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[JJConrad]

http://www.segasammy.co.jp/english/ir/

These Sega forecasts almost looks like they were randomly generated. Massively reduced forecast for the first half of the year, yet they expect their PS360 sales remain practically the same for the full year? And why are they predicting such a huge fall off from their catalog games? Sonic Racing Transformed makes up 25% of all their releases? (10 of 40, a Japanese release is unlikely) At least, we can expect hope that this list in incomplete.

I'm not sure. In the FPS genre for example, the Wii had all six Call of Duty games (from CoD3 to MW3), still it didnt really matter much in the long run. I think the reason for this was due to the hardware limitations of the Wii. Such a scenario is not the case with the Vita compared to other handhelds.

I think it is pretty safe to say that MH helped the genre on the PSP (or in general for that matter), so i agree with that. But i dont think this necessarily means "make it or break it" if the genre can have games that people are really interested in.

Actually, Wii did not have all six COD games. No new Wii version was released the year COD4 came out. Modern Warfare was released two years later instead of MW2 that year. MW2 was never released on Wii.

So it actually supports Erethian's claim. COD3 Wii sold very well, but the system missed out on the game that made the series the genre king. Sales for the series and FPS in general on Wii have lagged ever since.

 

[nickcv]

ok, this graph was made on week 12 (or 11 i can't remember right now), and unfortunately i have no clue about where to get DC numbers... how much time left has sony to turn out things before psv cross streams with the dc?

 

[bigtroyjon]

ok, this graph was made on week 12 (or 11 i can't remember right now), and unfortunately i have no clue about where to get DC numbers... how much time left has sony to turn out things before psv cross streams with the dc?

If nothing changes it would probably be week 40 or so. Would be cool to see an updated graph and get a better picture.

This week would be 21 for Vita and it's just under 700K.

 

[BKK]

There is at least one unannounced game in development that is PSN/XBLA/Wii U that is not the aliens game so its missing some stuff or as people have said deliberately not listing Wii U

Digital games aren't included, only "Packaged Games", ie retail games. Things don't actually look so bad when you include their Digital Games forecast. They forecast ¥64.4b for the coming year (half of which coming from "Digital Games"), that compares to ¥66.4b last year, and ¥67.1b the year before. How much of the "Digital Games" forecast will be made up of traditional console games and how much will be social/casual/mobile stuff remains to be seen though.

 

[test_account]

Kinda interesting to see some comments about Sega and Vita. First it was "Vita needs more games!", then suddently it is "crazy to make games for Vita". Or am i missing something here?

 

[cw_sasuke]

Kinda interesting to see some comments about Sega and Vita. First it was "Vita needs more games!", then suddently it is "crazy to make games for Vita". Or am i missing something here?

Nothing wrong with either statement. Or am i missing something here ? ;-)

 

[test_account]

Nothing wrong with either statement. Or am i missing something here ? ;-)

Hehe, well, true. But it seems like almost advicing not to make games for Vita.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Hehe, well, true. But it seems like almost advicing not to make games for Vita.

They are making more games for PSV than the 3DS, that's the "problem".

Sexy Miku will pulverize Chibi Miku though. The only question is: will it have legs?

 

[cw_sasuke]

Hehe, well, true. But it seems like almost advicing not to make games for Vita.

As a gamer and Vita owner im all for more Vita Support - Virtua Tennis was already greaut from Sega. If they can use their HD engines for easy/cheaper Vita developing better for them. Would love a Sonic Generations Vita port.

Sexy Miku will pulverize Chibi Miku though. The only question is: will it have legs?

It will sell more - but THAT much more to pulverize it ? On Vita ? I would be suprised if it can sell much more than 200K. But who knows how Vita sales will be after Gundam Seed, MGS and Persona 4 Golden.

 

[Spiegel]

They are making more games for PSV than the 3DS, that's the "problem".

Sexy Miku will pulverize Chibi Miku though. The only question is: will it have legs?

They are making a racing game (also on like 5 more platforms including 3ds), a miku game (also on PS3 and 3ds had one released recently), a monkey ball game (3ds had one released last year, budget can't possibly be high), PSO2 (easy pc port) and a low budget f2p game.

It's not like they are breaking the bank making those games, and 3DS got many Sega titles last fiscal year.

 

[-MB-]

I'm not sure. In the FPS genre for example, the Wii had all six Call of Duty games (from CoD3 to MW3), still it didnt really matter much in the long run. I think the reason for this was due to the hardware limitations of the Wii. Such a senario is not the case with the Vita compared to other handhelds.

I think it is pretty safe to say that MH helped the genre on the PSP (or in general for that matter), so i agree with that. But i dont think this necessarily means "make it or break it" if the genre can have games that people are really interested in.

Problem is, Wii never got the defining COD, Modern Warfare, which obviously also hurt the series potential performance later on.

 

[frankie_baby]

Problem is, Wii never got the defining COD, Modern Warfare, which obviously also hurt the series potential performance later on.

It did, it just got it 2 years late, the only cod wii didn't get was mw2

 

[BishopLamont]

Wii didn't get MW when the craze was high, by the time it got it, the shipped had already sailed, the fanbase already decided their platforms. Not to say MW would have sold a ton more on the Wii if it had the same day and date with the HD platforms, but it would have done more for future iterations. Nintendo is starting from scratch for every HD game it missed out, its gonna be tough if Nintendo doesn't build up a core fanbase early on in the Wii U's life, coz its gonna be alot tougher once the other systems are out.

Co-marketing for major games to make it seem Wii U exclusive is something Nintendo should be seriously considering. It'll certainly help them establish that fanbase early on since it'll be the shiniest new thing out for awhile, similar to 360's advantage of being the most powerful system out first.

 

[electroplankton]

They are making a racing game (also on like 5 more platforms including 3ds), a miku game (also on PS3 and 3ds had one released recently), a monkey ball game (3ds had one released last year, budget can't possibly be high), PSO2 (easy pc port) and a low budget f2p game.

It's not like they are breaking the bank making those games, and 3DS got many Sega titles last fiscal year.

Which SEGA titles would have broken the bank?
On handheld, SEGA has always developed low-budget games as far as I remember. Then, some of them sold really well (Love&Berry, Phantasy Star Portable, Hatsune Miku, Mario&Sonic, Puyo Puyo), but PSVita line-up is totally in line with its previous offer on DS and PSP.

 

[thestopsign]

Call of Duty on Wii has two games around one million and four overall that are over 500k in NA. Not sure if that just shows the power of the brand or that if they made it, they can still profit from it.

 

[fabricated backlash]

Wii didn't get MW when the craze was high, by the time it got it, the shipped had already sailed, the fanbase already decided their platforms. Not to say MW would have sold a ton more on the Wii if it had the same day and date with the HD platforms, but it would have done more for future iterations. Nintendo is starting from scratch for every HD game it missed out, its gonna be tough if Nintendo doesn't build up a core fanbase early on in the Wii U's life, coz its gonna be alot tougher once the other systems are out.

Co-marketing for major games to make it seem Wii U exclusive is something Nintendo should be seriously considering. It'll certainly help them establish that fanbase early on since it'll be the shiniest new thing out for awhile, similar to 360's advantage of being the most powerful system out first.

Absolutely this. The Wii versions were an afterthought, and while the controls are still amazing and my favorite way to play the COD games, the audience was allready set in stone pretty much.

That's also why I'm very very doubtfull that a Vita version would have anywhere near the same sales impact as the 360 or PS3 version have.

Call of Duty on Wii has two games around one million and four overall that are over 500k in NA. Not sure if that just shows the power of the brand or that if they made it, they can still profit from it.

It's brand power mixed with a clear lack of good FPS games on the Wii. At least before Goldeneye and RS2 came out, COD was the best pointer implementation outside of The Conduit on Wii. So that was clearly an important factor to it's considerably solid success on Wii.

 

[Chris1964]

Which SEGA titles would have broken the bank?
On handheld, SEGA has always developed low-budget games as far as I remember. Then, some of them sold really well (Love&Berry, Phantasy Star Portable, Hatsune Miku, Mario&Sonic, Puyo Puyo), but PSVita line-up is totally in line with its previous offer on DS and PSP.

Many Sega efforts on handhelds and especially PSP didn't break the bank but are far from low budget.

 

[Road]

So, for monthly the predictions, I have:

[3DS] Mario Tennis Open
[PS3] Dragon's Dogma
[PSP] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment
[PSP] My Little Sister Can't Be this Cute Portable Can't Be Continuing


Other candidates (yes/no):

[360] Dragon's Dogma
[PSP] Uta no Prince-sama! Debut
[PSV] Samurai & Dragons Deluxe Package (the only Vita game)


I'll post the rules tonight, so suggest until then.

 

[Spiegel]

Which SEGA titles would have broken the bank?
On handheld, SEGA has always developed low-budget games as far as I remember. Then, some of them sold really well (Love&Berry, Phantasy Star Portable, Hatsune Miku, Mario&Sonic, Puyo Puyo), but PSVita line-up is totally in line with its previous offer on DS and PSP.

Miku if it was an exclusive, a new exclusive Yakuza, the original exclusive IP from Sega UK (which most likely won't be an exclusive anymore). Basically, breaking the bank would be putting any exclusive game with a reasonable budget.

What I meant is that they are all low risk efforts. PSO2, Sonic Kart and Miku are high budget productions but these are all also on other platforms.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Given it was only Vita title released this fiscal year, we know Virtua Tennis 4 shipped 150k worldwide.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Miku if it was an exclusive, a new exclusive Yakuza, the original exclusive IP from Sega UK (which most likely won't be an exclusive anymore). Basically, breaking the bank would be putting any exclusive game with a reasonable budget.

What I meant is that they are all low risk efforts. PSO2, Sonic Kart and Miku are high budget productions but these are all also on other platforms.

Given the release timelines, I suspect Miku most likely was an exclusive originally but a PS3 port was probably decided on for down line given Vita's sluggish start and grim prospects.

 

[frankie_baby]

Given it was only Vita title released this fiscal year, we know Virtua Tennis 4 shipped 150k worldwide.

Have we ever had any sales figures from anywhere for it?

 

[frankie_baby]

Given the release timelines, I suspect Miku most likely was an exclusive originally but a PS3 port was probably decided on for down line given Vita's sluggish start and grim prospects.

Good business sense for Sega, bad for vita prospects

 

[Spiegel]

Given the release timelines, I suspect Miku most likely was an exclusive originally but a PS3 port was probably decided on for down line given Vita's sluggish start and grim prospects.

They probably were planning to do something for PS3 based on the Vita release, just like PS3 got Miku 1 and 2. But yeah, this early announcement of the PS3 version seems motivated by the monumental disaster that is the Vita at the moment.

 

[electroplankton]

Miku if it was an exclusive, a new exclusive Yakuza, the original exclusive IP from Sega UK (which most likely won't be an exclusive anymore). Basically, breaking the bank would be putting any exclusive game with a reasonable budget.

What I meant is that they are all low risk efforts. PSO2, Sonic Kart and Miku are high budget productions but these are all also on other platforms.

Ok.
But given previous SEGA effort on PSP (and DS), I won't count on them for what concerns exclusive games with a reasonable budget. Miku sells a lot but I'd hardly say it has even a medium budget; Yakuza Black Panther surely had, though.

Btw, Miku on PS3 will be out in 2013, so it's a timed exclusive that makes some sense, at least. I wonder where Valkyria Chronicles would go...

 

[Kazerei]

http://i.imgur.com/r0BUu.png

ok, this graph was made on week 12 (or 11 i can't remember right now), and unfortunately i have no clue about where to get DC numbers... how much time left has sony to turn out things before psv cross streams with the dc?

DC and GC numbers are from the database file linked in the OP. Media Create numbers don't go back far enough, but Famitsu numbers do.

Here's an update. I decided to just stick with Famitsu numbers. DC sales really slowed down in weeks 20 to 30, so PSV will have no problem staying ahead and possibly widening the gap. DC got a price cut week 31, which increased the rate of sales. If PSV doesn't get any boost like that, it could fall behind.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Have we ever had any sales figures from anywhere for it?

Not that I know of? It's not in the US Vita top 10 and (likely well) under 50k given NPD leaks though.

They probably were planning to do something for PS3 based on the Vita release, just like PS3 got Miku 1 and 2. But yeah, this early announcement of the PS3 version seems motivated by the monumental disaster that is the Vita at the moment.

Yeah, PS3 probably would've just gotten Dreamy Theater 3 if Vita's trajectory were more encouraging. At least Vita's still getting the game though, things definitely could've gone worse for Sony in this (ie: Project Diva 3DS).

Speaking of which, I wonder if there are similar plans to bring Project Mirai to Wii U in some form?

 

[electroplankton]

Speaking of which, I wonder if there are similar plans to bring Project Mirai to Wii U in some form?

Project Mirai was born because of 3DS screen was not sufficient to show the real-sized Miku, according to SEGA. Given the nice LTD the game is having, I bet a new game of the spin-off is in development for 3DS.

 

[impact]

As a gamer and Vita owner im all for more Vita Support - Virtua Tennis was already greaut from Sega. If they can use their HD engines for easy/cheaper Vita developing better for them. Would love a Sonic Generations Vita port.

Too bad no one bought VT4


people are dumb

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Project Mirai was born because of 3DS screen was not sufficient to show the real-sized Miku, according to SEGA. Given the nice LTD the game is having, I bet a new game of the spin-off is in development for 3DS.

Oh, I think Mirai 2 is definitely likely down the line. I just wonder if Wii U won't get a tie in like Dreamy Theater or something?

 

[electroplankton]

Oh, I think Mirai 2 is definitely likely down the line. I just wonder if Wii U won't get a tie in like Dreamy Theater or something?

Imo, it's too early to say that.
Hatsune Miku doesn't have the strength to be fragmented on many platforms; the 3DS entry was differentiated enough to be distinguished from the main series (indeed, many buyers were female). A Wii U entry might be just a port of the PSV/PS3 version, where the userbase should be.

 

[Nirolak]

Oh, I think Mirai 2 is definitely likely down the line. I just wonder if Wii U won't get a tie in like Dreamy Theater or something?

Imo, it's too early to say that.
Hatsune Miku doesn't have the strength to be fragmented on many platforms; the 3DS entry was differentiated enough to be distinguished from the main series (indeed, many buyers were female). A Wii U entry might be just a port of the PSV/PS3 version, where the userbase should be.

I would say the Wii U would have to hit two requirements to get a version:

1.) Sell relatively well.
2.) Be perceived as selling a notable amount of units to an audience that would be interested in a Hatsune Miku tie-in application.

I would also say that the only reasons the Vita is getting a version is that A.) PlayStation is the assumed platform of the Hatsune Miku fanbase and B.) Sony helped pay for it.

It is basically the same reason I feel a PlayStation 4 would need to sell well to a family audience before a rather family centric game got put on it whereas the Wii U will likely get any such titles instantly, since before a console launches a lot of publisher seem to just assume a platform will have a certain audience and greenlight games based on that. That may have changed now, but we probably won't find out until E3 (and then if people actually follow through on the big E3 list).

 

[Sleepy]

Probably been talked to death, but I just noticed those 360 numbers. :O

 

[test_account]

They are making more games for PSV than the 3DS, that's the "problem".

I can see that. But it is good that someone takes a chance at least. Someone must do that, goes for any platform.

As a gamer and Vita owner im all for more Vita Support - Virtua Tennis was already greaut from Sega. If they can use their HD engines for easy/cheaper Vita developing better for them. Would love a Sonic Generations Vita port.

I agree.

Problem is, Wii never got the defining COD, Modern Warfare, which obviously also hurt the series potential performance later on.

As frankie_baby mentioned, it did. But i was mistaken about one thing, the Wii did get five CoD games, not six as i first mentioned (i forgot that MW2 didnt come out for the Wii).

Absolutely this. The Wii versions were an afterthought, and while the controls are still amazing and my favorite way to play the COD games, the audience was allready set in stone pretty much.

That's also why I'm very very doubtfull that a Vita version would have anywhere near the same sales impact as the 360 or PS3 version have.

What about Black Ops 2 for the WiiU though? I'm sure that the PS3/Xbox 360 version will sell the most, but what impact will BO2 have on the WiiU? When PS4/Xbox 720 comes out, are Nintendo back in the CoD Wii situation?


EDIT:

Actually, Wii did not have all six COD games. No new Wii version was released the year COD4 came out. Modern Warfare was released two years later instead of MW2 that year. MW2 was never released on Wii.

So it actually supports Erethian's claim. COD3 Wii sold very well, but the system missed out on the game that made the series the genre king. Sales for the series and FPS in general on Wii have lagged ever since.

Sorry, i missed this quote earlier. Yeah, i was mistaken about MW2. The Wii got five CoD games, not six as i first mentioned.

I dont think that this is the sole reason for lack of 3rd party FPS support on the Wii however. I honestly dont think that the situation would be that much different even if MW1 and 2 were released on the Wii at the same date as the other versions. I think that the biggest reason is the limited hardware power of the Wii. This ment that an easy port was not possible. You will most likely see that the WiiU gets much more multiplatform support because it is easier to port to that system.

 

[electroplankton]

I can see that. But it is good that someone takes a chance at least. Someone must do that, goes for any platform.

Yeah, but it doesn't make that, in the meanwhile, you decrease the support for a platform where your games sold well.

 

[test_account]

Yeah, but it doesn't make that, in the meanwhile, you decrease the support for a platform where your games sold well.

Different type of games perhaps, which might not fit all the platforms just as good (PSO2 is one example of this).

EDIT: How many 3DS games from Sega has done noticeably well? I know of Project Mirai and London Olympics (although published by Nintendo in Japan). Rhythm Thief was also not too shabby from the japanese sales numbers.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

Different type of games perhaps, which might not fit all the platforms just as good (PSO2 is one example of this).

EDIT: How many 3DS games from Sega has done noticeably well? I know of Project Mirai and London Olympics (although published by Nintendo in Japan). Rhythm Thief was also not too shabby from the japanese sales numbers.

Sonic Generations started slow (way undershipped) but has had pretty good catalog sales in the west evidently. Super Monkey Ball 3D did fairly well too probably (at least 360k were shipped), though mostly at discount I'd expect.

Shinobi was total bomba, Crush3d was retailer exclusive in America, and Puyo 20th did pretty meh (as did the Wii/PSP versions).

 

[donny2112]

since before a console launches a lot of publisher seem to just assume a platform will have a certain audience and greenlight games based on that.

Looking forward to how AC3 does on Wii U. It can't do AC1 numbers, since that was 2 years in for 360 and 1 year in for PS3, but still very interested in how it does and its legs (U.S. speaking).

I honestly dont think that the situation would be that much different even if MW1 and 2 were released on the Wii at the same date as the other versions.

I honestly think the whole Wii FPS landscape would've been drastically improved if MW1 had launched day and date with the PS360 version. COD3 was consistently selling better on Wii than PS3 prior to that Fall. Of course, we'll never know this, but obviously your opinion to the contrary is not going to change that belief, either.

 

[JJConrad]

Looking forward to how AC3 does on Wii U. It can't do AC1 numbers, since that was 2 years in for 360 and 1 year in for PS3, but still very interested in how it does and its legs (U.S. speaking).

I'm curious, but don't think comparison will be fair. The first game sold the best and the series has been in decline ever since. While I think AC3 will stop the decline, the series is also now well established. Sales pattern won't be compatible.

I dont think that this is the sole reason for lack of 3rd party FPS support on the Wii however. I honestly dont think that the situation would be that much different even if MW1 and 2 were released on the Wii at the same date as the other versions. I think that the biggest reason is the limited hardware power of the Wii. This meant that an easy port was not possible. You will most likely see that the WiiU gets much more multiplatform support because it is easier to port to that system.

I think it would have had a fairly significant effect on the system's library. It's not the sole reason and it wouldn't have reversed everything. But, COD4 was the final nail that developers and publishers needed to allow them to focus those games exclusively on the PS360 without any hesitation. Had COD4 been released on the Wii along side the other versions I'm confident it would have sold comparable to the PS3 version. The Wii's FPS schedule dried up after 2007 and the flood of light-gun games began... that most likely would not have happened.

 

[test_account]

Sonic Generations started slow (way undershipped) but has had pretty good catalog sales in the west evidently. Super Monkey Ball 3D did fairly well too probably (at least 360k were shipped), though mostly at discount I'd expect.

Shinobi was total bomba, Crush3d was retailer exclusive in America, and Puyo 20th did pretty meh (as did the Wii/PSP versions).

Thanks

I honestly think the whole Wii FPS landscape would've been drastically improved if MW1 had launched day and date with the PS360 version. COD3 was consistently selling better on Wii than PS3 prior to that Fall. Of course, we'll never know this, but obviously your opinion to the contrary is not going to change that belief, either.

I'm curious, but don't think comparison will be fair. The first game sold the best and the series has been in decline ever since. While I think AC3 will stop the decline, the series is also now well established. Sales pattern won't be compatible.

There might have been a few extra FPS on the Wii, and i'm sure that more Wii-only owners would have bought it. But in the long run i think that the graphics difference would have been a big factor (also 30fps VS 60fps). The reason why i think this is because Black Ops and MW3 were released for the Wii at the same day as the PS3/Xbox 360 version, yet people prefered the PS3/Xbox 360 version. There are tons of Wii owners out there, so they could have picked up the Wii version if they wanted to. But yeah, this is all hypothetically, it cant really be proven at this point.

 

[The_lascar]

So, for monthly the predictions, I have:

[3DS] Mario Tennis Open
[PS3] Dragon's Dogma
[PSP] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment
[PSP] My Little Sister Can't Be this Cute Portable Can't Be Continuing


Other candidates (yes/no):

[360] Dragon's Dogma
[PSP] Uta no Prince-sama! Debut
[PSV] Samurai & Dragons Deluxe Package (the only Vita game)


I'll post the rules tonight, so suggest until then.

What about adding a 2012 YTD predictions game? I think it will be interesting to start a "parallel" contest like that for some games, and using the Famitsu top 100 at the begining of 2013.

Of course, that's just interesting for some games. For this month, I think Mario Tennis Open is the only one good candidate. But for some games like Pokémon B2/W2, Onitore or NSMB2, i think this can become a good predictions game, despite we have to wait months before knowing the results.

 

[Nirolak]

Looking forward to how AC3 does on Wii U. It can't do AC1 numbers, since that was 2 years in for 360 and 1 year in for PS3, but still very interested in how it does and its legs (U.S. speaking).

Would we even publicly find out?

I mean, the NPD charts are combined SKUs.

Though I guess the question will be answered by whether or not Ubisoft makes a comparable Wii U version of whatever game doesn't have a 360/PS3 version.

 

[antonz]

Would we even publicly find out?

I mean, the NPD charts are combined SKUs.

Though I guess the question will be answered by whether or not Ubisoft makes a comparable Wii U version of whatever game doesn't have a 360/PS3 version.

Depending on results we could maybe find out. Nintendo might want to hype it or Ubisoft. Its hard to say long term trends though because launch window hype does its thing and of course growing userbases can alter alot

 

[Opiate]

Hehe, well, true. But it seems like almost advicing not to make games for Vita.

I agree. The first statement (Vita has no games!) is a comment from a player: it is a player saying "hey I want more games on this machine!" The second is a comment from a businessman: it is an analyst saying "putting games on this machine is not an economically wise decision."

Now, it's fine to be a gamer. It's also fine to be an analyst. However, I get at least slightly suspicious when people rapidly switch between the gamer perspective and analyst perspective depending on which view is more critical to the Vita/3DS/whatever it is we're talking about.

 

[matmanx1]

Speaking as a gamer I certainly hope that Project Mirai gets a followup. I think it's fun and different enough from Project Diva to warrant being it's own seperate series and the initial sales seem to indicate that it could have a bright future on the 3DS.

Also speaking as a gamer I hope that the Vita gets some great announcements between E3 and TGS and is able to muster at least a little bit of sales momentum in this calendar year. The hardware is killer and ergonomically I much prefer it to the 3DS and the PSP. With the right combination of games and price the device has the potential to do well although it still remains to be seen if Sony has the ability to get it healthy.

 

[Road]

Prediction League May, 2012

Predict the LTD as of May 27 for these titles:

[3DS] Mario Tennis Open -
[PS3] Dragon's Dogma -
[PSP] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment -
[PSP] My Little Sister Can't Be this Cute Portable Can't Be Continuing -

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This time, we will not predict only first week sales. We'll predict the LTD -- life to date, or cumulative total, or how much overall has been sold -- of the titles below until the end of the month according to the Media Create calendar. Because of that, some games will have only one week of sales while others may have two or more.


Rules:

• The official LTD is going to be the latest LTD number available from the Media Create top 20.
• Any game missing in the MC top 20 will be taken out of the predictions.
• Any game missing in your prediction will be considered as if you had predicted zero for its LTD.

Deadline:

The same as usual: the 4Gamer MC Top 20, or 00:00 Japan Time (JST) of the day of the first game released among the predictions in case this is earlier than the Top 20.




Extra information: How many "weeks" each game will have inside the prediction (which may or may not be included in the total if it happens to be out of the Top 20):

05/17 2 weeks [PSP] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment
05/17 2 weeks [PSP] My Little Sister Can't Be this Cute Portable Can't Be Continuing
05/24 1 week [3DS] Mario Tennis Open
05/24 1 week [PS3] Dragon's Dogma

What about adding a 2012 YTD predictions game? I think it will be interesting to start a "parallel" contest like that for some games, and using the Famitsu top 100 at the begining of 2013.

Of course, that's just interesting for some games. For this month, I think Mario Tennis Open is the only one good candidate. But for some games like Pokémon B2/W2, Onitore or NSMB2, i think this can become a good predictions game, despite we have to wait months before knowing the results.

We'd just need a good list of games. It's an idea.

Speaking of B2/W2, it might be better to make a separate prediction for its first week or LTD separately, considering it'll dwarf everything else in the month of June (possible candidates: DQM3D, Lollipop Chainsaw, Ayesha no Atelier, Gundam Vita, P4G etc)

 

[donny2112]

The reason why i think this is because Black Ops and MW3 were released for the Wii at the same day as the PS3/Xbox 360 version, yet people prefered the PS3/Xbox 360 version.

Oh, the 360 version was always going to be on top. Live and Halo (i.e. built-in FPS audience) would've made sure of that, even if 360 hadn't launched a year before PS3/Wii. The Wii version, as it stands now, is even way behind the PS3 version, though. It's that gap that I feel would've been substantially smaller had FPS support of the big multi-platform titles, especially COD4, had gone to Wii as well as PS360. It's not about Wii dominating PS360. It's about the Wii ecosystem being a good place to put FPSs or not. Non-IW COD was the only consistent arrival there, and missing COD4 really cut the legs out from a chance to make the series something much bigger than it ended up being on Wii.

Of course the lack of architecture on Wii to allow easy ports was the real kicker, but Treyarch proved that if the developer cared enough, it can absolutely be done in a reduced fashion.

Would we even publicly find out?

I mean, the NPD charts are combined SKUs.[/QUOTE]

Oh, yeah. Good point. Only if Ubisoft made a specific note of it then.

 

[Dash Kappei]

Hey Road, secondapps countdown doesn't work anymore

"access restricted to this domain"

 

[donny2112]

Prediction League May, 2012

LTD as of May 27 for these titles:

[3DS] Mario Tennis Open - 100K
[PS3] Dragon's Dogma - 200K
[PSP] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment - 75K
[PSP] My Little Sister Can't Be this Cute Portable Can't Be Continuing - 100K

05/17 2 weeks [PSP] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment
05/17 2 weeks [PSP] My Little Sister Can't Be this Cute Portable Can't Be Continuing
05/24 1 week [3DS] Mario Tennis Open
05/24 1 week [PS3] Dragon's Dogma

 

[Chris1964]

Predictions

05/17 2 weeks [PSP] Persona 2: Eternal Punishment - 56.789
05/17 2 weeks [PSP] My Little Sister Can't Be this Cute Portable Can't Be Continuing - 67.890
05/24 1 week [3DS] Mario Tennis Open - 123.456
05/24 1 week [PS3] Dragon's Dogma - 234.567