AranhaHunter
Banned
Curious on your guess for sales....
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Media Create Sales: Week 49, 2012 (Dec 03 - Dec 09)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Curious on your guess for sales....
frankie_baby
Member
Oh as it doesnt seem you already know, monster hunter 4 is coming the same month as soul sacrifice
Isn't it F2P?
To me it seems like Sony, or the big japanese-centric 3rd parties like Bandai and Koei, are encouraging the transition from PS3 development to Vita with these recent dual releases.
It's not a bad plan for Sony, considering how grimm the future looked with barely nothing slated for Oct-Dec, but they would need the same from Capcom, Konami and Square and I can't see these jumping in.
It's not a bad plan for Sony, considering how grimm the future looked with barely nothing slated for Oct-Dec, but they would need the same from Capcom, Konami and Square and I can't see these jumping in.
frankie_baby
Member
There's definitely a version for sale
I define the difference between "port" and "multiplatform" solely by time of release in this list.
frankie_baby
Member
SS will sell OKmaybe 150k releasing in march will do it no favours at all though, most of the rest will sell around the 50k, though some like ninja gaiden probably more like 10k
Magicpaint
Member
Well it is a start! If these releases stabilise the Vita somewhat then things will definitely be looking up for it.
I don't think other peoples misplaced optimism or blind faith is justifcation for others to take the complete other route. That sounds more like having an agenda to me rather than contributing to discussions with their own opinions, especially when it spreads over multiple threads on a day to day basis. Although I will point out that other people do get criticised for being too mindlessley positive on certain things. Let's not forget Skyzard.
But if questioning somebody's posting habbits is against the T&C's then I'll say no more on the matter. I wouldn't dream of asking users to change their posting styles and like I say, it's not normally in my character to moan about stuff like this. Was simply curious.
For what it's worth I am a Wii U owner who enjoys the system and hope it does well, but I agree with your assessment that we should expect drop offs and I do agree that the Wii U could have a rocky 2013 depending on how quickly Nintendo responds to certain things and what they've got in the pipeline. I don't necessarily agree with the way you put that point of view across but that's absolutely fine, and I'll leave you be.
Soul Sacrifice, God Eater 2, PSO2, Sora no Kiseki, Gundam Breaker, Project Jump and One Piece Musou 2 have a chance of selling >100k. It will depend on multiple factors but we can't discard all of these this early.
frankie_baby
Member
Discounting SS which I agree will and PSO2 which is a bit of a wildcard and not clear how its being sold, yes the rest will all sell over 100k but on the other systems they're releasing on
Hero of Legend
Member
Valhalla Knights 3 is a port? Looks new to me.
I wasn't really clear on if it was a remake or a new title in the series.
Maybe AKB1/149 can show us an idea how these multi games will sell on Vita.
mugurumakensei
Member
Toriko max sales potential is at around 250k. Likely sales are sub 150k.
frankie_baby
Member
it will not sell well at all
Hero of Legend
Member
There's also that Senko no Ronde game from G.Rev for Vita, think it's new and not a port?
Well, of course PSP version will sell more, but maybe we can get some percentage between both versions and guess these future releases.
michaelius
Banned
SS, GE2, Tales and One Piece should be above 100k i don't think rest will make it.
PSO2 would hit 100k too but it will be F2P download on PSN so the deluxe version in shops will be more like 30-50k imho.
But Vita sales in the week when PSO2 releases will certainly be interesting.
PSO2 would hit 100k too but it will be F2P download on PSN so the deluxe version in shops will be more like 30-50k imho.
But Vita sales in the week when PSO2 releases will certainly be interesting.
I think that's optimistic. LBW for Vita has manged like 15% of all sales, for instance.
Let's say "One Piece Musou 2" sells 600k, 15% is 90k, and that's probably gonna be the best selling one this side of "God Knows What The Hell Bandai Namco Is Doing With It Eater 2".
The sell-through blog is behind a friend request now. Maybe someone who is accepted will post the info somewhere, but I wouldn't hold my breath.
Cosmo Clock 21
Banned
No, it might as well be a new IP because they apparently couldn't get the rights to the Madou characters. Instead the characters are all clones in terms of personality and appearance. It's also looking more like a roguelike and less like a first person dungeon crawler.
As for PSO2, it is a F2P download with microtransactions and a "premium" subscription. The boxed version going on sale includes codes for the aforementioned as well as some other swag.
Apparently the PC version of the boxed copy hasn't done too hot, so I can't see the Vita equivalent lighting sales charts on fire, although it might do well overall.
frankie_baby
Member
i'm expecting about 15%
I am just not sure what people expected from the Wii U 3rd party stuff besides Monster Hunter. Tekken sold what, 60k or something first week on a much larger user base? Orochi gets released for the 3rd time in a year?
Batman? Mass Effect? ZombiU?
Maybe Tekken and Orochi could have sucked a little less, but they were never going to do well.
Batman? Mass Effect? ZombiU?
Maybe Tekken and Orochi could have sucked a little less, but they were never going to do well.
test_account
XP-39C²
My mistake, sorry. I thought Valhalla Knights 3 already excisted on PSP
I think God Eater 2 and AKB1/149 will only be some indication because those games are multiplatform on portable systems only (PSP/Vita). The other games are multipatform on console and portable (PS3/Vita), that changes stuff a bit, unknown how many that will prefer those games on a portable device instead of playing them on a console.
I agree, these predictions are on the very optimistic side of the scale but to be fair Little Battlers is a kid oriented franchise and the game looked like a PSP game. Most of these multiplatforms are on PS3 and not PSP.
This is also me expecting Sony to drop the price in Spring.
Metalmurphy
Member
Was he banned for using a translator or something? Some warning would have been nice, I saw nothing on the FAQs about it, it could have been me -.-
DragonSworne
Banned
Which one if these games are also releasing on PS3?
You can take those off the potential 100k list.
Sen no Kiseki, Project Jump and One Piece Musou 2 are going to be released bot PS3 and Vita.
I think OPM2 and Project J can surpass de 100k barrier.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
For it to work it needs to go better than the PSP/Vita dual releases have though. I've been saying for awhile that Sony's best bet for Vita in Japan would be cannibalizing their console market, but anime tie-ins and PSP franchises really aren't the best way to do that. The PS3 games Vita really needs is stuff like Yakuza 5, TOX2, Lightning Returns, MGSV, etc. That's the market they have to move over
Cosmo Clock 21
Banned
Is there any actual hype for PSO2Vita in Japan? PSPo2 did really well, but that was an entirely separate game focused around singleplayer and local multiplayer.
Meanwhile PSO2 is supposedly going to have feature parity with the PC version, meaning no local multiplayer or offline play in general. It's also not looking too hot compared to the PC version...
Meanwhile PSO2 is supposedly going to have feature parity with the PC version, meaning no local multiplayer or offline play in general. It's also not looking too hot compared to the PC version...
<20% sellthrough for many of these titles doesn't bode well.
According to Todapon, Toriko 3DS first day is equal the PSP game.
Inazuma Eleven Go 2 first day better than Dark and Shine but not so much.
http://ameblo.jp/tadapon
Well, visually it's not that bad:
http://bumped.org/psublog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/PSO2-Vita-Screen.jpg
http://bumped.org/psublog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Toro-Mag.jpg
http://bumped.org/psublog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Toro-Kuro-Partners.jpg
http://bumped.org/psublog/wp-content/uploads/2012/12/Konnichinya-Toro-and-Kuro-PSO21.jpg
That said, given how successful PSO2 was on PC, that kind of implies they're already attracting their audience, and that the PC isn't really a barrier for them, so there might not be that many people dying to play the game on Vita instead/as well.
Among those who do, there's also a large question of how many of them want to buy a retail box instead of just download it on the platform for free.
Edit:
Here's some notes about the PC version's current status:
Source: http://www.polygon.com/2012/12/5/37...ne-2-plans-to-become-an-international-free-toPolygon said:
Cosmo Clock 21
Banned
Sega's been doing a lot of cross promotion with PC manufacturers with PSO2, too. It's also really clear after playing the game that it was designed with the PC in mind first, and I have some concerns with how some things will transfer over to the Vita.
Are people expecting the game to do well based on the success of PSPo2? IMO if you look at the gameplay changes from PSU snd PSPo1 to 2 it's kinda obvious Sega made a deliberate decision to position the game on the PSP as anime Monster Hunter in space. Can't see the same rhetoric applied to PSO2. I think in this case feature parity with the PC version might end up hurting it.
Are people expecting the game to do well based on the success of PSPo2? IMO if you look at the gameplay changes from PSU snd PSPo1 to 2 it's kinda obvious Sega made a deliberate decision to position the game on the PSP as anime Monster Hunter in space. Can't see the same rhetoric applied to PSO2. I think in this case feature parity with the PC version might end up hurting it.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
PSO2 Vita is such an illconcieved release. The platform's floundering worldwide, it's lacking the genre king (which is on *every* other system currently), and the nature of the game itself (online connected only) is totally at odds with the nature of handheld gaming (portable/untethered, local multiplayer driven). Sega really would've been better off investing in console ports than this and doing a handheld specific PSO project instead like PS0 or the PSP series.
Very cool.
Personally don't care about character customization so the game is pretty much completely F2P for me.
PC and Vita users can play together right? If so then there will be no problems with a weak online community.
Captain Smoker
Member
Maybe I'll start to transcribe the japanese Miiverse activity sundays and compare it to the sales data, so maybe we can get a variable in the future to predict sales (interesting for new releases).
I just compared some numbers and it seems like (at first sight, don't take this as a given), that Miiverse Activity *10 ~ sales (mainstream titles) and Miiverse Activity *3 or 5 ~ sales ("hardcore" titles).
Romance of the Three Kingdoms 12 has an activity of 1.082 currently. (Prediction: 3.000 to 6.000 units sold currently).
*Actually, I still don't know what the Miiverse activity number is exactly (number of posts?) ^^
And if this works for Japan (we can compare the numbers weekly), maybe we can get a better picture of US-sales too.
I just compared some numbers and it seems like (at first sight, don't take this as a given), that Miiverse Activity *10 ~ sales (mainstream titles) and Miiverse Activity *3 or 5 ~ sales ("hardcore" titles).
Romance of the Three Kingdoms 12 has an activity of 1.082 currently. (Prediction: 3.000 to 6.000 units sold currently).
*Actually, I still don't know what the Miiverse activity number is exactly (number of posts?) ^^
And if this works for Japan (we can compare the numbers weekly), maybe we can get a better picture of US-sales too.
Cosmo Clock 21
Banned
On that note, anybody think we'll see PC gaming get more high profile titles in Japan over the next 5-10 years? Dark Souls PC ended up being a success* for From to the point where they actually announced a PC version of DaS2 alongside the 360 and PS3, PSO2 has done very well for being lead PC, and Japan recently launched that one Steam-like service. There's also all that talk about next-gen becoming even more unsustainable for A-AA games. Would the 3DS/Vita fill out that tail even more or do you suppose we'll see a cultural shift in Japan over attitudes toward PC gaming?
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Sort of. From my understanding there are PC and PC/Vita cross specific servers. Basically PC players can play anywhere but Vita owners are stillsort of ghettoized to their own servers.
They can but PC player playing with Vita owners have to connect to specific servers and the game is scaled back a bit to accommodate for the Vita's lesser power.
Btw I don't see why PSO2 vita would be a contender for 100k+ sales, it's a F2P releases, I don't see the retail version doing that well.
That was not the point. Some people here in this thread should learn to respect the view of others instead of dropping the "bias" card so casually, I was trying to add perspective. Take it as you want but if anyone makes an inflammatory post with lies about a poster I respect I am not going to stay silent.
Anyway, back on topic. In order to make this post useful, here is a thought. I am not so sure as some of you that the PS3-Vita games will have low numbers by default in Vita. In PSP-PSVita case, sure, they are both portable, PSP has a much bigger userbase and the graphical difference won't be so high, so I can see PSP stealing the thunder. But I think Vita users will find valuable to have something like One Piece 2 on the go. I think it´s a strategy that can work, depending of the game.
frankie_baby
Member
So PC players would likely just stick to the full blown normal servers?
The issue is that people have to own a Vita in the first place.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
Charlie's observations are always sound, but he tends to screw the pooch on his predictions. I think even he'll admit that. He'll probably take flak forever over 800k, but I don't think there's any real overarching anti-Nintendo slant to his predictions either.
Also, I think he tends to troll Sony way more than Nintendo, and it's always a bit tongue in cheek and not really confrontational. The Sega diehard JGAFer who really seems to have recentered his vitriol on Nintendo exclusively in a dead serious manner is jonnyram.
Also, I think he tends to troll Sony way more than Nintendo, and it's always a bit tongue in cheek and not really confrontational. The Sega diehard JGAFer who really seems to have recentered his vitriol on Nintendo exclusively in a dead serious manner is jonnyram.