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[Jokeropia]

When determining the success of a game, you can either use an absolute scale (like Lance Sterns infamous 300k rule) or a relative scale. The former is not viable, so the only real alternative is the relative scale and the question becomes what to base it on. Is there any better candidate for this than publisher expectations, or if they are unknown, retail shipments?

Why are these threads so dead lately?

In completely non-related news, it looks like Wii will overtake PS3 YTD next week

 

[Regulus Tera]

PSP Evangelion Jo - 8,000 (30%)
PS2 Evangelion Jo - 4,000 (20%)

Seems to me like Eva is no longer as big of a franchise as before.




I blame Yoshiyuki Sadamoto and his stupid arse schedule of one chapter every six months.

 

[farnham]

They're not/did not do "good". They might have avoided complete Opoona style disaster, but let's not get carried away.

50 % of the first shipment in the first day means that they will probably sell out their first shipment within the first or second week.. which means marvelous met their expectations

 

[Zachack]

50 % of the first shipment in the first day means that they will probably sell out their first shipment within the first or second week.. which means marvelous met their expectations

Way back when I was in college I remember finals where going in I pinned my expectations on getting a C- for the class because I knew that I hadn't done well and wasn't prepared.

 

[markatisu]

Way back when I was in college I remember finals where going in I pinned my expectations on getting a C- for the class because I knew that I hadn't done well and wasn't prepared.

So are you saying that Marvelous had lowered expectations because the game was crap?

Not sure I follow your line of thinking since quality has nothing to do with sales.

Or are you arguing that they had lowered expectations because they are being realistic and that despite meeting those its nothing to have a party about (which I would probably agree with)

 

[test_account]

So are you saying that Marvelous had lowered expectations because the game was crap?

Not sure I follow your line of thinking since quality has nothing to do with sales.

I would guess that he ment that even if expetations are made, it doesnt neccessarily means that it is a success. Well, maybeit is a success taking the met expectations into account, but not neccessarily a big success, if you know what i mean?

Or are you arguing that they had lowered expectations because they are being realistic and that despite meeting those its nothing to have a party about (which I would probably agree with)

I thought about if this could be a possibility too, that Marvelous' expetations were lowered based on some previous sales of 3rd party games on the Wii.


Who decides the shipping numbers by the way? Is it the publishers who prints up X numbers of copies at first, and then retailers gets to know how many copies that are made and then the retailers order the games? Or are the retailers placing an order first, and then the publisher prints up X numbers of copies based on how many orders they have received from the retailers? I guess that this has been discussed before, but i dont remember what the answer was :\

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Its Fragile and Muramasa follow-up indeed

WII Fragile - 16,000 (45%)
WII Oboro Muramasa - 16,000 (50%)
WII Arc Rise Fantasia - 18,000 (50%)

So its no surprise the same kind of excuses come up again (those that are only used with this kind of software). I even remember me saying it'd happen again with Arc Rise, voila, here we are again (shame the search is still disabled though).

You'd think some people would have learned using absolute scales is stupid, but hey if "its 50%, its good" makes people happy, I'm not going to burst their bubble.

Who decides the shipping numbers by the way? Is it the publishers who only print up X numbers of copies at first, and then retailers gets to know how many copies that are made and then the retailers order the games? Or are the retailers placing an order first, and then the publisher prints up X numbers of copies based on how many orders they have received from the retailers? I guess that this has been discussed before, but i dont remember what the answer was :\

Everyone is involved, from the developer to the publisher to the distributors to the retailers to the preorders to the marketing, even the manufacturer can screw you.

i was thinking the other day, with all the fuss about digital distribution (PSPGO), is there any chance that in the future we are gonna see some charts of those digital games ??

We: hey sony, give us some numbers from digital downloads:
Sony: Of course, PSNetwork has generated over X billion dollars in sales!
We: But....what about the budget re-release of Yuusha no Namaikida in the japanese store?
Sony: wat

 

[donny2112]

if "its 50%, its good" makes people happy, I'm not going to burst their bubble.

50% for the first day is good from the perspective of not leaving extra stock on the shelves. Whether it's good from the perspective of sales for the game itself irrespective of the stock situation requires more information, though. Just looking at Eteric Rice's words, I don't know that you can say which perspective he's referring to.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

50% for the first day is good from the perspective of not leaving extra stock on the shelves. Whether it's good from the perspective of sales for the game itself regardless of the stock situation requires more information, though. Just looking at Eteric Rice's words, I don't know that you can say which perspective he's referring to.

He says its pretty good to have a 50% digestion first day. Its not. It can be pretty good, good, okay, bad or pretty bad. 50% as it is means nothing here, you have to take all the other factors into account to see if its good or not, 50% out of 1000 units isn't pretty good, or it could be if you game breaks at 500 units or if comparable games had sold less than that. I agree with you that 50% first day means you saw right demand coming, but it doesn't mean anything to the performance of the game by itself.

 

[ksamedi]

And here we go

I never understood this either. Who cares if retailers sold trough the shipments. The shipments were low in the first place. A bomb is a bomb. Were not discussing retailer profits here.

 

[Zachack]

50% for the first day is good from the perspective of not leaving extra stock on the shelves.

Not if retailers were counting on that stock to be used for load-bearing.

 

[donny2112]

The shipments were low in the first place.

The question is what determines "low," though. The sales for No More Heroes in the U.S. were "low" (in my opinion), yet they were a rousing success for Grasshopper/Marvelous and enough to greenlight a sequel. The situation is not as clear cut as you're trying to portray it as.

Not if retailers were counting on that stock to be used for load-bearing.

True. I can imagine that retailer orders for the Xbox went up everytime a Typhoon was on its way to Japan. Something to keep the store from blowing away, you know.

 

[donny2112]

Famitsu May 18-24

01./00. [NDS] Sloane and MacHale's Mysterious Story (Level 5) - 58,513 / NEW
02./00. [NDS] Pro Yakyuu Team o Tsukurou! 2 (SEGA) - 46,586 / NEW
03./00. [360] Mass Effect (Microsoft Game Studios) - 18,206 / NEW
04./03. [NDS] Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of the Sky (Nintendo/Pokemon Co.) - 15,046 / 317,570 (-23%)
05./06. [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2 G (BEST) (Capcom) - 14,111 / 727,313 (-7%)
06./01. [PSP] Bleach: Heat the Soul 6 (SCEI) - 13,950 / 55,127 (-66%)
07./04. [NDS] Made in Ore (Wario Ware) (Nintendo) - 13,270 / 146,278 (-29%)
08./08. [WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 12,351 / 3,375,726 (+4%)
09./09. [NDS] Mario & Luigi RPG 3!!! (Nintendo) - 9,833 / 614,908 (-13%)
10./05. [NDS] Dragon Ball Kai: Saiyajin Raishuu (Namco Bandai Games) - 9,382 / 171,656 (-49%)

11./11. [WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii (Namco Bandai Games) - 6,923 / 552,684 (-2%)
12./02. [PSP] Growlanser (Atlus Co.) - 6,235 / 36,545 (-79%)
13./07. [WII] Winning Eleven Playmaker 2009 (Konami) - 5,653 / 20,329 (-61%)
14./14. [NDS] Rhythm Tengoku Gold (Nintendo) - 5,464 / 1,723,899 (-9%)
15./12. [WII] Monster Hunter G (Capcom) - 5,195 / 207,868 (-20%)
16./16. [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) - 5,004 / 2,248,043 (-4%)
17./00. [NDS] Yuuzai x Muzai (Innocence x Guilt) (Namco Bandai Games) - 4,500 / NEW
18./15. [PSP] Persona (Atlus Co.) - 4,437 / 119,439 (-23%)
19./17. [PSP] Sengoku Basara: Battle Heroes (Capcom) - 4,321 / 161,441 (-1%)
20./00. [WII] Takt of Magic (Nintendo) - 4,041 / NEW
21./19. [WII] Wii Sports (Nintendo) - 4,039 / 3,503,511 (+6%)
22./13. [PS2] Jikkyou Power Pro Major League 2009 (Konami) - 4,007 / 66,044 (-38%)
23./20. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo) - 3,872 / 5,492,592 (+3%)
24./00. [NDS] Metal Fight Beyblade (Hudson) - 3,724 / 51,720
25./22. [NDS] Tongari Boushi to Mahou no 365 Nichi (Magician's Quest: Mysterious Times) (Konami) - 3,484 / 385,057 (-6%)
26./29. [NDS] Mario Kart DS (Nintendo) - 3,377 / 3,439,806 (-2%)
27./00. [PSP] SNK Arcade Classics Vol. 1 (SNK Playmore) - 3,369 / NEW
28./00. [NDS] Kirby Super Star Ultra Deluxe (Nintendo) - 3,368 / 1,098,805
29./00. [NDS] Momotarou Dentetsu 20th Anniversary (Hudson) - 3,328 / 272,098
30./26. [WII] Animal Crossing: City Folk (Nintendo) - 3,162 / 1,145,423 (-10%)

*. [NDS] Simple DS Series Vol. 48 The Juror: One Truth, Six Answers (D3 Publisher) - 2,200 / NEW
*. [NDS] Ora ga Omae o Mamoru (I will protect you) (Idea Factory) - 1,200 / NEW
*. [NDS] Yume o Kanaeru Zou (Elephants Live Out a Dream) (Try First) - 880 / NEW


Bar Chart May 18-24 (thanks to JoshuaJSlone/garaph.info)

Note: Image may be delayed from the time of this post, but will automatically show once the data is ready.


Recent Famitsu Top 30s

Apr 20-26, 2009
Apr 27-May 10, 2009
May 11-17, 2009

 

[shykyoichi]

These threads are so dead because the PS3 is no longer in the lead on a weekly basis.

The horde ignores bad news! FOR THE HORDE.

.

 

[Defuser]

Seems to me like Eva is no longer as big of a franchise as before.

Oh yeah?
http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2009-06-05/20000-evangelion-mobile-phones-sell-out-in-5-hours

20,000 Evangelion Mobile Phones Sell Out in 5 Hours

 

[test_account]

What was the bolded text about? I am just curious

Everyone is involved, from the developer to the publisher to the distributors to the retailers to the preorders to the marketing, even the manufacturer can screw you.

I see, but are there some parts that play a bigger role than others when it comes to how many games that are printed to begin with?

 

[Vinnk]

Sad about Arc Rise. It is a really fun game. It got good reviews too. Like the other 2 bombs mentioned Fragile and Oboro Muramasa the advertising was not good. But I have pretty much given up on any company other than Nintendo actually pushing a Wii game.

Then again Nintendo DID actually run ads for Tackt of Magic And that one did even worse so I am not sure if publicity is at fault here.

Seems people are just not interested in playing RPGs on the Wii. Even really good ones like Arc.

 

[EDarkness]

Sad about Arc Rise. It is a really fun game. It got good reviews too. Like the other 2 bombs mentioned Fragile and Oboro Muramasa the advertising was not good. But I have pretty much given up on any company other than Nintendo actually pushing a Wii game.

Then again Nintendo DID actually run ads for Tackt of Magic And that one did even worse so I am not sure if publicity is at fault here.

Seems people are just not interested in playing RPGs on the Wii. Even really good ones like Arc.

I don't see how 18,000 copies first day is a bomb if it's 50% of the shipment. MMV will only sell as many as retail stores request and I don't see a problem with that. Sounds like it did alright and will do okay everywhere else in the world I imagine. Hell, No More Heroes did worse and in the end was a huge success for Suda and the gang. Expecting this game to do better with no name and no real advertising (outside of internet stuff) is being a little unrealistic I think.

 

[cvxfreak]

So, Monster Hunter 3 to a million? Seems like a sure bet.

 

[schuelma]

So, Monster Hunter 3 to a million? Seems like a sure bet.

I think it has a pretty great shot. Seems like advertising is going to be very very heavy and a real smart move by Nintendo to launch the new color on the same day. Capcom might get some sales just from people wanting a game to go with their new black Wii.

 

[test_account]

I don't see how 18,000 copies first day is a bomb if it's 50% of the shipment. MMV will only sell as many as retail stores request and I don't see a problem with that.

I agree that it can be good in itself to sell 50% of the shipment on the first day, and by this itself it might not be a bomb, but can there be a possibility that the retailers requested fewer copies of the game than MMV first though that the retailers would request? Is 18,000 for a RPG on the most sold console in Japan good or bad? I know that this is only the first day numbers though, and it might end up selling quite more than 18,000 when it is all said and done. We will see what happends

Sounds like it did alright and will do okay everywhere else in the world I imagine. Hell, No More Heroes did worse and in the end was a huge success for Suda and the gang. Expecting this game to do better with no name and no real advertising (outside of internet stuff) is being a little unrealistic I think.

I dont think that Suda was too happy with the sales of No More Heros in Japan, at least i remember that he said something like that to begin with after No More Heroes was launched in Japan. Maybe he changed his opinion after the game kept on selling a few more copies in Japan though, i dont know :\

But ye, the worldwide numbers for No More Heroes seems to be pretty good Maybe something similar will happend with Arc Rise Fantasia as well.

I think it has a pretty great shot. Seems like advertising is going to be very very heavy and a real smart move by Nintendo to launch the new color on the same day. Capcom might get some sales just from people wanting a game to go with their new black Wii.

I agree, a new colored Wii + Monster Hunter 3 bundle might sell pretty good

 

[donny2112]

So, Monster Hunter 3 to a million? Seems like a sure bet.

The Black Wii + MH3 combo makes me think another quarter million is likely, which raises mine to ~750K. I think a lot more would be willing to jump into Wii for a new color and a franchise they like than just for a franchise they like. Now, it's just up to Nintendo to make sure the stock is there for the combo. In the announcement thread I said 300K, and I think that's still a good number to have available.

I dont think that Suda was too happy with the sales of No More Heros in Japan, at least i remember that he said something like that to begin with after No More Heroes was launched in Japan. Maybe he changed his opinion after the game kept on selling a few more copies in Japan though, i dont know :\

But ye, the worldwide numbers for No More Heroes seems to be pretty good Maybe something similar will happend with Arc Rise Fantasia as well.

Arc Rise Fantasia's first week will be around No More Heroes LTD in Japan, just to put things in perspective here.

 

[Jokeropia]

What was the bolded text about? I am just curious

The "completely non-related news" might not be so non-related after all. I suspect schuelma did that on purpose.

 

[BishopLamont]

Very nice move between Nintendo and Capcom, couple that with new DSi color + DQIX, seems like Japan's gonna get a wake up call.

 

[test_account]

Arc Rise Fantasia's first week will be around No More Heroes LTD in Japan, just to put things in perspective here.

Oh, i thought that No More Heroes had an LTD of around 40k in Japan for some reason. I tried to find the worldwide sale numbers for No More Heroes not that long ago, so i checked on Wikipedia. I guess that is where i saw the 40k number for Japan, but i checked Wikipedia again now and i see no mention of 40k, so i dont know where i got that from hehe. I guess i should have checked Garaph.info instead. Thanks for the info

The "completely non-related news" might not be so non-related after all. I suspect schuelma did that on purpose.

Ah ye, i understand, that the Wii YTD will pass the PS3 YTD in not that long, and then there might be more stuff to discuss, so the Media Create threads will be more active, correct? I was just wondering what the bolded text ment

Aproximately when will the Wii YTD will pass the PS3 YTD by the way?

 

[Vinnk]

Arc is probably not a "bomba" (I am starting to hate that word). But when you consider how much time and effort went into this game and when you read the reviews it just seems like it deserves a lot more.

But as people wrote before I think MMV said while it was still in production that they intended to sell 35k in Japan (is that right?) and they will likely sell that. And I am assuming that the developers wold not make predictions where they would be loosing money by releasing the game.

And with the wester sales still to come I am sure they will do ok but 18k for a major RPG (in scale though apparently not in hype) launch is still nothing to jump for joy about. It might be argued that the game did "fine" but its a big jump to say the game did "great".

That said, you should all get this game.

 

[duckroll]

Seems to me like Eva is no longer as big of a franchise as before.

The new movie was the top grossing non-Ghibli anime in like forever. The DVD release is the top selling DVD of last year. The blu-ray release just broke the blu-ray sales record in Japan. Etc.

 

[Ashour]

Nice to see all the hardware going up.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Arc Rise Fantasia's first week will be around No More Heroes LTD in Japan, just to put things in perspective here.

Do we have anything of NMH other than its appearance in the 2007 Top 500 a few weeks from launch?

Aproximately when will the Wii YTD will pass the PS3 YTD by the way?

Next week's MC numbers, unless the Wii-PS3 weekly number is quite less than it's been the previous four weeks.

 

[Eteric Rice]

Hopefully Monster Hunter Tri gives a boost to third party games in general. Doesn't that tend to happen when big games are released?

 

[Dalthien]

Do we have anything of NMH other than its appearance in the 2007 Top 500 a few weeks from launch?

The most recent number I have for it is 27,873 through Mar 9/08.

 

[FateBreaker]

nice.. arc rise fantasia and muramasa both doing good makes me happy... will get it when it hits NA or Europe

Come on. 18k, good? Even for low-budget, cheap-as-fuck games that is barely warranted as good. 18000 x 50 = 900,000. (I'm sure the price is more expensive and that it will have legs and sell more, but still.) I'll never understand this. OH YAY, THIS GAME IS SELLING 18k ON WII GOD THIS IS AWESOME GLAD TO SEE AWESOME SALES. (It will probably sell the same amount in America, if not less.) But, you know, when something like The Last Remnant comes along--which other than Famitsu, got pretty lame scores and is on a system with a FARRRR LESS userbase in Japan--and it sells 170k~ in Japan, 140k~ in America, and probably a similar amount in UK+other regions, THOSE are terrible sales. These double standards crack me up sometimes.

I just don't understand it. People preaching that Marusama, Arc Rise, and Fragile, all around 15k, sold well...it's sugercoating to an extreme.

 

[Deku]

Come on. 18k, good? Even for low-budget, cheap-as-fuck games that is barely warranted as good. 18000 x 50 = 900,000. (I'm sure the price is more expensive and that it will have legs and sell more, but still.) I'll never understand this. OH YAY, THIS GAME IS SELLING 18k ON WII GOD THIS IS AWESOME GLAD TO SEE AWESOME SALES. (It will probably sell the same amount in America, if not less.) But, you know, when something like The Last Remnant comes along--which other than Famitsu, got pretty lame scores and is on a system with a FARRRR LESS userbase in Japan--and it sells 170k~ in Japan, 140k~ in America, and probably a similar amount in UK+other regions, THOSE are terrible sales. These double standards crack me up sometimes.

I just don't understand it. People preaching that Marusama, Arc Rise, and Fragile, all around 15k, sold well...it's sugercoating to an extreme.

Well to be fair 170k for a SquareEnix game on any platform is going to be called Terrible.

Though Fragile and Arc Rise Fantasia have the aura of being major titles, largely because no one else is stepping up to fill the void in those genres, they are what they are. A lot of games debut in the range, and though I can't say MMV or NamBan will be pleased with those numbers, the arbitrary nature of MC discussion and the need by supporters of varios platforms to make a point, can usually get in the way of just taking the numbers as they are.

Bomba? Well NMH did manage to do quite well outside Japan and it's actually getting a sequel. I doubt many of the MC commentators of the day would have envisioned that happening though I'm too lazy to find that thread.

The Last Remanant's aborted PS3 release seems to say something else.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Imageepoch first day comparison

2009/3 NDS Seventh Dragon (SEGA) - 60k
2008/9 NDS World Destruction (SEGA) - 43k
2008/5 NDS Luminous Arc 2 Will (Marvelous) - 20k
2007/2 NDS Luminous Arc (Marvelous) - 19k
2009/6 WII Arc Rise Fantasia (Marvelous) - 18k

They were going higher and higher but then, oh wait its 50%, its good.

 

[Deku]

Imageepoch first day comparison

They were going higher and higher but then, oh wait its 50%, its good.

Don't know why you're so hung up about that. % sell through have been reported for a long time as a quick and dirty way to track sales to expectations.

It takes into account what they sold vs what was shipped by the publisher and ordered by retail. It's not an unreliable measure of how a game is performing to expectations of the supply chain.

But like anything using that statistic as an absolute measure of success or failure is problematic. But I think you need to lay off on this, cause you know, maybe the people who has been doing this actually know what they're doing.

 

[jeremy1456]

Imageepoch first day comparison

2009/3 NDS Seventh Dragon (SEGA) - 60k
2008/9 NDS World Destruction (SEGA) - 43k
2008/5 NDS Luminous Arc 2 Will (Marvelous) - 20k
2007/2 NDS Luminous Arc (Marvelous) - 19k
2009/6 WII Arc Rise Fantasia (Marvelous) - 18k

They were going higher and higher but then, oh wait its 50%, its good.

:lol

I'm not sure why you're being so adamant about this. Does someone being wrong on the internet keep you up at night?

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Don't know why you're so hung up about that. % sell through have been reported for a long time as a quick and dirty way to track sales to expectations.

It takes into account what they sold vs what was shipped by the publisher and ordered by retail. It's not an unreliable measure of how a game is performing to expectations of the supply chain.

But like anything using that statistic as an absolute measure of success or failure is problematic. But I think you need to lay off on this, cause you know, maybe the people who has been doing this actually know what they're doing.

Yeah, but the expectations of the supply chain the first day means nothing to the expectations for the game and thus qualifying its performance, which is why the percentage stand-alone means nothing else than a simple under/over shipment in the retail channel, and even in that case, qualifying just looking at the percentage without taking into account the software it is would also be simplistic.

I already said they know what they are doing, its always the same suspects and the same type of software involved. I also predicted it'd be brought up again when Arc Rise released (but the search is still disabled). Let me have a wild guess that it'll be brought up again when Little King Story releases, for example.

:lol

I'm not sure why you're being so adamant about this. Does someone being wrong on the internet keep you up at night?

Hell no, it isn't bed-time yet in my country. I'd rather stick forks in my eyes than lose a single minute of bed-time discussing in the internets, so I just do it in my free time.

 

[jeremy1456]

Yeah, but the expectations of the supply chain the first day means nothing to the expectations for the game and thus qualifying its performance, which is why the percentage stand-alone means nothing else than a simple under/over shipment in the retail channel, and even in that case, qualifying just looking at the percentage without taking into account the software it is would also be simplistic.

I already said they know what they are doing, its always the same suspects and the same type of software involved. I also predicted it'd be brought up again when Arc Rise released (but the search is still disabled). Let me have a wild guess that it'll be brought up again when Little King Story releases, for example.


Hell no, it isn't bed-time yet in my country. I'd rather stick forks in my eyes than lose a single minute of bed-time discussing in the internets, so I just do it in my free time.

Well keep up the good work, friendly neighborhood crusader of sales justice.

 

[sprocket]

I hink a price cut would send the ps3 far above the Wii weekly sales in japan.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Well keep up the good work, friendly neighborhood crusader of sales justice.

Hey, I'm spanish, I'd be an inquisitor*, not a crusader


*

Spoiler

just in case, its a joke, I'm pretty atheist myself

 

[jeremy1456]

I hink a price cut would send the ps3 far above the Wii weekly sales in japan.

For how long though?

I think the effect would last a month at tops, and then Sony would be right back down to the same numbers they're pulling now only they would be losing more money.

 

[Busaiku]

Doesn't Marvelous expect like 72k for Little King's Story?
I know they expected something like 2 and 3 times that for North America and Europe respectively.

I can't recall their expectations for Arc Rise Fantasia though, but I'd seen some internet ads on various Japanese sites.

 

[Jokeropia]

Shipment sell-through is a better measure of success/failure than any arbitrary absolute bar. The best thing would of course be if we knew Marvelous expectations for it.

Ah ye, i understand, that the Wii YTD will pass the PS3 YTD in not that long, and then there might be more stuff to discuss, so the Media Create threads will be more active, correct?

Basically, the last few months saw a lot of big releases for PS3 which prompted a bunch of new people to come visit the threads. (Activity tends to increase when the status quo is shaken.) Now that things are returning to a more normal state, activity goes down.

 

[-Kh-]

I hink a price cut would send the ps3 far above the Wii weekly sales in japan.

Any reasoning behind this? Or can we apply the same case but the other way around?

"a price cut would send the Wii far above the PS3 weekly sales in japan."


The PS3 ran out of important releases and that's why it fell below the Wii again, who hasn't had any significant release for the most part of the year.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

Imageepoch first day comparison

2009/3 NDS Seventh Dragon (SEGA) - 60k
2008/9 NDS World Destruction (SEGA) - 43k
2008/5 NDS Luminous Arc 2 Will (Marvelous) - 20k
2007/2 NDS Luminous Arc (Marvelous) - 19k
2009/6 WII Arc Rise Fantasia (Marvelous) - 18k

They were going higher and higher but then, oh wait its 50%, its good.

Of course, all of those other titles are on the DS. It's not a completely fair comparison. It's also right at the same level as the other two games of theirs that were published by Marvelous. Seventh Dragon and World Destruction were published by Sega, and there's a pretty big difference between those two publishers.

If you just look at their Marvelous published games, this seems completely in line. And Luminous Arc was obviously considered a success.

 

[thestopsign]

Doesn't Marvelous expect like 72k for Little King's Story?
I know they expected something like 2 and 3 times that for North America and Europe respectively.

I can't recall their expectations for Arc Rise Fantasia though, but I'd seen some internet ads on various Japanese sites.

When is Little King's Story coming out in Japan? I hope it's sometime in between Wii Sports Resort and Monster Hunter Tri, that would probably maximize its sales potential.

 

[donny2112]

but 18k for a major RPG (in scale though apparently not in hype) launch

It's the first day sales. First week will probably be around 30K.

But, you know, when something like The Last Remnant comes along--which other than Famitsu, got pretty lame scores and is on a system with a FARRRR LESS userbase in Japan--and it sells 170k~ in Japan, 140k~ in America, and probably a similar amount in UK+other regions, THOSE are terrible sales. These double standards crack me up sometimes.

They crack me up, too.

Imageepoch first day comparison

2009/3 NDS Seventh Dragon (SEGA) - 60k
2008/9 NDS World Destruction (SEGA) - 43k
2008/5 NDS Luminous Arc 2 Will (Marvelous) - 20k
2007/2 NDS Luminous Arc (Marvelous) - 19k
2009/6 WII Arc Rise Fantasia (Marvelous) - 18k

They were going higher and higher but then, oh wait its 50%, its good.

Amazing how it was going up and up on the Wii, and now this Wii game didn't follow the trend. Shocking really. Why did you put an "NDS" in front of those Wii games?

AGAIN, 50% is good sell-through for the first day from a retailer perspective. Not too much, not too little.

 

[Regulus Tera]

Oh yeah?
http://www.animenewsnetwork.com/news/2009-06-05/20000-evangelion-mobile-phones-sell-out-in-5-hours

20,000 Evangelion Mobile Phones Sell Out in 5 Hours

The new movie was the top grossing non-Ghibli anime in like forever. The DVD release is the top selling DVD of last year. The blu-ray release just broke the blu-ray sales record in Japan. Etc.

THINK HOW MUCH THEY WOULD SELL IF SADAMOTO HAD A REGULAR SCHEDULE

also ducky i liked your other avatar more

 

[MarzipaNMOS]

ARF is probably going to do 27-28k first week then sell another 5-6k in the top 30 and fall off the charts, like Fragile, Muramasa, and to a lesser extent, Rune Factory. It's dissapointing that the Wii still hasn't gotten a big budget RPG to capture the mainstream JRPG audience. It seems like the same 30k people are buying all of the games in the category again and again :\

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Amazing how it was going up and up on the Wii, and now this Wii game didn't follow the trend. Shocking really. Why did you put an "NDS" in front of those Wii games?

AGAIN, 50% is good sell-through for the first day from a retailer perspective. Not too much, not too little.

To note the Wii title is the one that costs magically 0 to make, its also made in 3 days by 2 guys who had no previous experience and its the littlest project for the same studio.

Pretty considerate of us to qualify games performance by how happy are the retailers selling their allocation.