I think the game can do a solid number for the kind of game it is. Something around 40k first week.
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Media Create Sales: Week 25, 2012 (Jun 18 - Jun 24)
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
I think the game can do a solid number for the kind of game it is. Something around 40k first week.
I don't think the announcement transforms into sales numbers that fast. The sales will begin to drop during the next few weeks as Nintendo starts to promote XL.
Gianni Merryman
Member
Honestly I don't think so; it's not as if some drastic price-cut has been announced for next week.
I see that 3DSLL is under all aspects a huge improvement from older model, but I don't think this week's 3DS's underwhelming sales can be ascribed just to it, that's going anyway to launch in a month and by the way is going to be considerably more expensive, aside from the fact that I regard it as more oriented to an adult demographic.
electroplankton
Banned
Culdcept on DS opened at 50k so I'm expecting a bit more (60k).
AndrewDean84xX
Banned
That and the fact that most of Japan already has a device that plays DS games. So upgrading to the 3DS small doesn't make much sense at the moment.
SlipperySlope
Banned
Crazy bold prediction time!
Vita will be pulled from the shelves before it reaches 1 million LTD in Japan.
Vita will be pulled from the shelves before it reaches 1 million LTD in Japan.
BassForever
Member
That's super disappointing for Vita, it dropping back to sub 15k means that there still isn't much of a market for the device. I was hoping that the drop would be less substantial but I can't imagine white vita or miku impacting hardware units the way Persona 4 did.
grimshawish
Banned
Not that bold - it'll likely be into next year before it hits 1 million!
Its possible though, if theres no demand then shops will stop stocking them.
you mean completely taken out of the japanese market??? this is madness.
there are a lot of factors that must be considered for that to happen. I'd think retailers care for their relationships with their providers, don't they? they can't just say " fuck you sony, here, take your vita back I don't want it". That's just one factor.
test_account
XP-39C²
The logic in the 3DS case was pretty much that it was a new Pokemon game, and that people would buy a 3DS for the Pokemon AR apps etc.. After that, it is pretty much a wild guess how much the sales will be.
The same goes for all games. People just look at how much previous entries sold and make a guess on how much the next installment will sell. But since each game is an individual case, things can go either way for various reasons.
As for people who are hugely disappointed with P4 Golden sales, this is not unusual after my experience. I often see comments like this when sales goes down. Then there are also cases where some seem to be more eager to post when not-so-positive news are presented for a certain type of system(s).
grimshawish
Banned
More. 'There not selling any more, so were not buying any more'.
Vita's at 779k LTD. It will hit 1 million before September, I'm betting.
bigtroyjon
Member
PSP(2011 YTD)= 1,101,330
PSP+PSV(2012)=772,125(-29.9%)
Looking ahead to Week 26, PSP did 29,878 in 2011.
3DS+DS(2011 YTD)=1,644,596
3DS+DS(2012 YTD)=2,114,803(+28.6%)
Looking ahead to week 26, 3DS+DS did 39,838 in 2011.
All handhelds(2011 YTD)=2,745,926
All handhelds(2012 YTD)=2,886,928
September is in about 10-11 weeks. You think the Vita is going to average more than 20K a week?
PSP+PSV(2012)=772,125(-29.9%)
Looking ahead to Week 26, PSP did 29,878 in 2011.
3DS+DS(2011 YTD)=1,644,596
3DS+DS(2012 YTD)=2,114,803(+28.6%)
Looking ahead to week 26, 3DS+DS did 39,838 in 2011.
All handhelds(2011 YTD)=2,745,926
All handhelds(2012 YTD)=2,886,928
September is in about 10-11 weeks. You think the Vita is going to average more than 20K a week?
test_account
XP-39C²
It is not possible. Otherwise the Xbox 360 would have been pulled from the shelfs years ago.
grimshawish
Banned
10 weeks time...
221k to go
= Vita needs to sell 22.1k every week. Luck be with it.
[I honestly hope it does okay - but its not going to do that]
Vita is doing terrible no doubt, but the White Vita release should prop up sales for a bit. It's a LONG shot, but 220k by September 1st is not too unreasonable.
mugurumakensei
Member
It'd have to average out to 20k/wk for the next 11 weeks (including this one) to reach that.
Miku will be a much bigger bump
mugurumakensei
Member
I doubt it.
bigtroyjon
Member
It is pretty much impossible. White Vita is not going to just magically more than double the average weekly sales as if half the people who were interested in buying a Vita don't decide to simply because of the color.
SlipperySlope
Banned
My thinking is that Sony's financials might force them to put it out of its misery.
Or they'll sell the division and the buyer will cancel the Vita.
Again though, it's a crazy bold prediction. I don't expect it to happen.
test_account
XP-39C²
Such a big thing wont happen "over night". The Vita is not that far from one million. With upcoming white Vita and Hatsune Miku, reaching one million will go faster. And i think it is more damaging financially to pull it off the shelfs instead of just keep selling it at the current price.
If you had said i.e 5 million units, then it would be something different. But before 1 million, that wont happen.
White was announced in May. It went on sale today, and supposedly Sony started marketing white last week.
The numbers are very close. The LTD someone else gave you was after the 3DS game was on shelves for 9 months. The Vita game should crawl to a slightly higher LTD.
3DS XL was announced on the 22nd. That's just 2 of the days in this tracking period. As well, the kids who buy Pokemon games aren't going to be watching Nintendo Direct and know to wait it out for 3DS XL.
There's a difference between being bold and stupid.
The PSP Mikus have sold more than the PSP Personas. The Vita Miku won't cross the PSP ones though.
I think the worst scenario for vita is the gamecube.
4 years, 4 million, a game here and there, people hated it, many even mocked it and called it trash, a pointless purchase because of the lack of games.
Vita (sony) CAN change its apparent destiny but doesn't seem like it...
but pulled out of the market? no.. no way.
4 years, 4 million, a game here and there, people hated it, many even mocked it and called it trash, a pointless purchase because of the lack of games.
Vita (sony) CAN change its apparent destiny but doesn't seem like it...
but pulled out of the market? no.. no way.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Pulled by consumers or Sony?
-Pyromaniac-
Member
it's one of those games that when you see gameplay you're all " :/ I must play this"
electroplankton
Banned
Indeed. And kids who buy Pokémon games are still fine with their DS. Btw, it's not crazy to think that Nintendo started to advertise 3DS XL since the day it was announced.
Pretty much.
B2/W2 still remains a DS game, sequel of a DS game. We expected a bit more for 3DS, but nothing incredible. I was expecting 80-90k. It did almost 70k.
Leave luck to
PS Vita
grimshawish
Banned
This is the thing though - when will it reach a million. Its still a possibility that Vita drops even further (possibly). Which could lead to no 1 million sold by the end of this year.
26 weeks left
221k left to go
= Vita needs to sell on average 8.5k a week to reach 1 million this year.
Now bumps are good. Personal level bump would cut it by over 3 weeks worth.
White Vita? I don't see having any effect. People haven't 'not' been buying the system waiting for a white Vita and I can't see many buying this new one if they already have a Vita.
But then Vita will be likely around 6k for the majority of this time; and 'possibly' lower.
bigtroyjon
Member
4 million in 4 years is definitely not the worst case scenario. Obviously not going to get pulled from the shelves before 1 million but if things aren't much different 12 months from now I don't see any way that Sony could justify continued production and support of the Vita. Sony is a company that needs to get leaner and more agile, continued use of resources on a mediocre to poor selling product is just too much bloat for them in their current financial state. Especially since 12 months from now they will likely be gearing up to launch the PS4 which is far more important to the overall picture than the Vita.
electroplankton
Banned
Funny how Xbox 360 went from 38k to 19k the week after the launch of Blue Dragon. It was December, but still.
Hmm. Vita's LTD is 779,102. We're at the 26th week of the year. If the Vita keeps selling at an average of 10k per week till this 53th week of this year, thus:
27 weeks * 10,000 units = 0.27m units.
780,000+270,000 = 1.05m units by the end of this year.
My own prediction is that if the Vita doesn't shows any great sign of vitality thought this Christmas season, they might pull the plug by mid-2013. So I don't think they'll wrap up the Vita when it will reach 1m units sold.
If the Vita averages 13k from now until it sells 1 million, it will make the mark in 17 weeks, or October. I don't see how it statistically cannot do that, given releases and bumps.
Father_Brain
Banned
GC at least had Nintendo's first-party franchises and strong support from one of the major Japanese third parties (Capcom) even before launch, so calling it the worst-case scenario is optimistic, if anything.
I think it's at least a legitimate possibility after the 18-month mark or so, barring a turnaround between now and then, of course.
Nintendo knew the gamecube was dead sometime between its first and second year and what did they do? let the dead corpse float around with current of the river until it's time to get rid of it and start a new with a new product, which was the Wii.
Sony will do exactly the same.
there is no " If these things don't happen, I bail out and tell everyone to **** off".
That doesn't happen, people.
Alexios
Cores, shaders and BIOS oh my!
It does happen when the circumstances demand it, as was the case with SEGA.
Not saying it's the same situation or that it will happen, just saying.
test_account
XP-39C²
Yep. And some of the predictions were made before the announcement of 3DS XL too. It could have affected the bump a little bit. It is impossible to say for sure though, but at least this is what the logic was for expecting a 3DS hardware bump.
I dont think that it is lost (but maybe a bit overshadowed), it is just that many people expected a higher bump. If the Vita sells i.e 17k next week because of a new color, i think that the main focus will be on the low sales, and not on the sales increase.
I dont think that it matters much to the initiall point if it takes 10 weeks or 50 weeks. If the Xbox 360 is still on the self after ~6 years with 1k - 2k weekly sales, then the Vita wont be pulled from the shelfs before it has reached 1 million units sold.
I dont think that the white Vita will do wonders, so i agree to that. But there is also an white Hatsune Miku bundle coming up. Then there is also a new Vita Heaven coming, and TGS. This is not a "wait for" comment, but these two events is something to concider even if the expectations are low.
Father_Brain
Banned
Yep. It's important to note that Vita is the first PlayStation that Sony has launched without the enormous benefit of having third parties' expectations on their side, and it's evident, particularly looking at Japan, that they were woefully unprepared for that scenario.
Fortunately for Sony, PS4 is unlikely to have that problem, at least.
Lord_Byron28
Member
If I recall in the 1st-2nd year they went into panic mode and rushed their development teams to release SMS, TWW, and MK
D. As well as securing the Capcom 5(lol).I think shortly after Mario, Zelda and Mario Kart failed to rejuvenate the system they accepted defeat.
I know at least one person said it. Don't feel like going through more posts. But yeah, all according to keikaku or something.
But the big difference here is that Sony might decide to not pursue competing in the dedicated handheld market anymore. They could cut the Vita short in it's early years. In contrast, the 360 did well outside of Japan, which allowed it to maintain a presence there no matter how badly it sold in Japan.
I know at least one person said it. Don't feel like going through more posts. But yeah, all according to keikaku or something.
What constitutes as decent legs for an RPG is pretty subjective. The game not dropping 90% this week can be seen as decent legs to someone, haha.
grimshawish
Banned
Off topic (well, only a bit): Why did Capcom back Gamecube so much? Were they worried about a Sony only Japan or what?
360 does have support though - provided by success outside of Japan (more or less); my thinking with the Vita wasn't along the lines of Sony dropping it but consumers. Not saying it will happen, just its within the realm of possibility.
Nintendo having strong IPs didn't help the GC much, if anything Vita will be doing slightly worse but it's all a moot point.
it's all static noise after all, if things remain like this.
like nintendo, they better come back prepared to the battlefield next round, otherwise they go the way of sega (whose "shame" console was the saturn, not the dreamcast).
it's all static noise after all, if things remain like this.
like nintendo, they better come back prepared to the battlefield next round, otherwise they go the way of sega (whose "shame" console was the saturn, not the dreamcast).