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[ElyrionX]

Is anyone really genuinely surprised by the poor Move sales?

You can say all you want about it being superior to the Wii in terms of motion tracking and all that but that is not something readily apparent to the Wii's casual audience and something inherently difficult to market. The thing was a giant ripoff of the Wii and Sony is finally getting what it deserves after a long history of copying its competitors' ideas. I just hope that this doesn't prove disastrous enough to see Sony pull out from the console space.

 

[REMEMBER CITADEL]

PS3...just wow.

And the most perplexing thing is that Kaz doesn't seem to feel the need to change it up at SCEA, even though they've been comprehensively outsold by the competition every month for a full 12 months now.

What could they do? They have a great software line-up, but it's still not enough, at least not at this price point. They can't afford dropping the price by much (or at all) if they want to remain profitable - and they do - and then there are outside factors such as Kinect that they have no control over.

 

[tzare]

So are you saying that Sony is satisfied with the output they've established with Move? Please explain what you're basing your results on.

i am saying that we don't know if sony has meet its expectations for move or not,so saying that move is a failure just because kinect sells better in the US (which is not a surprise as sony is distant 3rd this generation there) is nonsense. But well, that is a usual thing in these npd threads afterall.

Move will be like the PSP, it will sell enough for Sony to make profit but when compared to the competition it looks like a loser.

that is very likely

but considering they have been losing money for so long i think that is what they should do for now

n NA, they are not going to come back from what has happened so why bother competing with something you will never catch?

this too. they need to keep ps3 alive and doing well, that is not equal to outsell competition.Just maintain distance or lose as little as possible. And improve were they are stronger, japan en europe.

 

[Xenon]

Kind of a slow reaction, honestly. Regardless of the fact they have been studying motion controllers for years, since the early 2Ks, the Move showing at 2009 E3 felt like something arranged the day before, in total fear of "Natal".

It reminds me of when they revealed the sixaxis when they were afraid of the Wii. Other than Blu Ray, Sony has really brought nothing new to the table this gen and have been playing a me too role. Their 3rd place spot is no surprise.

 

[Guevara]

Is anyone really genuinely surprised by the poor Move sales?

You can say all you want about it being superior to the Wii in terms of motion tracking and all that but that is not something readily apparent to the Wii's casual audience and something inherently difficult to market. The thing was a giant ripoff of the Wii and Sony is finally getting what it deserves after a long history of copying its competitors' ideas. I just hope that this doesn't prove disastrous enough to see Sony pull out from the console space.

That's the thing though, I think the Move is pretty clearly the best motion control tech of the three AND has better announced hardcore support coming this year than Kinect or the Wii. It deserves to succeed, but probably won't because of undifferentiating consumers and the fact that it looks and feels very much like a Wii.

 

[mclaren777]

Kinect is allegedly selling quite well but I still don't know anybody who has one (apart from people on forums).

What's going on?

 

[Paracelsus]

It reminds me of when they revealed the sixaxis when they were afraid of the Wii. Other than Blu Ray, Sony has really brought nothing new to the table this gen and have been playing a me too role. Their 3rd place spot is no surprise.

Their third spot fits with Sony's behaviour but it's not the direct cause, more like the reason they'll never get second place.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

Move will be like the PSP, it will sell enough for Sony to make profit but when compared to the competition it looks like a loser.

Well, it might end up being a non-issue for Sony, but the poor sales of Move-exclusive titles probably means that, unless Sony ponies up the incentives, third party support is bound to be limited to optional use in a few games with very possibly not much in the way of dedicated software support for the rest of the lifespan of the Move and/or PS3. And that's a shame since it could do some pretty neat stuff if only it wasn't limited by having to support analog stick controls in the same titles.

 

[bobbytkc]

Kinect is allegedly selling quite well but I still don't know anybody who has one (apart from people on forums).

What's going on?

I think it sells well in the US, but not necessarily in other markets.

 

[JoeBoy101]

Kinect is allegedly selling quite well but I still don't know anybody who has one (apart from people on forums).

What's going on?

Need more friends?

Spoiler

I jest, I jest.

 

[AranhaHunter]

Awww gloom and doom for the PS3 and Sony again. I was missing those days. Let me recap what I have seen lately:

- Home is a failure, Sony should let go of this project before they lose too much money
- PSN+ is a joke, who would pay for that? Waste of time and money by Sony
- Music for Qriocity? WTF? Pandora and Spotify do the same for free
- LOL at January PS3 NPD sales
- Move is a major bomba, might be such a disastrous bomba that Sony might pull out of the gaming business
- NGP is doomed, has no games and they're all console ports. Lack of 3D means gets owned by 3DS and smartphones. Price will be U$500 and it'll be DOA.
- Xperia Play sucks and is underwhelming
- Tablet with PS Certified? I guess if you throw enough shit on the wall....
- Sony is fucked no matter what

Obviously not everything is verbatim, but to be honest, I kinda get entertained by all this.

 

[offshore]

Their third spot fits with Sony's behaviour but it's not the direct cause, more like the reason they'll never get second place.

Sony will probably get second place by years end, but if their performance in the US was even just half improved, they'd probably be well clear of the 360 worldwide by now.

While the solution of how to solve the problem of the PS3 in the US admittedly doesn't jump off a page, they've got to do something. Sony absolutely don't want the US to become "Xbox land". Alarm bells should be going off at SCEA that that very notion gets brought up from time to time.

They should probably start by getting rid of Kevin Butler. Anyone who thinks it is a success is living in some kind of reality distortion field.

 

[JoeBoy101]

Awww gloom and doom for the PS3 and Sony again. I was missing those days. Let me recap what I have seen lately:

- Home is a failure, Sony should let go of this project before they lose too much money
- PSN+ is a joke, who would pay for that? Waste of time and money by Sony
- Music for Qriocity? WTF? Pandora and Spotify do the same for free
- LOL at January PS3 NPD sales
- Move is a major bomba, might be such a disastrous bomba that Sony might pull out of the gaming business
- NGP is doomed, has no games and they're all console ports. Lack of 3D means gets owned by 3DS and smartphones. Price will be U$500 and it'll be DOA.
- Xperia Play sucks and is underwhelming
- Tablet with PS Certified? I guess if you throw enough shit on the wall....
- Sony is fucked no matter what

Obviously not everything is verbatim, but to be honest, I kinda get entertained by all this.

Sure, there's a lot of bullshit being thrown round. But its pretty hard to see Move as anything but a disappointment right now from a sales standpoint. No, its not going to kick Sony out of the gaming business, but its hardly performing to expectations or hopes.

 

[apana]

Wii is holding up alright from the perspective of the console warz and Nintendo profits, but probably not so from the point of view of share holders. We need some software or coming months will be brutal. I can just imagine what 2012 holds. Microsoft still impressive and Sony is just whatever.

 

[BowieZ]

Awww gloom and doom for the PS3 and Sony again. I was missing those days. Let me recap what I have seen lately:

- Home is a failure, Sony should let go of this project before they lose too much money
- PSN+ is a joke, who would pay for that? Waste of time and money by Sony
- Music for Qriocity? WTF? Pandora and Spotify do the same for free
- LOL at January PS3 NPD sales
- Move is a major bomba, might be such a disastrous bomba that Sony might pull out of the gaming business
- NGP is doomed, has no games and they're all console ports. Lack of 3D means gets owned by 3DS and smartphones. Price will be U$500 and it'll be DOA.
- Xperia Play sucks and is underwhelming
- Tablet with PS Certified? I guess if you throw enough shit on the wall....
- Sony is fucked no matter what

Obviously not everything is verbatim, but to be honest, I kinda get entertained by all this.

So you counter the doom and gloom by... compiling a comprehensive failure guide?

 

[DeaconKnowledge]

i am saying that we don't know if sony has meet its expectations for move or not,so saying that move is a failure just because kinect sells better in the US (which is not a surprise as sony is distant 3rd this generation there) is nonsense. But well, that is a usual thing in these npd threads afterall.

We cannot say anything definitive about Move right now, especially with such limited information. Here's what we can say though:

Move is not helping the PS3 to shift many units
Move is not helping third parties shift software


Knowing these two things, we can extrapolate and determine others, such as:

There has been little support for the platform to speak of.

knowing that:

3rd parties will not want to touch a peripheral that's not selling


This is why i'm specifically asking what you quantify as success - Units shipped? Move is not doing well. Development support? Not much of that to speak of,. The pledge for future support? Again, pretty quiet. So I ask again, what are you basing your insistence that Move ISN'T a failure on? Notice before you reply I have not mentioned Kinect at all in my post. Let's give these allegations that it's not doing poorly some foundation.

 

[ElyrionX]

That's the thing though, I think the Move is pretty clearly the best motion control tech of the three AND has better announced hardcore support coming this year than Kinect or the Wii. It deserves to succeed, but probably won't because of undifferentiating consumers and the fact that it looks and feels very much like a Wii.

It's a huge strategic mistake by Sony. Who were they really going after? The casuals or the hardcore? Did they even bother identifying the audience?

The Move would be difficult to market to the casuals since the only real visible improvement over the Wii is in the graphics department which is something the casuals couldn't care less about and Nintendo executed this to perfection with the Wii, releasing a cheap piece of hardware, knowing that the price and concept will be the one to draw the masses in. Sony's lacking the price and the novelty of motion controls has long worn off.

As for the hardcore, Sony had the three-year track record of the Wii which produced one very obvious lesson: motion controls as conceived by the Wii don't work well at all in the context of traditional games, which is all the hardcore gamers care about.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

It's a huge strategic mistake by Sony. Who were they really going after? The casuals or the hardcore? Did they even bother identifying the audience?

The Move would be difficult to market to the casuals since the only real visible improvement over the Wii is in the graphics department which is something the casuals couldn't care less about and Nintendo executed this to perfection with the Wii, releasing a cheap piece of hardware, knowing that the price and concept will be the one to draw the masses in. Sony's lacking the price and the novelty of motion controls has long worn off.

As for the hardcore, Sony had the three-year track record of the Wii which produced one very obvious lesson: motion controls as conceived by the Wii don't work well at all in the context of traditional games, which is all the hardcore gamers care about.

Awesome, time for a controller input flame war for the next 75 posts.

 

[TheExecutive]

Sure, there's a lot of bullshit being thrown round. But its pretty hard to see Move as anything but a disappointment right now from a sales standpoint. No, its not going to kick Sony out of the gaming business, but its hardly performing to expectations or hopes.

Do we know this for sure? Where the hell is the data to back this statement up? Are we to assume that console bundles, the most expensive way to get this accessory is the way we should be measuring a disappointment or not? Some of the material required to use the move was already out on the market for years. If I had a PS3 and a pseye I dont see myself going out and buying a bundle to test out the move.

 

[theBishop]

i am saying that we don't know if sony has meet its expectations for move or not,so saying that move is a failure just because kinect sells better in the US (which is not a surprise as sony is distant 3rd this generation there) is nonsense. But well, that is a usual thing in these npd threads afterall.

Yeah, who can say what Sony's expectations were for Move at this point in its life. It seems they are still building a base of software to support the device. The first big Move-required game Sorcery is still months out. Already PS3 has gotten some improved ports of Wii's best 3rd party games, which is a nice development. Sony can build Move support gradually, in many different forms (patches to existing games, Wii ports, PSN exclusives, full retail, etc).

I'm not yet happy with Sony's Move software lineup, but going forward it looks like Move will just blend seamlessly into PS3 ownership.

 

[REMEMBER CITADEL]

Kinect is allegedly selling quite well but I still don't know anybody who has one (apart from people on forums).

What's going on?

Microsoft is buying all of them and burying them right next to Atari's pile of E.T. cartridges.

I think it sells well in the US, but not necessarily in other markets.

Since Kinect games have been performing well even in some European countries where Xbox 360 is traditionally weak, that doesn't seem to be the case. It's a non-factor in Japan, however.

 

[see5harp]

Awww gloom and doom for the PS3 and Sony again. I was missing those days. Let me recap what I have seen lately:

- Home is a failure, Sony should let go of this project before they lose too much money
- PSN+ is a joke, who would pay for that? Waste of time and money by Sony
- Music for Qriocity? WTF? Pandora and Spotify do the same for free
- LOL at January PS3 NPD sales
- Move is a major bomba, might be such a disastrous bomba that Sony might pull out of the gaming business
- NGP is doomed, has no games and they're all console ports. Lack of 3D means gets owned by 3DS and smartphones. Price will be U$500 and it'll be DOA.
- Xperia Play sucks and is underwhelming
- Tablet with PS Certified? I guess if you throw enough shit on the wall....
- Sony is fucked no matter what

Obviously not everything is verbatim, but to be honest, I kinda get entertained by all this.

I think NGP is the one thing they do have a shot at a big thing depending on price. Right now it is sorta hard not to laugh at Xperia Play, Qriocity, and Tablets. Home is always funny.

 

[jay]

The Move would be difficult to market to the casuals since the only real visible improvement over the Wii is in the graphics department which is something the casuals couldn't care less about ...

Part of the problem here is that many people disagree with this and continually repeat the line that even casuals will eventually realize the Wii looks terrible and demand HD games.

 

[JaxJag]

Dead Space 2 did well, but the quality of that game is so high I can't help but be disappointed that it didn't do better.

I do know from personal experience of trying to get friends/family to play the Dead Space games that something about it seems to turn people off to the point they won't even give it a chance.

Not really sure what it is though, maybe the suit design?

 

[SeaOfMadness]

Is anyone really genuinely surprised by the poor Move sales?

You can say all you want about it being superior to the Wii in terms of motion tracking and all that but that is not something readily apparent to the Wii's casual audience and something inherently difficult to market. The thing was a giant ripoff of the Wii and Sony is finally getting what it deserves after a long history of copying its competitors' ideas. I just hope that this doesn't prove disastrous enough to see Sony pull out from the console space.

They were stupid for 2 reasons: 1) they essentially copied a competitor's accessory (albeit doing a better job with it overall) and 2) for better or worse, they targeted this new peripheral at their core audience, people who already own PS3s. It's obvious now that people are not buying PS3s for Move.

MS went the other direction with Kinect. The right direction it seems. Sell it to your core audience at a premium, but bundle it for cheap with new consoles and get a whole bunch of new people on your platform that would otherwise not have given it a second look before. Kinect is different enough and casual enough to appeal to "non-core" gamers unlike the Move which just isn't hitting that demographic.

 

[theBishop]

Dead Space 2 did well, but the quality of that game is so high I can't help but be disappointed that it didn't do better.

I do know from personal experience of trying to get friends/family to play the Dead Space games that something about it seems to turn people off to the point they won't even give it a chance.

Not really sure what it is though, maybe the suit design?

It took me a while to get into Dead Space 1. I could tell from the first 10 minutes that it was an extremely well-designed game. But the Necromorphs are so grotesque and seem to come from all directions in the first few levels. Even the load screens elevators don't seem safe. Until I got used to the pacing, the game simply stressed me out. I could only play in ~20 minute chunks before I wanted a break.

 

[SeaOfMadness]

Do we know this for sure? Where the hell is the data to back this statement up? Are we to assume that console bundles, the most expensive way to get this accessory is the way we should be measuring a disappointment or not? Some of the material required to use the move was already out on the market for years. If I had a PS3 and a pseye I dont see myself going out and buying a bundle to test out the move.

It might be selling respectfully as an accessory, much like a webcam, or other type of controller would. But I can't believe they're happy with the fact that no one seems to be buying PS3 just for the Move. That's just not a competitive strategy these days.

PS3 has the same problem as Xbox. It's a great platform for the hardcore gamer, but not for casuals. Move is not helping Sony expand its audience at all. Which isn't a surprise because this outcome was obvious (at least to me) from the get go.

 

[Owzers]

It took me a while to get into Dead Space 1. I could tell from the first 10 minutes that it was an extremely well-designed game. But the Necromorphs are so grotesque and seem to come from all directions in the first few levels. Even the load screens elevators don't seem safe. Until I got used to the pacing, the game simply stressed me out. I could only play in ~20 minute chunks before I wanted a break.

It's why i'm not eager to buy Dead Space 2, that type of pacing is just not for me.

 

[theBishop]

It might be selling respectfully as an accessory, much like a webcam, or other type of controller would. But I can't believe they're happy with the fact that no one seems to be buying PS3 just for the Move. That's just not a competitive strategy these days.

PS3 has the same problem as Xbox. It's a great platform for the hardcore gamer, but not for casuals. Move is not helping Sony expand its audience at all. Which isn't a surprise because this outcome was obvious (at least to me) from the get go.

Who plays LittleBigPlanet?

 

[tzare]

We cannot say anything definitive about Move right now, especially with such limited information. Here's what we can say though:

Move is not helping the PS3 to shift many units
Move is not helping third parties shift software


Knowing these two things, we can extrapolate and determine others, such as:

There has been little support for the platform to speak of.

knowing that:

3rd parties will not want to touch a peripheral that's not selling


This is why i'm specifically asking what you quantify as success - Units shipped? Move is not doing well. Development support? Not much of that to speak of,. The pledge for future support? Again, pretty quiet. So I ask again, what are you basing your insistence that Move ISN'T a failure on? Notice before you reply I have not mentioned Kinect at all in my post. Let's give these allegations that it's not doing poorly some foundation.

again, i am not saying what is success for Move. I say that is Sony that will consider if Move is or isn't, regarding their expectations.

As a first party peripheral it needs first party support. So that should come first, it has been slow for now,mostly PSN games, patches and a few wii-like games but it is slowly growing, LBP2 should have support, KZ3, Socom 4 are some games that can help move to be a popular accesory. For example, as i said before, they are selling the sharpshooter, so why selling an accesory for a peripheral that is a failure?
Personally, I see move more focused to actual PS3 owners, let them have both casual motion controller plus hardcore experience. And while that may not move systems, it sells peripherals which have a decent margin, something they really need now, it may help to have some brand loyalty (because move is probably the best motion controller out there ) and maybe , after those hardcore games released, if well done and move support too of course, bring new customers.

And , as far as i know, they moved a few million units before the end of the year, and it was sold out , at least some skus, so i guess that is not a total disaster as some pretend.

 

[SeaOfMadness]

Who plays LittleBigPlanet?

Not the same people who play Wii/Kinect. Or do you think mom and grandma would play LBP for more than 10 minutes and be asking for more?

 

[RedStep]

Yeah, who can say what Sony's expectations were for Move at this point in its life. It seems they are still building a base of software to support the device. The first big Move-required game Sorcery is still months out. Already PS3 has gotten some improved ports of Wii's best 3rd party games, which is a nice development. Sony can build Move support gradually, in many different forms (patches to existing games, Wii ports, PSN exclusives, full retail, etc).

I'm not yet happy with Sony's Move software lineup, but going forward it looks like Move will just blend seamlessly into PS3 ownership.

Considering that the tagline was "This Changes Everything", I doubt they were looking for everything to stay the same.

 

[REMEMBER CITADEL]

Not the same people who play Wii/Kinect. Or do you think mom and grandma would play LBP for more than 10 minutes and be asking for more?

Definitely. I would even go out on a limb and say that there's a greater overlap between casuals and people who play Fable than is the case with LBP.

 

[Arnie]

It took me a while to get into Dead Space 1. I could tell from the first 10 minutes that it was an extremely well-designed game. But the Necromorphs are so grotesque and seem to come from all directions in the first few levels. Even the load screens elevators don't seem safe. Until I got used to the pacing, the game simply stressed me out. I could only play in ~20 minute chunks before I wanted a break.

This is how I'm currently playing Dead Space 2.

 

[theBishop]

Not the same people who play Wii/Kinect. Or do you think mom and grandma would play LBP for more than 10 minutes and be asking for more?

I think there's a tendency to look at everything these days as "casual" or "hardcore". And I agree there is a meaningful distinction between Wii Sports, Rockband, Dance Central vs Red Dead, Call of Duty, Gears of War, etc.

But many of Wii's most successful games like NSMB or Mario Kart are essentially "Core" games. They're just very, very accessible core games. If a Wii gamer has fun with NSMB, it stands to reason they would also have fun with LBP. Unless the entire appeal is nostalgia for the Mario sprite.

 

[theBishop]

Considering that the tagline was "This Changes Everything", I doubt they were looking for everything to stay the same.

Yay marketing. Microsoft tried to convince us Kinect would put a live child who recognizes us and essentially passes the Turing Test into our television.

If Sony thought Move would "change everything" they would have had some everything-changing software available at launch.

 

[tzare]

Yay marketing. Microsoft tried to convince us Kinect would put a live child who recognizes us and essentially passes the Turing Test into our television.

If Sony thought Move would "change everything" they would have had some everything-changing software available at launch.

exactly. marketing tries to sell anything to anyone, so if they can sell a fan to eskimo , that is ok

 

[yellowjacket25]

I think NGP is the one thing they do have a shot at a big thing depending on price. Right now it is sorta hard not to laugh at Xperia Play, Qriocity, and Tablets. Home is always funny.

Why is Home always funny? It has certainly improved software wise. A lot of people enjoy it. Are you saying that Home is losing money? Because I'm pretty sure that isn't close to true. So what exactly makes Home such a bad thing?

 

[uncledonnie]

It took me a while to get into Dead Space 1. I could tell from the first 10 minutes that it was an extremely well-designed game. But the Necromorphs are so grotesque and seem to come from all directions in the first few levels. Even the load screens elevators don't seem safe. Until I got used to the pacing, the game simply stressed me out. I could only play in ~20 minute chunks before I wanted a break.

Same. I couldn't finish the game for that reason and while Dead Space 2 looks great, I know it would also remain in my backlog so I passed.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Looks like this will be the last holiday for the Wii. Sales are slumping, and a successor has to come out by November 2012.

 

[Snipes424]

Why is Home always funny? It has certainly improved software wise. A lot of people enjoy it. Are you saying that Home is losing money? Because I'm pretty sure that isn't close to true. So what exactly makes Home such a bad thing?

Because entitlement age tells us that everything has to be made for you and if it isn't then it's a gigantic failure and needs to die.

 

[apana]

Looks like this will be the last holiday for the Wii. Sales are slumping, and a successor has to come out by November 2012.

Yep, the writing is on the wall. Looks like 16 million units sold for this year. That's like a drop of what, 4 million from last fiscal year?

 

[see5harp]

Why is Home always funny? It has certainly improved software wise. A lot of people enjoy it. Are you saying that Home is losing money? Because I'm pretty sure that isn't close to true. So what exactly makes Home such a bad thing?

It may be making money, I didn't say otherwise but it's not like Sony has bothered to provide specific numbers (ever). If you want to take PR from Sony and turn it into concrete data that Home is making great money then go right ahead. It's funny because Home is garbage.

EDIT: and never did I say they should kill it and "entitlement" is not quite right. You can continue enjoying your shit salad, I don't care that you are sipping diarhhea that's your business.

 

[Skiptastic]

It took me a while to get into Dead Space 1. I could tell from the first 10 minutes that it was an extremely well-designed game. But the Necromorphs are so grotesque and seem to come from all directions in the first few levels. Even the load screens elevators don't seem safe. Until I got used to the pacing, the game simply stressed me out. I could only play in ~20 minute chunks before I wanted a break.

I played through the first few levels of DS1 on Normal a half year ago and was totally nerve wrecked.

I bought it to beat before DS2 and played through on Easy instead and had a blast. Just enjoyed being scared and the pacing without having to worry about stuff like dying or ammo. Doing the same for DS2 and I'm loving it. So fucking scary!

 

[RedStep]

Yay marketing. Microsoft tried to convince us Kinect would put a live child who recognizes us and essentially passes the Turing Test into our television.

If Sony thought Move would "change everything" they would have had some everything-changing software available at launch.

No, that was a tech demo. Their tagline was "You Are The Controller". Obviously marketing's job is to pump things up, but it's pretty comical for a product that didn't change anything.

 

[duk]

hey sony why not stop investing in crap like home, move, etc and just give us a price drop lol

it only does everything (cept sell)

 

[RSTEIN]

.

 

[RubberJohnny]

Do we know this for sure? Where the hell is the data to back this statement up?

In the first post.

Why is Home always funny? It has certainly improved software wise. A lot of people enjoy it. Are you saying that Home is losing money? Because I'm pretty sure that isn't close to true. So what exactly makes Home such a bad thing?

It is a creepy place.

 

[CadetMahoney]

Yeah, I 100% expect zero bump as well. I just bring it up because it's funny how they bring it up in their PR, yet it will show no noticeable signs of hardware increase as a result of it and probably struggle to beat CoD for the top spot

They'll just continue to PR the next "big" title as a commentary on recent sales. Ecosystem done well. . . industry leader. . . do you see what we got next month!

 

[Bizzyb]

So any chance we'll get (official) NDS numbers?

Cosign

I doubt it for PSP though...I heard Sony will physically and financial threaten anyone who publicly publishes PSP numbers

Edit: the fact that Nintendo has yet to comment is a bad sign. I really don't think Wii can last another year and I wouldn't even be surprised if Zelda massively undersells; as in only 1.2 million lifetime NA sales.