CrunchinJelly
formerly cjelly
Even I'm getting sick of Microsoft's incompetence this year.
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Official May 2008 NPD Thread - Wii, GTA IV, and more Wii
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
Agent Icebeezy
Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
cjelly said:
Someone needs to ask them what they are trying to accomplish here with this console.
mysticstylez
Banned
mio said:
Remember the Dreamcast, during any of it's pricedrops.
ratcliffja
Member
mio said:
I would definitely buy a $250 elite 360. Considering the software gape, I don't see myself spending more than $200 for a PS3, even with the Blue-Ray drive.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
bigmakstudios said:
To clarify, when someone says "Microsoft and Sony ought to change their business strategies" they do not mean "I want casual games", they mean "Microsoft and Sony ought to change their business strategies".
Not surprisingly, as a business plan, making money, gaining marketshare, increasing profit margins, and running a sustainable business rank higher than "making random people on the internet happy".
You're in a thread about sales, replying to someone discussing sales. If you don't want to discuss sales, go to the other 95% of the forum.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
Pai Pai Master said:
But didn't MGS3 sell half that with a bigger install base?
Pai Pai Master said:
This is an NPD thread so doesn't it make sense to talk about US numbers?
jts
...hate me...
I like consoles and gaming, and at the right price i'll buy any console just like i bought last month an X360 at 220€ give or take. But that is me, or "us" in a gaming forum. People out there just want what's hot for them, and the Wii is very hot. It's an iPod-like phenomenon where people just don't care if there's a cheaper or even better music player.ratcliffja said:
Thunder Monkey
Banned
Wii kicks ass, PS3 and 360 on life support.
Wii now American market leader.
Just another NPD.
Wii now American market leader.
Just another NPD.
Frillen said:
The PS2 version could do it as could the Wii version, the PS3 install base is under 4.5 million and a big game like GTAIV only got what 1/3 of the install base over 2 months.
MGS selling massive amounts would be a 1st I think (has a PS3 game ever taken #1?), but with the bundling and good hype it could easily be #1
Next month should be more interesting then this month
Count Dookkake
Member
Nintendo Pwns Detractors
bigmakstudios
Banned
Count Dookkake said:
I don't need Nintendo to own me. I just need them to bring more games I'm interested in to their system.
I guess the thing that always surprises me about the way that people on this board react to sales numbers is that all that seems to matter is quantity sold.
To me, that seems like a pretty narrow lens to view sales numbers through.
I mean, one of the biggest factors for software sales that I can see is that you get a "free" 20 percent boost on the HD console side.
For example:
GTA 360 numbers: 871300
at $60 per unit
gross: 52278000
at $50 per unit
gross: 43565000
$10 seems like a small number, but once you are dealing with this kind of quantity, you're gaining an extra ~8.7 million dollars gross off the aggregate sale for a single region, single format, and single month. This doesn't even take into account the usual suspects like capability of duel-console release, popularity of supplemental inflow from DLC, viability of collectors' edition sets, etc. It's just merely talking about the qualitative results of the established acceptable respective price tags of the system differential.
Pretty regularly, I see people point to the fact that big core-gamer focussed HD games are more expensive to produce than many Wii equivalents, but it seems to me like that cost differential gets offset fairly easily. From what I've heard, budgets in the range of ~20 million dollars are still "high end" for the bulk of the space, while big Wii games are, what.... ~10 million? So it's worth keeping in mind, at least, that by the time you reach 1m in sales or thereabouts, you've already offset the difference in price tag to create the game for "HD," and, of course - any additional sales will raise your profits sharply thereafter.
Hey, I know 1m sounds like a big ticket, but if you take that differential worldwide, across dual formats, you add up to that pretty quickly. 200k per region, per console already gets you there and over, right? It's not exactly unfeasible.
So just to further the example and really drive it home - let's say that you manage to sell 2 million units globally of your $20 million PS3/360 title.
The differential between Wii game sales of $50 and 360 or PS3 sales at $60 is equal to, strangely enough, $20million dollars. In other words, it was "free" to develop the game on the HD console, as opposed to "costing" you $10 million to produce on Wii.
Now kick it up to the top-franchise "big players" with something like, 5million units globally, you're talking about an extra 50million dollar gross. It would certainly explain why you're still seeing the Final Fantasy and GTAs and Resident Evils of the world sticking with HD, right. Pretty handy.
Just something to keep in mind.
And just as a caveat - I'm not trying to pitch an argument about the Wii failing or not being as amazing of a sales beast as it is or whatever. It's obviously doing extremely well, and has already cemented itself as a textbook case for disruption strategy (I already know about several leading graduate business school environments that are incorporating Wii into their lectures).
It just seems to me that the "sales analysis" of GAF simply isn't factoring in enough raw, simple business logic to really add up to much of anything beyond pissing contests. Quantity sold isn't even a third of the picture. Directly comparing them in an old-fashioned horse-race the way that many do, just simply doesn't work out.
Just my two cents.
To me, that seems like a pretty narrow lens to view sales numbers through.
I mean, one of the biggest factors for software sales that I can see is that you get a "free" 20 percent boost on the HD console side.
For example:
GTA 360 numbers: 871300
at $60 per unit
gross: 52278000
at $50 per unit
gross: 43565000
$10 seems like a small number, but once you are dealing with this kind of quantity, you're gaining an extra ~8.7 million dollars gross off the aggregate sale for a single region, single format, and single month. This doesn't even take into account the usual suspects like capability of duel-console release, popularity of supplemental inflow from DLC, viability of collectors' edition sets, etc. It's just merely talking about the qualitative results of the established acceptable respective price tags of the system differential.
Pretty regularly, I see people point to the fact that big core-gamer focussed HD games are more expensive to produce than many Wii equivalents, but it seems to me like that cost differential gets offset fairly easily. From what I've heard, budgets in the range of ~20 million dollars are still "high end" for the bulk of the space, while big Wii games are, what.... ~10 million? So it's worth keeping in mind, at least, that by the time you reach 1m in sales or thereabouts, you've already offset the difference in price tag to create the game for "HD," and, of course - any additional sales will raise your profits sharply thereafter.
Hey, I know 1m sounds like a big ticket, but if you take that differential worldwide, across dual formats, you add up to that pretty quickly. 200k per region, per console already gets you there and over, right? It's not exactly unfeasible.
So just to further the example and really drive it home - let's say that you manage to sell 2 million units globally of your $20 million PS3/360 title.
The differential between Wii game sales of $50 and 360 or PS3 sales at $60 is equal to, strangely enough, $20million dollars. In other words, it was "free" to develop the game on the HD console, as opposed to "costing" you $10 million to produce on Wii.
Now kick it up to the top-franchise "big players" with something like, 5million units globally, you're talking about an extra 50million dollar gross. It would certainly explain why you're still seeing the Final Fantasy and GTAs and Resident Evils of the world sticking with HD, right. Pretty handy.
Just something to keep in mind.
And just as a caveat - I'm not trying to pitch an argument about the Wii failing or not being as amazing of a sales beast as it is or whatever. It's obviously doing extremely well, and has already cemented itself as a textbook case for disruption strategy (I already know about several leading graduate business school environments that are incorporating Wii into their lectures).
It just seems to me that the "sales analysis" of GAF simply isn't factoring in enough raw, simple business logic to really add up to much of anything beyond pissing contests. Quantity sold isn't even a third of the picture. Directly comparing them in an old-fashioned horse-race the way that many do, just simply doesn't work out.
Just my two cents.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
bigmakstudios said:
I see you didn't reply to my post asking you why you are in a sales thread if you have no interest in sales but instead continued with "WHERE DA GAMES" in a sales thread.
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
markatisu said:
MGS 4 shouldn't have too much trouble hitting #1. It will be the biggest new game, and GTA will see significant drops again.
Unless Wii Fit actually goes up in its second month, MGS 4 should win with ease.
bigmakstudios
Banned
Stumpokapow said:
I'm not having a good day. I would articulate a direct response to your earlier post, but I'm not feeling up to thinking much right now beyond the track I'm already on.
But to explain why I'm bringing up games, I'm just expressing my frustration with how Wii is wildly successful despite, I feel, a significant surfeit of quality games in comparison to its competitors. I thought I made that clear in my first post in the thread.
B-Rad Lascelle
Banned
Soft-bundling maybe. This isn't soft-bundling.markatisu said:
This is hard-bundling.
Do you see Wii Sports on this month's NPD?
Bundled MGS4 sales won't contribute to its impact on next month's software charts. Only the non-bundled sales will.
Absinthe (Permed)
Banned
The PS3 will receive at least a 50,000 bump next month because of MGS4.
I think the PS3 is going to outsell the 360 most of the months this year, price drop or not. People are saying that the 360 market is saturated at the current price, but I think the market for the 360 is saturated on the whole.
Something makes me think that Sony is going to announce at E3 that Final Fantasy 13 is coming out this Christmas and they won't have to drop the price of the PS3 as a result.
I think the PS3 is going to outsell the 360 most of the months this year, price drop or not. People are saying that the 360 market is saturated at the current price, but I think the market for the 360 is saturated on the whole.
Something makes me think that Sony is going to announce at E3 that Final Fantasy 13 is coming out this Christmas and they won't have to drop the price of the PS3 as a result.
Mama Robotnik
Member
Though its not as profound as last month, from Nintendo's perspective, it still is....
(no Trek this time - spot the obscure reference though if you can...)
(no Trek this time - spot the obscure reference though if you can...)
Ela Hadrun
Probably plays more games than you
Lol @ Iron Man PS2.
I subbed in a first grade classroom today, and that's exactly what one kid brought in for show and tell.
So, the $29.99 PS2 Iron Man has captured the "can't yet read the manual" market. Megaton?
I subbed in a first grade classroom today, and that's exactly what one kid brought in for show and tell.
So, the $29.99 PS2 Iron Man has captured the "can't yet read the manual" market. Megaton?
Absinthe said:
FF will no way make out this year in the states. Whatever the PS3 outsells the 360 up until the holiday season will be erased pretty handily by December NPD. 20k or 50k in a month or two really is nothing. 500k in December like last year for the 360 would wipe that out in no time. Of course, come August I do not see a month the PS3 outsells the 360 for the rest of the year in US NPD.
bigmakstudios said:
The problem is, you're a broken record. You post the same thing in every thread I ever see you in. WE GET IT. You can't find any Wii games you like. Consider the fact that some of us "hardcores" can, that the majority of consumers can, and move along.
You must have a ton of bad days.
eatyobeans said:
Fixed that for ya.
I am greatly disappointed in WiiFit sales. They've been making the things since December, you'd think they'd have a handle on the production by now. Unless this is a distribution issue and not a production one, but still they could have done better.
Plus, I want one and haven't been able to find one.
TheGreatDave
Banned
JDSN said:
:lol nicely done.
Agent Icebeezy
Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
Absinthe said:
What you think and what you want are two different things.
Absinthe (Permed)
Banned
Jtyettis said:
The 360 market is really saturated and I don't think Gears of War 2 is going to make people rush out and buy a 360 when most of those people bought a 360 for the first game. Fable 2 is not a system seller either. A price drop is going to help them, but then you have to look at some of the games Sony has coming out. Resistance 2 will be every bit as big as Gears of War 2.
Absinthe said:
No it will not even be close as far as the marketing push or sales. LBP and Resistance is basically the rest of the year first party for the platform. Many, many kids will be getting 360s for Christmas as they have for the last 2 a million plus for the month with a price drop isn't even a question at this point add in a good 4-500k for November as well.