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NPD Sales Results for September 2009
- Thread starter EviLore
- Start date
meh at PS3 sales. Yeah it sold higher than Wii but I'm sure Sony (and most others) were expecting it would sell much higher than just 20k more. Not sure what this means for next month but I don't exactly see it outselling it again.
Am I wrong in my assumptions?
As for Dead Space, remember folks, this is ONLY 2 days worth of sales. Nearly 10k in two days is not bad. I'm sure it's lifetime sales will be around 400k in NA (don't forget the Holiday season is approaching). The game is bound to get good word of mouth and already has good-great reviews. Perhaps a price drop is needed but I'm sure when all is said it done it will do numbers that are satisfactory. Also, let's not forget the European market.
Am I wrong in my assumptions?
As for Dead Space, remember folks, this is ONLY 2 days worth of sales. Nearly 10k in two days is not bad. I'm sure it's lifetime sales will be around 400k in NA (don't forget the Holiday season is approaching). The game is bound to get good word of mouth and already has good-great reviews. Perhaps a price drop is needed but I'm sure when all is said it done it will do numbers that are satisfactory. Also, let's not forget the European market.
boiled goose
good with gravy
People saying this is it for mature games on wii are really missing the whole picture. Based on actual game sales, for a mature game to succeed on wii, it needs to possess certain qualities:
Recognizable brand: Resident Evil 4, House of the Dead overkill, Call of Duty WaW, Resisdent Evil Umbrella Chronicles, House of the Dead 2/3 Return, Call of duty 3
If it is a port, it has to be high quality: Resident evil 4, CodWAW (missed some features, but was one of best online experiences on wii and controls were decent)
Moderate successes: The conduit will probably hit 400k within wiis lifespan, IMO madworld (deemed as a failure by Sega, but it outsold godhand in a few months which indicates to me segas expectations were off)
the only outliers to this trend are: No more hereos, in my opinion simply came at the right time. Red Steel had some hype and was launch game.
Failures: far cry, dead space extraction,
unknown but likely failures: godfather, scarface, manhunt 2, am i forgetting something... or is that it???
not many mature wii games have hit the wii, and none of them have been a high budget game that got unanimous critical acclaim and was not a rail shooter or a port. (many of those games were infact T for teen)
those are the trends that I can see from the data.
There has not been a high budget AAA mature game from a big publisher on wii yet, so it is really hard to predict how it would perform. Like opiate keeps saying, it probably will never happen.
Curious to see how No more heroes two and red steel two perform...
Recognizable brand: Resident Evil 4, House of the Dead overkill, Call of Duty WaW, Resisdent Evil Umbrella Chronicles, House of the Dead 2/3 Return, Call of duty 3
If it is a port, it has to be high quality: Resident evil 4, CodWAW (missed some features, but was one of best online experiences on wii and controls were decent)
Moderate successes: The conduit will probably hit 400k within wiis lifespan, IMO madworld (deemed as a failure by Sega, but it outsold godhand in a few months which indicates to me segas expectations were off)
the only outliers to this trend are: No more hereos, in my opinion simply came at the right time. Red Steel had some hype and was launch game.
Failures: far cry, dead space extraction,
unknown but likely failures: godfather, scarface, manhunt 2, am i forgetting something... or is that it???
not many mature wii games have hit the wii, and none of them have been a high budget game that got unanimous critical acclaim and was not a rail shooter or a port. (many of those games were infact T for teen)
those are the trends that I can see from the data.
There has not been a high budget AAA mature game from a big publisher on wii yet, so it is really hard to predict how it would perform. Like opiate keeps saying, it probably will never happen.
Curious to see how No more heroes two and red steel two perform...
GrotesqueBeauty
Banned
I guess it's not a shock, but Dead Space: Extraction did pretty awful, even given that it came out at the end of the month. It's unfortunate because it was clear there was some genuine effort put into the final product, but EA was either stupid or willfully ignorant if they didn't see this development coming down the pike (and they apparently didn't). Amir0x's view that it's not an inferior product despite neutering half of how you interact with the Dead Space universe (navigation) is just as crazy as Sipowicz's view that the game deserved to go down in flames despite being a thoughtful and polished piece of software. At the same time, Amirox is right that it shouldn't be written off entirely because of it's genre, and Sipowicz is correct to point out that the lack of replayability stemming from the genre is a massive deterrent for those who might have otherwise been interested.
To further address some points that have been made, utilizing the Wii's unique strengths (like IR) doesn't preclude making use of its full functionality. The whole "get an 360" angle is just a bunch dismissive high handed bullshit. They could've made a legitimate full fledged Dead Space game combining the precision of the pointer for aiming and full control over your character's movement on Wii, but they took the easy way out (in relative terms- I'm not suggesting putting out a quality game is easy in and of itself, regardless of genre).
Look at the good will that existed when the game was originally announced, accompanied by cynical yet tongue in cheek comments about it probably being a rail shooter. You don't have to be a marketing whiz to realize the largely untapped "core" audience of the Wii already had a fair degree of resentment based on an obnoxious trend of ports and spin-offs in lieu of fully fleshed out experiences. The wane in interest when the game turned out to actually be a rail shooter was palpable. Anyone could've anticipated (and in fact many did) that the game would have a difficult time drawing interest, especially given people's already existent frustrations concerning spin-offs, and that's to say nothing of the fact that a much more powerful IP has a competing product slated in the same general window. The whole direction Extraction took was just a dumb misfire and missed opportunity on EA's part, and it's all the more disheartening because the game isn't half assed. They really should have known better though. Blaming Wii owners for the game's failure is stupid and tactless.
To further address some points that have been made, utilizing the Wii's unique strengths (like IR) doesn't preclude making use of its full functionality. The whole "get an 360" angle is just a bunch dismissive high handed bullshit. They could've made a legitimate full fledged Dead Space game combining the precision of the pointer for aiming and full control over your character's movement on Wii, but they took the easy way out (in relative terms- I'm not suggesting putting out a quality game is easy in and of itself, regardless of genre).
Look at the good will that existed when the game was originally announced, accompanied by cynical yet tongue in cheek comments about it probably being a rail shooter. You don't have to be a marketing whiz to realize the largely untapped "core" audience of the Wii already had a fair degree of resentment based on an obnoxious trend of ports and spin-offs in lieu of fully fleshed out experiences. The wane in interest when the game turned out to actually be a rail shooter was palpable. Anyone could've anticipated (and in fact many did) that the game would have a difficult time drawing interest, especially given people's already existent frustrations concerning spin-offs, and that's to say nothing of the fact that a much more powerful IP has a competing product slated in the same general window. The whole direction Extraction took was just a dumb misfire and missed opportunity on EA's part, and it's all the more disheartening because the game isn't half assed. They really should have known better though. Blaming Wii owners for the game's failure is stupid and tactless.
Bizzyb said:
The Wii didn't just go up in sales on its own. Nintendo had to drop the price (finally) to compete and that's what made it so close this month. The PS3 nearing 500k is phenomenal, and there's no two ways about it. If both systems had sold 75k-100k fewer, I might agree with you.
Bizzyb said:
Nope
Edit; Jeez those PSP SW numbers are real, damn.
Dragona Akehi said:
Well the writing was certainly on the wall and many a folk pointed it out when it was first announced. I know I specifically said at the time the launch would be muted, but this eh. Lessons learned I guess.
Regulus Tera
Romanes Eunt Domus
Just arriving at the thread, but I'm cackling at the people getting disparaged by AnIco's "it's over for Microsoft" post. You would think GAF would know its own memes, especially those birthed by a mod.
Count Dookkake
Member
Fredescu said:
Gary?
Speevy said:
This was essentially a relaunching with a "major" price drop, and only out sold the Wii by less than 30k, So yeah, "Meh". Now, had it done somewhere around 600k then yeah that's something to really get excited for. Then again it IS September....maybe November will be a better month.
VanMardigan
has calmed down a bit.
amtentori said:
Thing is, at some point the excuses have to end. Much more mature games tank than sell well, no matter how we spin each and every failure. The overwhelming tendency of mature games not selling on Wii overwhelm the few games that sell well and the excuses that can be concocted for each individual failure.
Bizzyb said:
November? There will be large gap between the two in the opposite direction to be clear. $199 Christmas presents yea. Black Friday is going to be a monster.
mujun said:
Well you'd think it certainly should be up over last year's drop to be certain.
Oh wow NFS. Called it as well.
ICallItFutile said:
Much appreciated.
WhiteAce said:
Hey, we have always been half-way there. Even half-way through this generation more or less. 2 million here 139k there, heh.
491k is well above what was predicted by most. Typical projections were 420k. I don't think they care how much they outsold Wii by when they sold more than they thought they would. They are not really concerned with 'winning NPD month', as they are with selling as much as they can.Bizzyb said:
Count Dookkake
Member
I know Wii owners hate tests, but part of the reason huge publishers seem so enamored with the PS3 and particularly the 360 is that they are so gosh darn predictable. That's both a compliment and an insult.
It's a market with a highly concentrated target demographic (the last time I saw figures, the system was over 80% males. 80%!) with homogenized tastes. It's a highly predictable, easily servicable market segment.
To make it even more tasty, this market segment demands games with high production values. Why is that a good thing? Because it effectively eliminates anyone who can't spend millions of dollars making a game. On the iPhone, EA has to compete against Ubisoft/Take 2/Activision -- and any shmoe who has some time to spend and a good idea. On the 360, shmoes can't spend the millions needed to put together a legitimate competitor to CoD or Fifa.
By contrast, the Wii has sold itself specifically on the philosophy that high production values aren't a necessity for game quality, and has produced a varied, unpredictable demographic with more women, more kids, and more elderly consumers.
Huge production companies have got to loathe that. That may sound unfair, but that's easy for you to say when you aren't the one putting up hundreds of millions of dollars in investment capital. These are huge companies dealing with huge sums of money, and it isn't surprising that most of them are risk averse, particularly in this economy.
Heck, some have even publicly admitted to being risk averse. If a major company is willing to admit that openly, it shows how deep the conservatism goes.
It's a market with a highly concentrated target demographic (the last time I saw figures, the system was over 80% males. 80%!) with homogenized tastes. It's a highly predictable, easily servicable market segment.
To make it even more tasty, this market segment demands games with high production values. Why is that a good thing? Because it effectively eliminates anyone who can't spend millions of dollars making a game. On the iPhone, EA has to compete against Ubisoft/Take 2/Activision -- and any shmoe who has some time to spend and a good idea. On the 360, shmoes can't spend the millions needed to put together a legitimate competitor to CoD or Fifa.
By contrast, the Wii has sold itself specifically on the philosophy that high production values aren't a necessity for game quality, and has produced a varied, unpredictable demographic with more women, more kids, and more elderly consumers.
Huge production companies have got to loathe that. That may sound unfair, but that's easy for you to say when you aren't the one putting up hundreds of millions of dollars in investment capital. These are huge companies dealing with huge sums of money, and it isn't surprising that most of them are risk averse, particularly in this economy.
Heck, some have even publicly admitted to being risk averse. If a major company is willing to admit that openly, it shows how deep the conservatism goes.
boiled goose
good with gravy
GrotesqueBeauty said:
Great post.
I really don't know if a "full fledged" dead space game would have been a success. It probably wouldn't have given that it was not a resounding success on the other platforms either. I am certain it would have sold more than 9k though.
If your game sells 9k to a console with 50M userbase you are clearly doing something wrong. I am sure a huge chunk of those wii owners are over 18 and would actually really enjoy DSE if they got a chance to play it. It is no one but EA's fault. They made a quality game, yet it failed at retail. A straight up marketing problem. ( not advertising only, the entire marketing of the game was a failure, from production to perception)
Bizzyb said:
A system trending better than any in history outsold by a machine with massive branding issues (keep in mind the Gamecube never outsold the PS2 in the US, not once), no major exclusive software releases, and a history of never even getting half of 491K in September.
Yeah, I wouldn't say this is the beginning of a trend, or anything crazy like that, but the PS3 sold well.
Bizzyb said:
You misspelled December there.
Edit:
On Dead Space Extraction, an actual RE4-like Dead Space game may have still only hit 50K in its first NPD month, but the major difference from my perspective is that I actually would've bought it instead of not even considering it for purchase.
Christopher
Member
How does the DS have so many units sold and games barely show up on the top 10? So all these people are buying DS's and nothing to play with them? I would assume the software sales would be huge, but apparenlty not.
boiled goose
good with gravy
VanMardigan said:
Please make two lists. In one put Wii's M rated successes. In the other put Wii's M rated failures.
There are about 10 games total.
After you do that , please explain to me how the results are an overwhelming tendency...
Count Dookkake
Member
amtentori said:
Well, if you only look at one of the lists, the results are bound to be overwhelming.
In NPD threads
, I would come for the numbers and stay for the GIFs and Drama. Though this particular month was severely lacking in both... I have a good feeling about the future. I can't wait.... still, November is where the real fun will be had. That being two months away kinda makes me sad
,even before I started to actively post on GAF
boiled goose
good with gravy
Christopher said:
Think about it for a while...
hint: there are games outside the top ten that are selling.
hint #2: there are lots of DS games.
hint #3: the DS audience is really diverse.
MattyGrovesOrMe
Member
I think we need to contextualize the Dead Space = "failure" talk by noting that it was only on sale for 4 days of the sales period covered by these results.amtentori said:
Christopher said:
They are huge. Last we saw, it had sold more software than any other system in the US -- this year, last year, and cumulatively. Even more than Wii. That report was in the earlier parts of this year and last, when it had literally zero games in the top 10.
The DS is probably exhibit A of why most seasoned sales agers don't put too much stock in the top 10.
timetokill
Banned
Christopher said:
DS software sales are enormous, don't you worry.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Opiate said:
Opiate
sometimes very insightful
sometimes less insightful
this time:
very insightful
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
Christopher said:
You picked the wrong month to post this, given that not only did Mario and Luigi debut in the Top 10, but Kingdom Hearts and Scribblenauts were both just outside of it.
And the DS succeeds through having software that sells well over a long period of time. New Super Mario Bros and Mario Kart DS still regularly make the Top 10. DS is a software selling beast, it just doesn't tend to have games that sell a crapload of copies within 48 hours of release.
Estimated revenue:
The Beatles: Rock Band - US$ 60 million
Guitar Hero 5 - US$ 30 million
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ct-games20-2009oct20,0,5760184.story
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=25708
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6237093.html
The Beatles: Rock Band - US$ 60 million
Guitar Hero 5 - US$ 30 million
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ct-games20-2009oct20,0,5760184.story
http://www.gamasutra.com/php-bin/news_index.php?story=25708
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6237093.html
Dragona Akehi
Retired
lyre said:
I was under the impression it was "Better than Nothing!"