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[farnham]

Next week releases (02/09/10) -> budget titles strike back

[NDS] Honki de Manabu: LEC de Goukakuru - DS Gyouseishoshi (Square Enix)
[NDS] Nintama Rantarou: Gakunen Taikousen Puzzle! no Dan (Russel)
[NDS] Maru Goukaku: Shikaku Dasshu! Chuushoukigyou Shindanshi Shiken (Media5)
[NDS] Maru Goukaku: Shikaku Dasshu! Shouken Gaimuin Ni-Shu Shiken (Media5)

[PSP] Bleach: Heat the Soul 7 (SCE)
[PSP] White Breath: Perfect Edition (Kadokawa Shoten)
[PSP] NBA Live 10 [EA Best Hits] (Electronic Arts)
[PSP] Need for Speed: Shift [EA Best Hits] (Electronic Arts)

[WII] Metroid: Other M (Nintendo)

[PS3] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 [Reprint] (Square Enix)
[PS3] Bayonetta [Playstation 3 the Best] (Sega)
[PS3] FIFA 10: World Class Soccer [EA Best Hits] (Electronic Arts)
[PS3] NBA Live 10 [EA Best Hits] (Electronic Arts)
[PS3] Need for Speed: Shift [EA Best Hits] (Electronic Arts)

[360] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 [Reprint] (Square Enix)
[360] Bayonetta [Platinum Collection] (Sega)
[360] Halo 3: ODST [Platinum Collection] (Microsoft Game Studios)
[360] Left 4 Dead 2 [Platinum Collection] (Electronic Arts)

[PS2] FIFA 10: World Class Soccer [EA:SY! 1980] (Electronic Arts)
[PS2] Warriors Orochi [Playstation 2 the Best Reprint] (Koei Tecmo)
[PS2] Dynasty Warriors 6: Special [Playstation 2 the Best] (Koei Tecmo)
[PS2] Romance of the Three Kingdoms XI with Power-Up Kit [Koei Tecmo Teiban Series] (Koei Tecmo)

Metroid Other M will get outsold by Bayonetta reprint on PS3 im calling it!

 

[Chris1964]

Metroid Other M will get outsold by Bayonetta reprint on PS3 im calling it!

Don't call things like these.

 

[Souldriver]

The Wii release list :lol

 

[[Nintex]]

The Wii release list :lol

There's still people who deny it but that'll be what the release list looks like worldwide by the start of next year.

 

[farnham]

There's still people who deny it but that'll be what the release list looks like worldwide by the start of next year.

doubt it

there is enough shovelware to make the list look big

 

[Grimmy]

I could also see it being moved to 3DS.

Why would Capcom do that and hurt their on MHP3 sales? Based on previous titles, MHP3 will continue to sell well for most of 2011. Makes no sense to release another portable title and undercut their own sales. MH3G will be a console game.

 

[gcubed]

i can't wait to visit this thread around the launch of the 3ds, gonna be epic

 

[iifu]

Why would Capcom do that and hurt their on MHP3 sales? Based on previous titles, MHP3 will continue to sell well for most of 2011. Makes no sense to release another portable title and undercut their own sales. MH3G will be a console game.

I agree. MHP3 (PSP) --> MH3G (Wii) --> MHP3G (PSP/3DS?) seems more likely.

 

[Nirolak]

Why would Capcom do that and hurt their on MHP3 sales? Based on previous titles, MHP3 will continue to sell well for most of 2011. Makes no sense to release another portable title and undercut their own sales. MH3G will be a console game.

I don't see any real issue in releasing MH3G as a 3DS title at the end of 2011. It helps them establish the fanbase early on what's likely to become their most important platform.

I somehow doubt the people who are picking up MH3P a year late are going to be highly discouraged by the existence of a 3DS game, since the odds are good that they recently bought a PSP if they're buying the game that late.

 

[SlipperySlope]

so, the Wii is finally dying off in Japan? Anybody wanna predict when it'll hit 10k?

Worst case scenario, summer next year.

 

[Grimmy]

I don't see any real issue in releasing MH3G as a 3DS title at the end of 2011. It helps them establish the fanbase early on what's likely to become their most important platform.

I somehow doubt the people who are picking up MH3P a year late are going to be highly discouraged by the existence of a 3DS game, since the odds are good that they recently bought a PSP if they're buying the game that late.

I very highly doubt Capcom will wait a full 1.5 years before releasing MH3G, especially since none of the "G" games have ever been released so long after a non-G game. If an MH game comes on the 3DS, it will be an entirely different MH game, and that is possible for end of 2011. But MH3G is most likely gonna be a summer release for consoles.

 

[schuelma]

I very highly doubt Capcom will wait a full 1.5 years before releasing MH3G, especially since none of the "G" games have ever been released so long after a non-G game. .

Wait, unless I'm missing something, won't 1.5 years from MH Tri be this January? You think they are going to introduce and release 3G before then?

 

[Chris1964]

Wait, unless I'm missing something, won't 1.5 years from MH Tri be this January? You think they are going to introduce and release 3G before then?

If Monster Hunter 3G is scheduled for next summer it will be announced at Nintendo October conference.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Well, they did release MH3 on the Wii, I can see Capcom being stupid again to show MH3G for the Wii again and before MHP3 is out.

But hey, if you guys say its locked its locked. Heck, 3DS too. How could someone here suggest otherwise :lol

 

[Hero of Legend]

If Monster Hunter 3G is scheduled for next summer it will be announced at Nintendo September/Fall conference.

Fixed, because it was reported that Nintendo will unveil the date and price of the 3DS on September 29th in Japan.

http://www.andriasang.com/e/blog/2010/07/29/3ds_release_info_in_sept/

What better place? Plus, wasn't the '08 conference first hinted by a potential "3rd DS" announcement? Which of course proved correct and that's where the DSi was first shown.

 

[Leon S. Kennedy]

Its basically dead. Look at the release lists. Hardware sales could stay around 15-20K for a while I guess, but support wise its over.

Neogaf is always so full of hyperbolic crap

 

[schuelma]

Neogaf is always so full of hyperbolic crap

No seriously, look at the release list. I'm not exaggerating.

 

[charlequin]

Neogaf is always so full of hyperbolic crap

There is nothing remotely hyperbolic about schuelma's position.

 

[NeonZ]

Neogaf is always so full of hyperbolic crap

It's not really a hyperbole though. Saying that the Wii itself is dead might be wrong. The system itself still sells above 10k, but still very low numbers, and 1st party titles still sell... but, in Japan, 3rd party support is basically dead.

Look at upcoming titles, there's almost nothing outside of Nintendo's games. It supposedly has two high profile games for the future, but neither have any release dates.

 

[Nirolak]

No seriously, look at the release list. I'm not exaggerating.

Not only that, but the situation is so bad that between the terrible sales in Japan and the really bad exchange rate, Nintendo is actually losing money.

This is especially hilarious when you consider that every company from Capcom to EA is making money right now.

 

[Tmac]

so, the Wii is finally dying off in Japan? Anybody wanna predict when it'll hit 10k?

There's still a long road ahead of the Wii. Before what you sayed happen, Nintendo will reduce Wii price and heal Wii's demand until the next drop happen...

 

[Nirolak]

There's still a long road ahead of the Wii. Before what you sayed happen, Nintendo will reduce Wii price and heal Wii's demand until the next drop happen...

And what, lose even more money?

Unless Nintendo can tank the yen, I don't think this is a valid option right now.

 

[Dash Kappei]

The Wii release list :lol

After all these years there are still people who can't manage the difference between reprints and new releases -__-
Plenty of you guys, going by this thread's posts so far.

I'd say that out of all those platforms, next week the Wii has got the edge both quality wise AND new-releases wise.
So... yeah.

 

[Dalthien]

Not only that, but the situation is so bad that between the terrible sales in Japan and the really bad exchange rate, Nintendo is actually losing money.

This is especially hilarious when you consider that every company from Capcom to EA is making money right now.

I'm not sure if you were just light-heartedly joking or not, but your followup post seems to suggest that you were being serious.

From a quick 'n dirty appraisal of their Q1 report, it seems like they basically used Q1 to roll a bunch of foreign exchange losses all in to one period. Probably including some losses from recent quarters and also from future quarters. Much the same way that Microsoft rolled all of the extended RROD warranty losses into one quarter to just clear all of the losses off the books at once.

Nintendo lost $288M in Q1, but the foreign exchange losses were nearly a billion dollars just by itself. If they were just expecting the Yen to stay the same relative to the dollar and euro the rest of the year, then they would be expecting about a billion dollar loss every quarter the rest of the year (since they surely aren't planning on raising the price of the DS or Wii or their software).

But they're not. Even though they are already almost $300M in the hole to start this year, they are still expecting a full year net income of $2.3B. That means they are still expecting to make $2.6B in net profits over the next 9 months. Which clearly means that Q1 was a one-time extraordinary writedown to try to account for future exchange losses. This wasn't an OMG, we're going to lose a billion dollars in exchanges every quarter going forward!

Basically, the effect of all this is that yes, they still have room for future price cuts if they choose to go that route. Comparing their full-year profits of $2B+ in a negative light to the likes of EA and/or Capcom is rather silly. Which is why I'm still not sure if you were just joking or not.

 

[Leon S. Kennedy]

If saying the wii is dead in Japan isn't hyperbolic than I don't know what is. The third parties have always been terrible on the wii with a few notable exceptions. That is nothing new. The wii has always lived by first party titles and will continue that way. That means there will be dry spells. Dry spells on the wii are not the same as the death of the wii. Nintendo's losses have nothing to do with the sales of the wii in Japan.

 

[iidesuyo]

If saying the wii is dead in Japan isn't hyperbolic than I don't know what is. The third parties have always been terrible on the wii with a few notable exceptions. That is nothing new. The wii has always lived by first party titles and will continue that way. That means there will be dry spells. Dry spells on the wii are not the same as the death of the wii. Nintendo's losses have nothing to do with the sales of the wii in Japan.

The Wii is selling sub 20k, less than the PS3, when three years ago it outsold the PS3 by factor 7 in many weeks and often did 50k+. Most people expected the Wii to steamroll Japan like the DS did so the current situation is very disappointing for Nintendo.

If you predicted in late 2007 that the PS3 would outsell the Wii week after week by now, people would have given you that:

 

[Nirolak]

I'm not sure if you were just light-heartedly joking or not, but your followup post seems to suggest that you were being serious.

From a quick 'n dirty appraisal of their Q1 report, it seems like they basically used Q1 to roll a bunch of foreign exchange losses all in to one period. Probably including some losses from recent quarters and also from future quarters. Much the same way that Microsoft rolled all of the extended RROD warranty losses into one quarter to just clear all of the losses off the books at once.

Nintendo lost $288M in Q1, but the foreign exchange losses were nearly a billion dollars just by itself. If they were just expecting the Yen to stay the same relative to the dollar and euro the rest of the year, then they would be expecting about a billion dollar loss every quarter the rest of the year (since they surely aren't planning on raising the price of the DS or Wii or their software).

But they're not. Even though they are already almost $300M in the hole to start this year, they are still expecting a full year net income of $2.3B. That means they are still expecting to make $2.6B in net profits over the next 9 months. Which clearly means that Q1 was a one-time extraordinary writedown to try to account for future exchange losses. This wasn't an OMG, we're going to lose a billion dollars in exchanges every quarter going forward!

Basically, the effect of all this is that yes, they still have room for future price cuts if they choose to go that route. Comparing their full-year profits of $2B+ in a negative light to the likes of EA and/or Capcom is rather silly. Which is why I'm still not sure if you were just joking or not.

Oh, I didn't realize that was a full year write down. I thought something didn't add up with that whole picture.

In that case, then yes, there isn't a real issue on that front.

 

[Takao]

Could that Bleach game outsell Metroid? Those do around 100k first week, no?

I know the 2D releases of Metroid are pretty big, and that the Prime series isn't. So it'll be interesting to see what Other M does.

 

[jman2050]

The Wii is selling sub 20k, less than the PS3, when three years ago it outsold the PS3 by factor 7 in many weeks and often did 50k+. Most people expected the Wii to steamroll Japan like the DS did so the current situation is very disappointing for Nintendo.

If you predicted in late 2007 that the PS3 would outsell the Wii week after week by now, people would have given you that:

The bigger picture aside from the tired Wii vs PS3 stuff is that both of them are selling like ass and the entire Japanese game industry seems to be propped up entirely by the DS and Monster Hunter at this point.

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

Pretty nice for ACE. Sad to hear about its word of mouth though, could bite them in a future ACE as well as this one legs.

Not bad for Compile Heart's Neptune, 5k below Cross Edge but above Agarest Senki, Trinity Universe, Hakuouki and such CH-IF PS3 games.

Its interesting how PS3 has slowly turned into a good place for traditional B or C-level support (as in the same type/franchises/developers PS2 had). Still has to show it could be a good place for A-level, looking at you GT5.

Wasn't FFXIII good enough?

 

[duckroll]

Wasn't FFXIII good enough?

It sold significantly less than what FF titles sold on the PS2. That's the point here. The PS3 has now shown that for titles which sold around 200-500k on the PS2, it is actually possible to sell the same or even more units now on the PS3 (RgG, Level5SonyRPG, Sengoku Basara, and now ACE).

When we see an A-level title sell as much or more on the PS3 than that same type of title did on the PS2, then it would be considered an example.

 

[Grimmy]

If Monster Hunter 3G is scheduled for next summer it will be announced at Nintendo October conference.

Sorry what I meant was "announce". Otherwise the other part of my paragraph, "But MH3G is most likely gonna be a summer release for consoles," wouldn't make sense.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

It sold significantly less than what FF titles sold on the PS2. That's the point here. The PS3 has now shown that for titles which sold around 200-500k on the PS2, it is actually possible to sell the same or even more units now on the PS3 (RgG, Level5SonyRPG, Sengoku Basara, and now ACE).

When we see an A-level title sell as much or more on the PS3 than that same type of title did on the PS2, then it would be considered an example.

If you look at this in tie-ratio numbers it sold a whole lot more... even if you don't, the percentage drop isn't that drastic....


＿＿＿＿

ace is the 8th best first week ever for ps3

7. sengoku BASARA3・243,00
8. ACE: 220,000
9. Winning eleven 2010 218,000

 

[zerodayPopbot]

Metal Gear Solid 4 sold close to the PS2 entries in the series.

 

[duckroll]

I don't think I'm making myself clear enough. I'm not talking about a game selling badly. I'm just saying that for titles which are considered pretty huge in Japan, so far they have always sold less on the PS3 than they did on the PS2. MGS -> MGS2 -> MGS3 increased in sales with each title. MGS3 -> MGS4 was a significant drop. FFX and FFXII also so similar amounts on the PS2 (despite a HUGE difference in tie-ratio between the two titles), and FFXIII sold significantly less on the PS3.

This does not mean MGS4 and FFXIII did poorly given the circumstances. But this does mean that they were somewhat limited by the hardware's installed base, and it also shows that for big titles publishers have seen that in general you should expect less in sales on the PS3 compared to the PS2.

But what Ichigo is saying here is that now we've seen that for B-tier titles, publishers can expect the PS3 entries to do MORE. This means they can expand franchises on the PS3 beyond PS2-levels, which is very impressive. When a new PS3 entry of a game in a series sells as much or even more than that the series generally did on the PS2, it means the franchise can then grow. That's a very important note.

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

If Monster Hunter 3G is scheduled for next summer it will be announced at Nintendo October conference.

Nintendo haven't announced that they're even having an October conference. They didn't have one last year so I don't think we should be expecting one just yet (especially since they are due to announce their 3DS details on September 29th and not in October)

 

[Leon S. Kennedy]

The Wii is selling sub 20k, less than the PS3, when three years ago it outsold the PS3 by factor 7 in many weeks and often did 50k+. Most people expected the Wii to steamroll Japan like the DS did so the current situation is very disappointing for Nintendo.

The wii has had really bad weeks in other years as well and it has come back up when Nintendo releases a major first party game. The sales went up when wii party came out recently and now has dipped down again. I think wii sales will perk up again when Kirby and Donkey come come out and then dip again and then perk up a little for zelda then dip and come back up a bit for the finger pulse thing. I have no idea how much better Metroid can do than the primes, but I wouldn't consider it a major Nintendo release in Japan.

Obviously Nintendo would have liked it to emulate the DS, but consoles will never do as well as handhelds in Japan nowadays so Nintendo is better off making a high end handheld.

 

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

But what Ichigo is saying here is that now we've seen that for B-tier titles, publishers can expect the PS3 entries to do MORE. This means they can expand franchises on the PS3 beyond PS2-levels, which is very impressive. When a new PS3 entry of a game in a series sells as much or even more than that the series generally did on the PS2, it means the franchise can then grow. That's a very important note.

Very random personal idea here which all the upper-middle tier high sellers besides acer make it highly unlikely, but

Looking in terms of ACER sales, Is it possible the fact that ps3 is basically the no.1 blue-ray player plays into the issue?(aka, close to the entirety of the user base that this game appeals is also the most likely to own/want a blue-ray player?).

Whereas mass-hit games, Final Fantasy/MGS/GT5 game this is not necessary the case. If not, what is causing these upper middle tier titles to destroy the tie ratios seen from ps2, and sell the same, if not more.

 

[farnham]

As weak as Wii sales might be in the moment. its not like PS3 is going to overtake wii sales anytime soon either. Wii will get the Nintendo releases and those will sell millions like they used to and third parties will put nothing on the wii just like they did since the beginning of the generation.

Im really surprised that there are no PSP-Wii multiplats though. Porting cant be that hard between hardware that is almost in the same gen techwise

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Well i don't expect GT to change what is happening it's going to sell less than 4 in Japan to me.
Maybe if SE brought out another FF it could do numbers like FF X or XII of course it would have to be good and not a half ass game that FF XIII was.

 

[Osuwari]

Could that Bleach game outsell Metroid? Those do around 100k first week, no?

I know the 2D releases of Metroid are pretty big, and that the Prime series isn't. So it'll be interesting to see what Other M does.

2D metroid was only big in japan 24 years ago. the GBA games sold almost as bad as the primes (fusion did like 155k, ZM did less than 100k, mp1 did like 70k or more)

i expect Other M to be below 100k first week, unless something unprecedented happens and more people pick up the game.

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

Well i don't expect GT to change what is happening it's going to sell less than 4 in Japan to me.
Maybe if SE brought out another FF it could do numbers like FF X or XII of course it would have to be good and not a half ass game that FF XIII was.

Versus XIII?

 

[cvxfreak]

I really doubt we'll see MH3G now that the focus is on MHP3. Just a feeling in my gut. It'd seem like really old news by the time Capcom can market it. They're better off making an MHP3G.

Unless it were a PS3 game...

 

[duckroll]

Versus XIII?

I really don't know. I expect Versus to definitely do over a million, but I don't know if it can outsell FFXIII. There's really no real evidence that it will.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Months since 4m selling MHP2G was released - 29
Months since 1m selling MH3 was released - 13

Can anyone tell me a logical reason why would MH3G be mentioned at all before MHP3 is dated, released, hit major milestone and slowed down in sales?


PS3 A-tier games, I think it seems natural to assume its the more casual userbase that its lacking given how hardcore are lining up for impressive first weeks while legs are always short and why titles like Minna no Golf or Winning Eleven have suffered more than Final Fantasy or Metal Gear Solid.

 

[duckroll]

I think another very good reason for the lack of legs on big PS3 titles is the price. It's a lot easier for a retailer to feel good about ordering more DS or PSP games as they sell out when they're going for 30-40 bucks. It's a lot harder for a retailer to even entertain the thought of retaining shelf space for a month old game when the retail price is 80-90 bucks, and the used stores are being flooded with much cheaper versions.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Versus XIII?

I expect Versus to do good , over a million just not out sell XIII in Japan maybe if add some type online mini games it could do better in the west .
Should mention i hope Versus does do better than XIII so we can welcome our new overlord Nomura .

 

[Baki]

I don't think I'm making myself clear enough. I'm not talking about a game selling badly. I'm just saying that for titles which are considered pretty huge in Japan, so far they have always sold less on the PS3 than they did on the PS2. MGS -> MGS2 -> MGS3 increased in sales with each title. MGS3 -> MGS4 was a significant drop. FFX and FFXII also so similar amounts on the PS2 (despite a HUGE difference in tie-ratio between the two titles), and FFXIII sold significantly less on the PS3.

This does not mean MGS4 and FFXIII did poorly given the circumstances. But this does mean that they were somewhat limited by the hardware's installed base, and it also shows that for big titles publishers have seen that in general you should expect less in sales on the PS3 compared to the PS2.

But what Ichigo is saying here is that now we've seen that for B-tier titles, publishers can expect the PS3 entries to do MORE. This means they can expand franchises on the PS3 beyond PS2-levels, which is very impressive. When a new PS3 entry of a game in a series sells as much or even more than that the series generally did on the PS2, it means the franchise can then grow. That's a very important note.

Didn't MGS4 (including re-release) have something like an 800K LTD?

 

[Paracelsus]

Didn't MGS4 (including re-release) have something like an 800K LTD?

Just barely over 700k.

 

[BladeoftheImmortal]

I feel like it'll do gangbusters. It's a mainishline FF by the guy that did Kingdom Hearts and FFVII (Character designs). The style seems to be going back to the FFVII "dark and gritty badass steampunk" aesthetics also.

So I'm actually thinking the game will do better than FFXIII. 2 million easy I would say.

But, the Japanese market is crazy sometimes, so no telling how this'll go down really. I do agree with duckroll though, a million at least, but I see it doing a lot more.

Also, the hype is pretty killer for this outing, hype seems even bigger than FFXIII to me.

Just barely over 700k.

Including re-release it's at about 850k

http://www.japan-gamecharts.com/ps3.php