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Media Create Sales: Week 31, 2012 (Jul 30 - Aug 05)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Didn't it ship over 1 million? That's pretty damn good for an RPG, the marketing push must have helped a lot considering the previous DQ's numbers! You say you're looking at their bottom line, and while we can't fully judge it until later, it opened at almost 400k! Plus the fact it'll have a relaunch when the Wii U version arrives can't exactly hurt. You're acting like it'll never sell another unit, and no one will subscribe.
Yea, I also expect this. People keeping moaning about how there's too many, but there's only been one per system, and I don't see this changing anytime soon, especially with DLC.
That's debatable.
I doubt this will have a big impact on future main entries in Japan because every new main entry stands on its own feet. Even with diminished sales potential it will still be the strongest 3rd party franchise with Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest.
Baseball fever failed to ignite due to WBC boycott, etc. Franchise fatigue.
Every new main entry's sales has been directly dependent on its predecessor's reception.
it would be nice to compare respective drops for the New titles. Also, digital sales may be high, I expect at least 100k, but who knows until Nintendo releases some data
For the thousand time; it's an MMO. FFXI in comparison sold 64k first week back in the days for the PS2.
slaughterking
Member
PSO2 recently topped 700,000 registered users to give you guys another perspective.
Isn't PSO2 F2P?
Wii bump is crazy.
How long until Vita's dead at this pace? When should I expect a price drop?
I'm certain they'll do that.
Which is why they should have spread that shit out better. Releasing both within three months of each other is going to cannibalize sales. Little Jimmy isn't getting a 3DS and a Wii U for Christmas this year. It's one or the other, and only one Mario game.
How long until Vita's dead at this pace? When should I expect a price drop?
I'm certain they'll do that.
Which is why they should have spread that shit out better. Releasing both within three months of each other is going to cannibalize sales. Little Jimmy isn't getting a 3DS and a Wii U for Christmas this year. It's one or the other, and only one Mario game.
The other perspective skews things quite a bit if you forget to mention that PSO2 is F2P.
F2P games naturally have an easier time to get to many users. However, on average they also need much more users in order to turn the same profit as a subscribtion-based one. It's all relative.
slaughterking
Member
Yes, it is. You also can (or could until recently) register from anywhere in the world.
MasterSheen
Member
Any updated Vita-DC comparisons?
I Stalk Alone
Member
Not to mention, digital sales will also provide a boost. We will have to wait for the nintendo direct in what, two weeks to find out numbers right?
How high do you guys think the digital sales for NSMB2 will be?
I just don't see it for some reason. I think by the time they announce the digital sales, we'll be looking at 50-75k tops. I hope I'm wrong though and the sales are much higher.
I'll be looking forward to DQX Wii U over here in NA. Ball's in your court SE.
I just don't see it for some reason. I think by the time they announce the digital sales, we'll be looking at 50-75k tops. I hope I'm wrong though and the sales are much higher.
I'll be looking forward to DQX Wii U over here in NA. Ball's in your court SE.
nordique
Member
They're not trying to spin the sales; one has to consider that its an MMORPG. It might in fact already be the best selling MMORPG on a console in Japan to this day.
MMORPG business is very different from a standard release. We won't really know how well this game has done until SE releases information about subscription money.
Consider that FFXI opened up in Japan to ~63k sales, yet became the most financially successful Final Fantasy ever (more than even FFVII) and this title has opened up with somewhere between 367k and 420k sales, in addition to push an effectively dying console up to ~40k units.
It doesn't carry the glitter of other DQ titles with their 1 million plus openings and huge hardware pushes, but it is successful and the numbers are not pitiful when compared fairly with what the game is: an MMORPG. Its not a traditional title.
and it turned out to be the most profitable FF for Square enix ever too
Japan's not heading to the World Baseball Classic because of consistent issues over how it's been handled -- namely, that Japan is somehow expected to foot a tremendous amount of the bill while not even receiving merchandising rights. Also, baseball is no longer an olympic sport.
Checked some of the older 2ch threads though, and people seem to be consistenly saying that 2011's gameplay was ass, and that they started selling 'complete edition' versions later in the year. Citing that Pro Spirits baseball sales remained largely constant, this is likely the bigger factor at play.
airmangataosenai
Member
That's sort of a misnomer though, as FFXI was predominately played on PC. Had the userbase been determined by how it performed on the PS2 alone, it indeed would've been a massive disaster for Square. So no, it doesn't make for a good comparison.
These sales aren't bad and there's still the WiiU, but I doubt that the impact of waiting for the WiiU version will be anywhere near the level of impact that the PC version of FFXI had on that release.
It will have an affect on future releases but we have to consider that the biggest reason why FF13 didn´t sell well was due to the small userbase and expensive console back then, by the time these barriers started to shrink most more or less informed people knew how mediocre it was.
What I´m trying to say is that FF13 sales doesn´t mirror the franchises general sales potential. FF13 affected FF13-2 sales alot not only because most people were just sick with the whole FF13 universe but also due to the extreme and fast price drops its predecessor received. FF14 is a MMO and therefor most FF players didn´t care about it anyway, it received a lot of bad press and may have a negative impact but I doubt it will be a big deal.
The next main FF will be XV and probably won´t be on any current gen system anyway. They´ll market it as a new start and I think most FF players will be onboard again and easily sell over 2m units if it will be on a popular system.
nordique
Member
I still think, personally, it is too early to write Vita obituaries yet. I know that opinion is not shared by many, but Sony may yet manage to turn things around. I will reconsider my stance on that after it has had its first holiday in the west. That said, I do not deny the system is very much in a dire situation in Japan, and elsewhere as well.
In Japan, specifically, I agree there isn't much reason for developers to support the Vita over the 3DS.
3DS has a healthy software selling ecosystem for third parties, the userbase is much, much larger and only growing faster, it has lower developer costs compared to the Vita yet the performance is still an upgrade over the PSP, it has attractive secondary features such as streetpass which would be very popular in a pedestrian centric country like Japan especially the larger metropolitan areas, and Nintendo seems determined in securing the future of the system as the dominant video game system in Japan. It is a win-win-win scenario to support it, much like the PS2 had in much of the previous decade.
The only thing I can think of, is that some developers may want to take advantage of a certain niche, much like some third party titles were made on the Gamecube. Some developers might feel that with the lack of compelling experiences, with a system that seems assured to sell at least a million installed base, there might be some benefit to put out a game that software starved owners would dip into. Soul Sacrifice and, as you said, Miku should be great indicators of that.
Any one have a release schedule for the currently known releases for the rest of August, Sept, Oct, Nov and Dec for the 3DS and Vita?
thehypocrite
Member
Weak sales for DQX and Mario.
It was first released on the PS2 only in 05/2002. The PC version came later in 11/2002.
We don't have complete sell-through numbers, but total shipment as of 03/2003 was 340k.
In Japan, it's clear DQX has started much better, before we even take into account the Wii U version.
snowdog1971
Banned
Not that surprising to me personally, despite its new MMO guise the Dragon Quest franchise is always going to sell systems. If the U launches in Japan with NSMB U as a launch title and Dragon Quest X as a launch or launch window title Nintendo won't be able to make the consoles quick enough.
nordique
Member
On Vita?
Unlikely. Conquest did good on the DS, and also because of Pokemon. Its a different scenario, though I do understand what you mean.
Internationally and (most likely) currently, yes. However, as a Japan-only thing even in 2006 the user ratio was heavily PS2:
http://game.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/20060324/sa15.htm
This number would likely have been more lopsided if international server mergers didn't occur, as there was a considerable loss in the Japanese playerbase once they got tired of NA/EU players that they couldn't communicate with and had an extremely lax playstyle that didn't match the fairly rigid style expected of in FF11 party play.
Another thing to keep in mind is that it took almost 2 years for subscriber count to reach 500K with FF11 (announcement ~Mar/Apr 2004. This is 2 yrs from Japanese release, 1/yr from NA release). That DQX has nearly attained this number with a Japan only release in its first week, to me seems pretty significant.
I remember during one 8-4 podcast they had that guy from 1up (?) who worked on Luminious for Vita. He said that the advantage of being on the developer side of things is that you get to see what's happening behind the scenes and according to him there are a lot of really good games in the making for the Vita.
This kind of goes in hand with the Soul Sacrifice reveal, which I feel Sony was forced into doing early.
Going by this train of thought I think Sony is waiting for various projects to be completed and will do a relaunch of the system of sorts, maybe even complete with a price drop. They know nothing will be effective if they don't have the games to show for it, and there isn't much to show if most of it is in the midst of development.
No way Sony is going to let the Vita sink, there's no reason to. There is no fault with the hardware itself, its an excellent piece of tech. Its a slow burner but in the end I think it will do well, especially if they can continue delivering games on level of Soul Sacrifice.
nordique
Member
The early August release of the Wii version, along with Japanese Wii U info in September, makes me think that DQX will be a Wii U launch title in Japan.
Pretty sure that's not true.
On DQ with JAP only appeal - does it matter if people are buying DQX in Japan or internationally? What if DQX sells more copies in Japan then FFXI sold internationally? Does it still make DQX a flop?
brutal. personally I think players in Japan just don't care about create and share that much.
nordique
Member
In terms of mindshare, I agree with you; its a significant brand that on consoles has been well established with the entire existence of the PlayStation brand
I'm sure I read a few years back it sold at least a million in the west.
Devilgunman
Member
Because of PC release
Count Dookkake
Member
Vita performing better than expected.
Cruel.
I'm quite baffled they haven't done it in the previous months, when things kept looking like shite for many many weeks. I'm questioning Sony's policy here...are they just waiting for the Vita to disappear in silence? What the hell are they doing?
mugurumakensei
Member
*Snickers*
On the topic of DQX, I'll consider it a success if more than 100k subscribe for more than a year.
NSMB2 first week numbers were only for 2 days instead of the usual 4, so it's expected that the percentage drop it's not that big. However I'm sure that the game will have long legs.
walking fiend
Member
You don't need to be a mathematician to see how many subscribers and for how long it requires to be profitable more than a normal release;
a normal release would debut at around 2m, 5x of DQX; so if each player now subscribes enough to compensate for 4 more retail purchase, it will be more profitable.
Assuming that retail version would be 5,000y, and subscription is 1000y, and that the share of SE is the same in both [while I suppose it is much more in the subscription fee], then that means each person on average should subscribe for 20 months.
I guess expecting people on average to subscribe for 20months in 10yrs [which is the duration they are going to support it] is quite conservative
UncleSporky
Member
metalslimer
Member
Oh man...
People keep trotting this out, but how well did it do on the PC? Because DQX right now has over a 300 thousand unit lead on FFXI, so unless the PC version of FFXI blew the fucking doors off of things sales wise, I still dont see how DQX could be considered behind it. This very obviously seems like DQX is ahead of FF11, and it still has the WiiU version ahead of it, not to mention all sales to come outside of its first week...
Thanks for this, I figured as much.
Metallix87
Member
I'm surprised Square-Enix hasn't localized Rocket Slime 3D outside of Japan yet. Seems like it'd be cheap to do overall.
You have a weird sense of humor.
nordique
Member
These are good points.
I think its obvious the Vita won't sell to 3DS's expected heights, but that doesn't mean smaller titles aren't being developed for it (I think this is probably stronger in the west than Japan right now however) that could collectively carve out a healthy niche, or even in the future, propagate a larger userbase that is akin to perhaps the PS3
That said, the rate the Vita is currently selling, is not in line with that. In the end, it depends with developers. After all, the Gamecube got its fair share of some third party support in Japan but was mostly a first party machine. Though the danger is Vita's first party titles [Sony's] are no where near as strong as Nintendo's, nor as purchase-incentive.
If the third party support ends up being in line with the Gamecube, then things would not look as optimistic for the Vita. Though Sony isn't going to just let it die off like people think. They've shown in the past with PSP and PS3 that they are content with slow burning business models; whether it works for the Vita is another story.