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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
killer_clank said:
YouGov give much more benefit of the doubt to young voters saying they're definitely going to vote than say, ICM, who weight based on how that age group turned out in the past, which has mostly worked in the past. So it's a judgment call really, this election could indeed break the trend re youth turnout.
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There's not that much difference, actually - 44% to 57%. It's not the big difference in the results of the models for YouGOV against say ICM. It's what they think undecideds are breaking for, from a closer look.
 
H

hohoXD123

Member
Audioboxer said:
After the event

FfXhrUG.png


nah, it's January, just trolling
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Almost got me there. Touché good sir.
 
R

Royal_Phalanx

Member
killer_clank said:
YouGov give much more benefit of the doubt to young voters saying they're definitely going to vote than say, ICM, who weight based on how that age group turned out in the past, which has mostly worked in the past. So it's a judgment call really, this election could indeed break the trend re youth turnout.
Click to expand...

One can hope they actually go vote, there is huge enthusiasm for Corbyn amongst tech young professionals these days. At least in the tech circles I run in, but professionals are generally social liberals anyway. Also people on Facebook I know say they're certain to go vote Labour or Lib Dem.
 
B

Breakage

Member
Thanks for the responses guys. Sounds like she wanted to be around people who wouldn't ask her awkward questions. Caught a bit of this evening's BBC news
at 10 and her absence seems to be main talking point of the debate. She was probably banking on Corbyn stuffing up massively.
 
Audioboxer

Audioboxer

Member
Izuna said:
if the odds are good why the hell not, it's a safe af bet.

... ;/ the fact that I don't think so anymore shows how bizarre this all is.



Almost puked at the thought of UKIP being that high
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hohoXD123 said:
Almost got me there. Touché good sir.
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I mean, we were there at one point! Thankfully UKIP is pretty much nuked, but most of that voting base has gone Tory so it doesn't exactly help Labour.

Royal_Phalanx said:
One can hope they actually go vote, there is huge enthusiasm for Corbyn amongst tech young professionals these days. At least in the tech circles I run in, but professionals are generally social liberals anyway. Also people on Facebook I know say they're certain to go vote Labour or Lib Dem.
Click to expand...

There's been a good uptick in registrations to vote. However, the real proof in the pudding will be the youth turnout figure after the election. Especially compared to the 65+. Corbyn/Labour is throwing out a great opportunity around tuition fee reform, so really, they should be getting out.
 
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Hazzuh

Member
I do think the fact that whichever pollster is off is going to get an absolute bollocking on election night really sums up everything wrong with polling in Britain. British pollsters have traditionally been pretty bad, pollsters are now trying different things from one another to try and change that, we should all be celebrating that! You can't complain about polls herding and then also complain about them not herding!

Maybe the issue isn't with pollsters but with the way polls are reported by newspapers? Maybe journalists should stop putting every unusual result on their front page without context or caveats.
 
P

pulsemyne

Member
Crab said:
57% from that one. Higher than 2015, lower than referendum.
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TBH I think it's a fair amount as Labour and the left leaning partys have really energised the youth vote. Brexit was a very big issue but a lot of those people became interested in politics as well and it's benefited Labour. They key issue is of course if they turn out. Also the other elephant in the room is just how much has the dementia tax etc put off OAP voters from the tories.
Whatever happens it's going to be an interesting night (although the pessimist in me thinks it will not be too good for labour).
 
H

hohoXD123

Member
SporeCrawler said:
So this is before the may no show right? Oh snap
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Guessing after Rudd announcement but before Corbyn announcement.

pulsemyne said:
TBH I think it's a fair amount as Labour and the left leaning partys have really energised the youth vote. Brexit was a very big issue but a lot of those people became interested in politics as well and it's benefited Labour. They key issue is of course if they turn out. Also the other elephant in the room is just how much has the dementia tax etc put off OAP voters from the tories.
Whatever happens it's going to be an interesting night (although the pessimist in me thinks it will not be too good for labour).
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Possibly, but then Nick Clegg supposedly energised the youth vote too (before stabbing them in the back). Don't underestimate youth voter apathy/laziness.
 
R

Royal_Phalanx

Member
Audioboxer said:
I mean, we were there at one point! Thankfully UKIP is pretty much nuked, but most of that voting base has gone Tory so it doesn't exactly help Labour.



There's been a good uptick in registrations to vote. However, the real proof in the pudding will be the youth turnout figure after the election. Especially compared to the 65+. Corbyn/Labour is throwing out a great opportunity around tuition fee reform, so really, they should be getting out.
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If they still don't fucking vote after the referendum shitshow they can no longer complain about a worsening country.
 
O

OverBlood 3

Banned
The Telegraph are saying Amber Rudd's father passed away 48 hours ago.

It makes May ducking out 10 times worse.

Edit: Actually what the hell, it's awful.
 
G

Garjon

Member
Crab said:
57% from that one. Higher than 2015, lower than referendum.
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If we don't get a 57% turnout from the younger vote this time at least, Labour are going to have to move much further to the right to appease older voters. With all that has been offered for younger people in this manifesto, there really needs to be a response to justify any further courting of that demographic.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Garjon said:
If we don't get a 57% turnout from the younger vote this time at least, Labour are going to have to move much further to the right to appease older voters. With all that has been offered for younger people in this manifesto, there really needs to be a response to justify any further courting of that demographic.
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Yeah, you have to admit, if the youth don't turn up for this, they're not turning up for anything.
 
D

Dorsal Axe

Member
The YouGov poll is probably a tad optimistic for Labour, but I don't think it's as much of an outlier as some think. The Conservatives have been very worried in the past couple of weeks. I can only assume their internal projections are perhaps a bit closer to YouGov numbers than, say ICM. Otherwise IMO they'd be a lot more confident and not having these various meltdowns (despite a poor campaign).
 
M

mo60

Member
Dorsal Axe said:
The YouGov poll is probably a tad optimistic for Labour, but I don't think it's as much of an outlier as some think. The Conservatives have been very worried in the past couple of weeks. I can only assume their internal projections are perhaps a bit closer to YouGov numbers than, say ICM. Otherwise IMO they'd be a lot more confident and not having these various meltdowns (despite a poor campaign).
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Yeah. I doubt the tories are going to be winning this election by like 3 points but I don't think it's a guarantee that they will win this election in a landslide anymore.
 
C

curiouscharles

Member
TheOnlyOneHeEverFeared said:
The more I see of Corbyn the more I like him.
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As a Canadian with very little understanding of the political history of the UK [only lived in London for 3 years from 24-27 years old, so pardon my ignorance], I fucking love Jeremy Corbyn.

Like, literally an English Bernie Sanders in my eyes.

All I seem to see in the media is him being trashed though, which is highly confusing...


Royal_Phalanx said:
Hopefully since the youth vote actually went out for the referendum the same will be the case here.
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did they?

i thought i'd read the youth turnout was poor [hence the unfavorable result].

I DONT KNOW ANYTHING
 
G

Ghost

Chili Con Carnage!
Garjon said:
If we don't get a 57% turnout from the younger vote this time at least, Labour are going to have to move much further to the right to appease older voters. With all that has been offered for younger people in this manifesto, there really needs to be a response to justify any further courting of that demographic.
Click to expand...

I think people see that number and assume it's lazy students who don't vote but you have to remember only about 30% of 18 year olds go on to university. There is a real chance that Corbyn is only getting through to people who mostedly would have voted anyway, if not as enthusiastically.
 
J

jem0208

Member
Crab said:
Yeah, you have to admit, if the youth don't turn up for this, they're not turning up for anything.
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I'm not sure about that.


May is definitely terrible but there isn't exactly a ton of enthusiasm for Corbyn either. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a fair amount of apathy from young voters this election.
 
G

gun_haver

Member
jem0208 said:
I'm not sure about that.


May is definitely terrible but there isn't exactly a ton of enthusiasm for Corbyn either. I wouldn't be surprised if there is a fair amount of apathy from young voters this election.
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i guess we're gonna find out but i think yeah holding corbyn back is that the UK is in the terrible position of having voted for brexit and therefore no politician could do the kind of 'fuck EVERYTHING we're doing let's bring out the sun' campaign necessary for the kind of upset corbyn needs, although he has done very well in getting this close. but still, i guess we're gonna find out.
 
M

Miles Quaritch

Member
OverBlood 3 said:
The Telegraph are saying Amber Rudd's father passed away 48 hours ago.

It makes May ducking out 10 times worse.

Edit: Actually what the hell, it's awful.
Click to expand...

So it was a calculated move. If she did well, they wouldn't bring it up, if she did poorly, they'd bring it up to garner some sympathy.

Terrible all round.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Labour don't need to close it all the way, though. They need to get it to about 6 points to force a hung parliament (dependent on vote distribution). We're a point or two off. It's going to be a nailbiter.
 
C

Coriolanus

Banned
kinda prefer that tories keep a nice lead, really. Brexit negotiations will crash and burn so god damn hard that labour will be better off without any culpability.
 
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