charlequin said:
That would mean that we only had one home console until Move came out, at which point we had two. The existence of motion control is if anything a more arbitrary standard to judge by here than "handheld" vs. "home console."
The set of genres possible on Wii and PS360 aren't fully overlapped either. :lol
Regardless, the point is more about how these systems operate from a business and market perspective. The games and genres on different systems never align perfectly, but they still compete against one another when they're directly jockeying for the same consumer spending and the same development capital. In Japan now, the idea of "handheld" and "console" development as entirely separate worlds is basically gone and there's demonstrable evidence that the separation is reduced or absent on the consumer side as well.
I haven't had time to respond to your point properly, but I would argue that from a consumer perspective, usage patterns are still the significant differentiator between the handheld and console markets, just as it is between the fixed and mobile phone markets.
Changing technology, lifestyles and perceptions of the products in the marketplace have changed, however. Just as many gen Yers forgo the landline and go mobile only thanks to falling prices, better coverage and a lifestyle on the move, more people in Japan are going handheld-only thanks to better software, the commoditisation of wireless Internet and the existing downtime commuters face each day on public transport.
Will there always be a market for fixed line phones? Most certainly: they provide a contact point akin to a fixed address, are cheaper to use and are more reliable - values mobile phones will never be able to match thanks to the perceived "disposability" of the mobile device, the architecture of the cellular network and the nature of the wireless channel.
Likewise, the home console provides larger screen entertainment at home, multiplayer on the couch, arguably better ergonomics and the overwhelming majority of high-production, long play session tent-pole games. Not being constrained by the problems of size, portability or battery life, handhelds cannot hope to match consoles on a point-by-point basis and certainly do not provide the same type of experiences.
My view is that existing pressures combined with new technology and changing lifestyles are the cause of the handheld revolution, rather than handhelds somehow "catching up" to consoles in some way (software, production values) and the markets merging. The values that differentiate both are still there and as long as that is true, there will be needs each provides that do not overlap.
Yes, the home console market is shrinking. I say that much like the market for phones, this is because a section of the market that was always underserved now have a new kind of product that meets their needs better. This isn't to say that the iPhone competes with your Samsung cordless landline phone directly however, and the number of people with both will be much higher than people with two competing mobile phones.
Apply this to the game market and you see the same thing - multi-console ownership has always been low and remains so. Same with multi-handheld ownership I wager. Owning both a handheld and a console, on the other hand isn't so unusual. Until this difference disappears (and it may someday) I won't see the two markets as having merged in a meaningful way.