least a mild success in the east. Saying one is a handheld and the other is a console doesn't stop Nintendo from having the same tricks up it's sleeve with it's "Price cut, Mario, Mario, Zelda, Pokemon." Granted it won't make it a runaway success but I think it's a little delusional to think that the WiiU won't make something of itself.
This is factually incorrect.
test_account
XP-39C²
Thanks for the correction
That actually makes me wonder a bit more why it sold that much in 2012, because it means that it was released before 2012.What are you saying, Monster Hunter 3G and DQX are C-tier shit, not even B-tier, you mad?!?
Kacho
Gold Member
LOL For second there I didn't realize it was you. I was like WHAT?!
Two ports, even if those are DQ and MH games, aren't much better than Persona 4 or Project Diva, so I can see where H_Prestige is coming from.
Maybe WiiU will get some big announcements from third parties soon, but the announced and released third party list is beyond awful, with awful being the PSVita.
Maybe WiiU will get some big announcements from third parties soon, but the announced and released third party list is beyond awful, with awful being the PSVita.
This list of upcoming games is beyond terrible, no doubt, but the launch/ launch window lineup of MH 3G HD and DQX is a lot better than what came out for Vita during the same time period.
Sorry, I missed the word launch from his post. Carry on.
Still it would be interesting to know what the PS4 could possibly launch with in your opinion. Because regardless of how little Nintendo is taking advantage of the headstart in your opinion, a bad start will have consequences for PS4 in Japan.
@Soriku
I agree that you have to built a userbase first, but with the increasing developing costs it would be a risky thing to develope an exclusive title for an unproven system. PSV for example has been a big money sink for several publishers and in fact even Sega complained about the sales for Hatsune Miku (which is the best-seller with P4G on PSV in Japan). They won´t ignore other systems if they seem to be more lucrative be it PS3, WiiU or handhelds, I think it´s a reasonable thing to let other publishers take the risks first and jump on board when or if there actually is a decent userbase available. In the past when Sonys systems looked to be sure fire hits from the getgo (PS2), most publishers looked at the launch window as a chance to establish new franchises, something that isn´t possible with a slow start, which also happened to Sony systems be it PS3 and PSV. I think the wait and see approach will be taken by most, only niche publishers like Falcom and NipponIchhi may see an opportunity, due to their low budgets and probably sparse competition in the beginning.
michaelius
Banned
Reminds me of those milions x360 consoles MH Frontier sold when it released...
It's late port of DQ MMO game which didn't even move 1000k copies on 10 milions + Wii userbase.
How many people of those 300-400k still having subscription are supposed to drop 30k yens for slightly improved version ?
And MH is already out - you can check first page of this thread how well is pushes Wii U hardware.
so with only 2 months of no games for the Wii U we can all say that it's done for?
but we can assume automatically that the Wii U can't bounce back right? yeah, sure
Iwata said at the end of last weeks Nintendo Direct they would show 3rd party stuff later. Let's see what that brings before declaring support dead. I suspect things are at least a bit better than what they appear to be right now, but I've been wrong plenty of times before.
anon_mastermind
Member
Wii U is a handheld that you play at home. You can hook it up to the TV for multiplayer if you want.
This is how Nintendo should advertise the Wii U in Japan.
Kacho
Gold Member
Indeed. I think that would be the most reasonable approach. I don't think the state of third party support is as dire as some think it is.
Time will tell of course.
I'm hungry for the next batch of news. Anything after the fiscal results meeting that's coming up (I can't remember when exactly)? I'm expecting at least a 3DS focussed Nintendo Direct soon that details a little bit more about DQ7 before release (plus of course gets that Iwata Seal of Quality). I find it strange that this major title has had minimal exposure. Likewise - Layton, Band Bros. and others. Maybe they will amalgamate 3rd party Wii U news and new 3DS news into a new Direct?
MHTriG is at ca. 200k right now and by the end of the year likely between 300k-400k if not more, what released game on PSV managed to reach 300k+? DQX is very hard to predict but due to its nature of beeing an MMO it will be a game that will be around for years.
H_Prestige
Banned
You can't take the Wii U on a bus or train with you. It's still a home device that requires a TV.
Yeh i meant the top 10 best selling new IP for each year. Chris1964's database file seems to be MIA, so had a look at the Top 100 Famitsu 2011 thread - jeez there really aren't that many new IPs that have sold well in the last couple of years, huh?
this is all i could come up with, and some of these are contentious - Toriko & BRS are based on animes, AKB is AKB even though this seems to be their first video game, and Go Vacation is a pseudo-sequel to Wii Ski. 3 of them weren't even released in 2011, and yet with all this padding i still couldn't manage a top 10!
[WII] Just Dance Wii (Nintendo) {2011-10-13} - 427.874
[NDS] Ni no Kuni: Shikkoku no Madoushi (Level 5) {2010-12-09} - 237.132 / 569.443
[PS3] Catherine (Atlus) {2011-02-17} - 206.557
[WII] Go Vacation (Bandai Namco) {2011-10-20} - 180.802
[PSP] AKB1/48: Idol to Koishitara... (Bandai Namco) {2010-12-23} - 174.729 / 410.673
[WII] The Last Story (Nintendo) {2011-01-27} - 157.359
[PSP] Toriko: Gourmet Survival! (Bandai Namco) {2011-08-04} - 138.838
[PSP] Black Rock Shooter: The Game (Imageepoch) {2011-08-25} - 135.951
[NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) {2009-06-18} - 126.510 / 3.634.606
nintendo sucks at advertising
Exterminieren
Banned
I haven't played my Wii U while it's been connected to a TV for a month.
H_Prestige
Banned
It's not a problem with advertising. The Wii U is a home console. No way to lie about that.
You said you need a TV which is false, also your silence about the question about IPs that could launch with PS4 (or up to 6 months after) is pretty telling. Do you think it will have a bad start?
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
No one's saying the situations are identical, just that 3DS shows Nintendo can manage a short term course correction and take advantage of a year's head start. Just not as short term as you seem to be thinking Wii U should be adhering to and mischaracterizing 3DS as.
I've pointed this out before but the true implication of MH3U isn't what it is doing for Wii U now. It has cross play with the 3DS version, the last online MH saw an increase over the previous one and was close to a million. Capcom won't just give up on online MH. MH3 cross play and their decision to put MH3 on Wii rather than PS3 points to where the online MH4 will go. The franchise has favored Nintendo since MH3 and I don't think that will change now all of a sudden.
MH4 Online will hit some time after the 3DS version and it's clear where it will land.
MH4 Online will hit some time after the 3DS version and it's clear where it will land.
michaelius
Banned
To the Wii levels - extremely unlikely
To above Gamecube - possibly
This isn't 3DS vs Vita situation - there never was a chance that Sony handheld will reach >50% market share and even that optimistic 50/50 scenario was based on Nintendo arrogance keeping price at 250$ and MH being Vita exclusive. Also PSP never had userbase advantage and wasn't selling software like mad in west.
For a Japanise 3rd party - if you are aiming for high domestic and western sales - targeting PS4/nextbox/pc is safer bet.
If you want low budget game - there's always 3DS happily waiting for your Japan only games selling insane amount of software.
Also someone mentioned Nintnedo occupying Atlus resources blocking them from making next gen games - i want to ask that person what resources ?
Atlus released ONE PS3/X360 game this generation and there are rumors there might be second one in development about which we know even less than about Versus XIII
What resources? The developers that are working on Shin Megami Tensei X Fire Emblem for example, then all their developers that are working on handhelds won´t be able to develop for PS4 while they are busy and then the resources that likely are still working on a current gen game, likely won´t be able to develop for PS4 for quite some time.
Keep in mind that Persona 4, a PS2 game, released in 2008, well after PS3s launch.
There is definetely something in the works for WiiU from Atlus, that´s definetely a plus, but the most important thing is that this collaborations could strengthen their relationship with Nintendo. Also future projects don´t necesserily need to be exclusive to WiiU, it would be a enough to be multiplatform to gain profit and weaken PS4.
test_account
XP-39C²
It depends on what you're going to play though. All games doesnt support 100% off-screen play.
Thanks for the correction
Look at the release date. It contains the answers to all your questions ...
(BEST re-releases can often sell a small amount every week, so having more weeks to sell in 2012 than 2011 would push its total over, too.)
3DS isn't living up to the success of the DS either. And nobody was expecting either one to live up to their predecessors anyway.
The fate of a console isn't decided in the first two months. Wii U is selling poorly as it should, being expensive and with a limited library. Still three title are showing legs, software is already outperforming the other disaster platform and MH3U is just a port. There are proven franchises in the pipeline and the Wii U is still looking to outperform the GC. It already has much better 3rd party support than the GC, and most importantly earlier than both the GC and the Wii.
The Wii U headstart isn't just the past two months. It will have at least 10 months and by the time PS4 hits it will have enough releases and announced titles to keep its momentum against the new competing platforms.
Even just significant more % of multi-platform games coming would be good. First-party and Monster Hunter/Dragon Quest takes care of the "needs exclusives" for the Wii U, for the most part, so becoming a consistent multi-platform target is the major hurdle currently.
Yup. The bar for Nintendo in Japan in terms of 3rd party support is lower than for Sony because of how strong they are first party. Near parity would probably be enough.
test_account
XP-39C²
I see the release date now, thanks =)
Sure, but the original game is pretty old (2007), i guess that is mostly why it sticked out to me. It is also a western title, but i know that GTA is relatively popular in Japan as well.
metalslimer
Member
On the bright side for Nintendo it won't take much to beat the Wii's 3rd party support!
H_Prestige
Banned
What exactly did they manage with the 3DS? All they did was drop the price. The software was going to come regardless. Japan devs were already flocking to the system. Price was the only roadblock. Price isn't really the Wii U's problem. It's the product itself.
You're making Nintendo seem way more competent than they actually are.
MH and DQ are not taking care of anything. MH port is already out and it's not doing anything, as expected. DQX is a late port of a Wii MMO. Not really huge sales potential, regardless of the name. Unless you're thinking DQ as a franchise is locked down by the Wii U. Which would be some serious wishful thinking.
Last week showed a fundamental truth regardless of 3rd parties- Nintendo has the software to make a significant impact. Their 2nd half 2013 lineup could be very potent.
RumblingRosco
Member
This gives me the feeling that Nintendo's next portable system will just be the WiiU tablet controller with all of the WiiU console guts shrunk down to fit inside. And, once it launches, all the WiiU games that have off-screen play will already be ready to go and just need to be downloaded from the E-shop or whatever. After that, it's just as simple as using the same assets that will already be well-established for the WiiU to develop new games.
It's genius.