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[TheKaeptain]

03. Dead Rising 2 (Capcom, Xbox 360, PS3, PC) - 370,000

Wow that's all DR1 sold in it's first month? I always thought it opened with like 700-800k. Maybe I'm mixing it up with Lost Planet.

Dead Rising 2's sales don't seem that bad then.

That was on one platform.

 

[SlipperySlope]

Yeah the charts have been getting more and more top loaded to the number one selling title of the month.

It's very rare for more than two titles to do well, so we're nearing a very hard collapse in the current development model at this rate.

Makes you think. It's sad. We're seeing lots of studio closings now, but it seems it will only get worse.

If the industry can only support 15 or so games a year, the industry will be gutted. Very sad to see the industry entering this condition. It really needs new hardware, and fast.

This is the most precarious situation the industry has been in since '83.

 

[Little Green Yoda]

Well just a hunch but I don't think we are going to be seeing another Team Ninja Metroid. I enjoyed Other M so I'm kinda on the fence about if I think that's good or not. I think they might look at it and try to go back to 1st Person Adventure again which I'd rather not have at this point either despite me loving the Prime Series. Reggie wanting 1.5 million and getting less then 200k yeeeeeeah.

On the plus side, maybe we won't ever see the awkward dialogue cutscenes in another Metroid title either!

Spoiler

we'll get more of that shoved down our throats along with scripted linear gameplay with no chance for sequence breaks

 

[PSGames]

Oh, that makes a lot more sense.

DR2's sales are curiously low, then. The game was well advertised, the original was a million seller.

The only thing I can think of, really, is that people bought the first game, didn't like it, and decided to pass on the sequel.

Not at all. If you look up any 360 'game suggestion' thread. Dead Rising is consistently at or near the top of peoples list.

They waited too long to release a sequel so a bunch of the fanfare had subsided. The game is just as good or better than the original though.

 

[Moegames]

wow what a change. with 360s numbers being published tho, that puts them in 1st yet again this month right? what is that now 4 months? 5 months in a row? Not too shabby going into the holidays. With GT5 delayed and 3ds not out until next year MS has the holiday on lock.

word! I was quite surprised not much talk in the hardware sales honestly...360's flying off store shelves like FLAP JACKS!! :lol

 

[GrotesqueBeauty]

The best part about the state of game development is how publishers have conditioned gamers to have stupid-level expectations of everything, regardless of how untenable. I can just see the hysterics now when a next generation game still has an occasional blurry texture or a framerate that occasionally dips. I'm also looking forward hearing more and more about how anything short of a big budget mainstream blockbuster should be relegated to digital download status, especially if it incorporates 2D elements.

 

[Chris1964]

word! I was quite surprised not much talk in the hardware sales honestly...

It's a conspiracy.

 

[SlipperySlope]

The best part about the state of game development is how publishers have conditioned gamers to have stupid-level expectations of everything, regardless of how untenable. I can just see the hysterics now when a next generation game still has an occasional blurry texture or a framerate that occasionally dips. I'm also looking forward hearing more and more about how anything short of a big budget mainstream blockbuster should be relegated to digital download status, especially if it incorporates 2D elements.

Not just publishers, but gamers. If your game doesn't have a budget of 70 million+, and an advertising budget of 100 million, you have no chance of a good profit. Your best bet is to break even.

Thar be dire straights ahead, boys.

 

[Pooya]

MAFIA II did almost as good as it's first month or maybe more?
Sep
173k< - < 225k

August
[360] 121,600
[PS3] <100k

total <221,600

 

[web01]

Dead Rising 2 is such an awesome game, deserves much better sales.

Improves over the original in almost every single way.

 

[TheKaeptain]

It's not hard to improve over crap...

 

[legend166]

The best part about the state of game development is how publishers have conditioned gamers to have stupid-level expectations of everything, regardless of how untenable. I can just see the hysterics now when a next generation game still has an occasional blurry texture or a framerate that occasionally dips. I'm also looking forward hearing more and more about how anything short of a big budget mainstream blockbuster should be relegated to digital download status, especially if it incorporates 2D elements.

Developers completely missing the price range that exists between a blockbuster sixty dollar game and a fifteen dollar downloadable release is really hurting them now, I think. Like you said, it's completely screwed up expectations.

 

[bigtroyjon]

Have had too much to drink tonight so i can't do it but instead of discussing dr2 sales would be nice if someone could use the new numbers to give us an updated chart. Should be able to start putting together a top 10 sku style.

 

[a Master Ninja]

It's not hard to improve over crap...

 

[Hunahan]

Not just publishers, but gamers. If your game doesn't have a budget of 70 million+, and an advertising budget of 100 million, you have no chance of a good profit. Your best bet is to break even.

Thar be dire straights ahead, boys.

I keep reading this sentiment, but it almost seems backwards to me.

From niche markets, to the indie scene, to Steam sales, to classic re-releases - 2D resurrection, strategy RPGs, fighting revivals, and vertical SHMUPS - I'd say most of the small fries and castaways are stable or in growth.

I mean, I can't remember the last time I heard a whine out of Atlus, Cave, ARC, or The Behemoth - $100m budget be damned.

When you really lay out the companies that are hurting, it's mostly the ones that continue to hammer everything they have into these bloated, overhyped flops.

It's difficult to feel pity for an entity that is both the victim and the perpetrator.

Sorry, no tears to spare.

 

[SapientWolf]

I keep reading this sentiment, but it almost seems backwards to me.

From niche markets, to the indie scene, to Steam sales, to classic re-releases - 2D resurrection, strategy RPGs, fighting revivals, and vertical SHMUPS - I'd say most of the small fries and castaways are stable or in growth.

I mean, I can't remember the last time I heard a whine out of Atlus, Cave, ARC, or The Behemoth - $100m budget be damned.

When you really lay out the companies that are hurting, it's mostly the ones that continue to hammer everything they have into these bloated, overhyped flops.

It's difficult to feel pity for an entity that is both the victim and the perpetrator.

Sorry, no tears to spare.

Investors love big projects because while the risk is high so is the potential return. Indies have carved out a good niche for themselves but the big budget behemoths aren't going away.

 

[Pooya]

Have had too much to drink tonight so i can't do it but instead of discussing dr2 sales would be nice if someone could use the new numbers to give us an updated chart. Should be able to start putting together a top 10 sku style.

I'll try

01. Halo: Reach (Microsoft, Xbox 360) - 3.3 Million
02. Madden NFL 11 (Electronic Arts, Xbox 360, PS3, PS2, Wii, PSP) - Over 477k for sure, perhaps up to 550k-600k-ish (we lack the September 2009 Wii/PS2/PSP numbers to fully calculate from)
New! 03. Dead Rising 2 (Capcom, Xbox 360, PS3, PC) - 370,000
04. NHL 11 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3)
05. FIFA Soccer 11 (EA, Xbox 360, PS3, PS2, PSP, Nintendo DS)
06. Kingdom Hearts: Birth By Sleep (Square Enix, PSP) - 225,000
07. Mafia II (Take 2 Interactive, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)
08. Spider-Man: Shattered Dimensions (Activision Blizzard, PS3, 360, NDS, Wii)
09. Metroid: Other M (Nintendo, Wii) - 173,000
10. Call Of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (Activision Blizzard, Xbox 360, PS3, PC)

Outside of Top 10:
Guitar Hero: Warriors of Rock (All Platforms) - 86,000 [This means all Top 10 titles >86k]

NSMWii is said to be in top 10 according to Frazier.

Frazier helpfully noted that if the top 10 were ranked by SKU, New Super Mario Bros. Wii would have cracked the top 10, as usual.

so I think

1. [360] Halo Reach 3.3m
2. [360] Madden NFL 11
3. [PS3] Madden NFL 11
4. [360] Dead Rising 2
5. [PSP] Kingdom Hearts Birth By Sleep 225k
6. [Wii] Metroid Other M 173k
7. [360] NHL 11
8. [360] FIFA 11
9. [PS3] Dead Rising 2
10.[Wii] New Super Mario Wii ( <100k last month)
11. <---- one of Mafia II SKUs should be here considering it sold between 173k and 225. I don't know about DR2 PS3, I think it's possible that it's not even in top 10 and Mafia II is there instead.

 

[AniHawk]

Appreciate the data, EviLore, thanks.

 

[_Alkaline_]

Other M will struggle to make a million about this point. It's probably at about 500K worldwide (if that) but it's a very front-loaded franchise due to its hardcore audience.

Very unfortunate.

 

[legend166]

I keep reading this sentiment, but it almost seems backwards to me.

From niche markets, to the indie scene, to Steam sales, to classic re-releases - 2D resurrection, strategy RPGs, fighting revivals, and vertical SHMUPS - I'd say most of the small fries and castaways are stable or in growth.

I mean, I can't remember the last time I heard a whine out of Atlus, Cave, ARC, or The Behemoth - $100m budget be damned.

When you really lay out the companies that are hurting, it's mostly the ones that continue to hammer everything they have into these bloated, overhyped flops.

It's difficult to feel pity for an entity that is both the victim and the perpetrator.

Sorry, no tears to spare.

The problem is the middle of the market has been cut out. Like you said, the low end is fine. And for those lucky enough to have blockbuster franchises, they aren't going too bad. But the middle, which was the lynchpin of the industry last generation, is becoming nonexistent as people either chase the big bucks of the Halo's and Call of Duty's or get pushed aside to small print runs or the downloadable services.

Now, I'm only talking about consoles here, not the PC market.

 

[CrunchinJelly]

So Capcom's new IPs are dead after just one sequel.

Dead Rising and Lost Planet... We hardly knew ye.

 

[Magicpaint]

Didn't Other M pretty much have the entire month to sell? Not very good numbers. Seems to have underperformed everywhere. It will be very interesting to see where the series goes from here.

Decent BbS numbers; could be a lot better but this is PSP so it's not the disaster most of us expected.

 

[Massa]

So Capcom's new IPs are dead after just one sequel.

Dead Rising and Lost Planet... We hardly knew ye.

What? Dead Rising 2 sold great and a lot better than Lost Planet 2.

 

[Pureauthor]

The problem is the middle of the market has been cut out. Like you said, the low end is fine. And for those lucky enough to have blockbuster franchises, they aren't going too bad. But the middle, which was the lynchpin of the industry last generation, is becoming nonexistent as people either chase the big bucks of the Halo's and Call of Duty's or get pushed aside to small print runs or the downloadable services.

Now, I'm only talking about consoles here, not the PC market.

I think a lot of mid end development (insofar as Japan is concerned) just moved to handhelds.

 

[Zertez]

I wouldnt say DR2 is in bad shape yet. IIRC DR1 was a slow burn as well. It did not sell great at first. It took a year plus to sell over a million copies.

 

[Nirolak]

I think a lot of mid end development (insofar as Japan is concerned) just moved to handhelds.

Hell, even a lot of the high end development moved to handhelds.

In the U.S. however, there's no core game market on the DS or PSP, so they have a really large problem in that regard.

 

[legend166]

I wouldnt say DR2 is in bad shape yet. IIRC DR1 was a slow burn as well. It did not sell great at first. It took a year plus to sell over a million copies.

That doesn't mean the sequel will be a slow burn. The series has an inbuilt audience this time around so it's much more likely to be front loaded.

 

[TheKaeptain]

True because FFXIII was very crap.

 

[szaromir]

It's amazing how well Capcom started this generation, only to see all the missteps they did in the last 18 months.

 

[AniHawk]

1. [360] Halo Reach 3.3m
2. [360] Madden NFL 11
3. [PS3] Madden NFL 11
4. [360] Dead Rising 2
5. [PSP] Kingdom Hearts Birth By Sleep 225k
6. [Wii] Metroid Other M 173k
7. [360] NHL 11
8. [360] FIFA 11
9. [PS3] Dead Rising 2
10.[Wii] New Super Mario Wii ( <100k last month)
11. <---- one of Mafia II SKUs should be here considering it sold between 173k and 225. I don't know about DR2 PS3, I think it's possible that it's not even in top 10 and Mafia II is there instead.

360 software sale tend to be at or around twice as much as the PS3 version. Also, 360 is the only system that has/had a DR audience. Going from that, DR2 360 could likely be around 245k-260k, and the PS3 version is around 110k-125k. It would certainly match with what you have on your chart.

 

[KingDizzi]

I continue to be amazed at just how big the COD brand is, the Reach numbers pale in comparison to MW2 on just the 360! Of course Reach sold a fuck ton of copies however fact of the matter is that COD has far passed Halo on just the 360. It's easily the biggest franchise on HD consoles and the frightening thought is that Black Ops has more pre-orders than MW2 so it's not even peaked yet! Beast of a franchise, needless to say the biggest franchise on the 360 and PS3, taking a shit on GTA, GT, Halo etc.

 

[Zertez]

That doesn't mean the sequel will be a slow burn. The series has an inbuilt audience this time around so it's much more likely to be front loaded.

Only time will tell. It has already sold close to 400k and it did not have a full month. I dont think sales will take a nose dive like a lot of other titles. Guess we will have to wait and see. I could see it selling 1.5 million by next summer.

 

[TheKaeptain]

I would put money on FIFA PS3 and 360 selling about even

 

[szaromir]

I would put money on FIFA PS3 and 360 selling about even

Inlikely. Since FIFA is on the rise in the US, it should sell proportionally to the consoles' (active) userbases. There'sno legacy related to the franchise like there is in Europe.

 

[Branduil]

Hell, even a lot of the high end development moved to handhelds.

In the U.S. however, there's no core game market on the DS or PSP, so they have a really large problem in that regard.

In 3DS we trust.

 

[Pooya]

360 software sale tend to be at or around twice as much as the PS3 version. Also, 360 is the only system that has/had a DR audience. Going from that, DR2 360 could likely be around 245k-260k, and the PS3 version is around 110k-125k. It would certainly match with what you have on your chart.

sales split in UK charts were 2:1 for first 3 weeks so I thought it's a good reference to use it here too

W1: 63-36
W2: 59-38
W3: 60-38

so it's quite likely that numbers should be around that here too which I think is in line with the ranking in my chart. NHL10 360 was between 194k and 134k last year (probably closer to 194k than 134k) in September 2009 and FIFA10 360 was 156k in October 2009 so I think if these sports games remained flat and seeing how NHL on two platforms outsold FIFA on 4-5 platforms, 360 version of NHL probably outsold FIFA 360 too, that's how I sorted them.
I think we agree here .

I don't know about 2-4 positions, it could be anything, say DR2 outsold both SKUs of Madden or maybe PS3 version of Madden and it can be #3, well, it's even possible Madden PS3 is higher than 360 going by last month and how close they were, we will never know.

Madden NFL 10 numbers in September 2009 were:

Madden NFL 10 (360) 289,600
Madden NFL 10 (PS3) 246,500

NHL11 can be above Metroid too, overall I think top 10 games must be those but positions can slightly change in the real thing.

 

[Metal Gear?!]

In 3DS we trust.

If the handhelds just increase in power at their current rate won't they just run into the same problem soon enough?

Other M will struggle to make a million about this point. It's probably at about 500K worldwide (if that) but it's a very front-loaded franchise due to its hardcore audience.

Very unfortunate.

Do you think there is the possibility that Other M sold what it deserved?

 

[NHale]

Inlikely. Since FIFA is on the rise in the US, it should sell proportionally to the consoles' (active) userbases. There'sno legacy related to the franchise like there is in Europe.

Then why did Madden NFL 11 sold almost the same in both consoles? August 2010: X360 - 920.8K vs. PS3 - 893.6K. By your logic it should have sold a ton more copies on the 360 than on the PS3...

 

[tzare]

In 3DS we trust.

not sure with only one analog stick.

 

[timetokill]

not sure with only one analog stick.

Touch pad works really well for almost all second-stick functions I've seen.

Seriously, the one stick+touch will be enough for almost anything you can imagine.

 

[sciplore]

Kingdom hearts manage to beat my expectations. I was thinking it would only break 180k let alone 200k. Considering how well done the title is, the sales are sort of dissappointing. Then again it is a psp game. Tough spot to call honestly it certainly deserve better sales but it might squeeze out another 50k-80k this month and december. I do however believe that none of the future SE psp titles will ever perform this well again.

 

[tzare]

Touch pad works really well for almost all second-stick functions I've seen.

Seriously, the one stick+touch will be enough for almost anything you can imagine.

i disagree, but hopefully i will be wrong

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

The problem is the middle of the market has been cut out. Like you said, the low end is fine. And for those lucky enough to have blockbuster franchises, they aren't going too bad. But the middle, which was the lynchpin of the industry last generation, is becoming nonexistent as people either chase the big bucks of the Halo's and Call of Duty's or get pushed aside to small print runs or the downloadable services.

Now, I'm only talking about consoles here, not the PC market.

Any ideas on what exactly caused this condition? Why have we gotten to the point of just one big major title a month?

 

[_Alkaline_]

Do you think there is the possibility that Other M sold what it deserved?

That's subjective.

Personally I thought it was a great game that finally brought the old gameplay back to the franchise but in 3D, but fell short of matching the brilliance of series' best efforts. It did however lay the foundations for what could be a seriously impressive sequel - Samus' movement is so much better than it was in the Prime series, and that alone makes Other M worth playing.

Metroid has never been a big series sales-wise, even Super and Prime didn't sell gangbusters (Prime being the best at a bit over 2 million, though some of that was bundled) and Other M will probably still end up besting Zero Mission and maybe Echoes. But there's no doubt it's disappointing, since this was intended to bring in new people to the series and the advertising this time around was pretty comprehensive.

 

[Haunted]

Then why did Madden NFL 11 sold almost the same in both consoles? August 2010: X360 - 920.8K vs. PS3 - 893.6K. By your logic it should have sold a ton more copies on the 360 than on the PS3...

Because there's a legacy for Madden, selling the most on PS2 last generation (like FIFA did in Europe). The last sentence you didn't bold is key.


Not saying I agree, but that's his argument.

 

[brain_stew]

I agree with this.


But at the same time, I also think it's a pretty good opportunity for Nintendo. I still think they are in the best position to launch a successor.

If they pull of a successful Wii 2 launch you completely hurt the momentum of the 360 and PS3, as well as getting a good headstart on the successors.

They are currently but that window of opportunity will close. Sony and Microsoft simply can't launch new hardware until 2013, so by launching in 2011 or early 2012 they can get the jump on both of them and cash in on the Wii brand as well. Leave it until late 2012 or sometime in 2013 and the Wii brand will have suffered a couple years in third place so mindshare will be down and their competitors will be able to make a quick counter. Launch in a years time and they'll have over a year to builf up a significant userbase and since the Wii brand will still hold a lot of consumer mindshare, that should be easy enough.

They could easily have a 20m+ installed base before Sony and Microsoft launch their competing products. That's a pretty strong proposition to turn down considering the Wii has been suffering downward momentum for such a long time now.

Be clear, I'm not suggesting a 2011 launch is needed "out of desperation" more because it presents them with a unique window of opportunity which they'd be foolish to not take advantage of.

 

[Flakster99]

Must be your first NPD thread, they all end up like this numbers or no.

No. Been here for 10+ years now. And my post was in relation to a lack of NPD information, which was abundant for many years, leading to bullshit assumptions and a greater number of armchair analists, from all sides.

Here within, less information has absolutely created a breading ground for the absurd, way more than usual, imo.

Btw, appreciate the updates EviLore.

 

[Jonsoncao]

Then why did Madden NFL 11 sold almost the same in both consoles? August 2010: X360 - 920.8K vs. PS3 - 893.6K. By your logic it should have sold a ton more copies on the 360 than on the PS3...

because EA branded Madden 11 as a PS3 exclusive during NFL games

 

[brain_stew]

Errr... if Nintendo were going to release a new console, why would it only have PS360 level graphics?

It won't. They can release a box in late 2011 that can be sold at a profit at $299 and comfortably surpass the graphics in 360 games with a minimal R & D investment. It'll get excellent third party support by default because moving over PS3 and 360 titles will be incredibly cheap. If the 3DS is convincing publishers to commission high profile and exclusive core content then the Wii 2 will be able to convince them to crap out a cheap port, its basically free cash.

So all the titles that are really driving the PS3 and 360 will be available on Nintendo's system, only in 1080p, with better textures, better performance and full tessellation support. Add to that Nintendo's first party content and the best motion controls in the industry (they should be able to surpass Move by then, they've obviously invested in the technology) and you've got more than enough to hit a comfortable 20m userbase before the PS4 and Xbox3 are even on the market. They can worry about the expanded audience from there.

 

[brain_stew]

Either way, it's a shame. But I guess greatness isn't always recognized.

Capcom could have done a better job advertising it, but I gotta give em credit for taking in Blue Castle and making them Capcom Vancouver.

honestly I just wanna separate the 360 numbers since they're probably the majority so at least we can put a solid number on it, no matter how depressing it is.

That didn't have to be the case though. Capcom completely botched Dead Rising 2 on the PS3 and PC. No port of the original game (a cheap port of DR1 sold for $20 on Steam and PSN could have created huge interest and made decent bank), no Case Zero, no demo and exclusive 360 DLC content announced before release. What utter stupidity, the franchise never had a chance on either format, Capcom only have themselves to blame.

Once you consider they were launching within a week of the biggest 360 title of the year and had a relatively clean slate on the PS3 and PC it makes it even more dumbfounding and stupid.

Moving 254,000 Units after all this time is still good, not impressive but still good.

Its the most dramatic and swift fall from grace we've ever seen in the console market. Its bad. Its not about the absolute number but the distance its fell, especially when its compared to two competing products that are in the ascendency and its part of a much bigger trend. Do you believe they'd be selling ~250k units of Wii hardware this time next year? If it keeps on the same downward track (and everything suggests it will) then the Wii will be below 150k in September 2011 and that's just not good enough, especially when both your competitors are selling more than 2x as much as that.