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NPD Sales Results for July 2013 [Up2: 3DS Minimum, AC:NL, LM2/NSMBU LTDs, Xbox 360]

Is it April Fool's Day? I need to check my calendar. It's either that or Ridiculous Delusion Day, which my calendar didn't remind me about.

Vita is toast here in the US. A strictly niche platform with IPs few care about and with a price that makes the competition look like a steal by comparison. The promise of remote play won't have this stunning turnaround effect that some seem to think it will, unless Sony bundles one with PS4 and attempts to shove it down consumers' throats.

At least Nintendo has Nintendo IP to fall back on to try and resurrect the WiiU. Sony doesn't have that for the Vita. Killzone and Tearaway aren't Zelda and Mario Kart.

zelda and mario kart didn't do it for gamecube and wont do it for wiiu either
 
zelda and mario kart didn't do it for gamecube and wont do it for wiiu either

Doesn't mean it's going out on a limb to say that those franchises will still do considerably more for Wii U hardware sales (well, depending on your definition of "considerably," lol) than any future release is likely to do for Vita.
 

mr_toa

Member
npdpachterjuly20134jo3o.png


Pachter pls

Given the changed competitive landscape that 3DS has compared to DS, that's IMHO very, very solid performance.
 
So, LTD the Wii U is around just over 1.2mm units in the U.S. Call it 1.25mm just to have an overestimate.

The usual estimate is that the rest of NA is about 10% of U.S. sales. So we add 10% to get 1.375mm units in all of NA.

According to the last report from Nintendo, total Wii U shipments to Americas was 1.58mm units. That means that there are around 200K Wii U units left from those shipments.

If Wii U sales doubled in August and then doubled again in September, they would just barely have exhausted everything they've shipped to the Americas.

:(

The sleeping dragon is about to awake! Man, what a disaster.
 

kswiston

Member
zelda and mario kart didn't do it for gamecube and wont do it for wiiu either

At this point, getting to Gamecube numbers would classify as a resurrection. Look at those GCN numbers from last page. The Cube was selling 4-5x as much as the Wii U at this point in its life.

jesus fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck

What makes it worse to me is the fact that the North America has always been Nintendo's strongest region, while Japan was the weakest for the Wii Last generation.
 

Petrae

Member
zelda and mario kart didn't do it for gamecube and wont do it for wiiu either

Perhaps not, but those IP at least have a chance to turn the WiiU's fortunes around. Sony has no IP like that. None.

It's more likely that both Vita and WiiU remain huge disappointments, but if I had to pick one that had a chance of coming back from the dead, it's WiiU. No question.
 

kswiston

Member
Those December n64 sales are blowing my mind

Wii would have been way over that if the system was reliably in stock during Holiday 2007. I remember being in a Best Buy when they got a shipment in Dec 2007, and they had to set up a special line in the customer service area. The things never even made it to the shelf.
 
Given the changed competitive landscape that 3DS has compared to DS, that's IMHO very, very solid performance.
Probably been talked to death but I don't get Pachter's bone here. Feels like splitting hairs, but I guess it's his job to pick such fights. Anyone know how it compares to the GBA's first 29 months?
jesus fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck
Americans are bitter nationalists: confirmed
 
Perhaps not, but those IP at least have a chance to turn the WiiU's fortunes around. Sony has no IP like that. None.

It's more likely that both Vita and WiiU remain huge disappointments, but if I had to pick one that had a chance of coming back from the dead, it's WiiU. No question.

if i had to pick one i would abstain
 

jmizzal

Member
Them putting a vc game in the pr is indicative of how bad the situation has been.

I see nothing wrong with that, everybody begged for the game and people brought it, its just shows that they are happy about the sales of the game and may release more hard to find games on VC.
 

Deprive

Member
So, LTD the Wii U is around just over 1.2mm units in the U.S. Call it 1.25mm just to have an overestimate.

The usual estimate is that the rest of NA is about 10% of U.S. sales. So we add 10% to get 1.375mm units in all of NA.

According to the last report from Nintendo, total Wii U shipments to Americas was 1.58mm units. That means that there are around 200K Wii U units left from those shipments.

If Wii U sales doubled in August and then doubled again in September, they would just barely have exhausted everything they've shipped to the Americas.

:(

Damn...

Don't see any of the games releasing for the Wii U this fall doing anything. Don't think Nintendo is gonna be able to turn this around. But I'll give em until fall 2014.
 
At this point, getting to Gamecube numbers would classify as a resurrection. Look at those GCN numbers from last page. The Cube was selling 4-5x as much as the Wii U at this point in its life.



What makes it worse to me is the fact that the North America has always been Nintendo's strongest region, while Japan was the weakest for the Wii Last generation.

Not only that, but pretty soon, GC LTD will be TWICE Wii U LTD.

Wii U LTD is ~1.22 million at the moment.
GC LTD at an equivalent point in time was ~1.99 million.

The GameCube is currently selling more WEEKLY than the Wii U does MONTHLY.
It's only a matter of time.
 

kswiston

Member
Think his point is simply that the narrative of the death of Nintendo consoles being made up for by 3DS numbers is completely false because their handheld numbers are down as well.

People who say that the 3DS is beasting forget the DS's 400-500k summer months in 2007.
 

Guevara

Member
Not only that, but pretty soon, GC LTD will be TWICE Wii U LTD.

Wii U LTD is ~1.22 million at the moment.
GC LTD at an equivalent point in time was ~1.99 million.

The GameCube is currently selling more WEEKLY than the Wii U does MONTHLY.
It's only a matter of time.
Lapped by the GameCube. There's no greater indignity.
 
I think Diamond and Pearl were released in the 29th month of the DS, too. At least in NA.

NPD reporting months:

1) Nov 2004 - DS was released
2) Dec 2004
3) Jan 2005
4) Feb 2005
5) Mar 2005
6) Apr 2005
7) May 2005
8) Jun 2005
9) Jul 2005
10) Aug 2005
11) Sep 2005
12) Oct 2005
13) Nov 2005
14) Dec 2005
15) Jan 2006
16) Feb 2006
17) Mar 2006
18) Apr 2006
19) May 2006
20) Jun 2006
21) Jul 2006
22) Aug 2006
23) Sep 2006
24) Oct 2006
25) Nov 2006
26) Dec 2006
27) Jan 2007
28) Feb 2007
29) Mar 2007
30) Apr 2007 - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl was released
 

kswiston

Member
NPD reporting months:

29) Mar 2007
30) Apr 2007 - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl was released

Unlike last year, Holiday 2013 won't make the DS/3DS comparison look much better. If Jul 2013 for 3DS is launch aligned to Mar 2007 for NDS according to your chart, then the 3DS' Nov/Dec 2013 will fall on the same month number as Jul/Aug 2007.

NDS sold 787k units during those two summer months. Last year the 3DS sold 1.79M during Nov/Dec. Even with a Pokemon bump, 3DS is only going to catch up 1.5-2M units this holiday. However, the system will fall behind by 600k at the very least between now and then. 3DS will never be ahead again.

EDIT: Forgot about Pokemon. Adjusted my numbers. Although, looking at DS hardware sales before and after Pokemon D/P, there wasn't all that much of a difference. Feb 2007 was higher than Apr/May 2007 (Pokemon launch period).
 
Yes. Nov-Dec '04, Nov-Dec '05, and Nov-Dec '06.

Thanks. While that gap will likely widen, I'm a bit surprised that the 3DS is that close to the DS considering everything.
NPD reporting months:

1) Nov 2004 - DS was released
2) Dec 2004
3) Jan 2005
4) Feb 2005
5) Mar 2005
6) Apr 2005
7) May 2005
8) Jun 2005
9) Jul 2005
10) Aug 2005
11) Sep 2005
12) Oct 2005
13) Nov 2005
14) Dec 2005
15) Jan 2006
16) Feb 2006
17) Mar 2006
18) Apr 2006
19) May 2006
20) Jun 2006
21) Jul 2006
22) Aug 2006
23) Sep 2006
24) Oct 2006
25) Nov 2006
26) Dec 2006
27) Jan 2007
28) Feb 2007
29) Mar 2007
30) Apr 2007 - Pokemon Diamond & Pearl was released

Now that is interesting.
 
I can believe those December numbers. Did nothing but play Goldeneye with my friends during that winter break. Everyone wanted it.
 
Unlike last year, Holiday 2013 won't make the DS/3DS comparison look much better. If Jul 2013 for 3DS is launch aligned to Mar 2007 for NDS according to your chart, then the 3DS' Nov/Dec 2013 will fall on the same month number as Jul/Aug 2007.

NDS sold 787k units during those two summer months. Last year the 3DS sold 1.79M during Nov/Dec. Even with a bit of a bump, 3DS is only going to catch up 1.5-2M units this holiday. However, the system will fall behind by 750k at the very least between now and then. 3DS will never be ahead again.

I'm not sure you're familiar with what is releasing this October (especially compared with what was released last holiday). I think there is going to more than "a bit of a bump."

But yes, the 3DS will probably never be ahead of the DS. That much is obvious.
 

Into

Member
I know nobody cares, but how is NBA 2k still charting? The season is over, we are months away from the next, i can understand FIFA doing well in Europe since the football season is starting in various countries this and next weekend, but NBA? The series has legs

I really thought the Wii U would get a bump, however small, but alas it was not to happen. Good for the 3DS, its not going to replicate DS success, the chances of that are non existent, but it does not mean it cannot be a successful platform. But like the PS2-PS3, it always will be compared to its predecessor
 

kswiston

Member
I'm not sure you're familiar with what is releasing this October (especially compared with what was released last holiday). I think there is going to more than "a bit of a bump."

But yes, the 3DS will probably never be ahead of the DS. That much is obvious.

Edited my post. NDS sales before and after Pokemon Diamond and Silver weren't much different though. I expect a more noticeable bump because the 3DS' base is much lower, but I think people tend to overestimate the immediate effect of a single game.
 
Probably been talked to death but I don't get Pachter's bone here. Feels like splitting hairs, but I guess it's his job to pick such fights. Anyone know how it compares to the GBA's first 29 months?
Americans are bitter nationalists: confirmed

GBA first 29 months: ~15.88 million
DS first 29 months: ~10.36 million
3DS first 29 months: ~8.86 million (according to Pachter)

People tend to forget how ridiculously successful the GBA was in its early years.
 
Edited my post. NDS sales before and after Pokemon Diamond and Silver weren't much different though. I expect a more noticeable bump because the 3DS' base is much lower, but I think people tend to overestimate the immediate effect of a single game.

X & Y are releasing right before the holiday season. That's very different than releasing in April.

People tend to overestimate the effect of a lot of games, but Pokemon is demonstrably not one of them.
 
29k/4 wk for Wii U is 7.25k/wk.

Japan is currently outperforming the USA with approx. 9k/wk.

I still can't believe Japan, a country that's 1/3rd the size of the USA, is outpacing USA sales.
Japan had Pikmin released recently, which slightly raised the baseline. Not that it makes it look any better.
 

Drakeon

Member
Not only that, but pretty soon, GC LTD will be TWICE Wii U LTD.

Wii U LTD is ~1.22 million at the moment.
GC LTD at an equivalent point in time was ~1.99 million.

The GameCube is currently selling more WEEKLY than the Wii U does MONTHLY.
It's only a matter of time.
Wonder if we can face reality now and realize this ship can't be righted. It won't last 5 years, it'd be lucky for 3 at this point.
 
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