Kenzodielocke
Banned
What number would be good for the PS4 at the end of 2016? 4-5 million ?
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Media Create Sales: Week 44, 2015 (Oct 26 - Nov 1)
- Thread starter hiska-kun
- Start date
These numbers won´t be achieved by the end of 2016, these are pipe-dream material considering PS4s underwhelming performance in Japan. Just consider that the current "good numbers" by PS4 were also achieved by PSV for weeks at some point and this system is still at ~4millions units sold after almost 4 years.
Pennywise83
Banned
Considering the fact that Japan has been rejecting home consoles since the last generation, a 20k weekly baseline can be considered good by many - in fact, it's just better than before but still a mild result. The fact that the market is shrinking does not mean every platform should underperform - we have seen 3DS selling well in the past few years. A 40k weekly baseline would be way better, showing a more mass-market appeal.
Moor-Angol
Banned
40k average for homes hasn't been reached for at least 5-6 years, since PS3 probably in best case scenario, almost a decade considering Wii in worst case scenario; considering how bad is the home market actually 40k will be amazing numbers if you have a minimum idea about japan sales
pretty useless comparing handheld oranges with home apples
BishopLamont
Banned
ok call it great, watever u wanna call it, but 20k isn't good watever way u wanna slice it
yeah because i was speaking solely on home consoles right? no i was talking bout all consoles and the overall market as a whole
i dont see wats useless bout it when we've had both handhelds and consoles being on top and doing good numbers
is it that hard to understand that 20k is low? i dont get the shock and awe bout such a statement, on one hand u cite history bout how it's been a long time any console has done so well yet u dismiss the part where it does happen and it isn't just some anomaly
funny thing is if i had said 3ds numbers were bad instead, u wouldn't say a thing, yet because it's a sony system it's all of a sudden good numbers
right, no consoles are doing good atm, if it wasn't for the upcoming nx being some light of hope, things would look even worse
i can see why people think 20k is good, as i said "lowered expectations" but personally they're bad to me
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Even if the PS4 absorbed all the other consoles sales it still wouldnt come close to 50k a week.
The numbers aren't good at all. But the reason you probably got so many replies because the flow of conversation you in initially responded to was about PS4 sales relative to the current home console climate in Japan. Using numbers that (off the top of my head?) the 3DS generally got without spikes and relating them to good console numbers doesn't really fit. Handhelds will obviously do better. Well at least those from Nintendo anyway.
BishopLamont
Banned
yeah i probably shouldn't have said 40k-50k, was random as shit but u tell me wat would be good numbers, we know a platform can support games even if it does 10k weekly like the wii u, but it doesn't make it a healthy console
i dont see the problem in comparing handhelds vs home consoles, why should we be harder on handhelds than consoles? they're both in the same market and we should be as objective as possible, if the 3ds was a home console the numbers will still be just as bad as they are now
should the 3ds' 20k be considered even worse than the ps4's due to such lowered expectations for home consoles? should we have highered expectations just because it's a handheld?
This front-loadedness is a US thing, not worldwide, but we've discussed that to death before.
BishopLamont
Banned
oh and moor-angol u say the ps4 had no releases this week when it did, why not mention the fact that it just recently had a price drop also?
u can't pick and choose what u wanna see, it just becomes pointless
u can't pick and choose what u wanna see, it just becomes pointless
Moor-Angol
Banned
in 2003 GBA was selling more than PS2, so GBA has been a success over PS2 ?
homes are homes, handhelds are handhelds, 40k a week NOW for any home is unachieavable, and you know this better than me....
and when I mentioned "no release" of course I meant "no significant release", don't read what you wanna read
Moor-Angol
Banned
you got the point
thinking about any home selling as the PS2-good-old-times is the same as thinking as a handheld selling like hot-cakes as DS did
those numbers probably won't achieved anymore, it's just a great result that in the latest weeks (except the last one) homes combined sold more than handhelds combined due to PS4 price drop and WiiU trained by Splatoon + MarioMaker
BishopLamont
Banned
i never said the ps4 was a success or not and im pretty sure ps2 ended up selling more than the gba in terms of weekly sales and total sales (dont quote me on this), but thats besides the point as we've seen both do well and 40k is achievable if the platform is attractive, i dont know how u can say this like it's certain, im sure the ps4's performance has something to do with this
then maybe u should have said "no significant release" im not reading into anything, just wat u are saying
3.6 / 3.7 million.
About GBA it had periods it was more successful than PS2 in Japan, deal with it. It was launched 1 year after PS2 and later only held back due to the early release of its successor in 2004, that´s basically the only reason it ended up behind. DS basically just continued the trend of more successful systems in Japan and totally obliterated PS2 in lifetime sales. Also 3DS, looks like to end up on top of any PS console as well, despite obvious changed market conditions.
I think if it manages to touch 4 million by the end of the next yr, it will be mighty awesome.. I think the most PS3 sold in a year was 1.4 million in Japan and PS4 is tracking below and for it to reach 4 milion by the end of the next year it will need to sell 2 million. Which will be great in my view but highly unlikely.
BishopLamont
Banned
ps4 has actually been doing pretty good despite the lack of big releases, next year will be even better than this year due to lower price and bigger releases, but like other sony platforms, specifically ps3, it'll do just average numbers in the end, despite things looking better, 1.5m will be hard but achievable depending on just how big the bumps the games give
Moor-Angol
Banned
your typical nintendo praising just confirms what I said : you can't compare handhelds with home systems, cause the formers always sold more than the latters
so assuming that PS4 is not selling well cause is not selling 40k as a normal super cool kickin' ass nintendo handheld has always done is just comparing apples with oranges, deal with it
unapersson
Member
Well in terms of raw numbers its slightly off as handhelds are a personal device whereas consoles are a household device. So there's a natural multiplier which is silly to ignore. Might be as low as 1.2 or as high as 2.4. Who knows?
BishopLamont
Banned
well if u want to consider the multiplier then u also have to take LTD into account, 20m vs 2m userbase, both selling 20k a week, which is more impressive to u?
BishopLamont
Banned
always? yeah lets ignore every failed handheld and ps2/gba numbers are pretty comparable and ps2 is even more successful than the gba if u take everything into account
crap sorry for double post again
PS3 sold 1.9 million in 2009.
KillerMan91
Member
Fun fact: Before Slim launched (week 36 2009) PS3 was actually trailing behind PS4s this years numbers ( 652k vs 741k). It had pretty huge last quarter with Slim and FFXIII.
ArkhamFantasy
Member
What would be a good number for PS4 the week of FFXV release? (realistically speaking)
KillerMan91
Member
Kinda depends when XV releases. XIII released during holiday season which probably helped (PS3 sold 237k during XIII launch week). Well at least over 100k should be a lock despite XV probably having smaller launch than XIII. Personally going with something like 150k.
150k maybe?
BishopLamont
Banned
mobile/3ds/ps4
third parties have no choice, it'll be a sony success by default, even if nx is a success, it's hard to break that third party tradition when ww success is above japan success only
KillerMan91
Member
Pretty much depends on how long PS4 will be in the market and will the switch to next gen be as painfull as this time around. It's not like PS3 set the world on fire during any year of its life. It just sold ''decently'' for years and years.
I´m just stating facts, I do not intent to hurt anyones feelings. Also there is a difference in selling better but in a similar level and falling off the cliff in comparison. That handhelds sell better just because is also a very silly thing to say, it has more to do with a constant stream of appealing system-sellers more than anything. In context of your argument it is funny enough, that PS4 already sold almost half of PSVs lifetime sales, despite rather bad sales, it also has a good chance to close the gap and a slight chance to even surpass it. Just shows that the argument is really lazy. But to be fair, that has a lot to do with what a failure of a system PSV actually is.
BishopLamont
Banned
yep, pretty much all it comes down to, especially when this generation has so many players than it use to in the gaming market
unapersson
Member
How many versions of the 3DS are there? They've done a refresh designed to sell to the same base, and the newest seems to be the one selling the most at the moment. How contemporary is that with the launch of the PS4
That's why it seems a very apples and oranges comparison. I'm not even sure if you can attach the term userbase to those numbers. Is userbase not about people rather than pieces of hardware?
So I'm happy with both those numbers, but then I don't have over inflated expectations nor to I consider the situation directly comparable to previous generations. Now if the PS4 or 3DS were to drop below 10K per week I might feel differently.
If the PS4 averages 1.3 million in the next three years (very doable), that's ~6.5m, then it can have its decline years coasting towards 7.5 million to 8 million.
But yeah, it won't come close to 10 million.
unapersson
Member
Is it really all that painful considering all the cross-platform engines that let games be pushed out for multiple systems (not just cross-console, but also console/handheld)? It seems a less painful transition than the one for the PS2 -> PS3.
BishopLamont
Banned
that just shows the 3ds is squeezing out every sale it can at this point, if they were good numbers then why would nintendo need to do so many refreshes?
we were talking bout raw numbers right? so how many people actually uses the device is irrelevant, other successful consoles have had their fair share of colors/redesigns themselves
i never really compared it to previous generations tbh, it was others who brought it up, i was comparing them to the consoles in this market today and to me 10k or 20k are both bad, but i can definitely see how 20k makes a difference to some people, as i said again "lowered expectations" due to how the market has been lately and im not throwing shade at anyone when i say this, it is what it is
i guess it comes down to me treating every platform the same scrutiny at the end of the day, while others are more laxed bout it
they're both painful transitions as they have never really been the leader in japan since ps2 days and the short resurgence of psp, next generation should be even easier if we go by the trends these days
Moor-Angol
Banned
I wonder how many times a home system sold 150k in the latest 5 years (launch week excluded obviously)
OfficerRaichu15
Member
WiiU almost did a week before Christmas in 2013(sold like 130k or something like that).
BishopLamont
Banned
how many home consoles have we had in the last 5 years?
ArkhamFantasy
Member
Any chance Sony gives PS4 another price cut in Japan by the end of 2016?
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
I would think a new model.
BishopLamont
Banned
new model to coincide with ffxv seems like a safe bet
Moor-Angol
Banned
130k is not 150k
answer : PS3 on Dec.2009 (245k)
PS3 sold more than 40k :
2007 - 10 times
2008 - 3 times
2009 - 12 times
2010 - 9 times
2011 - 7 times
PS4 sold more than 40k :
2015 - 5 times (estimate : 10 times including Dec. and one week in Nov.)(optimistic)
even PS3 which sold 10mln units barely sold 40k weekly and this should be the standard for PS4 for not being called a failure
well, nothing to add, numbers are worth than a thousand words
Moor-Angol
Banned
BishopLamont
Banned
u really just named last-gen and last-last-gen consoles to pad the list? lol
ur too funny
yep ps4 is a success coz ps3 is such a failure, very optimistic view130k is not 150k
answer : PS3 on Dec.2009 (245k)
PS3 sold more than 40k :
2007 - 10 times
2008 - 3 times
2009 - 12 times
2010 - 9 times
2011 - 7 times
PS4 sold more than 40k :
2015 - 5 times (estimate : 10 times including Dec. and one week in Nov.)(optimistic)
even PS3 which sold 10mln units barely sold 40k weekly and this should be the standard for PS4 for not being called a failure
well, nothing to add, numbers are worth than a thousand words
I think if the PS4 got a 30k baseline with the occasional spike it'd be 'good' for the current market. However unless we see large aeoption next year I don't see that happening. As for comparing home console and handheld console? Sure they're both dedicated gaming devices, but they aren't the same at all. Consoles may have done well in the past, but that time has gone and you have take market realities into account. The last decade has shown us that handhelds have far more demand than consoles. I mean when is the last time a console hae a 40-50k baseline? Just like you wouldn't expect a handheld to do as well as a console in the West, the reverse is true for Japan.
And no the 3DS shouldn't be considered bad now. It's done well throughout it's stay on the market. End of life figured are exactly that. The fact that a newer console can barely exceed a platform that's all but reached saturation shows how well the 3DS has done and the current realities of the handheld and console climate. So yes you should have higher expectations for a handheld than a console. Not necessarily the 3DS, but Nintendo's next handheld should perform better PS4.
unapersson
Member
Well the number of people who use the device is the userbase. That's the key thing when it comes to how much software and services are sold. So not completely unimportant.
I only raised it as you were trying to treat the 20m 3DS LTD and the 2m PS4 LTD as though they are comparable when the two numbers actually quite different. Now if you split the 3DS into its various versions you might get something more comparable (but still ignoring the handheld/console differences).
I'm not sure I see a context looking at just consoles in the market now as to whether 10k or 20k a week is either good or bad. Do you mean compared to the rest of the world?
To me personally weekly sales are neither here nor there, I know there's a lot of attention on them as we have them, but I'm more interested in longer term. For me weekly is way too localised and variable, while encouraging lots of short term excitability around beasting and bombas.
I find it amusing we're still doing the "lowered expectations" stuff. So at one point people were more enthusiastic about the future (aren't they always?) and then reality hit, but does that not just mean those original expectations were simply unrealistic? Should we not reassess expectations based on reality rather than obsess over what could have been?
If they've learnt anything the next transition should be easier, and even the NX should be able to take advantage of it due to the common engines in use now. It's not like the old days where a new platform meant dropping everything and starting from scratch. Which seems to me where a lot of the panic and hand-waving comes from when it comes to cross-gen releases.
Pennywise83
Banned
130k is not 150k
answer : PS3 on Dec.2009 (245k)
PS3 sold more than 40k :
2007 - 10 times
2008 - 3 times
2009 - 12 times
2010 - 9 times
2011 - 7 times
PS4 sold more than 40k :
2015 - 5 times (estimate : 10 times including Dec. and one week in Nov.)(optimistic)
even PS3 which sold 10mln units barely sold 40k weekly and this should be the standard for PS4 for not being called a failure
well, nothing to add, numbers are worth than a thousand words
Well, PS3 wasn't an astonishing success in Japan and sales declined a lot with respect to PS2 - software sales dropped even harder. That said, we should look PS3 average baseline, and how much more than 40k sold during those weeks. PS3 had some nice holidays sales that at the moment PS4 will hardly reach. Also, PS3 had against a still active PS2 at the beginning and a huge PSP which took away a lot of fan base - PS4 is selling worse in an environment with much less competition from Sony itself.
KillerMan91
Member
Developing cross gen games will be definitely even more easier than during this PS3 -> PS4 switch but I was more thinking that having those PS4 versions of PS5 games will hamper the sales and adaption of the new platform. Just like this time around. I mean we are soon entering to third year of the system and some big games like DQ:B, DQ:Heroes 2 and Tales of Berseria will still be cross gen. Especially as dev costs are still rising next time around cross gen games could continue for even longer time.