Support NeoGAF

[rakka]

391,000 isn't "nearly half a million," that is more than 100,000 from half a million which is pretty damn far if they sell 3,000 a week.

And if it sells at a steady rate of 3000 a week for the next 4 years, approx end of this gen, it will pass 1million.

Of course that's not counting fluctuations in sales, but its certainly not "insane" to predict 1 mil LTD is it?

It's not like there aren't any more significant releases, or unnannounced games.

 

[jimbo]

391,000 isn't "nearly half a million," that is more than 100,000 from half a million which is pretty damn far if they sell 3,000 a week.

It's also about 5 months short of it being at the 2 years mark and has about 3 pretty decent size bumps to go. Halo 3, AC6 and LO.

For the record the 360 sold over 100k in NOV+DEC of last year with basically just BD....so 500k is pretty much in the bag for this year.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

And using the same argument, if the wii sold 70,000 for the next two years it would sell 7,280,000 consoles and that is also being unrealistic with the assumption that the first place console will sell 70,000 consoles during the holiday season.

And if it sells at a steady rate of 3000 a week for the next 4 years, approx end of this gen, it will pass 1million.

Of course that's not counting fluctuations in sales, but its certainly not "insane" to predict 1 mil LTD is it?

It's not like there aren't any more significant releases, or unnannounced games.

It is insane because it assumes that the sales will continue the way it is for the next 4 years, instead of doing what a last place console does and trend DOWNWARD in sales. XBOX sold 40 consoles in a week in many instances before the replacement came out. There is nothing that suggests that XBOX 360 wont follow the same fate as time moves forward.

 

[Sharp]

It's also about 5 months short of it being at the 2 years mark and has about 3 pretty decent size bumps to go. Halo 3, AC6 and LO.

For the record the 360 sold over 100k in NOV+DEC of last year with basically just BD....so 500k is pretty much in the bag for this year.

jimbo, I hate to say this, but a lot of those 360s were returned. People bought them, played Blue Dragon, and returned them.

 

[Innotech]

And if it sells at a steady rate of 3000 a week for the next 4 years, approx end of this gen, it will pass 1million.

Of course that's not counting fluctuations in sales, but its certainly not "insane" to predict 1 mil LTD is it?

yes it is insane, simply because the xbox360 wont last 4 more years in Japan at 3k/week. It will tail off into the hundreds and wont ever reach a million. but I think 600k is a fairly realistic and optimistic goal for them.

 

[rakka]

And using the same argument, if the wii sold 70,000 for the next two years it would sell 7,280,000 consoles and that is also being unrealistic with the assumption that the first place console will sell 70,000 consoles during the holiday season.

Bumps during holidays aren't exclusive to first place consoles..

 

[Innotech]

Bumps during holidays aren't exclusive to first place consoles..

lets look at the bump for Ps3 during golden week...from 12k to 14k. amazing.
The bump for Wii went from about 60k to over 100k for two weeks.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

It's also about 5 months short of it being at the 2 years mark and has about 3 pretty decent size bumps to go. Halo 3, AC6 and LO.

For the record the 360 sold over 100k in NOV+DEC of last year with basically just BD....so 500k is pretty much in the bag for this year.

That is with the assumption that those games will sell hardware.

XBOX 360 shows there is a hardcore demographic of shooter fans, but odds are that when those games are released many of those will have owned the console. It is kind of like how the XBOX 360 is in the USA, but on a magnified level.

The core MS owners have the console, and there isn't much that those games can do to pull the core gamers. They need to appeal to casual fans to get Wii....no PS3 level numbers. That isn't happening at all in Japan.

 

[jimbo]

If the 360 sold 3,000 every week from this moment forward, it would take 204 weeks (4 years from now) for it to hit 1 million.

Yeah except for that whole pesky holiday season and sales bumps that fall in between your linear math. That's why I said you need basic math skills AND common sense.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Bumps during holidays aren't exclusive to first place consoles..

Bumps are magnified for first place consoles, and lessened for 2nd and 3rd place consoles.

lets look at the bump for Ps3 during golden week...from 12k to 14k. amazing.
The bump for Wii went from about 60k to over 100k for two weeks.

Beaten :lol

Yeah except for that whole pesky holiday season and sales bumps that fall in between your linear math. That's why I said you need basic math skills AND common sense.

We tend to forget that the bumps for 2nd and 3rd place consoles are far less than the first place consoles. This isn't the USA where EVERYBODY does well.

 

[Sapapayo]

Because they have common sense and realize that when prices drop more people will buy the PS3?

Edit: And I don't expect any of those to really do that much more than what we saw this week IF THE PS3 STAYS AT THE SAME PRICE. Which we all know it won't.

Ps3 price in japan != price in europe or usa before price drop.


Oh and Darji, if you read me, it's not fair to try to post like a gentleman when you're just a sony fanboy in reality. Don't derail threads with such crap arguments please.

 

[bc226]

i do not post very often however i really would like to know is there some way this jimbo person could be perma banned. I mean it really seems hes trying the hardest to make all his fantasies come true the facts be damned. It really does seem his sole intent is just to annoy.

 

[Sharp]

i do not post very often however i really would like to know is there some way this jimbo person could be perma banned. I mean it really seems hes trying the hardest to make all his fantasies come true the facts be damned. It really does seem his sole intent is just to annoy.

jimbo is not a bad person. He just loves his 360 very, very much.

 

[rakka]

lets look at the bump for Ps3 during golden week...from 12k to 14k. amazing.
The bump for Wii went from about 60k to over 100k for two weeks.

Why ignore the PS3's 30k bump this week?

Bumps are magnified for first place consoles, and lessened for 2nd and 3rd place consoles.

Of course -- the Wii is a ****ing monster this gen.

However, my point is, I really don't see how it is impossible for 360 LTD to reach 1 million in Japan. There are plenty of significant games not yet released, perhaps also unannounced.

You're certain that a game appealing to the Japanese will never be announced for the 360 for the rest of this gen?

Anything could happen.

 

[Parl]

Actually, I made that claim, not panther.

And it would take a MIRACLE for the 360 to hit 1 million in Japan. Do the math.

I don't think 360 getting a million is that inconceivable. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if it happened. It's been out for 20 months, and sales this year are better than last year. Nearly double for a typical week, iirc. With LO this fall (?) it could bump 360 sales to be at about 4-5k per typical week in 2008, which would be about 300,000 just for 2008 if it kept it up (accounting for Christmas period), which is could do because 360 has kept its huge advantage over last year's sale, this year.

I know dead consoles normally end up selling worse and worse as the generation goes through, but 360 sales have picked up the pace this year, despite competition starting from Wii, and the similarly positioned PlayStation 3.

 

[Deku]

Lets just bump it down for 4 to 3 years and call it a day. Still, the point stands quite well.

 

[jimbo]

That is with the assumption that those games will sell hardware.

XBOX 360 shows there is a hardcore demographic of shooter fans, but odds are that when those games are released many of those will have owned the console. It is kind of like how the XBOX 360 is in the USA, but on a magnified level.

The core MS owners have the console, and there isn't much that those games can do to pull the core gamers. They need to appeal to casual fans to get Wii....no PS3 level numbers. That isn't happening at all in Japan.

Except that it isn't an assumption that great software = sales bumps. It's PROVEN FACT. It's reality. As you're seeing with MNG5, as you saw with ES...heck even Oblivion managed to move some units.....OBLIVION!

That argument never worked for the US, never proved right, and it doesn't work for Japan. Good games move software, and not everyone jumps on the bandwagon from the beginning. ESPECIALLY when it comes to the 360 in Japan.

 

[jimbo]

Lets just bump it down for 4 to 3 years and call it a day. Still, the point stands quite well.

Great, look what you've done now. Now I AM CERTAINLY going to get banned.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

I know dead consoles normally end up selling worse and worse as the generation goes through, but 360 sales have picked up the pace this year, despite competition starting from Wii, and the similarly positioned PlayStation 3.

As this generation has proven, 2nd place consoles can carve a niche for themselves.

The XBOX 360 is last place, which is not 2nd place. It also has the game lineup that appeals the least to the Japanese.

Except that it isn't an assumption that great software = sales bumps. It's PROVEN FACT. It's reality. As you're seeing with MNG5, as you saw with ES...heck even Oblivion managed to move some units.....OBLIVION!

That argument never worked for the US, never proved right, and it doesn't work for Japan. Good games move software, and not everyone jumps on the bandwagon from the beginning. ESPECIALLY when it comes to the 360 in Japan.

That is with the assumption that the game appeals to the market. You can get the best Japanese developed game and release it in the USA, but if it doesn't appeal to the market it wont sell.

 

[Deku]

Great, look what you've done now. Now I AM CERTAINLY going to get banned.

Good.

 

[Sapapayo]

I remember the time when the PSP will kill the DS. When the DS was just a fade. etc. Same shit today...

 

[bc226]

The other thing i find funny is almost every PS3 defender says wait till the price drops do they not realize that the PS3 is cheaper in Japan then anywhere else in the world, its even cheaper then the clearance sale 60gig unit, but for all that even when the PS3 gets a price drop MS and Nintendo will be right there has well.

 

[Sapapayo]

What's the price in japan for a ps3 please ? (in $ plz)

 

[Xeke]

jimbo is not a bad person. He just loves his 360 very, very much.

Well. I guess thats your take on him. Mine ranges more on the side of idiocy.

 

[AniHawk]

....

 

[Jirotrom]

Why ignore the PS3's 30k bump this week?



Of course -- the Wii is a ****ing monster this gen.

However, my point is, I really don't see how it is impossible for 360 LTD to reach 1 million in Japan. There are plenty of significant games not yet released, perhaps also unannounced.

You're certain that a game appealing to the Japanese will never be announced for the 360 for the rest of this gen?

Anything could happen.

the ps3 bumped up 30k? Thats friggen amazing.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

I remember the time when the PSP will kill the DS. When the DS was just a fade. etc. Same shit today...

That was said on the forums, but it never happened in terms of reality.

Kinda like Jimbo's hypothesis.

People wished the PSP would kill the DS and argued that point, Jimbo wishes that the XBOX 360 would sell a million and he argues that point.

 

[KINGMOKU]

Great, look what you've done now. Now I AM CERTAINLY going to get banned.

Wait a second, your trying to blame someone else for you possibly getting banned? Again?

I know this sounds crazy, but do you think it could...ya know, be .......you?


Just throwing it out there.

 

[gimz]

well, the Wii will certainly stop selling in Japan someday, when all household in japan owns one, or two

and the market shared btw Wii and PS3 will be closer days by days

 

[rakka]

What's the price in japan for a ps3 please ? (in $ plz)

a bit over $500... i think.

the ps3 bumped up 30k? Thats friggen amazing.

Yes it did. Of course it was ignored and instead someone brought up the 2k increase during golden week, "llolol no bump for PS3/360".

 

[duderon]

God, tonight's new MC thread is going to be a shitstorm of epic proportions.

 

[saelz8]

When do MC get released?

 

[Hcoregamer00]

God, tonight's new MC thread is going to be a shitstorm of epic proportions.

Meltdown CONFIRMED? :lol

 

[jimbo]

As this generation has proven, 2nd place consoles can carve a niche for themselves.

The XBOX 360 is last place, which is not 2nd place. It also has the game lineup that appeals the least to the Japanese.



That is with the assumption that the game appeals to the market. You can get the best Japanese developed game and release it in the USA, but if it doesn't appeal to the market it wont sell.

GC was in third place last gen in both US and Europe, and I say 20 million is a pretty nice size niche. So I don't know where this myth that only 2nd place consoles can carve out niches comes from, but I assure you, it certainly is a myth.

Once again, I say Eternal Sonata, a Japanese game moved Japanese sales. Now you just saw a very miniscule bump by Oblivion, a Western game move Japanese sales. Call me crazy, but I just have to believe that at least 1 million Japanese will find SOMETHING out of what the rest of the world considers an incredible line-up....appealing to them too.

Halo 3, Ace Combat 6 and LO will all move sales. And each will appeal in different amounts but they will each move some consoles, as will just a general holiday season and any price drops MS does.

Look Halo 3 is only 1 month and a half away....If it moves hardware when it's released will you agree to concede the point?No bet. No threats. I just want you to concede the point.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

GC was in third place last gen in both US and Europe, and I say 20 million is a pretty nice size niche. So I don't know where this myth that only 2nd place consoles can carve out niches comes from, but I assure you, it certainly is a myth.

Once again, I say Eternal Sonata, a Japanese game moved Japanese sales. Now you just saw a very miniscule bump by Oblivion, a Western game move Japanese sales. Call me crazy, but I just have to believe that at least 1 million Japanese will find SOMETHING out of what the rest of the world considers an incredible line-up....appealing to them too.

Halo 3, Ace Combat 6 and LO will all move sales. And each will appeal in different amounts but they will each move some consoles, as will just a general holiday season and any price drops MS does.

Look Halo 3 is only 1 month and a half away....If it moves hardware when it's released will you agree to concede the point?No bet. No threats. I just want you to concede the point.

Halo 3 will sell no doubt, the question is if it will be the magnitude you are assuming.

Blue Dragon levels :lol

 

[jimbo]

Wait a second, your trying to blame someone else for you possibly getting banned? Again?

I know this sounds crazy, but do you think it could...ya know, be .......you?


Just throwing it out there.

Sarcasm detector broken?

 

[Brofist]

Wow 6 different consoles represented in the top 10, is that a record?

 

[icecream]

XBOX 360 shows there is a hardcore demographic of shooter fans, but odds are that when those games are released many of those will have owned the console.

Except every genre of game on the 360 has hit the top 40, not just shooters.

That is with the assumption that the game appeals to the market. You can get the best Japanese developed game and release it in the USA, but if it doesn't appeal to the market it wont sell.

So are you suggesting that LO, AC6, and Halo3 won't appeal at all to potential buyers of the console?

Not every buyer buys a console for one specific game, some actually wait until there are a few of them. And then there's also the assumption that everyone has already found 'the one game that makes them buy the console.' There's nothing that would exclude a BD-like bump for LO simply because it's not the same game... there are still many distinct niches that LO targets that BD did not. To discount its effect on hardware sales at this point is silly... it'll move units, no doubt. The question is how many.

 

[jimbo]

Halo 3 will sell no doubt, the question is if it will be the magnitude you are assuming.

Blue Dragon levels :lol

Please don't avoid the question. Will you or will you not?

 

[KINGMOKU]

Sarcasm detector broken?

Yours is.

Sucka!

 

[TJ Spyke]

What's the price in japan for a ps3 please ? (in $ plz)

Amazon Japan has the 60GB model at ￥59,980 (including tax), that is about $504 US.

Halo 3 will not move that many systems in Japan, it will provide a small insignificant bump at most.

 

[KINGMOKU]

As this generation has proven, 2nd place consoles can carve a niche for themselves.

The XBOX 360 is last place, which is not 2nd place. It also has the game lineup that appeals the least to the Japanese.



That is with the assumption that the game appeals to the market. You can get the best Japanese developed game and release it in the USA, but if it doesn't appeal to the market it wont sell.

Dont tell that to uncleguito. He thinks the Wii is carving out a niche, and the other two are mainstream.

Spoiler

and they call me crazy

 

[jimbo]

Yours is.

Sucka!

:lol

 

[Darji]

GC was in third place last gen in both US and Europe, and I say 20 million is a pretty nice size niche. So I don't know where this myth that only 2nd place consoles can carve out niches comes from, but I assure you, it certainly is a myth.

Once again, I say Eternal Sonata, a Japanese game moved Japanese sales. Now you just saw a very miniscule bump by Oblivion, a Western game move Japanese sales. Call me crazy, but I just have to believe that at least 1 million Japanese will find SOMETHING out of what the rest of the world considers an incredible line-up....appealing to them too.

Halo 3, Ace Combat 6 and LO will all move sales. And each will appeal in different amounts but they will each move some consoles, as will just a general holiday season and any price drops MS does.

Look Halo 3 is only 1 month and a half away....If it moves hardware when it's released will you agree to concede the point?No bet. No threats. I just want you to concede the point.

i dont really think that halo3 will move hardwaresales. And i am pretty sure that resistance will outsell halo 3^^

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Please don't avoid the question. Will you or will you not?

I am not avoiding the question, I am laughing at the absurdity that you think that the sales will hit blue dragon levels for the XBOX 360 fall lineup.

I said it before, Halo 3 will sell, but the question is if it it will sell on the level you said before.

Dont tell that to uncleguito. He thinks the Wii is carving out a niche, and the other two are mainstream.

Spoiler

and they call me crazy

Don't tell that to Japan, they don't know about it yet. I think New Zealand and Ireland are Catching on though :lol

 

[Sapapayo]

Wow 6 different consoles represented in the top 10, is that a record?

It's great, but to have thread going crap because some members argue about the future instead of speaking about current sales and current reality, is not.

Go make a thread about the future....

 

[Evlar]

Please don't avoid the question. Will you or will you not?

Of course not. Because "Halo moving units in Japan" != "360 selling 1 million in Japan" or "Bill Gates declared Emperor of Japan" or whatever other fantasies you may have.

 

[Dies Iræ]

You know, Jimbo, the fact that every single person, Xbot or Nintendoid, in this thread strongly disagrees with you should be a HINT.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

You know, Jimbo, the fact that every single person, Xbot or Nintendoid, in this thread strongly disagrees with you should be a HINT.

Or anyone that is remotely sane.

 

[starship]

Now Halo 3 is a system seller in Japan. News at 11 brought to you by mumbo jumbo jimbo. :lol