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[Stilton Disco]

Switch VS Nintendo July 2017 Edition

First 5 Months
WII: 2110K
NSW: 1794K
DS: 1654K
WIU: 1076K
3DS: 922K

B = March Launch

Month # until DS/WIU/3DS get close/surpass current NSW sales
DS: Month 7 May 2005 = 1781K / Month 8 June 2005 = 1893K
3DS: Month 8 October 2011 = 1685K / Month 9 November 2011 = 2480K
WIU: Month 13 November 2013 = 1615K / Month 14 December 2013 = 2096K

Very interesting!

It really does hammer home just how much bigger and healthier Nintendo's handheld systems are when it comes to long term sales too, with both the DS and 3DS getting beaten here by the Wii and WiiU, but going on to outsell them by 50m a piece.

Definitely bodes well for the Switches hybrid nature, especially once 3DS support finally gets dropped and we see more of its third party support and of course Pokemon making the jump over.

 

[geordiemp]

It's not true about Nintendo at this point though. You could have made this argument a couple years ago, but not now.

Maybe the trajectory of Nintendo will continue, they are still around 5 million so its early days. Can you predict sales over next 3-4 years - I cant.

My point is that at 30 million, MS is not dead, their rate could change, so could Nintendo and Sony.

2 Gens ago I was Nintendo, last Gen MS with 360 this gen Ps4.....it takes a bold or unwise man to start proclaiming wins or failure.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Maybe the trajectory of Nintendo will continue, they are still around 5 million so its early days. Can you predict sales over next 3-4 years - I cant.

My point is that at 30 million, MS is not dead, their rate could change, so could Nintendo and Sony.

2 Gens ago I was Nintendo, last Gen MS with 360 this gen Ps4.....it takes a bold or unwise man to start proclaiming wins or failure.

No one is saying MS is dead but their sales have decrease somewhat dramatically in 2017, while both Sony and Nintendo have increased hardware sales. MS is not performing nearly as well as they could or should be during their console's fourth year on the market.

And this this is just NA we're talking about. Let's not get started on their position on a global scale.

 

[geordiemp]

No one is saying MS is dead but their sales have decreased dramatically in 2017, while both Sony and Nintendo have increased sales. MS is not performing nearly as well as they could or should be during their console's fourth year on the market.

MS has a new console coming out soon, so lets see. If I was about to drop an Xb1s, I would wait for Scorpio. I was interested but it still has Jaguar, so am waiting for a Ryzen console before ditching my Pro.

Nintendo has a new console out and is in the first 6 month honeymoon period. Lets see.

The only safe bet is that Ps4 will lead for another year or so, then time for another round of fun with new toys.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

MS has a new console coming out soon, so lets see. Nintendo has a new console out and is in the first 6 month honeymoon period.

You're downplaying the current success of Switch. Only Wii has sold faster for Nintendo, launch aligned. That's a big deal. And it hasn't even seen its first holiday.

MS does have a new $500 mid-gen refresh launching soon, correct. Hopefully they're not betting the future of Xbox on it.

 

[AniHawk]

Very interesting!

It really does hammer home just how much bigger and healthier Nintendo's handheld systems are when it comes to long term sales too, with both the DS and 3DS getting beaten here by the Wii and WiiU, but going on to outsell them by 50m a piece.

Definitely bodes well for the Switches hybrid nature, especially once 3DS support finally gets dropped and we see more of its third party support and of course Pokemon making the jump over.

the big thing is that nintendo's own support is going to stay consistent through 2018. fire emblem, pokemon, metroid prime, yoshi, and kirby are all games we know right now are slated for next year. they've done a remarkable job at managing their pipeline to have kept the 3ds viable in 2017 while supporting their new platform. i'd say that even the wii u's 2016 lineup was surprisingly big given that the switch launched only a year later (and they needed all hands on deck for the machine).

and overall i think they've done a great job of rebuilding their brand. the worst thing you can say about the switch is that it's 'underpowered', but it comes with the very nice value proposition of being a handheld platform as well as a console platform. there's no 'kiddie' or 'casual' stigma attached to the switch because the game that made it a success was zelda and not wii sports or mario. really, the switch is the platform the wii u should have been, and it's the kind of handheld i think sony always wanted but didn't know how to make.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

MS has a new console coming out soon, so lets see. If I was about to drop an Xb1s, I would wait for Scorpio. I was interested but it still has Jaguar, so am waiting for a Ryzen console before ditching my Pro.

Nintendo has a new console out and is in the first 6 month honeymoon period. Lets see.

The only safe bet is that Ps4 will lead for another year or so, then time for another round of fun with new toys.

Pretty sure the honeymoon officially ended for people by the time Mario Kart came out.

 

[geordiemp]

You're downplaying the current success of Switch. Only Wii has sold faster for Nintendo, launch aligned. That's a big deal. And it hasn't even seen its first holiday.

MS does have a new $500 mid-gen refresh launching soon, correct. Hopefully they're not betting the future of Xbox on it.

Did not Ps4 sell like 2 million in the first week - I cant remember lol - initial trajectories are all about modern production, inventories, planning and logistics.

I am not downplaying anything, Switch is already better than WiiU, too early to say will it cross from Nintendo fans to Mainstream, but even with Nintendo fans it should do 3DS +WiiU numbers which is more than MS will do is my guess.

If you think Swicth will sell Wii trajectory, maybe it will, we will see, once stocks are stable in USA and its been out 8 months I will have an opinion.

My Guess is 3DS like sales to that audience, but who knows.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Very interesting!

It really does hammer home just how much bigger and healthier Nintendo's handheld systems are when it comes to long term sales too, with both the DS and 3DS getting beaten here by the Wii and WiiU, but going on to outsell them by 50m a piece.

Definitely bodes well for the Switches hybrid nature, especially once 3DS support finally gets dropped and we see more of its third party support and of course Pokemon making the jump over.

To be fair this is partly the fault of DS and 3DS both having sluggish launches in the US that didn't represent their performance later on, it wasn't just about longevity. Can be argued that both Wii and Switch would have sold more with more stock though!

 

[OrbitalBeard]

I am not downplaying anything, Switch is already better than WiiU, too early to say will it cross from Nintendo fans to Mainstream, but even with Nintendo fans it should do 3DS +WiiU numbers which is more than MS will do is my guess.

Nah, we've passed that point. It's definitely crossed over. That doesn't mean it's going to do Wii numbers, but it's absolutely selling beyond Nintendo's core demographic.

 

[SinCityAssassin]

I am not downplaying anything, Switch is already better than WiiU, too early to say will it cross from Nintendo fans to Mainstream, but even with Nintendo fans it should do 3DS +WiiU numbers which is more than MS will do is my guess.

Id argue that it already has, it's still building up but the Switch and Nintendo itself has become a lot more relevant this year to the masses than the Wii U had ever been.

 

[AniHawk]

Maybe the trajectory of Nintendo will continue, they are still around 5 million so its early days. Can you predict sales over next 3-4 years - I cant.

i can. it's not science, but there's a lack of precedent for a system to do this well out of the gate and then fail later on. probably your closest example of that is n64, which wasn't a big success in the eu or japan, but sold 20m in the us. the next closest example might be xbox one, which did great at launch, but only in the us too, and seems set for a 40m-50m life.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

I sense something about "will stop selling once it's sold to the 20m or so core Nintendo fans" coming soon

 

[ksamedi]

Historically successful consoles sell a lot more in their second and third year. I think the Switch is just warming up. It will be even bigger next year.

 

[Stilton Disco]

I sense something about "will stop selling once it's sold to the 20m or so core Nintendo fans" coming soon

I was one of those doubting Dennis's for the first three months or so! I was clearly hilarious wrong!

I still think Wii numbers are out of the question, but Nintendo have really got their shit together this time, and, as long as they don't get distracted, I can totally see Switch beating both the 3DS and WiiU combined.

 

[Bronetta]

DS had a slow burn in the US at first I think. I can't remember when sales went nuts, but both it and the Wii had some crazy non-holiday months in 2007 I believe.

Sales went nuts when the DS Lite revision came out along with Brain Age in 2006.

It was selling well before then but thats when it really blew up.

 

[Dark Cloud]

I sense something about "will stop selling once it's sold to the 20m or so core Nintendo fans" coming soon

It wasn't even supposed to hit 20 million according to posters here. Remember the old "how many switches will be sold?" Some said it wouldn't pass the Wii U.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

It wasn't even supposed to hit 20 million according to posters here. Remember the old "how many switches will be sold?" Some said it wouldn't pass the Wii U.

Heh, it was more a throwback to what people said about the Wii following the Gamecube.

 

[geordiemp]

It wasn't even supposed to hit 20 million according to posters here. Remember the old "how many switches will be sold?" Some said it wouldn't pass the Wii U.

Switch has sold 5 million, they are not wrong yet lol.

 

[AmayaPapaya]

Man, GTA could keep 2k and Take 2 alive single handedly if none of their other games sold anything.

Zelda got dem legs. Noice. Splatoon! Great to see.

 

[DrGrus]

I still think Wii numbers are out of the question, but Nintendo have really got their shit together this time, and, as long as they don't get distracted, I can totally see Switch beating both the 3DS and WiiU combined.

Please correct any numbers that might be wrong below.

3ds ww should be close to 70 millions after 2017.

WiiU ended at around 13 millions.

So in total around 83 millions assuming no 3ds is sold during 2018. Wii sold around 100 millions.

Can switch reach 85 millions I think Wii numbers might be possible.

 

[Mory Dunz]

I am not downplaying anything, Switch is already better than WiiU, too early to say will it cross from Nintendo fans to Mainstream, but even with Nintendo fans it should do 3DS +WiiU numbers which is more than MS will do is my guess.

?
It'll sell 80-85 million but not cross into mainstream?
...how many nintendo fans do you think there are?

Or you thought 3ds sold less than it did maybe?

 

[AniHawk]

edit: apologies to drgrus. i lacked context on my reply.

 

[AniHawk]

Historically successful consoles sell a lot more in their second and third year. I think the Switch is just warming up. It will be even bigger next year.

if nintendo can hit 14m this fiscal year, they'd be primed for 18m next fiscal year and possibly 20m the year after. i'm expecting a revision in 2018 or 2019 to be more of a traditional handheld form factor that should really drive growth.

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=246474548&postcount=635

Thanks man.

 

[Stilton Disco]

Please correct any numbers that might be wrong below.

3ds ww should be close to 70 millions after 2017.

WiiU ended at around 13 millions.

So in total around 83 millions assuming no 3ds is sold during 2018. Wii sold around 100 millions.

Can switch reach 85 millions I think Wii numbers might be possible.

Is 3DS at 70m?! I thought it was at 60! Well then, go 3DS!

I'm really not sure where I think Switch will land eventually then. 60m is definitely a lock, but I'm really not sure it will crack 80m. Here's hoping though, and I'll definitely be doing my part next year!

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

Splatoon and crash are doing damn good.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Is 3DS at 70m?! I thought it was at 60! Well then, go 3DS!

Currently high 60s, will be near or above 70m by the end of 2017 like the poster said.


I'm not going to make any more guesses for Switch after I said 15m or whatever it was.. but that was strictly for the first design and I still expect revisions/alternate forms to come out fairly regularly.
Actually does anyone have figures for what the original model of 3DS (not xl) or DS (not lite) sold worldwide?

 

[noshten]

With its current trajectory Switch will be close to 2 million in August if not slightly above it. I don't see a situation where October is a month Nintendo ships less than 500K with SMO launching. While November and December are generally months during which we can expect even larger quantities for the biggest shopping months. In the end of the year if manufacturing constraints have been lifted we could be looking above 5 million sold in the US.

While Japan at the current time looks primed to get over 4 million shipped by the end of the year. Currently the Switch has sold 1.4 million and it's likely that another million is shipped for December. Between the end of August and December you have three months which at the current shipment size would be 1 million. Nintendo has said they are going to supply larger quantities in the fall, so 1 million figure is a bit conservative.

Nintendo France expecting 1 million by the end of the year and had sold 250K by June.

So overall we might be looking at figure close to 10 million in just the three biggest Nintendo markets.

 

[TaterTots]

I am curious about how many people bought PUBG. That's the hot shit on PC right now.

 

[Malakai]

....

Nintendo knows the power of play, and that not every toy will sell as well as hoped, but that a toy that isn't fun to play with, just is not worth making. That simple feeling of joy carries them through a broader incompetence in many, many areas, that millions of people (myself included) are willing to forgive them for, because they really do, genuinely, want their customers to have fun and be happy.
...

I'm going to inject for a moment and bring up Sony's "incompetencies" on the entertainment side. Let see, rootkits on music CDs, compromised networks (PSN down for nearly a whole month w/ users identities compromised and email accounts that was hacked on the Sony's movie division) and Sony shipping faulty build consoles like the original Playstation. Oh yeah, Sony's bright idea to lose hundreds and hundreds of dollars on the launch PS3, yet Nintendo is the one that is describe as incompetence. Whatever dude.

 

[Welfare]

I am curious about how many people bought PUBG. That's the hot shit on PC right now.

It's over 7M right now on PC.

Once it hits XB1 Preview, that's and easy million seller, and as will the PS4 version.

 

[kyser73]

It is only useless if you do not understand the concept of a service. Xbox is much more than Xbox console hardware, it is becoming a service. But if you consider it useless, fine. I do not.

Two factors:

1. As you've admitted, Xbox revenues represent more than just console revenues. The equivalent for Sony would be to include mobile gaming revenues from the Music division which IIRC is where one of Sony's two mobile gaming ventures sits.

2. Sony's console sales go into markets where services revenues will be lower due to e.g. local online being poor, lower income levels, Forex issues & so on.

So taking all these into account, your point about Sony's business being 'poor' is revealed as the fanboy nonsense it is.

Also worth pointing out that it is precisely that commitment to developing markets that has given Sony a massive competitive advantage globally over MS and even Nintendo. It's why the NA market is only ~30% of their install base and not 50-60% (possibly even higher now) for MS.

I'm going to inject for a moment and bring up Sony's "incompetencies" on the entertainment side. Let see, rootkits on music CDs, compromised networks (PSN down for nearly a whole month w/ users identities compromised and email accounts that was hacked on the Sony's movie division) and Sony shipping faulty build consoles like the original Playstation. Oh yeah, Sony's bright idea to lose hundreds and hundreds of dollars on the launch PS3, yet Nintendo is the one that is describe as incompetence. Whatever dude.

He addresses exactly that issue in his last paragraph.

 

[Jon Carter]

Yeah, Nintendo has always been weak in regions outside of the big three and that really hurts the legs of their systems. Wii shouldn't have stopped at 100 million. I wish they'd figure something out.

 

[ggx2ac]

Nintendo has a new console out and is in the first 6 month honeymoon period. Lets see.

Fucking lol

The honeymoon periods just get longer and longer now. It's as though they're just arbitrary until the 'sales will fall off a cliff' occurs to try to win the argument.

That honeymoon period will have to keep going until 2018 since we're heading into the holidays next so we can't expect demand to fall then.

 

[NSESN]

I wonder if Switch will be able to keep up with 3DS after its price drop launch aligned.

 

[D.Lo]

Fucking lol

The honeymoon periods just get longer and longer now. It's as though they're just arbitrary until the 'sales will fall off a cliff' occurs to try to win the argument.

That honeymoon period will have to keep going until 2018 since we're heading into the holidays next so we can't expect demand to fall then.

The Wii had a five year honeymoon period. Then when it followed a standard console trajectory and dropped off in year 5 (more abruptly than usual, largely because Nintendo turned to supporting the 3DS third parties had shat the bed on the most explosively successful console with the fastest sales velocity of all time), they said 'see it was a fad all along! Just a five year fad!'.

 

[PeakPointMatrix]

Crash is dead you guys.

Also never good.

 

[Jon Carter]

Crash is dead you guys.

Also never good.

A king dies, another rises.

 

[Spieler Eins]

Crash is dead you guys.

Also never good.

Too bad it couldn't get on the top spot because of its late June release. The people that were pushing that narrative already had a hard time dealing with the top spots for Crash in other countries.

 

[OrbitalBeard]

Too bad it couldn't get on the top spot because of its late July release. The people that were pushing that narrative already had a hard time dealing with the top spots for Crash in other countries.

Crash launched in late June.

 

[The Wart]

Nah, we've passed that point. It's definitely crossed over. That doesn't mean it's going to do Wii numbers, but it's absolutely selling beyond Nintendo's core demographic.

The size of Nintendo's fanbase and the rate at which they purchase games seems to magically adapt to whatever the Switch's performance is.

 

[Malakai]

Two factors:



He addresses exactly that issue in his last paragraph.

The poster didn't address it. The poster equated Nintendo to having many incompetent that many overlook. The poster didn't characterized Sony in the same light while Sony mess ups had the potential make life hell outside the gaming.

 

[D.Lo]

Yeah, Nintendo has always been weak in regions outside of the big three and that really hurts the legs of their systems. Wii shouldn't have stopped at 100 million. I wish they'd figure something out.

I always say, they should have whipped up a cricket game and sold a version of the Wii in India. Approximately one billion Indians love cricket.

 

[Fiendcode]

Actually does anyone have figures for what the original model of 3DS (not xl) or DS (not lite) sold worldwide?

DS = 18.79m, 3DS = 26.25m

 

[Neith]

Maybe the trajectory of Nintendo will continue, they are still around 5 million so its early days. Can you predict sales over next 3-4 years - I cant.

My point is that at 30 million, MS is not dead, their rate could change, so could Nintendo and Sony.

2 Gens ago I was Nintendo, last Gen MS with 360 this gen Ps4.....it takes a bold or unwise man to start proclaiming wins or failure.

MS didn't win anything really. By all accounts they eventually lost the generation overall if only by a tiny bit. But RRoD screwed them to high heaven.

And there is nothing pointing to MS turning anything around at this point. There is not one sign that says hey we're gonna sell 20m really quick.

I wouldn't call MS dead, but it's definitely a huge failure at this point.

 

[freefornow]

Too bad it couldn't get on the top spot

Maybe it did in retail units sold. This is a revenue Top 10. $60 vs $40 and all that

 

[freefornow]

oops

 

[Jaded Alyx]

Maybe it did in retail units sold. This is a revenue Top 10. $60 vs $40 and all that

Splatoon 2 doesn't include digital sales though. So it's even more complex.

 

[Branduil]

The Xbox brand is dead, permanently, in Japan. They tried really hard to get a foothold there with the 360 but in the end it was never more than a niche otaku console, despite all the bought exclusives. With Xbone they just gave up.

Europe doesn't seem promising either, with Sony's rock-solid base there. And certainly not Asia nor the rest of the world either.

So the success of the Xbox will continue to ride on its performance in the US, the only major market it ever has a realistic chance of winning. It's a weird middle ground where the brand is quite popular in one territory, but mediocre-to-nonexistent everywhere else.

I think it's plausible that the Switch and Nintendo's resurgence could hurt them as well, if the Switch supplants it as the most popular second-choice for a console. They certainly did pick a bad time for their software drought, as Sony continues to stockpile their huge advantage in sales and exclusive, and Nintendo comes out with a killer first year lineup for their hot new hybrid.