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Official July 2007 NPD Prediction Thread
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Xisiqomelir
Member
[PSP] 235,000
[PS2] 227,000
[PS3] 105,800
[360] 152,720
[Wii] 320,440
[NDS] 438,600
[GBA] 110,400
[PS2] 227,000
[PS3] 105,800
[360] 152,720
[Wii] 320,440
[NDS] 438,600
[GBA] 110,400
sonycowboy
Member
moku said:
Not to be too cryptic, but for every reason you might have for why an overseas tracker might be better, there's a reason for the difference here in the US. And a little bit of that will be taken away with this month's release. (BTW, for a good reason was my editorial addition. NPD didn't say anything of the kind. I just think you'll think it's pretty nice when you find out)
Also, I can say there's a semi-annual software update involved, so they're usually late one of these summer months as they make mid-year adjustments to their data forecasting model.
I don't remember people being quite so angry at NPD when they were getting thousands of sku's worth of sales compared to what you get from Media Create and Charttrack. There must be a correlation there somewhere.
Oh for the days when NPD was weekly. I remember being absolutely floored with GTA3's weekly numbers from launch until well into March of 2002 (when they killed the weekly sales). It was insane.
perfectchaos007
Member
What has been the ratio of delays vs. on time for NPD this year?
It seems like NPD has been delayed more times than it has been on time this year.
It seems like NPD has been delayed more times than it has been on time this year.
Hey dont get me wrong. I have zero problem with you SC. You do an awesome job.sonycowboy said:
GAF used to get so much, and I hate seeing NPD jerk GAF around so much, when it reality, GAF does/hasdone them a favor.
Oh and I will take reliability,(MC/Famitsu) over this any day of the week.
Part of me hopes that the banned site that pulls numbers from anus, gets good enough to rival NPD so we can get in-depth, free numbers without this unreal level of hassle for simple sales numbers.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
I knew it.sonycowboy said:
Preventing illicit information sharing makes NPD no more in GAF's debt than GamePro for not allowing their scans, or Square Enix for not allowing linking to ROMs of their games.moku said:
Shpeshal Nick
aka Collingwood
DS: 500K
PSP: 193K
Wii: 373K
360: 156K
PS3: 128K
Fear me X
PSP: 193K
Wii: 373K
360: 156K
PS3: 128K
Fear me X
pissmypants
Member
[NDS] 550,000
[Wii] 360,000
[PSP] 155,000
[PS2] 200,000
[PS3] 160,000
[360] 125,000
[GBA] 80,000
[Wii] 360,000
[PSP] 155,000
[PS2] 200,000
[PS3] 160,000
[360] 125,000
[GBA] 80,000
RiskyChris
Banned
[NDS] 500,000
[Wii] 340,000
[PSP] 235,000
[PS2] 220,000
[PS3] 190,000
[360] 150,000
[GBA] 82,000
I'm betting big on PS3 this month.
[Wii] 340,000
[PSP] 235,000
[PS2] 220,000
[PS3] 190,000
[360] 150,000
[GBA] 82,000
I'm betting big on PS3 this month.
sonycowboy
Member
GhaleonEB said:
NPD said:
At this point, they have near complete coverage of the NA market with the exception of Wal-Mart, who used to participate until 2002.
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
Talamius said:
It shouldn't be much of a bump, as they just predicted the outcomes of those retailers before, right?
sonycowboy
Member
BenjaminBirdie said:
It could be a decrease as much as an increase. It depends on how well they extrapolated sales for those sites to be. The issue, of course, is that online retail continues to grow at a significantly faster pace. Without access to those numbers, you can diverge from month to month and year to year.
What's nice about Wal-Mart, is that while they don't have them as a participating games retailer, they have a wealth of historical data and they currently provide market research for them that allows them insight into it's performance relative to the market.
sonycowboy
Member
donny2112 said:So now they have more accurate numbers that aren't publicly available. Yea?
Thanks for the explanation for the delay. Do you think we can get hardware LTDs this month to see if they've backfitted some data?
I'll see what I can do.
Geez. This is actually a pretty huge deal, IMO. They've pretty much completely covered the online area where they were relatively lacking before. And from what I've seen about online rankings, they have substantially different purchasing patterns than brick and mortar stores.
MirageDwarf
Member
NPD said:
This is good. Now people can't discard Amazon.com top seller list from arguments. That's the only data available freely with everyday update. Not saying it will be reflection of the overall market but it does give some base for assumption.
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
MirageDwarf said:
Shouldn't you wait until next Thursday to make that claim?
sonycowboy
Member
MirageDwarf said:
Sorry. It does nothing of the sort. It's still not going to be representative of the market at all. However, what it does do is increase the accuracy, by NPD not having to extrapolate sales that don't fall inline with the concensus majority of retailers.
RiskyChris
Banned
MirageDwarf said:
Oh jeez... =/
I'm looking forward to July data because it's the first month that will have a shake-up this year. The price cut of the PS3 makes things less predictable. Microsoft's price cut, the release of Madden, Bioshock and others will make August really interesting. And September will be a complete wildcard.
I think the period of sales being fairly predictable - as they have been for the past several months - is over. It's going to be interesting, and a lot of fun, watching the sales move over the next few months.
I think the period of sales being fairly predictable - as they have been for the past several months - is over. It's going to be interesting, and a lot of fun, watching the sales move over the next few months.
MirageDwarf
Member
Looks like I should as sonycowboy explained.BenjaminBirdie said:
Thanks for clarification. I totally misunderstood how NPD works. I'll go back in the shades. It will be better if I keep myself just to reading the numbers.sonycowboy said:
RiskyChris said:
I'm not taking that number seriously. I've seen people say Amazon.com numbers don't mean anything since they are not included in NPD. I thought that will change now.
As I said it is better that I just keep myself to reading these numbers.
MirageDwarf
Member
[WII] 340,000
[NDS] 505,000
[PS2] 230,000
[PSP] 210,000
[PS3] 176,000
[360] 130,000
[GBA] 100,000
[NDS] 505,000
[PS2] 230,000
[PSP] 210,000
[PS3] 176,000
[360] 130,000
[GBA] 100,000
Cheesemeister
Member
Hi.
My program would've been able to download the thread and parse it regardless. I just couldn't chew people out for not following the parser format. Ahem...
My program would've been able to download the thread and parse it regardless. I just couldn't chew people out for not following the parser format. Ahem...
sonycowboy
Member
BTW,
No NPD Canada until next Wednesday either, so we should extend the contest a week.
No NPD Canada until next Wednesday either, so we should extend the contest a week.