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[Drinky Crow]

i predict

[360] 1000000
[PS3] 10
[WII] 0
[DS] 5
[PSP] 1000000000000000000000
[PS2] 100000
[GBA] 20000

 

[duderon]

i predict

[360] 1000000
[PS3] 10
[WII] 0
[DS] 5
[PSP] 1000000000000000000000
[PS2] 100000
[GBA] 20000

thumbsup.gif

 

[donny2112]

[PS2] 100000

No respect for the PS2, huh?

Edit:
BTW, I think you qualify as an "outlier" for Cheesemeister's parser. :lol

 

[Hcoregamer00]

NDS - 450,000
WII - 400,000
PSP - 150,000
PS3 - 90,000
PS2 - 200,000
360 - 300,000
GBA - 100,000

I am totally guessing, but since lots of Wii supply has been diverted from Japan I am expecting a jump in Wii sales since it is still impossible to buy a console. The DS will sell well like always.

I am expecting a HUGE bump on the 360 because of Bioshock while the PS3 should go back down again to normal levels.

 

[Orgen]

[NDS] 408.000
[WII] 382.000
[360] 259.000
[PS2] 213.000
[PSP] 187.000
[PS3] 121.000
[GBA] 83.000

 

[JJConrad]

Cheesemeister prefers the term "aggregate." I think it's because he doesn't include some of the extreme joke posts (i.e. outliers). It currently isn't posted until after predictions close. That way no one can be "influenced" by it. That doesn't stop anyone from going through and averaging the ~200 predictions so far, if they really want to, though. :lol

I think he includes the joke posts. "Aggregate" simply means "to total" or "the sum of the whole mass," so excluding some posts wouldn't fit that definition. It's not always easy to determine who is trying to be funny and who just sucks. Plus, last month I gathered up all the predictions myself to check stats and the only time I could get the averages to match his was when I included everything.

Thanks again, Cheesemeister!

QFT

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

WII - 400,000
I am totally guessing, but since lots of Wii supply has been diverted from Japan I am expecting a jump in Wii sales since it is still impossible to buy a console.

But you have it down from last month.

(And not in the parser format.)

 

[donny2112]

I think he includes the joke posts. ... Plus, last month I gathered up all the predictions myself to check stats and the only time I could get the averages to match his was when I included everything.

Okay. I thought he had said something about excluding some outliers, but maybe that was just applicable to the ranges of predictions?

 

[Jiggy]

[360] 247,000
[GBA] 81,000
[NDS] 405,000
[PS2] 216,000
[PS3] 118,000
[PSP] 165,000
[WII] 399,000



Eh, I'll try it for once. If for no other reason than to find out if I do better than Pachter.

Estimating low on PSP as people wait for PSP-2000. Estimating high on Wii because, going by Media Create threads, either shipments are really being directed to NA or Japan's demand has been softening. Probably lowballing 360, but I'm trying not to overestimate the effect of a $50 price drop after seeing what a $100 price drop did for PS3.

 

[Cheesemeister]

Okay. I thought he had said something about excluding some outliers, but maybe that was just applicable to the ranges of predictions?

Yeah, I exclude the top and bottom two non-zero predictions on each platform for the purposes of establishing expected ranges. The actual numbers for the GAF aggregate, however, are simple averages. Outliers were why we were seeing some of these numbers outside of the expected ranges. Perhaps I could exclude them as well, or simply disqualify flagrantly joke predictors.

Disqualified.Add("Drinky Crow");

 

[Hyllian]

[WII] 387K
[NDS] 401K
[360] 230K
[PS2] 210K
[PSP] 175K
[PS3] 129K
[GBA] 75K

 

[Tobor]

[NDS] 405.000
[WII] 437.000
[360] 277.000
[PS2] 211.000
[PSP] 189.000
[PS3] 113.000
[GBA] 82.000

 

[Hcoregamer00]

But you have it down from last month.

(And not in the parser format.)

[NDS] - 450,000
[WII] - 400,000
[PSP] - 150,000
[PS3] - 90,000
[PS2] - 200,000
[360] - 300,000
[GBA] - 100,000

Okay, I added it in parser format

 

[Corwood Rep]

[NDS] 420,000
[WII] 395,000
[360] 250,000
[PS2] 210,000
[PSP] 200,000
[PS3] 145,000
[GBA] 80,000

 

[Spiegel]

[WII] 450,000
[NDS] 412,000
[360] 266,000
[PS2] 218,000
[PSP] 202,000
[PS3] 118,000
[GBA] 86,000

 

[Drinky Crow]

excluding me is a bad idea. i am gaf's foremost expert on console hardware and sales.

 

[bigmakstudios]

[WII] - 430,000
[NDS] - 412,000
[360] - 285,000
[PS2] - 208,000
[PSP] - 215,000
[PS3] - 132,000
[GBA] - 88,000

 

[Pope Benedict XVI]

[PS2] 220,000
[PSP] 210,000
[PS3] 150,000
[360] 250,000
[GBA] 85,000
[NGC] 5,000
[NDS] 400,000
[WII] 400,000

 

[Cheesemeister]

I'm shocked at the number of people predicting that all systems will have negative sales.

 

[Earthstrike]

[wii] 450k
[PS3] 160k
[360] 235k
[PSP] 180k
[NDS] 390k
[GBA] 75k
[PS2] 195k

 

[Hcoregamer00]

I'm shocked at the number of people predicting that all systems will have negative sales.

We are amateurs, so shoot us.

That is why we leave the professional stuff to Pachter.

 

[Psychotext]

We are amateurs, so shoot us.

That is why we leave the professional stuff to Pachter.

85. Pachter - 226,000

 

[donny2112]

Disqualified.Add("Drinky Crow");

His 1 sextillion prediction for PSP could slightly affect the averages. :lol

 

[Markster]

Alright, my linear regression of last month catapultued me all the way to #197 of 220.

Given the 360's price drop, I don't think I'll be sticking with that anymore.

For reference, a linear regression on May-June-July data gives me: (accounting mostly for the 4/5-week differences)

[NDS] 395925
[WII] 468361
[PSP] 210440
[PS2] 239117.5
[360] 177534
[PS3] 197698
[GBA] 90223

However, it's pretty obvious that the PS3 had a kick at the end (price drop) that will not translate to accelerating sales (but better than 100K/month), so I'll take that down an uneducated guess amount.

Also, given the 360's price drop which will be enough to get people who have been waiting for 2 years saying "I'll buy one when the price drops", I imagine that the bump will be pretty large.

So...

[NDS] 395925
[WII] 468361
[PSP] 210440
[PS2] 239117
[360] 300000
[PS3] 125000
[GBA] 90223

 

[Markster]

I'm shocked at the number of people predicting that all systems will have negative sales.

We are amateurs, so shoot us.

No, I think he means this:

[WII] - 400,000

400K are going to sell back their Wii to the stores they bought them from?!?

The dash is not parser format. The parser will probably read that as a negative sign.

 

[perfectchaos007]

So.....the question is are sales numbers actually going to come out in time this month...

 

[grandjedi6]

[Wii] 445,000
[NDS] 425,000
[PS2] 210,000
[PSP] 200,000
[360] 160,000
[PS3] 145,000
[GBA] 81,000

 

[ikkibeddu]

[NDS] - 395,000
[WII] - 415,000
[PSP] - 180,000
[PS3] - 120,000
[PS2] - 180,000
[360] - 275,000
[GBA] - 80,000

 

[Ydahs]

[PS2] 210,000
[PSP] 240,000
[PS3] 175,000
[360] 270,000
[GBA] 70,000
[NDS] 420,000
[WII] 410,000

 

[dyls]

[WII] 445,000
[NDS] 400,000
[360] 255,000
[PSP] 245,000
[PS2] 215,000
[PS3] 105,000
[GBA] 90,000

 

[stolin]

[WII] 450,000 - Influx supply from Japan
[NDS] 400,000 - Keep on cruisin'
[360] 230,000 - Waiting for board revision
[PSP] 165,000 - Waiting for Slim
[PS2] 160,000 - Beginning of downslope
[PS3] 105,000 - When is the next SKU coming
[GBA] 75,000 - How long can it hang on

 

[Vagabundo]

excluding me is a bad idea. i am gaf's foremost expert on console hardware and sales.

I think we will survive. Thanks.

 

[Parl]

[Wii] 425k
[NDS] 415k
[360] 284k
[PS2] 225k
[PSP] 160k
[PS3] 117k
[GBA] 83k

 

[donny2112]

So.....the question is are sales numbers actually going to come out in time this month...

"All signs point to yes."

Anyone else want to predict? The predictions for August 2007 close in just over 6 hours. Anyone else going to do a top ten software predictions? If so, don't forget to use quote tags.

 

[Beer Monkey]

[WII] 418k
[NDS] 380k
[360] 280k
[PS2] 197k
[PSP] 188k
[PS3] 138k
[GBA] 79k
[NGC] 6k


Bioshock - 700k

 

[jamesinclair]

Aw crap Ive had no time at all. Without taking anything into consideration really, here are the numbers from my ass.

[Wii] 415,000
[DS] 414,000
[PSP]222,000
[360]218,000
[PS2]210,000
[PS3]155,000
[GBA]77,000

 

[Cheesemeister]

His 1 sextillion prediction for PSP could slightly affect the averages. :lol

It didn't even fit into the range of possible int values, −2,147,483,648 to +2,147,483,647.

 

[Chû Totoro]

nm

 

[Malleymal]

never did this before.

[NDS] 399,000
[WII] 395.000
[360] 287,000
[PS2] 201.000
[PSP] 170.000
[PS3] 115.000
[GBA] 81.000

 

[duderon]

Stop putting dashes in your predictions people!

:lol

 

[donny2112]

Stop putting dashes in your predictions people!

I think Cheesemeister's parser can be modified to handle it.

prediction = abs(prediction)

 

[szaromir]

Are NPD numbers coming this Thursday?

 

[Cheesemeister]

I think Cheesemeister's parser can be modified to handle it.

prediction = abs(prediction)

Actually...

Spoiler

It already ignores non-numeric characters, including dashes.

 

[traveler]

Are NPD numbers coming this Thursday?

Yup.

 

[RattleHead_]

Are NPD numbers coming this Thursday?

That's what the OP says.

 

[Haunted]

It didn't even fit into the range of possible int values, −2,147,483,648 to +2,147,483,647.

Uh, oh. You might need to expand the parser's limits a bit when Wii Fit comes out.

 

[Arde5643]

Are NPD numbers coming this Thursday?

Yup.

After what happened last month, I'll be surprised if this is true.
Here's hoping anyway.....

 

[starship]

[NDS] 415k
[WII] 385k
[360] 260k
[PS2] 210k
[PSP] 205k
[PS3] 140k
[GBA] 80k

 

[STG!]

[NDS] 441k
[WII] 401k
[360] 230k
[PS2] 187k
[PSP] 236k
[PS3] 113k
[GBA] 79k

 

[felipeko]

What time we will get the Canadian numbers?


And when will sonycowboy report this week's numbers delay?

edit: nvm, read the op, in 3 hours should be.