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[cvxfreak]

I think Monster Hunter 3 now has a 50% chance of selling 1 Million units. The vibe I'm getting from the MH fanbase here in Japan is that they're dedicated. I don't think they'd mind buying a Wii system for it. Certainly, once Monster Hunter 3 hits budget pricing however many months from now, the chances go way up again.

I don't expect all that much from the G port, but we might be surprised. I don't expect more than 200K for that port. I do expect Monster Hunter 2 to make it over eventually, to complete the series. It might even be after 3.

 

[jeremy1456]

I think Monster Hunter 3 now has a 50% chance of selling 1 Million units. The vibe I'm getting from the MH fanbase here in Japan is that they're dedicated. I don't think they'd mind buying a Wii system for it. Certainly, once Monster Hunter 3 hits budget pricing however many months from now, the chances go way up again.

I don't expect all that much from the G port, but we might be surprised. I don't expect more than 200K for that port. I do expect Monster Hunter 2 to make it over eventually, to complete the series. It might even be after 3.

Only 50%?

 

[cvxfreak]

Only 50%?

I'm personally using Animal Crossing as a guide to see how it could do. The only problem with City Folk is that I hear it's just way too similar to previous games. I'm sure MH3 does qualify more as a sequel than an upgrade.

 

[AranhaHunter]

I'm guessing 1.5 million for MH3 Wii unless Capcom announces MHP3 before it releases or something like that.

 

[MarzipaNMOS]

Yep, that was my point. 2nd quarter lineup has more potential thanks to MHG but outside of that game, the potential sales of both quarters lineups are not that different.
Until Wii Sports 2, of course.

:/

Who's talking about PS3 here?

I've made that list to prove my point (Wii also had a consistent lineup in the 1st quarter compared to the 2nd quarter) to schuelma.

ah, I originally misunderstood schuelma's post. when he referred to a slate of heavy hitters earlier the first thing that came to mind was PS3 so i automatically assumed he was comparing wii's second quarter to it as well. :x

 

[donny2112]

Famitsu Mar 23-29

01./00. [PSP] Kidou Senshi Gundam: Senjou no Kizuna Portable (Namco Bandai Games) - 84,933 / NEW
02./01. [NDS] Super Robot Taisen K (Namco Bandai Games) - 37,909 / 169,547 (-71%)
03./00. [NDS] Yu-Gi-Oh 5D's: Stardust Accelerator World Championship 2009 (Konami) - 36,491 / NEW
04./00. [PSP] Disgaea 2 Portable (Nippon Ichi Software) - 35,319 / NEW
05./05. [NDS] Mario & Luigi RPG 3!!! (Nintendo) - 29,997 / 467,891 (+2%)
06./06. [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2 G (BEST) (Capcom) - 29,979 / 555,422 (+2%)
07./03. [PS2] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2009 (#15) (Konami) - 28,706 / 72,842 (-35%)
08./04. [PS3] Musou Orochi Z (Koei) - 20,845 / 161,259 (-42%)
09./08. [NDS] Rittai Picross (3D) (Nintendo) - 18,480 / 81,847 (-28%)
10./07. [PS3] Resident Evil 5 (Capcom) - 16,018 / 428,545 (-44%)

11./00. [NDS] Metal Fight Beyblade (Hudson) - 15,079 / NEW
12./13. [WII] Wii Fit (Nintendo) - 13,942 / 3,268,906 (-18%)
13./20. [NDS] Rhythm Tengoku Gold (Nintendo) - 13,551 / 1,651,424 (+9%)
14./00. [PS2] Vitamin Z (D3 Publisher) - 12,568 / NEW
15./21. [WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii (Namco Bandai Games) - 11,853 / 471,733 (-1%)
16./00. [PSP] Hayate no Gotoku! Nightmare Paradise (Konami) - 11,754 / NEW
17./00. [PSP] Sunday VS Magazine Shuuketsu! Choujou Daikessen (Konami) - 10,821 / NEW
18./17. [WII] Play on Wii: Pikmin 2 (Nintendo) - 10,427 / 53,537 (-30%)
19./11. [WII] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball Next (Konami) - 10,409 / 28,953 (-44%)
20./00. [WII] Haruhi Suzumiya no Heiretsu (The Parallel of Haruhi Suzumiya) (SEGA) - 10,330 / NEW
21./02. [PS2] Amagami (Enterbrain) - 10,197 / 57,959 (-79%)
22./12. [PSP] Shin Sangoku Musou: Multi Raid (Koei) - 10,118 / 355,784 (-42%)
23./29. [NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 11 (Konami) - 9,703 / 203,289 (+39%)
24./09. [PSP] Harvest Moon: Sugar Village and Everyone's Request (Marvelous) - 9,693 / 30,087 (-52%)
25./27. [NDS] Tongari Boushi to Mahou no 365 Nichi (Little Magician's Magic Adventure) (Konami) - 9,676 / 335,323 (+37%)
26./00. [PS2] Trigger Heart Exelica Enhanced (Alchemist) - 9,428 / NEW
27./26. [NDS] Wagamama Fashion: Girls Mode (Nintendo) - 8,551 / 792,588 (+15%)
28./18. [NDS] Crayon Shin-chan: Arashi wo Yobu Nendororon Daihenshin! (Namco Bandai Games) - 8,241 / 22,105 (-41%)
29./24. [WII] Mario Kart Wii (Nintendo) - 7,891 / 2,203,430 (-6%)
30./19. [PS3] Yakuza 3 (SEGA) - 7,741 / 459,786 (-40%)

*. [WII] Yu-Gi-Oh 5D's: Wheelie Breakers (Konami) - 7,700 / NEW
*. [NDS] 7th Dragon (SEGA) - 6,915 / 115,485
*. [NDS] Prince of Tennis: Prince of Doubles: Boys, Be Glorious! (Konami) - 5,900 / NEW
*. [PS3] James Bond 007: Quantum of Solace (Square Enix) - 5,600 / NEW
*. [NDS] Nintama Rantarou: Nintama no Tame no Ninjutsu Training (Rantaro the Ninja Boy) (Russel) - 2,500 / NEW
*. [360] James Bond 007: Quantum of Solace (Square Enix) - 2,300 / NEW
*. [NDS] Akai Ito Destiny DS (Alchemist) - 2,100 / NEW
*. [NDS] Space Invaders Extreme 2 (Taito) - 2,100 / NEW
*. [PSP] Sengoku Tenka Touitsu (SystemSoft Alpha) - 2,100 / NEW
*. [NDS] Gaitame Baibai Trainer: Kabutore FX (Stock Training) (Konami) - 1,900 / NEW
*. [PSP] Will O' Wisp Portable (Idea Factory) - 1,800 / NEW
*. [PS2] Sengoku Tenka Touitsu (SystemSoft Alpha) - 1,600 / NEW
*. [PS3] NBA 2K9 (Spike) - 1,600 / NEW
*. [NDS] Hachi-One Diver (81 diver) (Electronic Arts Victor) - 1,400 / NEW
*. [NDS] Keitai Sousakan 7 DS: Buddy Sequence (Mobile Investigators 7 DS) (5pb) - 1,400 / NEW
*. [NDS] Will O' Wisp DS (Idea Factory) - 1,100 / NEW
*. [PS2] James Bond 007: Quantum of Solace (Square Enix) - 1,100 / NEW
*. [WII] James Bond 007: Quantum of Solace (Square Enix) - 1,100 / NEW
*. [PS3] Mahjong Fight Club: Zenkoku Taisenban (BEST) (Konami) - 1,000 / NEW
*. [PS2] Slotter Up Core 11: Kyoujin no Hoshi IV (Star of the Giants IV) (Dorart) - 800 / NEW
*. [NDS] Toudou Ryuunosuke Tantei Nikki: Aen no Koufune (Ryuunosuke Detective Diary: Soma House Murder) (fonfun) - 700 / NEW


Bar Chart Mar 23-29 (thanks to JoshuaJSlone/garaph.info)

Note: Image may be delayed from the time of this post, but will automatically show once the data is ready.


Misc. LTD Updates
[360] Last Remnant (Square Enix) - 148,739
[360] Resident Evil 5 (Capcom) - 101,874
[NDS] Avalon Code (Marvelous) - 66,207
[NDS] Bokura wa Kaseki Holder (We are Fossil Diggers) (Nintendo) - 252,085
[NDS] Brain Training 2 (Nintendo) - 5,000,391
[NDS] Inazuma Eleven (Level 5) - 308,017
[NDS] Nanashi no Game (The Game with no Name) (Square Enix) - 61,927
[NDS] Pokemon Platinum (Nintendo/Pokemon Co.) - 2,372,336
[NDS] Saihai no Yukue (Koei) - 34,644
[NDS] Sigma Harmonics (Square Enix) - 62,480
[NDS] World Destruction: Michibi Kareshi Ishi (SEGA) - 93,104
[PS3] Afrika (SCEI) - 69,976
[PS3] Demon's Souls (SCEI) - 93,274
[PS3] Little Big Planet (SCEI) - 111,160
[PS3] White Knight Chronicles (SCEI) - 326,239
[WII] 428: Fuusa Sareta Shibuya de (SEGA) - 64,189
[WII] Wii Music (Nintendo) - 383,076


Recent Famitsu Top 30s

Feb 23-Mar 1, 2009
Mar 2-8, 2009
Mar 9-15, 2009
Mar 16-22, 2009

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

Monster Hunter has never sold nearly as much on consoles as they did on handhelds. I mean the PS2 versions didn't reach a million. Then again this game is being pushed in North America and Europe so in a world-wide basis I wouldn't say that it's impossible.

[NDS] Inazuma Eleven (Level 5) - 308,017

Damn!

 

[Tenbatsu]

I think Monster Hunter 3 now has a 50% chance of selling 1 Million units. The vibe I'm getting from the MH fanbase here in Japan is that they're dedicated. I don't think they'd mind buying a Wii system for it.

You know me well:lol

Capcom/Nintendo please release a limited edition Wii console for MH3 Tri!

 

[cvxfreak]

Monster Hunter has never sold nearly as much on consoles as they did on handhelds. I mean the PS2 versions didn't reach a million. Then again this game is being pushed in North America and Europe so in a world-wide basis I wouldn't say that it's impossible.



Damn!

Monster Hunter's popularity has greatly increased even from a year ago. While Monster Hunter 2nd's sales were very, very high, assuming everyone who owned a copy of 2nd (and thus a copy of the first Portable) opted for a copy of 2nd G, nearly half of the MH fanbase is post mid-2008.

 

[t3nmilez]

Wow, Little Big Planet slowly working its way up.

 

[jeremy1456]

Does anyone know when Samurai Warriors 3 is supposed to drop? Probably Winter 2009?

 

[AdventureRacing]

[NDS] Brain Training 2 (Nintendo) - 5,000,391

Holy shit:lol .

This reminds me what is everyone expecting from DQIX? Will it come close to being the top selling DS game? I'm not really sure what to expect.

 

[BishopLamont]

There's no doubt DQIX will be one of the DS' top selling game. I think Enterbrain predicted 5M+ at one stage. The best seller isn't an impossibility.

 

[HK-47]

There's no doubt DQIX will be one of the DS' top selling game. I think Enterbrain predicted 5M+ at one stage. The best seller isn't an impossibility.

Oh I think there is some doubt.

 

[BishopLamont]

Oh I think there is some doubt.

for it to be the best seller, yes. One of the best sellers? No doubt.

JJS' database shows DQVIII at 3M+, this doesn't include re-releases or something? I swear it was in the 4-5M territory last time I checked.

 

[AniHawk]

I'm guessing 1.5 million for MH3 Wii unless Capcom announces MHP3 before it releases or something like that.

I'm guessing 300k max.

EDIT: And what is it with Pikmin 2 selling less than Pikmin 1? This is the second time it's happened.

 

[BishopLamont]

MH3 should do at least 500k, I don't see why it would decline, especially after the popularity boost.

 

[Dante]

Will these games even be out this year?...

I don't know but honestly it's high time They started cracking the whip on GT5's dev team, Team Ico already has autonomy as far as scheduling goes. GT5 is getting into the realm of ridiculous.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

MH3 should do 3m+

 

[BishopLamont]

MH3 should do 3m+

That's quite a bold prediction. You don't mean MHP3 by any chance?

 

[spwolf]

Wow, Little Big Planet slowly working its way up.

sure is

 

[Brofist]

MH3 should do 3m+

No chance unless you are including the inevitable rereleases
and PSP version.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

That's quite a bold prediction. You don't mean MHP3 by any chance?

Not a prediction, just an opinion on how much it should do. MHP3 should do 4m+. The franchise could also stop growing and/or be handicapped to platforms where their full potential can't be achieved but I'm not taking those scenarios into what the games should sell.

 

[Spiegel]

Let's not forget Monster Hunter Portable 2G is an expansion of Monster Hunter Portable 2, a game that sold 1.75 million.

I don't think 1.75 million of people rebought the game so I agree with Kurosaki, MHP3 should do 4 million+. But the grade of success/failure of the Wii version is going to affect the potential sales of the (unannounced) psp version

 

[gogogow]

Let's not forget what made the PSP versions so popular.
Free 4P multiplayer, adhoc. AFAIK the Wii version only has 2 player splitscreen mode.

We shall see how many people are willing to pay to play 4P multiplayer.

Since 2G is an "add-on" which you can't get separate, I actually do think that loads of people re-bought it.

 

[Acosta]

Not a prediction, just an opinion on how much it should do. MHP3 should do 4m+. The franchise could also stop growing and/or be handicapped to platforms where their full potential can't be achieved but I'm not taking those scenarios into what the games should sell.

When you say "handicapped to platforms where their full potential can´t be achieved" I guess you are talking for Wii, right?

It´s amusing how many of you forget how Monster Hunter achieved it´s popularity boost.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

When you say "handicapped to platforms where their full potential can´t be achieved" I guess you are talking for Wii, right?

It´s amusing how many of you forget how Monster Hunter achieved it´s popularity boost.

When I say "handicapped to platforms where their full potential can´t be achieved" I am talking for platforms where MH full potential can't be achieved. Don't try reading into my posts to hear what you want to hear.

Its more amusing how you all actually agree on that but rather than saying it out loud you just put ridiculously low goals to spin it into good news. I'm sure this thread would also be so kind if DQIX was released on 360 and people said doing 300k would be good. Yeah, for sure.

 

[SecretBonusPoint]

Monster Hunter 3 should frankly be the end-all litmus test for traditional devs in Japan on whether Wii development is worth it. Aside from the fact it wont do Portable numbers, if it doesnt even succeed moderately despite it essentially now being Capcom's biggest local property, then theres just no hope for anything else unless its from Square Enix.

 

[Jokeropia]

Well, it all depends on just how dedicated the Monster Hunter fans are. They do seem pretty dedicated, but not to the degree that they'll all buy a console version as well.

 

[Acosta]

When I say "handicapped to platforms where their full potential can´t be achieved" I am talking for platforms where MH full potential can't be achieved. Don't try reading into my posts to hear what you want to hear.

Its more amusing how you all actually agree on that but rather than saying it out loud you just put ridiculously low goals to spin it into good news. I'm sure this thread would also be so kind if DQIX was released on 360 and people said doing 300k would be good. Yeah, for sure.

Please, say what platforms are these ones so we can properly discuss it. So far, I just read what I read, that the series won't achieve it´s full potential on PSP and needs something better, am I reading it right?

No need to fabricate situations that don't exist to make an argument, we can focus on the actual issue we are discussing. The ones making less optimistic predictions for Tri do it for a reason explained many times: the belief that the free 4p mechanic on a portable device is what gave Monster Hunter the popularity it has. Will it translate to Wii (or any not portable system)? probably, but not completely, because the conditions are quite different.

I think it will be a big success it it pass the million. But whatever the numbers are, it will be easily surpassed by the next big MH on PSP. Saying that the Wii version should sell 3 mill is not a serious analysis at all.

 

[schuelma]

I think Monster Hunter will do above 500K and should probably get close to, or hit a million- as others have said, the series didn't really explode in popularity until after MH 2 on PS2 was out. I think its perfectly reasonable to expect a decent % of those who are now playing it on PSP to get it on Wii if for no other reason than to play more Monster Hunter.

On the other hand, I don't think you can just ignore that its huge popularity happened on a portable and I think its fair to question the affect that will have on its sales.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Please, say what platforms are these ones so we can properly discuss it. So far, I just read what I read, that the series won't achieve it´s full potential on PSP and needs something better, am I reading it right?

No need to fabricate situations that don't exist to make an argument, we can focus on the actual issue we are discussing. The ones making less optimistic predictions for Tri do it for a reason explained many times: the belief that the free 4p mechanic on a portable device is what gave Monster Hunter the popularity it has. Will it translate to Wii (or any not portable system)? probably, but not completely, because the conditions are quite different.

I think it will be a big success it it pass the million. But whatever the numbers are, it will be easily surpassed by the next big MH on PSP. Saying that the Wii version should sell 3 mill is not a serious analysis at all.

I'm not naming any particular platform because I want the same statement to hold for different platforms and different games. Take FFXIII, saying that since its on PS3 selling 750k would be good is admitting the platform is handicapping the game, because FFXIII should sell 2m+. Star Ocean 4 should sell 500k+ but since its on 360 its good that it did 200k? I believe its the same holds for MH3 on the Wii, MH3 should at least come close matching what the franchise can do. 300-500k is not what it can do, and yes, I know that its the games on the PSP that expanded its audience, but at the same time there's nothing saying it discards all of them for a non-portable one. Monster Hunter 2 on PS2 came out after the original ported to PSP expanded its audience, MH2 also had pay to play, it lacked local multiplayer that MH3 will have, it was also released at full price and it still did a three times better first week than any MH before, and it improved more than twice over what any of the previous PS2 games sold, it came as close as 12k as to where the portable game was doing while surpassing where it was before MH2 launched. It didn't grew the audience, it didn't continue to sell for two years, but it did one really nice job at capturing most of the audience the series had gathered on PSP.

My analysis isn't that the Wii game must sell 3m or bust but that MH3 is one of the strongest upcoming games in Japan, and sitting on 300-500k goals isn't what this game should do. There's still quite a lack of information about its release, thus why I'm not going to predict how much it'll sell but the aim should be getting the biggest chunk of players from the portable editions as possible, which can be more or less but not sitting on a fence calling it dead on the water already, because that only means you think Capcom shouldn't have bothered at all with this and should have gone straight to portable. In my honest opinion, Monster Hunter 3 just like Resident Evil 5, Dragon Quest X, Yakuza 3, Final Fantasy XIII, Tales of Graces and such have the responsibility to prove there's still a market outside portables in Japan. (And I love my portables, just in case).

 

[schuelma]

My analysis isn't that the Wii game must sell 3m or bust but that MH3 is one of the strongest upcoming games in Japan, and sitting on 300-500k goals isn't what this game should do. There's still quite a lack of information about its release, thus why I'm not going to predict how much it'll sell but the aim should be getting the biggest chunk of players from the portable editions as possible, which can be more or less but not sitting on a fence calling it dead on the water already, because that only means you think Capcom shouldn't have bothered at all with this and should have gone straight to portable. In my honest opinion, Monster Hunter 3 just like Resident Evil 5, Dragon Quest X, Yakuza 3, Final Fantasy XIII, Tales of Graces and such have the responsibility to prove there's still a market outside portables in Japan. (And I love my portables, just in case).

Agree completely. Capcom clearly wants it to do much more than 500K, calling it an important game for the industry, wanting to make it as big as Dragon Quest, etc. 500K would incredibly disappointing.

 

[Defuser]

When is MH3 release date again?It would funny if Capcom decides to pit it against FFXIII.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Based on the latest Famitsu hardware numbers...
PSP comparisons: After 225 weeks, PSP is where PS2 was at 178.2 weeks (July 28, 2003), where DS was at 99.2 weeks (October 24, 2006), and where GBA was at 152.0 weeks (February 15, 2004).

X360 comparisons: After 173 weeks, X360 is where GCN was at 16.5 weeks (January 3, 2002), where PS3 was at 35.3 weeks (July 10, 2007), and where Wii was at 5.1 weeks (January 1, 2007).

PS3 comparisons: After 125 weeks, PS3 is where PS2 was at 42.1 weeks (December 18, 2000), where PSP was at 63.7 weeks (February 24, 2006), where GCN was at 120.2 weeks (December 30, 2003), and where Wii was at 32.9 weeks (July 15, 2007).

Wii comparisons: After 122 weeks, Wii is where GBA was at 94.7 weeks (January 10, 2003), where DS was at 76.2 weeks (May 15, 2006), where PS2 was at 113.6 weeks (May 2, 2002), and where PSP was at 164.4 weeks (January 30, 2008).

DSi comparisons: After 22 weeks, DSi is where GBASP was at 43.7 weeks (December 12, 2003) and where DSL was at 13.4 weeks (May 31, 2006).

Based on the latest Media Create hardware numbers...
DS vs PSP: Weekly shares of 56.5 / 43.5 bring total shares to 68.5 / 31.5. If DS stopped selling and PSP continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 294.0 weeks (November 24, 2014).

X360 vs PS3: Weekly shares of 27.7 / 72.3 bring total shares to 24.7 / 75.3. If PS3 stopped selling and X360 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 257.2 weeks (March 11, 2014).

PS3 vs Wii: Weekly shares of 56.7 / 43.3 bring total shares to 27.5 / 72.5. This is the first time PS3 has outsold Wii six weeks in a row. At this week's rates PS3 catches up to Wii in 1011.6 weeks (August 25, 2028). If Wii stopped selling and PS3 continued at this week's rate, it would catch up in 240.3 weeks (November 13, 2013).

Week over week, there's not much consistency in direction of change, but it's usually pretty slight. Other than X360, everything is within about 10% of its previous number.

Through the first fourteen weeks of the year, almost everything is down by some degree. Here's how the year-to-date year-over-year percents stand as of now.

Wii: -63.2%
DSL+DSi: -3.2%
PS2: -54.2%
PS3: +3.0%
PSP: -39.2%
X360: +214.1%

Home hardware: -40.2%
Portable hardware: -22.1%
Sum of all hardware: -29.7%

Yeah I know, but it still had the Final Fantasy name on it. Even complete crap usually sells well as long as it's got that name recognition.

Ehh, never a guarantee. The first Chocobo Tales on DS hit 140K. The second never made a Top 30 list.

EDIT: And what is it with Pikmin 2 selling less than Pikmin 1? This is the second time it's happened.

The buyers got lost underground.

But seriously, at least in the case of Wii versions I'd say coming so soon after the original and missing the holiday rush has more to do with it than being any real indication of preference.

Take FFXIII, saying that since its on PS3 selling 750k would be good is admitting the platform is handicapping the game, because FFXIII should sell 2m+.

Ehh, I don't know about should. It would only take an FF X to FF XII size drop for it to be right on the border of 2 million anyway.

 

[schuelma]

When is MH3 release date again?It would funny if Capcom decides to pit it against FFXIII.

Just Summer for now. I have a feeling we might get a release date soon after MHG hits (4/23). I'm betting Capcom wants to sucker as many as possible into getting the demo before they announce the date :lol

 

[Dascu]

Just Summer for now. I have a feeling we might get a release date soon after MHG hits (4/23). I'm betting Capcom wants to sucker as many as possible into getting the demo before they announce the date :lol

MH2 Wii with another demo this Summer. MHG+MH2 Bundle this Fall. MHWii: Hunt 'til You Drop this Winter. MH3 early 2010 together with PSP release of MHP3.

 

[schuelma]

MH2 Wii with another demo this Summer. MHG+MH2 Bundle this Fall. MHWii: Hunt 'til You Drop this Winter. MH3 early 2010 together with PSP release of MHP3.

Well, I mean they already announced it as having a Summer release date.

 

[Dascu]

Well, I mean they already announced it as having a Summer release date.

Summer 2010. ;P

Seriously, MH3 can't come soon enough. I hope it doesn't get delayed any further.

 

[donny2112]

Just Summer for now.

Wii Sports Resort and MH3 hitting within 2 or 3 weeks of each other would be awesome. Needs more games, though.

 

[alba]

RGG3 Celebration Time!!!

yaay, awesome... karaoke is just too funy in this game <3

 

[Acosta]

I'm not naming any particular platform because I want the same statement to hold for different platforms and different games. Take FFXIII, saying that since its on PS3 selling 750k would be good is admitting the platform is handicapping the game, because FFXIII should sell 2m+. Star Ocean 4 should sell 500k+ but since its on 360 its good that it did 200k? I believe its the same holds for MH3 on the Wii, MH3 should at least come close matching what the franchise can do. 300-500k is not what it can do, and yes, I know that its the games on the PSP that expanded its audience, but at the same time there's nothing saying it discards all of them for a non-portable one. Monster Hunter 2 on PS2 came out after the original ported to PSP expanded its audience, MH2 also had pay to play, it lacked local multiplayer that MH3 will have, it was also released at full price and it still did a three times better first week than any MH before, and it improved more than twice over what any of the previous PS2 games sold, it came as close as 12k as to where the portable game was doing while surpassing where it was before MH2 launched. It didn't grew the audience, it didn't continue to sell for two years, but it did one really nice job at capturing most of the audience the series had gathered on PSP.

So, why we haven't seen huge legs for Monster Hunter 2? Or, better question, what do you think Tri will offer to that huge audience to convince them? Better graphics? improved controls? more Monster Hunter? Those arguments will convince the most hardcore fans of the series, but won't work on that expanded audience that bought the game to play with their friends. The truth is, Monster Hunter benefits from being played in four different terminals, and with the monthly sub, many won't be interested in the online mode.

This reminds me a lot to Pokemon and the eternal debate of why it doesn't sell as much in home systems. Sure, Nintendo refuses to let a main version happening on home systems, but then you can ask yourself why they don't want it, and the most logical answer is because they don't feel Pokemon can work the same way in a home system as it does in a portable system.

My analysis isn't that the Wii game must sell 3m or bust but that MH3 is one of the strongest upcoming games in Japan, and sitting on 300-500k goals isn't what this game should do. There's still quite a lack of information about its release, thus why I'm not going to predict how much it'll sell but the aim should be getting the biggest chunk of players from the portable editions as possible, which can be more or less but not sitting on a fence calling it dead on the water already, because that only means you think Capcom shouldn't have bothered at all with this and should have gone straight to portable. In my honest opinion, Monster Hunter 3 just like Resident Evil 5, Dragon Quest X, Yakuza 3, Final Fantasy XIII, Tales of Graces and such have the responsibility to prove there's still a market outside portables in Japan. (And I love my portables, just in case).

I must remind you that Capcom didn't plan to release Tri on Wii, Nintendo went to the market for it. Obviously, Capcom has already a kind of benefit based on that or they would have gone straight for another portable version for sure, canning the PS3 version if necessary. It´s not like Capcom has been shy to stick with something that works in the past. If they have the Wii version is because they have good reasons for it, but I don't think anyone there considers Tri is going to sell 3 millions based on the userbase of the PSP version.

About the last part, frankly, if there are still companies working in home systems is because they have a global market that's still open to their offerings. Most small and middle studios that have their main focus on Japan has moved to the portable business and it´s pretty obvious that home systems is becoming a niche market there. Sure, it will keep a hardcore public and it will get a better shape with cheaper systems and some blockbuster that offers something not possible on a portable system, but Japanese consumers are showing that they have reached a point where they feel comfortable with the type of experience they get on psp and ds, so home systems are becoming less necesary for them.

 

[BishopLamont]

I'm not naming any particular platform because I want the same statement to hold for different platforms and different games. Take FFXIII, saying that since its on PS3 selling 750k would be good is admitting the platform is handicapping the game, because FFXIII should sell 2m+. Star Ocean 4 should sell 500k+ but since its on 360 its good that it did 200k? I believe its the same holds for MH3 on the Wii, MH3 should at least come close matching what the franchise can do. 300-500k is not what it can do, and yes, I know that its the games on the PSP that expanded its audience, but at the same time there's nothing saying it discards all of them for a non-portable one. Monster Hunter 2 on PS2 came out after the original ported to PSP expanded its audience, MH2 also had pay to play, it lacked local multiplayer that MH3 will have, it was also released at full price and it still did a three times better first week than any MH before, and it improved more than twice over what any of the previous PS2 games sold, it came as close as 12k as to where the portable game was doing while surpassing where it was before MH2 launched. It didn't grew the audience, it didn't continue to sell for two years, but it did one really nice job at capturing most of the audience the series had gathered on PSP.

My analysis isn't that the Wii game must sell 3m or bust but that MH3 is one of the strongest upcoming games in Japan, and sitting on 300-500k goals isn't what this game should do. There's still quite a lack of information about its release, thus why I'm not going to predict how much it'll sell but the aim should be getting the biggest chunk of players from the portable editions as possible, which can be more or less but not sitting on a fence calling it dead on the water already, because that only means you think Capcom shouldn't have bothered at all with this and should have gone straight to portable. In my honest opinion, Monster Hunter 3 just like Resident Evil 5, Dragon Quest X, Yakuza 3, Final Fantasy XIII, Tales of Graces and such have the responsibility to prove there's still a market outside portables in Japan. (And I love my portables, just in case).

It makes more sense to compare MH3 to MH2, then to MHP. That's like comparing the Pokemon Stadiums to the handheld versions. Out of that list, only DQ and FF are the big sellers, the rest aren't even million sellers. You're confusing GAF hype and expectations with the real world market.

 

[schuelma]

It makes more sense to compare MH3 to MH2, then to MHP. That's like comparing the Pokemon Stadiums to the handheld versions. Out of that list, only DQ and FF are the big sellers, the rest aren't even million sellers. You're confusing GAF hype and expectations with the real world market.

Its been said many times, but if you look at the history of the series, the 2nd PS2 version doubled the first and that was before Monster Hunter really exploded. I think its fair to assume the incredible explosion in interest will translate to higher sales. The question is how much.

Second, we know Capcom is planning a massive push- they've been quoted as saying this game is important for the industry as a whole,etc.

Just look at last years TGS for a good idea of the hype- 4-5 hour wait during the media days.

 

[BishopLamont]

Its been said many times, but if you look at the history of the series, the 2nd PS2 version doubled the first and that was before Monster Hunter really exploded. I think its fair to assume the incredible explosion in interest will translate to higher sales. The question is how much.

Second, we know Capcom is planning a massive push- they've been quoted as saying this game is important for the industry as a whole,etc.

Just look at last years TGS for a good idea of the hype- 4-5 hour wait during the media days.

Yeah MH3 should sell more then it's predecessors since the series has grown huge these past few years. I think Capcom would be happy if it was a million seller, any less means the series isn't growing on the console side. 3 million is just expecting way too much. You're literally expecting the whole MHP fanbase to migrate to the Wii. Maybe next-gen but I don't see it happening during this one.

 

[test_account]

It makes more sense to compare MH3 to MH2, then to MHP. That's like comparing the Pokemon Stadiums to the handheld versions. Out of that list, only DQ and FF are the big sellers, the rest aren't even million sellers. You're confusing GAF hype and expectations with the real world market.

Isnt Pokemon Stadium abit different type of game compared to the handheld Pokemon games though? (unless there are some Pokemon Stadium games for the handheld that i dont know about?). Monster Hunter 3 is exactly the same type of game like the Monster Hunter games for the PSP are, at least from what i know.

 

[donny2112]

Isnt Pokemon Stadium abit different type of game compared to the handheld Pokemon games though?

See Acosta's post.

Monster Hunter 3 is exactly the same type of game like the Monster Hunter games for the PSP are, at least from what i know.

You can't take the Wii version on the train and play with three friends during the trip for free. It is not the same as the handheld versions. That portable, play anywhere, multiplayer capability is one of the main draws, to my understanding.

 

[Tideas]

wow. color me surprised at LBP. how did it get pass 100k+. It dropped off the charts so fast and never came back.

Talk about chugging along, hah.

 

[donny2112]

how did it get pass 100k+. It dropped off the charts so fast and never came back.

Last time in Top 30: 72K (mid-November)
End of 2008: 100K (specifically 99,984)
End of calendar Q1 2009: 111K

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

So, why we haven't seen huge legs for Monster Hunter 2? Or, better question, what do you think Tri will offer to that huge audience to convince them? Better graphics? improved controls? more Monster Hunter? Those arguments will convince the most hardcore fans of the series, but won't work on that expanded audience that bought the game to play with their friends. The truth is, Monster Hunter benefits from being played in four different terminals, and with the monthly sub, many won't be interested in the online mode.

This reminds me a lot to Pokemon and the eternal debate of why it doesn't sell as much in home systems. Sure, Nintendo refuses to let a main version happening on home systems, but then you can ask yourself why they don't want it, and the most logical answer is because they don't feel Pokemon can work the same way in a home system as it does in a portable system.

I don't think we can do such insightful analysis about what the users think about each MH games but anyway. MH3 will offer just what MH2 did, a brand new Monster Hunter for the established fanbase to play for the first time. I don't really know the point of this, its the portables entries that are rehashes of the consoles ones, MH3 is the brand new game. Once again, you quickly dismiss the online features and the local multiplayer. See Monster Hunter 2 again, why did they buy it then? MH3 is to MHP2 what MH2 was to MHP. Its only your opinion MH only works as a portable game, there's nothing to back up those claims, and there's proof (MH2) that it can capture the userbase without it.

How can you bring up Pokemon, really? There's no pokemon on consoles. Are we buying what you think Nintendo thinks about it to back up this discussion? Come on, call me back when Nintendo releases their brand new pokemon title with online features on the Wii and then later ports it to DS with local features. Because that's the scenario Monster Hunter is in.

I must remind you that Capcom didn't plan to release Tri on Wii, Nintendo went to the market for it. Obviously, Capcom has already a kind of benefit based on that or they would have gone straight for another portable version for sure, canning the PS3 version if necessary. It´s not like Capcom has been shy to stick with something that works in the past. If they have the Wii version is because they have good reasons for it, but I don't think anyone there considers Tri is going to sell 3 millions based on the userbase of the PSP version.

About the last part, frankly, if there are still companies working in home systems is because they have a global market that's still open to their offerings. Most small and middle studios that have their main focus on Japan has moved to the portable business and it´s pretty obvious that home systems is becoming a niche market there. Sure, it will keep a hardcore public and it will get a better shape with cheaper systems and some blockbuster that offers something not possible on a portable system, but Japanese consumers are showing that they have reached a point where they feel comfortable with the type of experience they get on psp and ds, so home systems are becoming less necesary for them.

There seems to be quite a lot of people here that think that Tri is going to sell a mere 10% of the PSP version based solely on their opinion about whats makes those games desirable to be bought. Even with proof that it wasn't the case before.

Worldwide business sure, but I doubt that has much to do with what we are discussing about MH, which is a totally japanese-centric franchise. I'm not really going to argue anything about this because it'll be going way off topic.

It makes more sense to compare MH3 to MH2, then to MHP. That's like comparing the Pokemon Stadiums to the handheld versions. Out of that list, only DQ and FF are the big sellers, the rest aren't even million sellers. You're confusing GAF hype and expectations with the real world market.

I don't understand you here. I'm comparing MH3 in relation to MHP2 and MHP2G with MH2 in relation to MHP, no MH3-MHP comparison. The 'list' isn't about how much they sell but about how much they can sell nowadays compared to what they sold before, there's no point about how big they are overall but how they are transitioning between generations.