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[Haint]

See, Nintendo, this is what happens when you don't release anything of value for like 10 months.

Nintendo eventually fell to the same problem that third parties ran into on Wii. Failing to release worthwhile games for a long time causes core gamers, WHO WILL KEEP PLAYING GAMES WHETHER OR NOT YOU PUT THEM OUT, to abandon the platform for the places where the games are. Then when you DO release a great game, the audience has moved on and there's no one left to sell to.

This is why, if you have games that you can release and a large hole in the schedule, even if they're only traditionally for a niche audience, you need to release those games. There were essentially no Nintendo games of interest to the Nintendo core for A YEAR. Between Donkey Kong Returns and Skyward Sword, LITERALLY a year passed (in NA, at least.) November 21 to November 20. MAYBE you could count the Kirby game, but that only gives you an eleven month drought instead of a year. Meanwhile, they were sitting on games like Xenoblade, Last Story, or even things like Disaster or Regenleiv. Sure, it's likely none of those games set the world on fire, but you need something to keep gamers paying attention to your platform. Mindshare is 100% gone at this point, and it's poisoning the well for the WiiU.

Well they've probably got another whole year to face. The popular Wii U rumors seem to be for Fall or Winter release (potentially even the end of Nov). Not really sure what they're going to do in the console space with all that time. U will probably be plagued by shortages and low production making it even worse.

 

[TheNatural]

It's weird that nobody considers this is probably the longest a generation has lasted and that fatigue must be settling in. I think people are overreacting.

Not only that, but NPD fatigue. This thread went to the second page earlier, lol. A holiday thread with like nothing interesting about it, pretty crazy. January is going to be like a cemetery.

 

[LQX]

Man some of you really are going off the dramatic edge. Also look at the percentage which the console are down. Only one is in single digits. If anything the PS3 and maybe Wii numbers should be more alarming.

 

[Dalthien]

The home console industry isn't in some massive decline, it's just running out of people who haven't bought hardware already.

That's part of the problem though. Costs went way up this generation (for development), but the userbase is pretty much the same (actually even worse when factoring in how much longer this gen has lasted).

If we exclude Nintendo (since publishers certainly did - they bailed out big-time on the Cube, and they couldn't even bail out on Wii because they never showed up to begin with), then through the same time-frame:

PS2 (2000-2006) + XBox (2001-2006) ~ 51.2M
360 (2005-2011) + PS3 (2006-2011) ~ 52.6M


So 360+PS3 just finally pulled ahead this month. The problem with that is that the 360 had already been out for 2 holiday seasons and the PS3 was out for a holiday season already when we look at the PS2+XBox numbers. The only reason the PS3+360 numbers will show any growth at all from last gen is due to the generation itself lasting so much longer.

It looks like that 'core' home console userbase that publishers target hasn't really grown at all, yet costs keep rising higher and higher. Makes it pretty easy to see why there have been so many devs closed and so many losses on the balance sheets for pubs this gen. And it doesn't paint a rosy picture for a new gen with even higher costs, and the same old userbase to sell to.

 

[NemesisPrime]

So what do we think the next step in PS3's 10 year plan should be?

Sony cut the price in 2011 by $50, but sales are down significantly year over year:

1.21M in December 2010 (down 11% compared to December 2009)
~936K in December 2011 (down ~23% compared to December 2010)

A couple of Sony suits mentioned recently about targeting the female market a bit more, didn't they?

A pink PS3?

TBH I wouldn't expect Sony to invest a lot of time in the US market any more. It is lost... and the next gen is slowly creeping up. They will focus on EU and maybe on Vita.

 

[specialguy]

It's weird that nobody considers this is probably the longest a generation has lasted and that fatigue must be settling in. I think people are overreacting.

not only that, but so far it's a one month anomaly. everything was pretty gangbusters before that, at least ps360 hardware wise. november was huge.

granted the biggest month of the year.

now if it continues on in jan, feb, march, i'd say we can start declaring a trend.

here's something from another board to sort of illustrate

2010 nov dec combined
Xbox360 3.23m
PS3 1.74m
Wii 3.63m

2011
Xbox360 3.4m +5%
PS3 1.83m +5%
Wii 1.92 -47%

so really looking at it a different way only wii is tanking.

Sometimes tbh it makes me question the accuracy of NPD sometimes when we get these odd results that dont seem explainable, as well, and that nothing implied was coming. Just a tiny tiny bit.

 

[Mpl90]

Probably, it's just a combination of the crazyness of BF effecting indeed the possibility of sales in December, since the deals were so crazy in terms of prices that there was no need to wait for the last month of the year, and the age of the HD consoles, now reaching its heighest. For Wii, there's also to count the lack of...almost anything besides Zelda and JD3, and 360 being the main home console in USA, right now.

3DS escaped from this pattern for two reasons: it's new, and it had Mario Kart 7 this December.

 

[duk]

It's gonna be a LONGGGGGGGGGGG and TOUGHHHHHHHHHHHH year for Wii and PS3.

 

[bigtroyjon]

I was thinking about that story out of China about the 360 plant and workers being asked to be relocated or laid off with compensation(then the rumored suicide threat after that compensation was eliminated) and how it really fits in with whats going on. Factory probably got told to slow down manufacturing due to lower than anticipated demand and the huge backlog in the retail channel that there appears to be.

If there is another 360 revision in the pipeline, now would be a good time to transition the supply chain. Maybe we'll get another surprise E3 reveal/"it's on sale today" with a super slim, dd only box targeted towards people who want the media capabilities but don't care about disc games.

 

[cw_sasuke]

It's gonna be a LONGGGGGGGGGGG and TOUGHHHHHHHHHHHH year for Wii and PS3.

Price Drops are comin.

 

[sphinx]

It's gonna be a LONGGGGGGGGGGG and TOUGHHHHHHHHHHHH year for Wii and PS3.

Wii is on its way out and if DS is any reference, nintendo will kill whatever is left of it in 2012 and I think its about time.

it's like people are seeing an exhausted 92 year old who just got a diagnosis that he has probably a year left to live and react like is the most SHOCKING news ever.

I am no Wii apologist but it's just the life cycle of products, the cycle of one product killed a bit abruptly by its creator (as opposed to the PS2 case)

 

[TheNatural]

Price Drops are comin.

Maybe for PS3, but I doubt the Wii drops to $100 until Wii U comes out. I mean what's the point really?

Lets say it costs Nintendo $50 per Wii to manufacture. If they drop the Wii price to $100, they would be cutting their profit margin in half and have to sell twice as much Wii's to make as much money. Not very likely even with a drop. It's not about sales at this point - when Wii U comes out they will surely drop to $100 to clear the distribution channels and phase out the Wii.

 

[thuway]

It's gonna be a LONGGGGGGGGGGG and TOUGHHHHHHHHHHHH year for Wii and PS3.

Honestly, what is everyone expecting? North American data doesn't give us a full representation of Sony as a whole. The overseas market has been very good to them. Hopefully this will help Sony last until 2014 for the PS4.

 

[Gravijah]

Honestly, what is everyone expecting? North American data doesn't give us a full representation of Sony as a whole. The overseas market has been very good to them. Hopefully this will help Sony last until 2014 for the PS4.

i'm hoping they wait until 2030. 25 year plan, please!

 

[bigtroyjon]

i'm hoping they wait until 2030. 25 year plan, please!

April 1, 2029 is going to be amazing when TLG arrives in stores.

 

[Syphon Filter]

Ps3 already dropped why again so fast?

 

[Yagharek]

Wii is falling off a cliff sales wise

I guess Nintendo should just throw down the gauntlet to first party teams: send it out with a bang and let each team do a quick game development project with a young team of designers.

Go for quirky experimental stuff like the DS saw. Electroplankton, Ouendan type stuff. Small, cheap and use them as proof of concept type ideas for future games.

 

[sleepykyo]

It's gonna be a LONGGGGGGGGGGG and TOUGHHHHHHHHHHHH year for Wii and PS3.

It should be considering the Wii's successor is coming up.

 

[Jackano]

Yeah Zelda!

Americans biggest fans of Zelda? Skyward Sword is at 250k in France only, forget Retro Studios, give it to Ubi Soft!

Spoiler

no, keep it in Japan

 

[Rush2thestart]

Americans biggest fans of Zelda? Skyward Sword is at 250k in France only, forget Retro Studios, give it to Ubi Soft!

Spoiler

no, keep it in Japan

250k is a lot, France isnt a market comparable to US. In the US it has sold like 1 mil through Dec according to Nintendo.

 

[Conflict NZ]

New consoles needed ASAP.

 

[duk]

It should be considering the Wii's successor is coming up.

well since wii was almost as good as ps2, i would have thought a nice transition plan would be in place. sony kept the ps2 alive and selling well after ps3 was intro'd

 

[bigtroyjon]

So I guess my earlier post about the Chinese worker strike thing being related was correct. They are shutting down a 360 production line which tells me that sales were unexpectedly low and the supply channel is overstuffed.
Link

The dispute was set off after contract manufacturer Foxconn Technology Group announced it would close the assembly line for Microsoft Corp.'s Xbox 360 models at its plant in the central city of Wuhan and transfer the workers to other jobs, workers and Foxconn said Thursday.

Combined with the job postings looking for hardware engineers from the rumor thread, I'm starting to think all of the "no xbox anytime soon" stuff we have heard recently is just a smokescreen.

 

[sleepykyo]

well since wii was almost as good as ps2, i would have thought a nice transition plan would be in place. sony kept the ps2 alive and selling well after ps3 was intro'd

How much can Nintendo do? It was the 3rd parties that choose to ignore the Wii despite 4 years of Nintendomination (yes, I still like that word despite not having a Wii).

 

[miksar]

Where are 3DS numbers?

 

[antipode]

The real sign we are at the end of the generation is that number of posts in NPD threads are down a billion percent.

I can't believe it's the night of NPD Thursday and this thread is already halfway down the front page! And it seems like with Vita vs. 3DS... no-one really cares. I miss the scene.

I'm so excited for the console wars to start again.

 

[mrklaw]

That's part of the problem though. Costs went way up this generation (for development), but the userbase is pretty much the same (actually even worse when factoring in how much longer this gen has lasted).

If we exclude Nintendo (since publishers certainly did - they bailed out big-time on the Cube, and they couldn't even bail out on Wii because they never showed up to begin with), then through the same time-frame:

PS2 (2000-2006) + XBox (2001-2006) ~ 51.2M
360 (2005-2011) + PS3 (2006-2011) ~ 52.6M


So 360+PS3 just finally pulled ahead this month. The problem with that is that the 360 had already been out for 2 holiday seasons and the PS3 was out for a holiday season already when we look at the PS2+XBox numbers. The only reason the PS3+360 numbers will show any growth at all from last gen is due to the generation itself lasting so much longer.

It looks like that 'core' home console userbase that publishers target hasn't really grown at all, yet costs keep rising higher and higher. Makes it pretty easy to see why there have been so many devs closed and so many losses on the balance sheets for pubs this gen. And it doesn't paint a rosy picture for a new gen with even higher costs, and the same old userbase to sell to.

while you post that as a concern for next gen, its good material for why MS/Sony would choose to launch earlier than 2014. As your numbers show, its not as simple as keeping your current console on the market for as long as possible. Even if you're the only game in town, eventually you have nobody else to sell to and need to refresh your product to get previous buyers back into stores for hardware

 

[Kenka]

Sales-age force to be relocated in MC threads from 2012 onwards.

 

[Oblivionmancer]

I mean that probably we have one more hardware cycle before the idea of a dedicated game computer under your screen that needs to be refreshed to keep up with technology is unlikely. Streaming services and cloud computing will deliver content to a receiver box under your TV. It won't be expensive, it might even be completely free, but the services on it will be the products.

Things like broadband availability and speed, in combination with tighter and tighter grip that providers seem to be putting on that bandwidth seem like pretty serious practical barriers to that reality. But more importantly, you have defeated the insanity of the one console future by positing a no console future. Madness.

 

[Erethian]

The real sign we are at the end of the generation is that number of posts in NPD threads are down a billion percent.

I can't believe it's the night of NPD Thursday and this thread is already halfway down the front page! And it seems like with Vita vs. 3DS... no-one really cares. I miss the scene.

I'm so excited for the console wars to start again.

Lack of numbers has killed the level of discussion much more than how far into the generation we are.

 

[UnblessedSoul]

Quick guys, lets get next gen out already, people are sure to buy them!

 

[Oblivionmancer]

That's part of the problem though. Costs went way up this generation (for development), but the userbase is pretty much the same (actually even worse when factoring in how much longer this gen has lasted).

If we exclude Nintendo (since publishers certainly did - they bailed out big-time on the Cube, and they couldn't even bail out on Wii because they never showed up to begin with), then through the same time-frame:

PS2 (2000-2006) + XBox (2001-2006) ~ 51.2M
360 (2005-2011) + PS3 (2006-2011) ~ 52.6M


So 360+PS3 just finally pulled ahead this month. The problem with that is that the 360 had already been out for 2 holiday seasons and the PS3 was out for a holiday season already when we look at the PS2+XBox numbers. The only reason the PS3+360 numbers will show any growth at all from last gen is due to the generation itself lasting so much longer.

It looks like that 'core' home console userbase that publishers target hasn't really grown at all, yet costs keep rising higher and higher. Makes it pretty easy to see why there have been so many devs closed and so many losses on the balance sheets for pubs this gen. And it doesn't paint a rosy picture for a new gen with even higher costs, and the same old userbase to sell to.

I think if more developers would try to adopt a business strategy that's better than 'make a multi-million selling megahit or fold' this wouldn't be such a problem. The increasing demands that come with the higher production values of more advanced hardware certainly contribute to the issue, but I think there are enough minor to moderate financial successes out there (Demon/Dark Souls might be a good example) to show that it's possible to function in the ecosystem without making all or nothing bets, which are usually bets against the Call of Dutys and WoWs that have already won.

 

[AdventureRacing]

I think assuming that the the entire PS2 userbase were 'core' userbase and that there was no overlap with the wiis audience is a little off base.

I realise the wii has been fantastic for 3rd party publishers (although it did have the highest selling 3rd party sku this month) but to make it like it is completely irrelevant really muddies the picture.

 

[TheOddOne]

Poor Sony, couldn't even beat a dead console. We should start preparing now so we're not hurt as bad when they eventually announce they're going 3rd party.

Let's not go overboard, they posted respectable numbers.

 

[antonz]

Quick guys, lets get next gen out already, people are sure to buy them!

Uh yeah they would.

Console launches dont appeal to the people paying 99 bucks or whatever. Console launches are for those of us who have had our console 5+ years.

But sure we can ride the deadend train off the tracks and im sure that will work real well

 

[Portugeezer]

No 3DS numbers?

 

[Mpl90]

However, I'm starting thinking that the PR we had days ago from Nintendo is the classic December PR indeed, just much more anticipated than usual. It has all the numbers we need, basically...but having something more concrete would have been better.

Here's what they said days ago

Nintendo 3DS Crosses 4 Million Mark
Driven by Fast-Selling Software Nintendo 3DS Sells More in Its First Nine Months Than Wii Did

REDMOND, Wash.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Whether they were on the go or at home, whether they played in 2D on the TV or in glasses-free 3D in their hands, gamers of all ages celebrated the holidays with Mario™ and Zelda™. Super Mario 3D Land™ and Mario Kart™ 7 for the Nintendo 3DS™ system not only became the fastest-selling titles in the history of their respective franchises when they launched, but they are now also the first Nintendo 3DS titles to sell 1 million units each in the United States. On the console side, The Legend of Zelda™: Skyward Sword, which also broke launch records, became the 45th Wii™ title to sell more than 1 million units in the United States.

“One of the strongest software lineups in our history helped Nintendo have a great holiday season and to close 2011 with a full head of steam”
.“One of the strongest software lineups in our history helped Nintendo have a great holiday season and to close 2011 with a full head of steam,” said Scott Moffitt, Nintendo of America’s executive vice president of Sales & Marketing. “Not only have the new Mario and Zelda titles already broken records, but with strong reviews and satisfied customers sharing their positive experiences, all three are also shaping up to be the latest long-tail titles from Nintendo. Couple that with a massive first- and third party lineup in the first part of the year and the prospects for 2012 are extremely promising.”

Nintendo sold more than 12 million total hardware units in the United States in 2011, marking the fifth year in a row that the company has accomplished that feat. This includes more than 4.5 million units of Wii, more than 4 million Nintendo 3DS systems, and more than 3.4 million units of the Nintendo DS™ family of systems. This brings the installed base for Wii and Nintendo DS to 39 million and more than 51 million, respectively.

With a strong lineup of software on the horizon, including new installments in the Mario Party™, Pokémon™ and Kid Icarus™ franchises, as well as third-party games such as Resident Evil® Revelations from Capcom and METAL GEAR SOLID® 3D Snake Eater from Konami for Nintendo 3DS, that momentum should continue into the first quarter of 2012 and beyond.

In addition to the milestones reached by new software, two evergreen Nintendo titles celebrated milestones as 2011 drew to a close. Mario Kart Wii™ passed 11 million units sold and New Super Mario Bros.™ for the Nintendo DS family crossed 10 million total units sold.

Remember that Wii and Nintendo 3DS feature parental controls that let adults manage the content their children can access. For more information about this and other features, visit http://www.nintendo.com/wii or http://www.nintendo.com/3ds.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

well since wii was almost as good as ps2, i would have thought a nice transition plan would be in place. sony kept the ps2 alive and selling well after ps3 was intro'd

I'd argue that was by necessity.

The PS3 was priced too high for the market and because of that adoption of the platform has been really slow. Without the PS2 thriving Sony would be in a much worse position than they are. The unfortunate turn of events is the 360 gathering that late gen adopter pool of buyers. But to be honest Sony still has price milestones to hit. And then again so does the 360.

Both are still at fairly high prices for being so late in the gen.

Odd turn of events this generation. Nintendo's drastic fall is really hampering the industries growth. They probably should have had WiiU out this year. They didn't really think any of this through.

Meh, they never seem to. They rode the GCN a year longer than they should have too.

 

[Darklord]

HW being down is great news, it means the push for next-gen will happen soon.

 

[Gravijah]

HW being down is great news, it means the push for next-gen will happen soon.

but the push for next gen already started, the wii u comes out this year.

 

[antonz]

This generations a screwed up one because the Wii was so insanely popular it pushed growth etc to levels that are unsustainable.

Meanwhile its competition priced itself out of competition for most of the generation. Now they are finally getting cheap enough to sell but its still a tough sale though Kinect has helped MS.

The reality is and the market doesnt like to hear it but Gaming is where it would normally be money wise etc. The Wii simply superinflated the bubble.

 

[Danthrax]

This generations a screwed up one because the Wii was so insanely popular it pushed growth etc to levels that are unsustainable.

Meanwhile its competition priced itself out of competition for most of the generation. Now they are finally getting cheap enough to sell but its still a tough sale though Kinect has helped MS.

The reality is and the market doesnt like to hear it but Gaming is where it would normally be money wise etc. The Wii simply superinflated the bubble.

Hence no growth in the core video game playing market, hence the problem with rising development costs each generation, which is what Dalthien is talking about earlier in this thread. I lean toward agreeing with his assessment of the situation.

If no one can get all the new people who bought Wiis (and to a lesser extend, perhaps, Kinect 360s) to buy more games and the next wave of consoles, then there's no growth in the market and the whole industry is in trouble. Gaming will have to downsize or it'll collapse.

 

[antonz]

Hence no growth in the core video game playing market, hence the problem with rising development costs each generation, which is what Dalthien is talking about earlier in this thread. I lean toward agreeing with his assessment of the situation.

If no one can get all the new people who bought Wiis (and to a lesser extend, perhaps, Kinect 360s) to buy more games and the next wave of consoles, then there's no growth in the market and the whole industry is in trouble. Gaming will have to downsize or it'll collapse.

I think it could have been healthier if Publishers hadnt let the Wii return to earth so harshly. When you ignore the big mover of the industry and let it fall to earth its going to impact hard. I am sure the industry grew to some extent but then the powers that be let the newcomers walk off by saying they werent important enough to divert resources for.

 

[Sleepy Buddha]

So what are the final NPD HW sales for the year? I can't seem to find the November results thread for some reason.

 

[Gravijah]

So what are the final NPD HW sales for the year? I can't seem to find the November results thread for some reason.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=455040

 

[Kenka]

Well, a 1M+ month for MK7 is almost a given due to its position in the charts.

That would indicate hardware figures for 3DS at least on par. Damn, I hate to deal with sepcul-fiction to satisfy my sales-age needs.

 

[acm2000]

the 360 sales this late into its life cycle are mind boggling, 1.6m sales over the ps3 in 2 months....

 

[Sadist]

Wll the 3DS news is good I suppose. 3D Land and Kart 7 charting is nice.

I suppose next year will be worse, when we'll be transitioning into next gen.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Where are 3DS numbers?

This and DS numbers as well.

 

[Cygnus X-1]

will we get the 3ds sales?

Apparently it sold pretty close to the 360.

Really??