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Media Create Sales: Week 52, 2010 (Dec 27 - Jan 2)

Kenka

Member
58M of pieces of software sold on PSP LTD in Japan, ok.

Would I dare to ask how much of it is strictly Monster Hunter ?
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Kenka said:
58M of pieces of software sold on PSP LTD in Japan, ok.

Would I dare to ask how much of it is strictly Monster Hunter ?
11 million.

[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom) {2010.12.01} - 1.950.717 / 3.849.907
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (Capcom) {2008.03.27} - 880.468 / 2.425.320
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 2 (Capcom) {2007.02.22} - 705.281 / 1.671.227
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite [PSP the Best] (Capcom) {2008.10.30} - 25.416 / 1.092.604
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom (Capcom) {2005.12.01} - 113.640 / 686.837
[PSP] Monster Hunter Diary: Pokapoka Ailu Village (Capcom) {2010.08.26} - 256.076 / 483.736
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite [PSP the Best Reprint] (Capcom) {2009.12.24} - 19.832 / 480.319
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom [PSP the Best] (Capcom) {2006.08.03} - 10.606 / 270.114
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom [PSP the Best Reprint] (Capcom) {2007.04.26} - 3.673 / 139.182
 

Kenka

Member
Chris1964 said:
11 million.

[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom) {2010.12.01} - 1.950.717 / 3.849.907
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite (Capcom) {2008.03.27} - 880.468 / 2.425.320
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 2 (Capcom) {2007.02.22} - 705.281 / 1.671.227
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite [PSP the Best] (Capcom) {2008.10.30} - 25.416 / 1.092.604
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom (Capcom) {2005.12.01} - 113.640 / 686.837
[PSP] Monster Hunter Diary: Pokapoka Ailu Village (Capcom) {2010.08.26} - 256.076 / 483.736
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite [PSP the Best Reprint] (Capcom) {2009.12.24} - 19.832 / 480.319
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom [PSP the Best] (Capcom) {2006.08.03} - 10.606 / 270.114
[PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom [PSP the Best Reprint] (Capcom) {2007.04.26} - 3.673 / 139.182


19% of all software sold on PSP is Monster Hunter :lol
 
Chris1964 said:
Handheld launch line-ups (revisions are not included - GameBoyColor, NeoGeoPocketColor, WonderSwanColor, DSi, PSPgo)
Eh, GB Color wasn't a revision, it was a brand new handheld with backwards compatibility. Same for WS Color.

DSi barely has any retail games that don't work on a DS fat or lite, less than fingers in one hand. I think NeoGeo Pocket Color was similar to this as well.

Dumping PSP Go among those makes no sense, PSP Go is an actual revision without any single game you can't play on other PSPs.
 

duckroll

Member
I dunno, I don't view the GBC as a brand new system on its own, probably because of the way it was marketed and how it launched. The WSC was definitely a brand new system though. It was definitely positioned as such, and was supported by a line up which would not run on the WS at all, especially with the support of Squaresoft at the time with the announcement of FF1-3.
 
duckroll said:
I dunno, I don't view the GBC as a brand new system on its own, probably because of the way it was marketed and how it launched. The WSC was definitely a brand new system though. It was definitely positioned as such, and was supported by a line up which would not run on the WS at all, especially with the support of Squaresoft at the time with the announcement of FF1-3.
Well at that time it certainly felt like an extension of GB life (specially with the dual cartridges), but the gbc exclusive games took a notable portion of the lineup. It sure fucked me when my big-ass, yellow GB that played Pokemon Silver couldn't do the same with Crystal :(
 

jett

D-Member
I thought Kid Icarus was a shoe-in for the launch. I also didn't notice before that the 3DS is pricier than the PSP was when it launched, yikes.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Eh, GB Color wasn't a revision, it was a brand new handheld with backwards compatibility. Same for WS Color.

DSi barely has any retail games that don't work on a DS fat or lite, less than fingers in one hand. I think NeoGeo Pocket Color was similar to this as well.

Dumping PSP Go among those makes no sense, PSP Go is an actual revision without any single game you can't play on other PSPs.
GB/GB Pocket/GB Color/GB Light belong to the same hardware generation for Nintendo. That's what I used as base.
Same for GBA/GBA SP/GB Micro and DS/DS Lite/DSi/DSi LL and PSP-1000/PSP-2000/PSP-3000/PSP-Go for Sony.

For NGP Color and WS Color I didn't do any particular search if they are revisions or not, I followed Famitsu.
 
I think the first six games on the list for the 3DS launch will all do well. Nintendogs + Cats will probably be a million seller in the long run. Professor Layton will do very well, great launch game. Winning Eleven, Samurai Warriors, Ridge Racer, and Street Fighter will all see good launch day benefits, all should do at least 100k, probably 200k+.
 
Kenka said:
You mean that the US and us have to share only 2.5M 3DS ? You got to be kidding me.
We're expecting the 3DS to launch in late March, so these shipments only have to last for a week or two. It's not too bad I think.
 

Codeblue

Member
Looks like I'll have to watch Amazon more closely then. Hopefully it doesn't become a Wii situation, because I am not standing outside a Wal-Mart.
 

Celine

Member
Busaiku said:
I'm so glad I managed to preorder it before the 19th.
143oo0o.jpg

:lol great avatar.

Jonnyram said:
So 3DS is the worst portable launch line-up since Virtual Boy? :(
No.
IMO while not a plentiful lineup, most of the initial games seems to be quite worthy albeit heavily reliant on estabilished IP.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Famitsu biggest openings

GBA {2001.03.21}
{2001.03.19 - 2001.03.25} 611.504 / 611.504
{2001.03.26 - 2001.04.01} 323.686 / 935.190
{2001.04.02 - 2001.04.08} 197.421 / 1.132.611
{2001.04.09 - 2001.04.15} 139.499 / 1.272.110
{2001.04.16 - 2001.04.22} 95.324 / 1.367.434

NDS {2004.12.02}
{2004.11.29 - 2004.12.05} 441.485 / 441.485
{2004.12.06 - 2004.12.12} 181.231 / 622.716
{2004.12.13 - 2004.12.19} 220.295 / 843.011
{2004.12.20 - 2004.12.26} 252.919 / 1.095.930
{2004.12.27 - 2005.01.02} 173.915 / 1.269.845

PS2 {2000.03.04}
{2000.02.28 - 2000.03.05} 630.552 / 630.552
{2000.03.06 - 2000.03.12} 154.245 / 784.797
{2000.03.13 - 2000.03.19} 71.780 / 856.577
{2000.03.20 - 2000.03.26} 112.620 / 969.197
{2000.03.27 - 2000.04.02} 165.685 / 1.134.882

WII {2006.12.02}
{2006.11.27 - 2006.12.03} 371.936 / 371.936
{2006.12.04 - 2006.12.10} 109.068 / 481.004
{2006.12.11 - 2006.12.17} 101.956 / 582.960
{2006.12.18 - 2006.12.24} 284.648 / 867.608
{2006.12.25 - 2006.12.31} 121.510 / 989.118

3DS {2011.02.26}
{2011.02.21 - 2011.02.27}
{2011.02.28 - 2011.03.06}
{2011.03.07 - 2011.03.13}
{2011.03.14 - 2011.03.20}
{2011.03.21 - 2011.03.27}
 

cvxfreak

Member
I have a feeling early January sales will be very underwhelming this year. The game stores just don't seem so busy or lively and haven't been so since the new year began. Part of it is because the PSP is sold out everywhere.

Maybe Nintendo's Wii games and of course MHP3 will put up good numbers, but it's a slow start for 2011.
 

Ydahs

Member
Anyone else expect 3DS to explode? I just can't see it failing. It's going to be the must-have device of Christmas.

I jinxed it, didn't I?
 

cvxfreak

Member
Ydahs said:
Anyone else expect 3DS to explode? I just can't see it failing. It's going to be the must-have device of Christmas.

I jinxed it, didn't I?

We need to come up with a barometer that defines success for the 3DS. Does it have to outsell the original DS to be successful, for example? How much profit must Nintendo make?
iPhone fanboys will call anything not by Apple a failure no matter what, so we can happily ignore them.

Nintendo needs some kind of equivalent to the Brain Training series in order to really push the 3DS out there. Otherwise, we can get the same result going from the Famicom to Super Famicom: a continued success but a drop from the predecessor.
 

onken

Member
If I had to bet I would say the 3DS will be bigger out the gate but ultimately fall quite a bit short of the DS lifetime.
 
cvxfreak said:
We need to come up with a barometer that defines success for the 3DS. Does it have to outsell the original DS to be successful, for example? How much profit must Nintendo make?
iPhone fanboys will call anything not by Apple a failure no matter what, so we can happily ignore them.

Nintendo needs some kind of equivalent to the Brain Training series in order to really push the 3DS out there. Otherwise, we can get the same result going from the Famicom to Super Famicom: a continued success but a drop from the predecessor.
That's what I was thinking. It seems a given all of the traditional gamers will flock towards the 3DS given the strong third party support, similar to the PS2. Well, almost a given. You never know (proven by all the previous launches of consoles and the predictions from gaf :)).

However, you can only go so far with the traditional gamers. The DS userbase really exploded when they figured out how to extend their audience with Nintendogs, Brain Training, ...They'll have to find a similar for the 3DS I assume.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
onken said:
If I had to bet I would say the 3DS will be bigger out the gate but ultimately fall quite a bit short of the DS lifetime.
Waaay too soon to make such a prediction - we dont know how long the 3DS will be sold and how strong the competition will be in relation to last gen. If the 3DS becomes the gaming device it could sell again + 25 million.

Im pretty sure 3rd Party Games will sell better on 3DS though - even if it will be difficult to reach the same userbase.

Since the hardware will pretty much sell out for the first month i would rather predict potential software sales.

Souldriver said:
However, you can only go so far with the traditional gamers. The DS userbase really exploded when they figured out how to extend their audience with Nintendogs, Brain Training, ...They'll have to find a similar for the 3DS I assume.
Is there a reason why ppl. think that AC 3DS, Kawasima 3rd, Nintendogs, AR Games, Mario Kart, new 2D Plattformer, Spotpass Features etc. wont be able to extend their audience besides of Core Gamers ?
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
cw_sasuke said:
Waaay too soon to make such a prediction - we dont know how long the 3DS will be sold and how strong the competition will be in relation to last gen. If the 3DS becomes the gaming device it could sell again + 25 million.
But DS will sell + 35 million
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Chris1964 said:
But DS will sell + 35 million

I know, but its still way to early to predict something like that. Nintendo could release a 3G modell in 3-4 years for now, or even a smartphone version of the 3DS ....such a long-time prediction, when we dont even have information on system features like their online plattform or store doesnt make much sense.
 

cvxfreak

Member
A 3G-compatible 3DS is the way to go, but that probably wouldn't happen with this current model given its relatively low battery life.
 

duckroll

Member
cw_sasuke said:
I know, but its still way to early to predict something like that. Nintendo could release a 3G modell in 3-4 years for now, or even a smartphone version of the 3DS ....such a long-time prediction, when we dont even have information on system features like their online plattform or store doesnt make much sense.

I like how you say it's way too early to make the prediction that it will not sell as much as the DS, and then go on to create a bunch of fantasy scenarios as to why it might. It sorta defeats your entire attempt to sound like you're going "it's too early to make any predictions" and instead exposes that you simply don't like to hear anyone suggesting that the 3DS might not be as big a success as the DS. :lol
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
duckroll said:
I like how you say it's way too early to make the prediction that it will not sell as much as the DS, and then go on to create a bunch of fantasy scenarios as to why it might. It sorta defeats your entire attempt to sound like you're going "it's too early to make any predictions" and instead exposes that you simply don't like to hear anyone suggesting that the 3DS might not be as big a success as the DS. :lol

Thats not true at all - i just stated that things like that could happen and there is no way to predict the market 3-4 years from now. Even if everything works out perfect, i would be suprised if any console outsells the DS in the near future. I expect a Nes to Snes situation.

But as i already said, we dont know how long they will sell the 3DS and how dominant it will be in the next years. We dont know how long Nintendo will keep the price that high - as of right now it clearly being presented as a premium product, so that along will make ist very difficult to reach DS sales anytime soon or ever.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
duckroll said:
No shit, that's why it's a prediction. :p


True, but it would less sound like a Pachter Prediction aka. 3DS/PSP2 and co. are doomed because of the iPhone, if we would had more information avaiable to back it up. Nevermind it will be an interesting launch.... :)

btw. If it wasnt clear - i dont expect the 3DS to outsell the DS. At least not with the current information i have about the system :D
 

onken

Member
cw_sasuke said:
Waaay too soon to make such a prediction - we dont know how long the 3DS will be sold and how strong the competition will be in relation to last gen. If the 3DS becomes the gaming device it could sell again + 25 million.

Im pretty sure 3rd Party Games will sell better on 3DS though - even if it will be difficult to reach the same userbase.

Since the hardware will pretty much sell out for the first month i would rather predict potential software sales.
?

Not at all, in fact I think it's going to suffer just like PS2 -> PS3 (though obviously not to that extent). It's pricey, has debatable upgrade incentive (3D? Graphics? since when has the mass market cared about either?), cheap and prolific predecessor, faces strong competition from PSP2 and the mobile phone market, battery life issue may come in to it... to be honest, the only thing it's got going for it is the networking features and hardcore software line-up, and that's not what made the DS into the monster it is today.

I don't know, maybe I'm just being too pessimistic, but I'm seeing more and comments like "it's the successor to the DS, it will sell on that alone" and "people will complain, but you know they'll buy it anyway", all sounds very familiar. Hell, it very well may sell gangbusters, but I don't where all this extreme, 100% destroy everythinggggg confidence is coming from.
 

V_Arnold

Member
cvxfreak said:
We need to come up with a barometer that defines success for the 3DS. Does it have to outsell the original DS to be successful, for example? How much profit must Nintendo make?
iPhone fanboys will call anything not by Apple a failure no matter what, so we can happily ignore them.

Nintendo needs some kind of equivalent to the Brain Training series in order to really push the 3DS out there. Otherwise, we can get the same result going from the Famicom to Super Famicom: a continued success but a drop from the predecessor.

I think that by pushing Layton out as a "defining" launch game, the growth Level 5 has seen in the past few years has basically allowed them to shine as a really BIG developer/publisher for that platform. I would not be surprised to see a 3DS Inazuma Eleven installment as one of the best sellers of whatever the year it will be when it gets released.

About the Brain Training thing: I think that the BT series basically turned the sales of the DS into the monster it has become, and made the new control scheme acceptable also by the mainstream. 3DS simply does not need that, as it can simply ride the success of the original DS while continuing with the new franchises. Initial sales will most likely be better than what the DS did, and with the already stronger 3rd party support (compared to DS's initial support), math suggests that 3DS will be better than the DS or at least that succesful without a single defining hit franchise.

But of course, reality and math does not always come hand in hand, so we will see.

onken said:
Not at all, in fact I think it's going to suffer just like PS2 -> PS3 (though obviously not to that extent). It's pricey, has debatable upgrade incentive (3D? Graphics? since when has the mass market cared about either?), cheap and prolific predecessor, faces strong competition from PSP2 and the mobile phone market, battery life issue may come in to it... to be honest, the only thing it's got going for it is the networking features and hardcore software line-up, and that's not what made the DS into the monster it is today.

I don't know, maybe I'm just being too pessimistic, but I'm seeing more and comments like "it's the successor to the DS, it will sell on that alone" and "people will complain, but you know they'll buy it anyway", all sounds very familiar. Hell, it very well may sell gangbusters, but I don't where all this extreme, 100% destroy everythinggggg confidence is coming from.

Well, you gotta open those windows: 3D is HUUUUGE right now, as far as hype goes. Did you see the same hype with touchscreens in 2004? Do not worry, we all know that answer already.
 

Glix

Member
I am the most pro 3DS guy out there, but I really don't think its going to come anywhere close to DS numbers until it has a more friendly price.

It might slow burn for a year or two and then explode, we shall see.

Also, New Super Mario Bros 3D will help and so will the first true 3D pokemon. Until then, its very similar to the DS launch, where it had trouble finding its market at first.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
onken said:
Not at all, in fact I think it's going to suffer just like PS2 -> PS3 (though obviously not to that extent). It's pricey, has debatable upgrade incentive (3D? Graphics? since when has the mass market cared about either?), cheap and prolific predecessor, faces strong competition from PSP2 and the mobile phone market, battery life issue may come in to it... to be honest, the only thing it's got going for it is the networking features and hardcore software line-up, and that's not what made the DS into the monster it is today.

I don't know, maybe I'm just being too pessimistic, but I'm seeing more and comments like "it's the successor to the DS, it will sell on that alone" and "people will complain, but you know they'll buy it anyway", all sounds very familiar. Hell, it very well may sell gangbusters, but I don't where all this extreme, 100% destroy everythinggggg confidence is coming from.
I always saw DS->3DS similar to NES->SNES.
 

Baki

Member
My prediction:

First year, the 3DS is going to supply constrained. They'll barely be able to keep up with the 1st year production of DS units (i.e. probably less than 15m units worldwide from feb to Dec).

- 3DS is going to mimic Wii performance during its first 3 years in the US.
- 3DS will never do 7M in one year like the DS did (in Japan).
- 3DS will fall short of DS LTD.

Now onto my analysis:

The high launch price, the obvious targeting (out of the gate) of the PSP audience and poor battery life is a cause for concern. Its also a sign that Nintendo is starting to focus more on the "high-end" audience initially. Which shouldn't be a problem because the device is probably going to supply constrained anyway. But looking at the PS3, anything can happen and I wouldn't say this device will definitely rise into heaven. Although the strong 3rd party support right out of the gate is very encouraging. Not to mention that the PSP2 is a no-show and will launch after the 3DS.

If this things launches at $299 in the US, then it may diminish some of the momentum the DS legacy built up for this device.
 

farnham

Banned
3ds will sell the first 5 million or so due to its household name

the question is will it sell more then that

nintendo clearly is focusing on the hardcore gamer with 3ds

at least for its initial lineup. if you think about the DS it really took off with brain training and nintendogs. in other words casual games. this is an area that is really lacking imo. i also see little to wow the kids market. the pokemon crowd is a big chunk of the ds market so they need to get those kids on board with the 3ds.
 

V_Arnold

Member
farnham said:
3ds will sell the first 5 million or so due to its household name

the question is will it sell more then that

nintendo clearly is focusing on the hardcore gamer with 3ds

at least for its initial lineup. if you think about the DS it really took off with brain training and nintendogs. in other words casual games. this is an area that is really lacking imo. i also see little to wow the kids market. the pokemon crowd is a big chunk of the ds market so they need to get those kids on board with the 3ds.

You do realize that there is a Nintendogs came coming out for 3DS, right? And Layton? is that any kind of hardcore? Do not think so.
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
farnham said:
3ds will sell the first 5 million or so due to its household name

the question is will it sell more then that

nintendo clearly is focusing on the hardcore gamer with 3ds

at least for its initial lineup. if you think about the DS it really took off with brain training and nintendogs. in other words casual games. this is an area that is really lacking imo. i also see little to wow the kids market. the pokemon crowd is a big chunk of the ds market so they need to get those kids on board with the 3ds.

Im pretty sure they will have those games and are working on some new IPs to broaden the market - but its just isnt their focus right now. Even if they put out 10 top casual games right now, it wouldnt be that effective as long as the price is so high. So it doesnt make much sense to put their strongest efforts out to cater to this audience.

But there will be new version of Layton, Animal Crossing , Mario Kart etc. - at the end its about the software, i would be suprised if the 3DS would fail with this kind of 3rd party support and ns first party games. This would be an epic fail....
 

cvxfreak

Member
I'm personally expecting something between GBA and DS performance. I don't mean that strictly numerically of course, but Nintendo's gone back to the GBA approach of handheld gaming by focusing on existing franchises and providing a noticeable hardware upgrade.

The DS is still a very nice piece of hardware that provides both substantial and simple experiences, so I expect the DS to stick around at least as long as the GBA and PS2 did after their successors launched. Perhaps even longer if Nintendo's willing to lower the price on those things. Same goes with the PSP -- in fact, multiplatform PSP/3DS/Wii games will probably sell best on PSP for a little while.

I don't think the iPhone/iPod touch/iPad or Android are huge threats to handheld gaming in Japan. Consumers in Japan are aware that there's nothing on iOS or Android that remotely comes close to the depth of experiences on dedicated gaming handhelds and they're very picky and fickle. If DQXI went to iOS, I think the population would collectively laugh that out of the country.
 
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